Soil water deficits greatly affect forage production. To evaluate the effects of soil moisture stress on forage production, a budgeting model was developed. The soil water budgeting model uses the initial soil water content which can be assumed or calculated. Stress was calculated as a difference between potential evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration at a level of - 5 bar. A radiation method was used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration and the soil water budgeting model was used to calculate the actual evapotranspiration. The Soil Conservation Service method was applied to calculate runoff and effective rainfall was calculated by subtraction of runoff from original rainfall and used in the model for calculation of actual evapotranspiration. Calculated stress was correlated to the yield and stepwise multiple regression were used to produce prediction equations. Observed soil water data and yield for calibration and validation of the models were obtained from Santa Rita Forest and Range Experimental Range in southeastern Arizona.