Įvairių sričių reiškinių matematiniai modeliai apima daug faktorių, kurie yra priklausomi nuo laiko, o taip pat pastebima jų tarpusavio priklausomybė. Vadinasi, norint nagrinėt šių reiškinių kitimo dėsnius, patartina sudaryti šių procesų dinaminį modelį. Šiame darbe dinaminio modelio sudarymui naudojami indikatoriai. Indikatorius tai specialus rodiklis, kuriuo pasinaudojus galima skaitiškai įvertinti svarbius analizuojamos srities faktorius. Indikatorių reikšmės gaunamos iš statistinių duomenų. Diferencialinių lygčių sistemos koeficientams skaičiuoti pristatomi du būdai: algebrinis ir mažiausių kvadratų metodai. Indikatorių išraiškas, gautas išsprendus diferencialinių lygčių sistemą, galima panaudoti prognozavimui. Tačiau įgyvendinant naujus projektus, šias indikatorių išraiškas reikia patikslinti, atsižvelgiant į naujus faktorius. Kadangi naujų faktorių reikšmės nėra tiksliai žinomos (gautos iš ekspertinio vertinimo), jų įtaka sistemai yra išreiškiama atsitiktiniu dydžiu su žinomu tikimybiniu skirstiniu. Naujų faktorių įtaka indikatoriams dinaminiame modelyje yra patikslinama Bajeso metodu. Kaip pavyzdys, sudarytas dinaminis modelis pritaikytas energijos tiekimo saugumo indikatorių modeliavimui. / In many areas mathematical models of processes take into acount variuos time dependent factors, they also can be dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model. In this master thesis we use indicators to describe dynamic model. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to inportant factors for the investigated sector. The values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. There are presented two calculation ways of differential equations systems coefficients (using algebraic and least square methods). Furthermore created dynamic model enables us to forecast the dynamics of the indicators according to new factors. Since the parameters of different new factors are not exactly known (got from expert judgement), their influence on indicators are expressed as random variables with known probablistic distributions. Indicators model based on historical data is adjusted using a Bayesian approach. For practical demonstration of the proposed dynamic model energy security assessment indicators were chosen.

Master of Engineering / Global warming and diminishing energy supplies are two major current concerns. Disposal of plastic wastes is also a major concern. The aim of this research is to address these three concerns by developing a solar powered process, using waste plastics as fuel to generate energy. Research into: i) solar concentrators for high temperature thermochemical processes, and ii) pyrolysis/gasification of waste plastics has been separately reported in the literature. In this study the aim was to bring these fields of research together to design a solar receiver-reactor suitable for the production of a synthesis gas, consisting of hydrogen, from waste plastics. To achieve this aim, studies of plastic decomposition behaviour using the thermal analysis method known as thermogravimetric analysis were conducted. Solar concentrators and their potential to be used for thermochemical processes were also studied. Firstly, the thermal decomposition behaviour of common plastics, namely low density polyethylene (LDPE), high density polyethylene (HDPE), polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyvinyl chloride (PET), were studied using thermogravimetry at heating rates of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 ºC/min. The kinetic parameters for the decomposition were determined from these experiments. Secondly, a simple solar receiver-reactor in which the plastic decomposition could be achieved was designed. The solar receiver-reactor designed was a quartz tube reactor which can be placed in the focus of a dish type parabolic concentrator capable of generating up to 3 kW in the focus of diameter 50 mm. The thermogravimetric analysis of plastic samples showed that LDPE, HDPE and PET have a single-step decomposition, whereas PVC has a two-step decomposition. The first step was related to the release of hydrogen chloride from the PVC and the second step was related to the release of hydrocarbon from the polymer backbone. If PVC is pretreated to release HCl it can be mixed with other plastics for a single step decomposition. It is likely that a single step plastic decomposition can be achieved in a directly irradiated solar receiver-reactor to generate useful gases consisting of hydrogen.

Ethiopia is rapidly urbanising. Similar to other urban areas in developing countries, major issues in Ethiopia include a high level of income inequality, lack of formal employment opportunities and deeply rooted poverty, tenure insecurity, poor infrastructure, and limited access to electricity and energy. Frequently settlers end up in impoverished urban squatters and slums which do not offer them even the most basic infrastructure and hence lack to provide them with the perspectives they came for. Onward migration to farer off destinations such as the EU member states thus often remains as sole option for those caught in such urban poverty traps. Although the issue of informal urban settlements is not new to the context of Ethiopian cities, the current rapid urban growth rates are exposing urban rental markets as well as infrastructure and energy supply to considerable pressure. The paper investigates the respective situation in Ethiopia and demonstrates some best practice examples. In the context of Ethiopian cities, energy production and distribution have been highly centralised under state entities and the scope for exploring local/business driven and decentralised systems has been limited. Transitions can be implemented towards sustainability and the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals if collective identification and structuring of issues along with collective envisioning of future is provoked or facilitated.

Nine years have passed since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster (FDND). The Japanese government has been facing the issue of striking a balance among economy, environment, and social opinions for its energy transition policy. Increasing usages of fossil fuel, natural gas, and coal can fix the energy gap left out by reduced nuclear use and stabilise Japan’s energy supply, ensuring economic growth; however, the measure would increase the global warming potential. This study applies the Fossil fuel supply security index (FFSSI) to quantify the present energy supply security in Japan and presents future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on analysed results from the Linear Regression, Polynomial Regression, and Holt-Winters forecasting models. The driving forces of GHGs are analysed by Kaya identity to show the outlook in Japan. The aim of this study is to present the feasibility of reaching the Japanese government launched “Long-Term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook” for fiscal 2030, under Japan’s current energy supply system for policymaker’s consideration. Compared with other Asian-pacific countries (China, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.), the lacking self- sufficiency energy is the major weakness for Japan’s present energy supply system. Moreover, extrapolations based on several forecasting models indicate that the carbon dioxide emission is expected to increase in the next decade if keep continuing the present structure of the energy supply system.

Der KOMKIS Report fasst die Ergebnisse einer Kurzstudie zusammen, die methodisch mit Hilfe eines teilstandardisierten Leitfadeninterviews mit Experten zu Smart Metering im kommunalen Kontext geführt wurde. Ziel war es, explorativ erste Einschätzungen für den aktuell erfolgenden Smart Meter Rollout für Kommunen in Sachsen zu erhalten. Ei-nerseits ist das Ergebnis, dass ein erneuter Strukturwandel in der Stromwirtschaft be-vorsteht, der jedoch aus Sicht der Experten noch offen für die einzelnen Marktakteure ist. Andererseits ist klar, dass sowohl das kommunale Energiemanagement als auch die kommunalen öffentlichen Unternehmen in der Energiewirtschaft mit neuen Chancen und Risiken konfrontiert sind, die es zu gestalten gilt.

This thesis deals with theoretical design of NC rotary tilting table for Kovosvit MAS milling machine MCV 754 - QUICK. In the beginning of this paper is made a research with focus to rotary tilting tables, paletizing technologies and rotary suppliers of energy. The main part concerns with loading analysis of rotary tilting table, proposal of motion drives, bearings and the frame of desired machine. For motion drive of each axis is chosen torque motor. Constructional solution of pressed air supply to the middle boring of face plate is realized by a rotary union. The next point of solution is arrangement of moving supply electrical and pneumatic energy to the frame of tilting axis. The last part is concerned to proposal of realizing of changing tchnological pallets by the Zero-point systems. In the end the economical analysis is made.

Oliver Tambo Institute of Governance and Policy Studies / MPM

Today, energy access is a significant challenge all over the world, particularly in African countries. At the same time, providing energy access is generally accepted as a way to promote sustainable development. In countries such as Uganda, lack of energy access is evident. In this country only 9% of households have access to electricity. About 87% of these households are located in rural and remote areas. Thus, off-grid rural electrification solutions are required to supply electricity services to a significant part of the population.The ultimate objective of this thesis is to propose a specific solution to cover basic energy needs of the rural population considering environmental, social and economic benefits. How can sustainable life solutions be provided in rural areas, by using the energy surplus from a decentralized small-scale biomass gasification power plant? The analysis used as a starting point the Green Plant Concept, which considers the design of a sustainable off-grid platform that produces energy to provide life solutions and also to excite local entrepreneurship in the rural sites where it is implemented. The concept implies participation of the private sector – a telecommunication company – which is a unique feature in the context of rural energization.To develop our analysis, a field trip has been conducted in Uganda, Africa, to answer sub-questions such as How to reach a cost-effective system? How to adapt a business oriented approach to the community’s life-style in order to be well accepted? How to foster the development of the area by having a positive socio-economic impact on society? How to create an environmental friendly solution? How to achieve the maximum efficiency in terms of reusing waste? Tools such as Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) and SWOT analysis were used to interpret collected information and identify impacts of the suggested solutions.The research has shown the great potential of the Green Plan Concept. We conclude by selecting three applications that can enhance the provision of basic energy needs while creating benefits for the stakeholders involved in the process: i) Mini-Grid solutions, ii) Battery Charging Stations and iii) Heat Pipe Exchangers. We also highlighted the relevance of bringing, in addition to appropriated technologies, different stakeholders together, considering their common interests.The research is finalized by estimating the payback period based on the current and expected energy consumption and the capital investment related to the suggested applications. It is important to highlight that the payback time estimations do not include the participation of the telecom companies. This means that the estimated payback period of 7 years could be significantly reduced by the inclusion of this stakeholder.

Due to the significant increase of ’renewable energy’ to the total energy the highly fluctuating energy supply, which is due to the constitutional conditions of production among others from photovoltaic systems, becomes a growing problem. As a result, many engineering firms and companies dedicate themselves to the so-called power prediction by which it should be possible to integrate a fast changing energy supply into a necessarily continuous energy supply. The Ingenieurbüro für Last- und Energiemanagement (LEM-Software) used a neural network for this prediction of performance of photovoltaic systems. This networks learn from past knowledge a mathematical patern that can be used for forecasting. Based on this, this article deals with a new parameter for the network which characterizes the probability of broken cloud effects. The global radiation forecast in the surrounding area is analyzed for this index. It turns out that this inhomogeneous index is a better indicator than the standard deviation. A first application shows a slight improvement in the forecast result. However, the time limit for application of the neural network is too short for a final evaluation. / Aufgrund des steigenden Anteils ’erneuerbarer Energie’ an der Energieversorgung wird die stark schwankende Energiezufuhr, bedingt durch die naturgegebenen Produktionsbedingungen unter anderem von Photovoltaik-Anlagen, zu einem immer größeren Problem. Infolge dessen widmen sich viele Ingenieurbüros und Firmen sogenannten Leistungsprognosen, mit deren Hilfe es gelingen soll, eine schnell wechselnde Energiebereitstellung in eine notwendigerweise kontinuierliche Energieversorgung zu streichen. Das Ingenieurbüro für Last- und Energiemanagement (LEM-Software) verwendet für diese Vorhersagen der Leistung von Photovoltaik-Anlagen ein künstliches neuronales Netzwerk (KNN). Dieses erlernt aus vergangenen Verhältnissen ein mathematisches Muster, welches für die Prognose angewendet werden kann. Aufbauend darauf befasst sich dieser Artikel mit einem Inhomogenitätsindex f¨ur das Netzwerk, welcher die Wahrscheinlichkeit für das Auftreten schnell wechselnder Bewölkung und von Broken-Cloud-Effekten charakterisiert. Für den Index wird die Globalstrahlungsvorhersage in der näheren Umgebung analysiert. Dabei stellt sich heraus, dass dieser Inhomogenitätsindex ein besserer Indikator als die Standardabweichung ist. Eine erste Anwendung zeigt eine leichte Verbesserung des Prognoseergebnisses, allerdings ist der Zeitraum für die Anwendung des KNN zu kurz für eine abschließende Bewertung.

Innovative Lösungsprinzipien auf andere Lebens- und Wirtschaftsbereiche zu übertragen, ist eine sich wiederholende Herausforderung in Wissenschaft und Praxis. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden Kooperationsphänomene der Erwerbs- und Bedarfswirtschaften thematisiert. Es wird der Frage nachgegangen, ob die Gestalt und Organisation eines Kooperationsphänomens systematisch mit deskriptiv-analytischen Untersuchungsmethoden (Systemtheorie und Morphologie) beschrieben und bereichsübergreifend, unter Einbeziehung individueller Besonderheiten, übertragen werden kann. Das Vorhaben wird als Analogiebildung verstanden. Ein Schema zur Analogiebildung für Kooperationsphänomene wird entwickelt. Zur Validierung des Schemas wird als Analogiequelle das Organisationskonzept der Zwei-Ebenen-Kooperation ausgewählt, welches ursprünglich für Produktionsnetze konzipiert wurde und sich insbesondere auf Klein- und Mikrounternehmen ausrichtet. Als Empfänger wird der Bereich der dezentralen Energieversorgung festgelegt, in dem sich verstärkt kooperative Organisationsformen einer selbstbestimmten, kooperativen und bürgernahen dezentralen Energieversorgung herausbilden. Auf der Grundlage der Analogiebetrachtung aus dem Bereich der Produktionsnetze wird ein neuartiges, kooperatives Organisationskonzept für die dezentrale Energieversorgung entworfen. Die Arbeit wird damit interessant für alle, die an einer systematischen Übertragung von Wissen zur Gestalt und Organisation von Kooperationsphänomenen und der Ausgestaltung eines kooperativen Organisationskonzeptes für die dezentrale Energieversorgung interessiert sind.