This dissertation collects three essays which deal with financial development in emerging markets. Owing to the appliance of different econometric methods on several data sets, insights in the behavior of and the impacts from financial markets are generated. Usually, the financial markets in emerging countries are characterized by the presence of credit constraints. In the first chapter it is shown that the financial development in 19th century Germany generally affected the economy in a positive way. Additionally, when different economic sectors are under investigation, it is revealed that the reaction due to financial development is not homogeneously across the sectors. A structural vector autoregression (VAR) framework is applied to a new annual data set from 1870 to 1912 that was initially compiled by Walther Hoffmann (1965). With respect to the literature, the most important difference of this analysis is the focus on different sectors in the economy and the interpretation of the results in the context of a two-sector growth model. It is revealed that all sectors were affected significantly by shocks from the banking system. Interestingly, this link is the strongest in sectors with small or non-tradable-goods-producing firms, such as construction, services, transportation and agriculture. In this regard, the growth patterns in 19th century Germany are reminiscent to those in today's emerging markets. The second chapter deals with the integration of the stock markets of mainland China with those of the United States and Hong Kong. Market integration and the resulting welfare gains as risk sharing, increasing investment and growth benefits has become a central topic in international finance research. This chapter investigates stock market integration after stock market liberalization which is assessed by spillover effects from Hong Kong and the United States to Chinese stock market indices. Dividing the sample in pre- and post-liberalization phases, causality in variance procedure is applied using four mainland China stock market indices, two indices of the stock exchange in Hong Kong and the Dow Jones Industrials index in the main part. Evidence of global and regional integration is found, but no evidence for increasing integration after the partial opening of the Chinese stock markets, neither with Hong Kong nor with the United States. Based on the idea presented in the first chapter, the third chapter examines one of today's emerging markets. As China is experiencing remarkable economic growth in the recent decades, it is analyzed if and to what extent the ongoing deregulations in the financial system contribute to this development. Structural VARs for gross domestic product as well as for sectoral output data in conjunction with two different bank lending variables are applied. It is indicated that China is positive affected by financial development and that all sectors benefit from domestic bank lending enlargements but to different degrees. Especially in the sectors where mainly state-owned enterprises are represented - such as construction, trade and transportation - shocks in bank lending have a strong positive influence while sectors where private enterprises are prevalent, seem to be more credit constrained.

Technological advancements have altered all aspects of human life, undeniably impacting all domains of commercial entities. Current digital technologies have the most pre-eminent influence on the supply chain management of corporations, irrespective of their diverse industry and operations. Remarkably, emerging markets with rapid economic growth, becoming appealing for foreign investments, are transmuting their supply chains with innovative hi-tech for smooth, effective, and efficient business processes and operations.The commencement of supply chain alterations in developed countries for facilitating international business has been part of various erstwhile studies that need more information on emerging markets. This thesis contributes to the prevailing research concerning the cited phenomenon by pursuing and expounding the answers to the research questions; "Considering the challenges and opportunities, how do digital technologies (blockchain, Cloud, IoT, AI) affect supply chain management and logistics in emerging markets?" and "What role does the supply chain's digital transformation play for businesses operating in emerging markets engaged in international business?".Fundamentally, the prime purpose of this research is to provide in-depth comprehension regarding the impending gratuities of supply chain revolutions availed by emergent markets expediting their international business with significant hindrances in the process. Also, this study uses a modified theoretical framework created under the idea of dynamic capabilities theory by Teece (2007) to illustrate the pertinent concepts. Furthermore, qualitative case studies of the syndicates from countries Iran, Pakistan and Bangladesh were conducted through semistructured interviews using an inductive approach under the interpretive methodology concept.The study demonstrates that despite market and industry, human errors and manual processes resulting in extra cost, time and energy limiting a firm's overall capacity have been the crucial challenges optimised by supply chain renovations. Lastly, the research provides the theoretical and managerial implications to define the topic in future regarding comparative analysis across industries and mitigating risks in international supply chains due to hi-tech, along with future recommendations.

Syfte: I takt med att hållbarhet blir allt viktigare, erhåller företagen en betydelsefull roll i arbetet för ett hållbart samhälle. Vilket medfört ett stort intresse för hur ESG-betyget påverkar de finansiella aspekterna av verksamheten i både företagsvärlden och den akademiska världen. Mycket av den tidigare forskningen har fokuserat på välutvecklade marknader när denna relation studerats, till följd av detta riktar denna studie in sig på tillväxtmarknader. I denna kontext har institutionella faktorer bidragit till att resultaten från tidigare forskning är motstridiga. Studiens syfte är att undersöka sambandet mellan ESG-betyg och finansiell prestation, samt hur financial slack påverkar denna relation på tillväxtmarknader. Metod: Studien har en deduktiv ansats och tillämpar en kvantitativ metod. Med hjälp av regressionsanalyser undersöks sambandet mellan ESG-betyg och finansiell prestation, samt hur financial slack påverkar det studerade sambandet på tillväxtmarknader. Urvalet består av 2 287 företag från 19 tillväxtmarknader fördelat över 11 sektorer. Samtliga data avser år 2022 och är hämtade från Refinitiv Eikons databas. Sekundärdata har analyserats genom univariat-, bivariat- och multivariat analys i statistikprogrammet IBM SPSS. Resultat och slutsats: Resultaten antyder ett positivt samband mellan ESG-betyg och ROE, samt mellan G-betyg och finansiell prestation. Samtidigt som inget samband observeras mellan E- och S-betyg och finansiell prestation. Vidare antyder resultaten att financial slack inte påverkar relationen mellan ESG-betyg och finansiell prestation. Examensarbetets bidrag: Studien bidrar med ny och ökad kunskap beträffande sambandet mellan ESG-betyg och finansiell prestation. Dels genom att en relativt outforskad kontext, i form av tillväxtmarknader studeras, dels då de tre dimensionerna av ESG och dess effekt på den finansiella prestationen undersöks var för sig. Förslag till framtida forskning: Med bakgrund mot studiens begränsningar föreslås att framtida forskare tillämpar en longitudinell forskningsdesign när sambandet mellan ESG-betyg och finansiell prestation studeras, detta för att fånga upp förändringar över tid. Ett ytterligare förslag är att använda marknadsbaserade mått för att mäta finansiell prestation. / Aim: As sustainability becomes increasingly important, companies are given a significant role in the work towards a sustainable society. Which has led to a great deal of interest in how the ESG-rating affects the financial aspects of the business in the corporate community as well as in the academia. Much of the previous research has focused on developed markets when studying this relationship, as a result this study focuses on emerging markets. In this context, institutional factors have contributed to conflicting results from previous research. The purpose of the study is to investigate the relationship between ESG-score and financial performance, as well as how financial slack affects this relationship in emerging markets. Method: The study has a deductive research approach and uses a quantitative method. Using regression analyses, the relationship between ESG-score and financial performance is examined, as well as how financial slack affects this relationship in emerging markets. The sample consists of 2 287 companies from 19 emerging markets, operating in 11 different sectors. All data refer to the year 2022 and are retrieved from Refinitiv Eikon's database. The secondary data has been analyzed through univariate, bivariate and multivariate analysis in the statistics program IBM SPSS. Results and conclusions: The results indicate a positive relationship between ESG-score and ROE, as well as between G-score and financial performance. Meanwhile, no relationship is observed between E-, and S-score and financial performance. Furthermore, the results suggest that financial slack does not affect the relationship between ESG-score and financial performance. Contribution of the thesis: The study contributes with new and increased knowledge regarding the relationship between ESG-score and financial performance. By studying a relatively unexplored context, in the form of emerging markets, and by examining the three dimensions of ESG and its effect on financial performance individually. Suggestions for future research: Due to the study's limitations, it is suggested that future researchers apply a longitudinal study design when investigating the relationship between ESG-score and financial performance, so that changes over time can be observed. Another suggestion is to use market-based key ratios to measure financial performance.

Summaries in English and Afrikaans / The first fully enclosed, airconditioned shopping mall in a black township in South Africa opened in 1979 in Umlazi, outside Durban. The provincial development corporation (lthala) spearheaded emerging market shopping centre development in KwaZulu-Natal to the extent that, with the involvement of the private sector, substantial knowledge and experience have been gained in shopping centre development in emerging markets over the past two decades. The study focuses on black shopping patterns and household income and expenditure in townships and rural areas in KwaZulu-Natal. The assessments include: • empirical trade areas; • geodemographics and geographic infonnation systems (GIS); • buying power modelling; • market share estimates; • retail hierarchies; • viability and feasibility studies; • centre design (including taxi rank developments); • informal trading; and • tenant mix; location; financing and research strategies. The study fonnulates a universal buying power model for KwaZulu-Natal that transcends ethnic and geographic classifications, to enhance, with the aid of computer technology and census information, the accuracy and cost effectiveness of viability and feasibility studies in shopping centre development. An IntegJ.-ated Commercial Assessment Model (JCAM) is formulated whereby demographic data of a trade area and financial feasibility parameters are integrated to assess the viability of a shopping centre. The study concludes that although there are many unique features associated with shopping centres in emerging market locations, the :fundamental principles that apply all over the world in shopping centre development, also apply to emerg1ng markets in KwaZulu-Natal. Relatively low disposable incomes limit the sustainable size of the emerging market shopping centre. Shopping centre locations are linked to the interdependence on public transportation by emerging market patrons. Factors conducive fo-r shopping centre development, such as high private vehicle ownership, high disposable income, willing retailers, effective town planning and state assistance, have not yet reached levels that would benefit the widespread development of shopping centres in townships. Emerging market shopping centre developments in the central business districts of rural towns, however, have been generally very successful and are setting the benchmarks in South Africa. / Die opening van die eerste ingeslote winkelsentrum met sentrale lugreeling in 'n swart woonbuurt in Suid-Afrika, het in 1979 in Umlazi (buite Durban) plaasgevind. Die provinsiale ontwikkelingskorporasie (Ithala) het aan die spits van winkelsentrum ontwikkeling in opkomende markte in KwaZulu-Natal gestaan. Die toetrede van die privaatsektor tot die mark het verder ook substansieel bygedra tot kennnis en ondervinding in winkelsentrumontwikkeling oor twee dekades in opkomende markte. Hierdie studie fokus op swart kooppatrone en huisgesin inkomste and uitgawes in swart woonbuurtes en landelike gebiede in KwaZulu-Natal. Die ondersoeke sluit die volgende in: • empiriese handelsgebiede; • geodemografie en geografiese inligtingstelsels (GIS); • koopkrag modellering; • markaandeel skatting; • kleinhandel hierargie; • lewensvatbaarheid en uitvoerbaarheid studies; • sentrum ontwerp (ingesluit taxi staanplek ontwikkelings); • informele handel; en huurdersamestelling, ligging. finansiering en navorsingsstrategie. Die studie formuleer 'n universele koopkrag model vir KwaZulu-Natal wat etniese en geografiese klassifikasies oorskry en met die hulp van 'n rekenaar en sensus inligling, die akkuraatheid en koste effektiwiteit van lewensvatbaarheid en uitvoerbaarheid studies in winkelsentrum ontwikkeling, moontlik maak. 'n Geintegreerde kommersiele evalueringsmodel (GKEM) is geformuleer waarmee demografiese data van 'n handelsgebied en finansiele data geintegreer word om die lewensvatbaarbeid van 'n winkelsentmm te evalueer. Die studie kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat, ongeag die baie unieke eienskappe van winkelsentrums in opkomende markte, die fundamentele reels wat reg oor die wereld met winkelsentrumontwikkeling toegepas word, ook vir die opkomende markte van KwaZulu-Natal geld. Relatief lae besteebare inkomstes beperk die drakrag grootte van winkelsentmms in opkomende markte. Winkelsentrumliggings word verbind met die interafhanklikheid van publieke vervoer van die marksegment. Faktore gunstig vir winkelsentrumontwikkeling soos hoe privaatmotorbesit, hoe besteebare inkomste, gewi1lige kleinhandelaars, effektiewe stadsbeplanning en staatsondersteuning het nog nie vlakke bereik wat die grootskaalse ontwikkeling van winkelsentrums in swart woonbuurtes bevoordeel nie. Winkelsentrumontwikkeling in die sentrale sakegebiede van landelike dorpe is wel, in die algemeen, suksesvol en stel tans die standaard vir winkelsentrumontwikkeling vir opkomende markte in Suid Africa. / Geography / D. Litt. et Phil. (Geography)

Summaries in English and Afrikaans / Key terms in English and Afrikaans / Titles in English and Afrikaans / The first fully enclosed, airconditioned shopping mall in a black township in South Africa opened in 1979 in Umlazi, outside Durban. The provincial development corporation (Ithala) spearheaded emerging market shopping centre development in KwaZulu-Natal to the extent that, with the involvement of the private sector, substantial knowledge and experience have been gained in shopping centre development in emerging markets over the past two decades. The study focuses on black shopping patterns and household income and expenditure in townships and rural areas in KwaZulu-Natal. The assessments include: • empirical trade areas; • geodemographics and geographic information systems (GIS); • buying power modelling; • market share estimates; • retail hierarchies; • viability and feasibility studies; • centre design (including taxi rank developments); • informal trading; and • tenant mix; location; financing and research strategies. The study formulates a universal buying power model for KwaZulu-Natal that transcends ethnic and geographic classifications, to enhance, with the aid of computer technology and census information, the accuracy and cost effectiveness of viability and feasibility studies in shopping centre development. An Integrated Commercial Assessment Model (ICAM) is formulated whereby demographic data of a trade area and financial feasibility parameters are integrated to assess the viability of a shopping centre. The study concludes that although there are many unique features associated with shopping centres in emerging market locations, the fundamental principles that apply all over the world in shopping centre development, also apply to emerging markets in KwaZulu-Natal. Relatively low disposable incomes limit the sustainable size of the emerging market shopping centre. Shopping centre locations are linked to the interdependence on public transportation by emerging market patrons. Factors conducive for shopping centre development, such as high private vehicle ownership, high disposable income, willing retailers, effective town planning and state assistance, have not yet reached levels that would benefit the widespread development of shopping centres in townships. Emerging market shopping centre developments in the central business districts of rural towns, however, have been generally very successful and are setting the benchmarks in South / Die opening van die eerste ingeslote winkelsentrum met sentrale lugreeling in 'n swart woonbuurt in Suid-Afrika, het in 1979 in Umlazi (buite Durban) plaasgevind. Die provinsiale ontwikkelingskorporasie (Ithala) het aan die spits van winkelsentrum ontwikkeling in opkomende markte in KwaZulu-Natal gestaan. Die toetrede van die privaatsektor tot die mark het verder ook substansieel bygedra tot kennis en ondervinding in winkelsentrumontwikkeling oor twee dekades in opkomende markte. Hierdie studie fokus op swart kooppatrone en huisgesin inkomste and uitgawes in swart woonbuurtes en landelike gebiede in KwaZulu-Natal. Die ondersoeke sluit die volgende in: • empiriese handelsgebiede; • geodemografie en geografiese inligtingstelsels (GIS); • koopkrag modellering; • markaandeel skatting; • kleinhandel hierargie; • lewensvatbaarheid en uitvoerbaarheid studies; • sentrum ontwerp (ingesluit taxi staanplek ontwikkelings); • informele handel; en • huurdersamestelling, ligging, finansiering en navorsingsstrategie. Die studie formuleer 'n universele koopkrag model vir KwaZulu-Natal wat etniese en geografiese klassifikasies oorskry en met die hulp van 'n rekenaar en sensus inligting, die akkuraatheid en koste effektiwiteit van lewensvatbaarheid en uitvoerbaarheid studies in winkelsentrum ontwikkeling, moontlik maak. 'n Geintegreerde kommersiele evalueringsmodel (GKEM) is geformuleer waarmee demografiese data van 'n handelsgebied en finansiele data geintegreer word on die lewensvatbaarheid van 'n winkelsentrum te evalueer. Die studie kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat, ongeag die baie unieke eienskappe van winkelsentrums in opkomende markte, die fundamentele reels wat reg oor die wereld met winkelsentrumontwikkeling toegepas word, ook vir die opkomende markte van KwaZulu-Natal geld. Relatief lae besteebare inkomstes beperk die drakrag grootte van winkelsentrums in opkomende markte. Winkelsentrumliggings word verbind met die interafhanklikheid van publieke vervoer van die marksegment. F aktore gunstig vir winkelsentrumontwikkeling soos hoe privaat motorbesit, hoe besteebare inkomste, gewillige kleinhandelaars, effektiewe stadsbeplanning en staatsondersteuning het nog nie vlakke bereik wat die grootskaalse ontwikkeling van winkelsentrums in swart woonbuurtes bevoordeel nie. Winkelsentrumontwikkeling in die sentrale sakegebiede van landelike dorpe is wel, in die algemeen, suksesvol en stel tans die standaard vir winkelsentrumontwikkeling vir opkomende markte in Suid Africa / Geography and Environmental Studies / D.Litt. et Phil. (Geography)

Cette thèse s'intéresse aux questions d'accès aux marchés financiers dans les économies émergentes et en développement. La première partie donne un aperçu général des conséquences macroéconomiques de l'un des régimes de politique monétaire le plus favorable au marché - le ciblage d'inflation - en utilisant le cadre d'analyse de la méta-analyse. La deuxième partie analyse le risque et la stabilité des marchés obligataires des États. La troisième et dernière partie examine les effets disciplinaires résultant de la participation aux marchés obligataires souverains. Plusieurs résultats émergent. Au chapitre 1, les résultats indiquent que la littérature sur les effets macroéconomiques du ciblage d'inflation est sujette à des biais de publication. Après avoir purgé ces biais, le véritable effet du ciblage d'inflation reste statistiquement et économiquement significatif à la fois sur le niveau de l'inflation et la volatilité de la croissance économique, mais ne l’est pas sur la volatilité de l'inflation ou le taux de croissance économique réel. Aussi, les caractéristiques des études déterminent l’hétérogénéité des résultats de l'impact du ciblage d’inflation dans les études primaires. Le chapitre 2 montre que l'adoption d'un régime de ciblage d'inflation réduit le risque souverain dans les pays émergents. Cependant, cet effet varie systématiquement en fonction du cycle économique, de la politique budgétaire suivie, du niveau de développement et de la durée dans le ciblage. Le chapitre 3 montre que les envois de fonds des migrants, contrairement aux flux d'aide au développement, permettent de réduire le risque souverain. Cette réduction est plus marquée dans un pays avec un système financier moins développé, un degré d'ouverture commerciale élevé, un espace budgétaire faible et sans effet dans les pays dépendants des envois de fonds. Le chapitre 4 montre que les pays ayant des contrats d’échange sur risque de crédit sur leurs dettes sont plus sujets à des crises de dette. Il constate également que cet effet reste sensible aux caractéristiques structurelles des pays. Le chapitre 5 montre que la participation aux marchés obligataires de long terme (domestiques et internationaux) encourage les gouvernements des pays en développement à accroître leurs recettes fiscales intérieures. Il révèle également que l'effet favorable dépend du niveau des recettes de seigneuriage, d’endettement, du régime de change, du niveau de développement économique, du degré d’ouverture financière, et du développement financier. Le chapitre 6 montre que la présence de marchés obligataires domestiques, de long terme et liquides réduit considérablement le degré de dollarisation financière dans les pays en développement. Cet effet est plus important dans les pays avec un régime monétaire de ciblage d’inflation ou de change flottant, et à règles budgétaires. Enfin, il constate que la présence de marchés obligataires domestiques réduit la dollarisation financière à travers la baisse du niveau et de la variabilité de l'inflation, de la variabilité du taux de change nominal, et des revenus de seigneuriage. / This thesis focuses on some critical issues of the access to international financial markets in developing and emerging market economies. The first part provides a general overview of the macroeconomic consequences of one of the most market-friendly monetary policy regime—inflation targeting—using a meta-regression analysis framework. The second part analyses government bond market risk and stability. The last part investigates the disciplining effects of government bond market participation—bond vigilantes. In Chapter 1, the results indicate that the literature of the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting adoption is subject to publication bias. After purging the publication bias, the true effect of inflation targeting appears to be statistically and economically meaningful both on the level of inflation and the volatility of economic growth, but not statistically significant on inflation volatility or real GDP growth. Third, differences in the impact of inflation targeting found in primary studies can be explained by differences in studies characteristics including the sample characteristics, the empirical identification strategies, the choice of the control variables, inflation targeting implementation parameters, as well as the study period and some parameters related to the publication process. Chapter 2 shows that the adoption of inflation targeting regime reduces sovereign debt risk in emerging countries. However, this relative advantage of inflation targeting—compared to money or exchange rate targeting—varies systematically depending on the business cycle, the fiscal policy stance, the level of development, and the duration of countries’ experience with inflation targeting. Chapter 3 shows that remittances inflows significantly reduce bond spreads, whereas development aid does not. It also highlights that the effect of remittances on spreads arises in a regimes of lower developed financial system, higher degree of trade openness, lower fiscal space, and exclusively in non-remittances dependent regimes. Chapter 4 indicates that countries with credit default swaps contracts on their debts have a higher probability of experiencing a debt crisis, compared to countries without credit default swaps contracts. It also finds that the impact of credit default swaps initiation is sensitive to several structural characteristics including the level of economic development, the country creditworthiness at the timing of credit default swaps introduction, the public sector transparency, the central bank independence; and to the duration of countries’ experiences with credit default swaps transactions. Chapter 5 shows that bond markets participation encourages government in developing countries to increase their domestic tax revenue mobilization. Finally, it finds that bond markets participation improves the mobilization of internal taxes, compared to tax on international trade, and reduces their instability. Chapter 6 shows that the presence of domestic bond markets significantly reduces financial dollarization in domestic bond markets countries. This effect is larger for inflation targeting countries compared to non-inflation targeting countries, is apparent exclusively in a non-pegged exchange rate regime, and is larger when there is a fiscal rule that constrains the conduct of fiscal policy. Finally, it finds that the induced drop in inflation rate and its variability, nominal exchange rate variability, and seigniorage revenue are potential transmission mechanisms through which the presence of domestic bond markets reduces financial dollarization in domestic bond markets countries.

Summaries in English and Afrikaans / The first fully enclosed, airconditioned shopping mall in a black township in South Africa opened in 1979 in Umlazi, outside Durban. The provincial development corporation (lthala) spearheaded emerging market shopping centre development in KwaZulu-Natal to the extent that, with the involvement of the private sector, substantial knowledge and experience have been gained in shopping centre development in emerging markets over the past two decades. The study focuses on black shopping patterns and household income and expenditure in townships and rural areas in KwaZulu-Natal. The assessments include: • empirical trade areas; • geodemographics and geographic infonnation systems (GIS); • buying power modelling; • market share estimates; • retail hierarchies; • viability and feasibility studies; • centre design (including taxi rank developments); • informal trading; and • tenant mix; location; financing and research strategies. The study fonnulates a universal buying power model for KwaZulu-Natal that transcends ethnic and geographic classifications, to enhance, with the aid of computer technology and census information, the accuracy and cost effectiveness of viability and feasibility studies in shopping centre development. An IntegJ.-ated Commercial Assessment Model (JCAM) is formulated whereby demographic data of a trade area and financial feasibility parameters are integrated to assess the viability of a shopping centre. The study concludes that although there are many unique features associated with shopping centres in emerging market locations, the :fundamental principles that apply all over the world in shopping centre development, also apply to emerg1ng markets in KwaZulu-Natal. Relatively low disposable incomes limit the sustainable size of the emerging market shopping centre. Shopping centre locations are linked to the interdependence on public transportation by emerging market patrons. Factors conducive fo-r shopping centre development, such as high private vehicle ownership, high disposable income, willing retailers, effective town planning and state assistance, have not yet reached levels that would benefit the widespread development of shopping centres in townships. Emerging market shopping centre developments in the central business districts of rural towns, however, have been generally very successful and are setting the benchmarks in South Africa. / Die opening van die eerste ingeslote winkelsentrum met sentrale lugreeling in 'n swart woonbuurt in Suid-Afrika, het in 1979 in Umlazi (buite Durban) plaasgevind. Die provinsiale ontwikkelingskorporasie (Ithala) het aan die spits van winkelsentrum ontwikkeling in opkomende markte in KwaZulu-Natal gestaan. Die toetrede van die privaatsektor tot die mark het verder ook substansieel bygedra tot kennnis en ondervinding in winkelsentrumontwikkeling oor twee dekades in opkomende markte. Hierdie studie fokus op swart kooppatrone en huisgesin inkomste and uitgawes in swart woonbuurtes en landelike gebiede in KwaZulu-Natal. Die ondersoeke sluit die volgende in: • empiriese handelsgebiede; • geodemografie en geografiese inligtingstelsels (GIS); • koopkrag modellering; • markaandeel skatting; • kleinhandel hierargie; • lewensvatbaarheid en uitvoerbaarheid studies; • sentrum ontwerp (ingesluit taxi staanplek ontwikkelings); • informele handel; en huurdersamestelling, ligging. finansiering en navorsingsstrategie. Die studie formuleer 'n universele koopkrag model vir KwaZulu-Natal wat etniese en geografiese klassifikasies oorskry en met die hulp van 'n rekenaar en sensus inligling, die akkuraatheid en koste effektiwiteit van lewensvatbaarheid en uitvoerbaarheid studies in winkelsentrum ontwikkeling, moontlik maak. 'n Geintegreerde kommersiele evalueringsmodel (GKEM) is geformuleer waarmee demografiese data van 'n handelsgebied en finansiele data geintegreer word om die lewensvatbaarbeid van 'n winkelsentmm te evalueer. Die studie kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat, ongeag die baie unieke eienskappe van winkelsentrums in opkomende markte, die fundamentele reels wat reg oor die wereld met winkelsentrumontwikkeling toegepas word, ook vir die opkomende markte van KwaZulu-Natal geld. Relatief lae besteebare inkomstes beperk die drakrag grootte van winkelsentmms in opkomende markte. Winkelsentrumliggings word verbind met die interafhanklikheid van publieke vervoer van die marksegment. Faktore gunstig vir winkelsentrumontwikkeling soos hoe privaatmotorbesit, hoe besteebare inkomste, gewi1lige kleinhandelaars, effektiewe stadsbeplanning en staatsondersteuning het nog nie vlakke bereik wat die grootskaalse ontwikkeling van winkelsentrums in swart woonbuurtes bevoordeel nie. Winkelsentrumontwikkeling in die sentrale sakegebiede van landelike dorpe is wel, in die algemeen, suksesvol en stel tans die standaard vir winkelsentrumontwikkeling vir opkomende markte in Suid Africa. / Geography / D. Litt. et Phil. (Geography)

Summaries in English and Afrikaans / Key terms in English and Afrikaans / Titles in English and Afrikaans / The first fully enclosed, airconditioned shopping mall in a black township in South Africa opened in 1979 in Umlazi, outside Durban. The provincial development corporation (Ithala) spearheaded emerging market shopping centre development in KwaZulu-Natal to the extent that, with the involvement of the private sector, substantial knowledge and experience have been gained in shopping centre development in emerging markets over the past two decades. The study focuses on black shopping patterns and household income and expenditure in townships and rural areas in KwaZulu-Natal. The assessments include: • empirical trade areas; • geodemographics and geographic information systems (GIS); • buying power modelling; • market share estimates; • retail hierarchies; • viability and feasibility studies; • centre design (including taxi rank developments); • informal trading; and • tenant mix; location; financing and research strategies. The study formulates a universal buying power model for KwaZulu-Natal that transcends ethnic and geographic classifications, to enhance, with the aid of computer technology and census information, the accuracy and cost effectiveness of viability and feasibility studies in shopping centre development. An Integrated Commercial Assessment Model (ICAM) is formulated whereby demographic data of a trade area and financial feasibility parameters are integrated to assess the viability of a shopping centre. The study concludes that although there are many unique features associated with shopping centres in emerging market locations, the fundamental principles that apply all over the world in shopping centre development, also apply to emerging markets in KwaZulu-Natal. Relatively low disposable incomes limit the sustainable size of the emerging market shopping centre. Shopping centre locations are linked to the interdependence on public transportation by emerging market patrons. Factors conducive for shopping centre development, such as high private vehicle ownership, high disposable income, willing retailers, effective town planning and state assistance, have not yet reached levels that would benefit the widespread development of shopping centres in townships. Emerging market shopping centre developments in the central business districts of rural towns, however, have been generally very successful and are setting the benchmarks in South / Die opening van die eerste ingeslote winkelsentrum met sentrale lugreeling in 'n swart woonbuurt in Suid-Afrika, het in 1979 in Umlazi (buite Durban) plaasgevind. Die provinsiale ontwikkelingskorporasie (Ithala) het aan die spits van winkelsentrum ontwikkeling in opkomende markte in KwaZulu-Natal gestaan. Die toetrede van die privaatsektor tot die mark het verder ook substansieel bygedra tot kennis en ondervinding in winkelsentrumontwikkeling oor twee dekades in opkomende markte. Hierdie studie fokus op swart kooppatrone en huisgesin inkomste and uitgawes in swart woonbuurtes en landelike gebiede in KwaZulu-Natal. Die ondersoeke sluit die volgende in: • empiriese handelsgebiede; • geodemografie en geografiese inligtingstelsels (GIS); • koopkrag modellering; • markaandeel skatting; • kleinhandel hierargie; • lewensvatbaarheid en uitvoerbaarheid studies; • sentrum ontwerp (ingesluit taxi staanplek ontwikkelings); • informele handel; en • huurdersamestelling, ligging, finansiering en navorsingsstrategie. Die studie formuleer 'n universele koopkrag model vir KwaZulu-Natal wat etniese en geografiese klassifikasies oorskry en met die hulp van 'n rekenaar en sensus inligting, die akkuraatheid en koste effektiwiteit van lewensvatbaarheid en uitvoerbaarheid studies in winkelsentrum ontwikkeling, moontlik maak. 'n Geintegreerde kommersiele evalueringsmodel (GKEM) is geformuleer waarmee demografiese data van 'n handelsgebied en finansiele data geintegreer word on die lewensvatbaarheid van 'n winkelsentrum te evalueer. Die studie kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat, ongeag die baie unieke eienskappe van winkelsentrums in opkomende markte, die fundamentele reels wat reg oor die wereld met winkelsentrumontwikkeling toegepas word, ook vir die opkomende markte van KwaZulu-Natal geld. Relatief lae besteebare inkomstes beperk die drakrag grootte van winkelsentrums in opkomende markte. Winkelsentrumliggings word verbind met die interafhanklikheid van publieke vervoer van die marksegment. F aktore gunstig vir winkelsentrumontwikkeling soos hoe privaat motorbesit, hoe besteebare inkomste, gewillige kleinhandelaars, effektiewe stadsbeplanning en staatsondersteuning het nog nie vlakke bereik wat die grootskaalse ontwikkeling van winkelsentrums in swart woonbuurtes bevoordeel nie. Winkelsentrumontwikkeling in die sentrale sakegebiede van landelike dorpe is wel, in die algemeen, suksesvol en stel tans die standaard vir winkelsentrumontwikkeling vir opkomende markte in Suid Africa / Geography and Environmental Studies / D.Litt. et Phil. (Geography)

This thesis brings new evidence on different strands of the literature in macro-finance, international economics and macroeconometrics. The first two chapters combine both theoretical models and empirical techniques to deepen the analysis of important economic phenomena such as the effects of economic policy uncertainty on financial markets, and convergence between emerging market economies and advanced economies on these markets. The third chapter of the thesis, which is co-authored with Hafedh Bouakez, contributes to the literature on the identification of news shocks about future productivity. In the first chapter, I study the effect of monetary and fiscal policy uncertainty on nominal U.S. government bond yields and premiums. I use a New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model featuring recursive preferences, and both real and nominal rigidities. Policy uncertainty in the DSGE model is defined as a mean-preserving spread of the policy shock distributions. My results show that: (i) When the economy is subject to unpredictable shocks to the volatility of policy instruments, the level of the median yield curve is lower, its slope increases and risk premiums decrease relative to an economy with no stochastic volatility. This negative effect on the level of yields and premiums is due to the asymmetric impact of positive versus negative shocks; (ii) A typical policy risk shock increases yields at all maturities. This is because the fall in yields triggered by higher demand for bonds by households, in order to hedge against higher predicted consumption volatility, is outweighed by the increase in yields due to higher inflation risk premiums. Finally, I use several empirical measures economic policy uncertainty in a structural VAR model to show that the above effects of policy risk shocks on yields are consistent empirical evidence. Chapter 2 looks at the market for government bonds in 12 advanced economies and 8 emerging market economies, during the period 1999-2012, and consider the question of whether or not there has been any convergence of risk between emerging market and advanced economies. I distinguish between default risk and other types of risk, such as inflation, liquidity and exchange rate risk. I make the theoretical case that forward risk premium differentials can be used to distinguish default risk and other risks. I then construct forward risk premium differentials and use these to make the empirical case that there has been little convergence associated with the other types of risk. I also show that differences in countries' macroeconomic fundamentals and political risk play an important role in explaining the large "non-default" risk differentials observed between emerging and advanced economies. Chapter 3 proposes a novel strategy to identify anticipated and unanticipated technology shocks, which leads to results that are consistent with the predictions of conventional new-Keynesian models. It shows that the failure of many empirical studies to generate consistent responses to these shocks is due to impurities in the available TFP series, which lead to an incorrect identification of unanticipated technology shocks---whose estimated effects are inconsistent with the interpretation of these disturbances as supply shocks. This, in turn, contaminates the identification of news shocks. My co-author, Hafedh Bouakez, and I propose an agnostic identification strategy that allows TFP to be affected by both technological and non-technological shocks, and identifies unanticipated technology shocks via sign restrictions on the response of inflation. The results show that the effects of both surprise TFP shocks and news shocks are generally consistent with the predictions of standard new-Keynesian models. In particular, the inflation puzzle documented in previous studies vanishes under the novel empirical strategy. / Cette thèse présente de nouveaux résultats sur différentes branches de la littérature en macro-finance, économie internationale et macro-économétrie. Les deux premiers chapitres combinent des modèles théoriques et des techniques empiriques pour approfondir l’étude de phénomènes économiques importants tels que les effets de l’incertitude liée aux politiques économiques sur les marchés financiers et la convergence entre les pays émergents et les pays avancés sur ces marchés. Le troisième chapitre, qui est le fruit d’une collaboration avec Hafedh Bouakez, contribue à la littérature sur l’identification des chocs anticipés sur la productivité future. Dans le premier chapitre, j’étudie l’effet de l’incertitude relative aux politiques monétaire et fiscale sur les rendements et les primes de risque associés aux actifs nominaux du gouvernement des États-Unis. J’utilise un modèle d’équilibre stochastique et dynamique de type néo-Keynesien prenant en compte des préférences récursives des agents et des rigidités réelles et nominales. En utilisant un modèle VAR structurel. L’incertitude relative aux politiques économiques est définie comme étant une expansion de la distribution des chocs de politique, expansion au cours de laquelle la moyenne de la distribution reste inchangée. Mes résultats montrent que : (i) Lorsque l’économie est sujette à des chocs imprévisibles sur la volatilité des instruments de politique, le niveau médian de la courbe des rendements baisse de 8,56 points de base, sa pente s’accroît de 13,5 points de base et les primes de risque baissent en moyenne de 0.21 point de base. Cet effet négatif sur le niveau de rendements et les primes de risque est dû à l’impact asymétrique des chocs de signes opposés mais de même amplitude; (ii) Un choc positif à la volatilité des politiques économiques entraîne une hausse des rendements pour toutes les durées de maturité. Cet effet s’explique par le comportement des ménages qui, à la suite du choc, augmentent leur demande de bons dans le but de se prémunir contre les fortes fluctuations espérées au niveau de la consommation, ce qui entraîne des pressions à la baisse sur les rendements. De façon simultanée, ces ménages requièrent une hausse des taux d’intérêt en raison d’une espérance d’inflation future plus grande. Les analyses montrent que le premier effet est dominant, entraînant donc la hausse des rendements observée. Enfin, j’utilise plusieurs mesures empiriques d’incertitude de politiques économiques et un modèle VAR structurel pour montrer les résultats ci-dessus sont conformes avec les faits empiriques. Le Chapitre 2 explore le marché des bons du gouvernement de 12 pays avancés et 8 pays émergents, pendant la période 1999-2012, et analyses la question de savoir s’il y a eu une quelconque convergence du risque associé à ces actifs entre les deux catégories de pays. Je fais une distinction entre risque de défaut et autres types de risque, comme ceux liés au risque d’inflation, de liquidité ou de change. Je commence par montrer théoriquement que le différentiel au niveau des primes de risque « forward » entre les deux pays peut être utilisé pour faire la distinction entre le risque « forward » et les utilise pour montrer qu’il est difficile de conclure que ces autres types de risque dans les pays émergents ont convergé vers les niveaux différents de risque politique, jouent un rôle important dans l’explication des différences de primes de risque – autres que celles associées au risque de défaut– entre les pays émergents et les pays avancés. Le Chapitre 3 propose une nouvelle stratégie d’identification des chocs technologiques anticipés et non-anticipés, qui conduit à des résultats similaires aux prédictions des modèles néo-Keynésiens conventionnels. Il montre que l’incapacité de plusieurs méthodes empiriques à générer des résultats rejoignant la théorie est due à l’impureté des données existences sur la productivité totale des facteurs (TFP), conduisant à mauvaise identification des chocs technologiques non-anticipés-dont les effets estimés ne concordent pas avec l’interprétation de tels chocs comme des chocs d’offre. Ce problème, à son tour, contamine l’identification des chocs technologiques anticipés. Mon co-auteur, Hafedh Bouakez, et moi proposons une stratégie d’identification agnostique qui permet à la TFP d’être affectée de façon contemporaine par deux chocs surprises (technologique et non technologique), le premier étant identifié en faisant recours aux restrictions de signe sur la réponse de l’inflation. Les résultats montrent que les effets des chocs technologiques anticipés et non-anticipés concordent avec les prédictions des modèles néo-Keynésiens standards. En particulier, le puzzle rencontré dans les travaux précédents concernant les effets d’un choc non-anticipé sur l’inflation disparaît lorsque notre nouvelle stratégie est employée.

This dissertation thesis consists of three essays on new EU foreign exchange markets (FX), i.e. the Czech koruna, Polish zloty and Hungarian forint. In the first two essays, the impact of foreign macroeconomic news announcements and central banks' monetary policy settings on the value and volatility of examined exchange rates is analyzed. In the third chapter, the conditional comovements and volatility spillovers on new EU FX markets is examined. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the existing empirical literature by providing new evidence of the examined currencies during periods, which have not been examined yet (after the Global financial crisis (GFC), during the EU debt crisis and during currency interventions in the Czech Republic). The first essay (Chapter 2) examines the impact of Eurozone/Germany and US macroeconomic news announcements and monetary policy settings of the ECB and the Fed on the value of new EU member states' currencies. It is a complex analysis of 1-minute intraday dataset performed by event study methodology (ESM). We observe different reactions of exchange rates in pair with the US dollar on the US macroeconomic announcements and Euro-expressed FX rates on Germany macro news during the EU debt crisis and after it. We also provide evidence of leaking news, showing...