Desastres naturais sempre fizeram parte da vida dos seres humanos, porém nos últimos anos devido ao crescimento dos grandes centros urbanos, da dificuldade de aplicação e cumprimento de políticas de preservação ambiental e de alterações climáticas crescentes, as catástrofes naturais estão se tornando comuns, e no caso particular deste estudo os danos causados por cheias têm afetado as populações próximas aos leitos hídricos, causando prejuízos materiais, mortes, desaparecimentos, flagelados e desalojados. Para se conhecer melhor o comportamento destes eventos extremos e aumentar a segurança evitando com isto a perda de vidas e minimizando o prejuízo econômico que advém destes desastres, se faz necessário um estudo das possíveis áreas afetadas identificando os locais de risco e quantificando a criticidade de um evento de grande magnitude. Com base em estudos de eventos anteriores, como os registros de grandes enchentes, e utilizando técnicas modernas de posicionamento por GPS (Global Positioning System), processamento digital de imagens geradas por satélites e representação temática do nivelamento geométrico destas cheias, pode-se reproduzir em modelos estes eventos e quantificá-los com uma boa precisão de seus efeitos nos dias atuais. A simulação destes eventos extremos em um modelo de base confiável que, disponibilizado à defesa civil, traz um conhecimento prévio dos possíveis efeitos de uma ocorrência deste tipo, onde poderão ser planejadas rotas de fugas e ações mitigadoras, minimizando perdas de vidas e grandes prejuízos econômicos. Os mesmos modelos servem também de ferramenta de análise de impacto e planejamentos para melhoria do plano diretor de desenvolvimento social, econômico, ambiental e pesquisas na área acadêmica. Os modelos apresentados contemplam apenas uma pequena parte das possibilidades que um trabalho como este viabiliza na área da pesquisa. Os mapas temáticos com as curvas de nível, médias das enchentes registradas, área destinada à preservação ambiental da orla do rio e o mapa das regiões onde o evento extremo de 41 atingiu, ficam disponibilizados para livre utilização. / Natural disasters have always been part of the human lives, but in recent years due to growth of large urban centers, the difficulty of implementation and compliance of environmental preservation policies and increasing climate change, natural disasters are becoming common, and in the particular case of this study the damage caused by floods have affected populations beds near the water resources, causing material damage, deaths, disappearances, flagellates and homeless. To better understand the behavior of these extreme events and increase safety avoiding the lives loss and minimizing the economic losses that arise from these disasters, it is necessary to study the possible affected areas identifying the risk sites and quantifying the criticality of an event of great magnitude. Based on studies of past events, as the records of large floods, and using modern techniques of GPS positioning, digital image processing generated by satellites and thematic representation of capping geometry of these floods, we can play in these models events and quantify them with a good accuracy of its effects today. The simulation of these extreme events in a confident base model that available to bring the civil defense prior knowledge of the possible effects of an event this kind, which may be planned escape routes and mitigating actions minimizing loss of life and large economic losses. The same models also serve as analysis impact tool and planning for improvement of the master plan for social development, economic, environmental and research in the academic area. The models presented cover only a small part of the possibility that a work like this enables on research area. Thematic maps with contour lines, medium flood recorded, for environmental conservation area bordering the river and the map of the regions where the extreme event of 41 hit, are available for free use.

Desastres naturais sempre fizeram parte da vida dos seres humanos, porém nos últimos anos devido ao crescimento dos grandes centros urbanos, da dificuldade de aplicação e cumprimento de políticas de preservação ambiental e de alterações climáticas crescentes, as catástrofes naturais estão se tornando comuns, e no caso particular deste estudo os danos causados por cheias têm afetado as populações próximas aos leitos hídricos, causando prejuízos materiais, mortes, desaparecimentos, flagelados e desalojados. Para se conhecer melhor o comportamento destes eventos extremos e aumentar a segurança evitando com isto a perda de vidas e minimizando o prejuízo econômico que advém destes desastres, se faz necessário um estudo das possíveis áreas afetadas identificando os locais de risco e quantificando a criticidade de um evento de grande magnitude. Com base em estudos de eventos anteriores, como os registros de grandes enchentes, e utilizando técnicas modernas de posicionamento por GPS (Global Positioning System), processamento digital de imagens geradas por satélites e representação temática do nivelamento geométrico destas cheias, pode-se reproduzir em modelos estes eventos e quantificá-los com uma boa precisão de seus efeitos nos dias atuais. A simulação destes eventos extremos em um modelo de base confiável que, disponibilizado à defesa civil, traz um conhecimento prévio dos possíveis efeitos de uma ocorrência deste tipo, onde poderão ser planejadas rotas de fugas e ações mitigadoras, minimizando perdas de vidas e grandes prejuízos econômicos. Os mesmos modelos servem também de ferramenta de análise de impacto e planejamentos para melhoria do plano diretor de desenvolvimento social, econômico, ambiental e pesquisas na área acadêmica. Os modelos apresentados contemplam apenas uma pequena parte das possibilidades que um trabalho como este viabiliza na área da pesquisa. Os mapas temáticos com as curvas de nível, médias das enchentes registradas, área destinada à preservação ambiental da orla do rio e o mapa das regiões onde o evento extremo de 41 atingiu, ficam disponibilizados para livre utilização. / Natural disasters have always been part of the human lives, but in recent years due to growth of large urban centers, the difficulty of implementation and compliance of environmental preservation policies and increasing climate change, natural disasters are becoming common, and in the particular case of this study the damage caused by floods have affected populations beds near the water resources, causing material damage, deaths, disappearances, flagellates and homeless. To better understand the behavior of these extreme events and increase safety avoiding the lives loss and minimizing the economic losses that arise from these disasters, it is necessary to study the possible affected areas identifying the risk sites and quantifying the criticality of an event of great magnitude. Based on studies of past events, as the records of large floods, and using modern techniques of GPS positioning, digital image processing generated by satellites and thematic representation of capping geometry of these floods, we can play in these models events and quantify them with a good accuracy of its effects today. The simulation of these extreme events in a confident base model that available to bring the civil defense prior knowledge of the possible effects of an event this kind, which may be planned escape routes and mitigating actions minimizing loss of life and large economic losses. The same models also serve as analysis impact tool and planning for improvement of the master plan for social development, economic, environmental and research in the academic area. The models presented cover only a small part of the possibility that a work like this enables on research area. Thematic maps with contour lines, medium flood recorded, for environmental conservation area bordering the river and the map of the regions where the extreme event of 41 hit, are available for free use.

Desastres naturais sempre fizeram parte da vida dos seres humanos, porém nos últimos anos devido ao crescimento dos grandes centros urbanos, da dificuldade de aplicação e cumprimento de políticas de preservação ambiental e de alterações climáticas crescentes, as catástrofes naturais estão se tornando comuns, e no caso particular deste estudo os danos causados por cheias têm afetado as populações próximas aos leitos hídricos, causando prejuízos materiais, mortes, desaparecimentos, flagelados e desalojados. Para se conhecer melhor o comportamento destes eventos extremos e aumentar a segurança evitando com isto a perda de vidas e minimizando o prejuízo econômico que advém destes desastres, se faz necessário um estudo das possíveis áreas afetadas identificando os locais de risco e quantificando a criticidade de um evento de grande magnitude. Com base em estudos de eventos anteriores, como os registros de grandes enchentes, e utilizando técnicas modernas de posicionamento por GPS (Global Positioning System), processamento digital de imagens geradas por satélites e representação temática do nivelamento geométrico destas cheias, pode-se reproduzir em modelos estes eventos e quantificá-los com uma boa precisão de seus efeitos nos dias atuais. A simulação destes eventos extremos em um modelo de base confiável que, disponibilizado à defesa civil, traz um conhecimento prévio dos possíveis efeitos de uma ocorrência deste tipo, onde poderão ser planejadas rotas de fugas e ações mitigadoras, minimizando perdas de vidas e grandes prejuízos econômicos. Os mesmos modelos servem também de ferramenta de análise de impacto e planejamentos para melhoria do plano diretor de desenvolvimento social, econômico, ambiental e pesquisas na área acadêmica. Os modelos apresentados contemplam apenas uma pequena parte das possibilidades que um trabalho como este viabiliza na área da pesquisa. Os mapas temáticos com as curvas de nível, médias das enchentes registradas, área destinada à preservação ambiental da orla do rio e o mapa das regiões onde o evento extremo de 41 atingiu, ficam disponibilizados para livre utilização. / Natural disasters have always been part of the human lives, but in recent years due to growth of large urban centers, the difficulty of implementation and compliance of environmental preservation policies and increasing climate change, natural disasters are becoming common, and in the particular case of this study the damage caused by floods have affected populations beds near the water resources, causing material damage, deaths, disappearances, flagellates and homeless. To better understand the behavior of these extreme events and increase safety avoiding the lives loss and minimizing the economic losses that arise from these disasters, it is necessary to study the possible affected areas identifying the risk sites and quantifying the criticality of an event of great magnitude. Based on studies of past events, as the records of large floods, and using modern techniques of GPS positioning, digital image processing generated by satellites and thematic representation of capping geometry of these floods, we can play in these models events and quantify them with a good accuracy of its effects today. The simulation of these extreme events in a confident base model that available to bring the civil defense prior knowledge of the possible effects of an event this kind, which may be planned escape routes and mitigating actions minimizing loss of life and large economic losses. The same models also serve as analysis impact tool and planning for improvement of the master plan for social development, economic, environmental and research in the academic area. The models presented cover only a small part of the possibility that a work like this enables on research area. Thematic maps with contour lines, medium flood recorded, for environmental conservation area bordering the river and the map of the regions where the extreme event of 41 hit, are available for free use.

This study deals with the perspective of vulnerability of the Swedish electricity distribution system to climate and weather related risks. How and to what extent the electricity sector is adapting to the risk and what possibilities are formed in this respect are investigated. This is a quantitative and qualitative analysis where statistical data has been used to apprehend the extent of disturbances of the electricity distribution system and their causes. Interviews have been used in order to investigate different views among actors working within the electricity distribution system sector. The result shows that the dominating cause of disturbances in the electrical network in Sweden is the weather, giving most hours of breaks. The countryside has more often disturbances than urban areas. It also emerges that it is the lines overhead that are most affected by disturbances. The system is flexible. If one line is disturbed the electricity can be distributed using another line (redundancy). It seems like there is a diversion between the respondents on how and if a future climate change really is a risk for the electricity distribution system. It is clear that the vulnerability has increased in the society during the past 10-20 years, and so has the societal costs of the disturbances because of the increasing dependence on electricity. Reducing the consequences of a weather related impact on the electrical system will make society more resilient and less vulnerable. The respondents in this study are somewhat adapting to the weather related risks that they have identified with technical solutions. It is important to learn more about how the electrical system properties influence the sensitivity in society. There is a need to investigate the dependency of electricity in society. It is also important that all the actors have the same interpretation of the difference between a recurrent event and a nature disaster. More work should be done to clarify where the responsibility for adapting the electrical sector to the possible climate change lies. This complex responsibility issue with all affected actors influences the sensitivity of society and the electrical system.

This thesis examines the susceptibility of human health to climate-related stresses in the rural municipality of Addington Highlands, Ontario. Human health is sensitive to climatic variations and change, and public health systems play a role in managing climate-related risks. Canada is generally deemed to have considerable capacity to adapt to vulnerabilities associated with climate change, yet there is variability among communities in their exposure and ability to manage health risks. This thesis examines the health-related vulnerability of the community of Addington Highlands. Drawing upon data gained from key informant interviews and newspaper articles, as well as other secondary data sources, the thesis documents climate-related health risks, outlines the programs and services available to deal with those risks, and assesses the capacity of the community to adapt to future climate conditions and risks. Conditions such as storms, heat stress and forest fires currently present health risks in the area, and they are expected to become more prevalent with climate change. The health risks of Lyme disease, West Nile virus and algal blooms are likely to increase in the future as the climate continues to change. Adaptation to these risks is evident in several of Addington Highlands public health and emergency management programs. The community’s adaptive capacity is strengthened by its social networks and institutional flexibility, but it is constrained by its aging population, limits to the availability and access to health care services, and challenges relating to the retention of service providers. An important strategy to assist adaptation to climate change risks to health is the promotion of public awareness, a strategy to which this research contributes. This thesis research serves to identify and better understand vulnerabilities, and help stimulate actions toward preparing Addington Highlands for possible future climate-related risks.

The electrification of societies and the decarbonisation of electricity production are changing energy systems worldwide. A fast transition towards the replacement of fossil fuels by intermittent renewable energy sources is expected in the next decades to combat climate change. A significant share of the produced electricity is likely to be generated from offshore wind farms, due to the abundant wind resources in the offshore regions and the lack of available onshore sites. However, increased electricity dependence in combination with expanded offshore wind power generation introduce new vulnerabilities to the society. Specifically, the effects of high impact low probability (HILP) events are considered as potential threats to the power system, not least because of the increasing number of extreme weather events. Therefore, research on power grid vulnerability and power system resilience to HILP events are of significant interest. This thesis presents results of studies investigating power grid vulnerability from a topological perspective, and resilience to storm conditions of power systems with varying dependencies on offshore wind. To achieve this, methods based on complex network theory and AC power flow analysis have been developed, tested, and evaluated. Further, geospatial wind data from historical extreme storm events have been used to generate realistic power production profiles from hypothetical offshore wind farms. The results strengthen that complex network concepts can be used successfully in the context of power grid vulnerability analysis. Further, the results show that the resilience of power systems with large dependencies on offshore wind differ vastly depending on the grid properties and control strategies, which are further discussed in this thesis.

Climate change impacts hydrology, nutrient cycling, agricultural conservation practices, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Chesapeake Bay and its watershed are subject to the largest and most expensive Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) ever developed. It is unclear if the TMDL can be met given climate change and variability (e.g., extreme weather events). The objective of this dissertation is to quantify the impact of climate change and climate on water resources, nutrient cycling and export in agroecosystems, and agricultural conservation practices in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This is accomplished by developing and employing a suite of modelling tools. GHG emissions from agroecosystems, particularly nitrous oxide (N2O), are an increasing concern. To quantify N2O emissions a routine was developed for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The new routine predicts N2O and di-nitrogen (N2) emissions by coupling the C and N cycles with soil moisture, temperature, and pH in SWAT. The model uses reduction functions to predict total denitrification (N2 + N2O production) and partitions N2 from N2O using a ratio method. The SWAT nitrification routine was modified to predict N2O emissions using reduction functions. The new model was tested using GRACEnet data at University Park, Pennsylvania, and West Lafayette, Indiana. Results showed strong correlations between plot measurements of N2O flux and the model predictions for both test sites and suggest that N2O emissions are particularly sensitive to soil pH and soil N, and moderately sensitive to soil temperature/moisture and total soil C levels. The new GHG model was then used to analyze the impact of climate change and extreme weather conditions on the denitrification rate, N2O emissions, and nutrient cycling/export in the 7.4 km2 WE38 watershed in Pennsylvania. Climate change impacts hydrology and nutrient cycling by changing soil moisture, stoichiometric nutrient ratios, and soil temperature, potentially complicating mitigation measures. To quantify the impact of climate change we forced the new GHG model with downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model output and derived climate anomalies to assess their impact on hydrology, nitrate (NO3-), phosphorus (P), and sediment export, and on emissions of N2O and N2. Model-average (± standard deviation) results indicate that climate change, through an increase in precipitation, will result in moderate increases in winter/spring flow (2.7±10.6 %) and NO3- export (3.0±7.3 %), substantial increases in dissolved P (DP, 8.8±19.8 %), total P (TP, 4.5±11.7 %), and sediment (17.9±14.2 %) export, and greater N2O (63.3±50.8 %) and N2 (17.6±20.7 %) emissions. Conversely, decreases in summer flow (-12.4±26.7 %) and the export of P (-11.4±27.4 %), TP (-7.9±24.5 %), sediment (-4.1±21.4 %), and NO3- (-12.2±31.4 %) are driven by greater evapotranspiration from increasing summer temperatures. Increases in N2O (20.1±29.3 %) and decreases in N2 (-13.0±14.6 %) are also predicted in the summer and driven by increases in soil moisture and temperature. In an effort to assess the impact of climate change at a regional level, the model was then scaled-up to the entire Susquehanna River basin and was used to evaluate if agricultural best management practices (BMPs) can offset the impact of climate change. Agricultural BMPs are increasingly and widely employed to reduce diffuse nutrient pollution. Climate change can complicate the development, implementation, and efficiency of BMPs by altering hydrology, nutrient cycling, and erosion. We select and evaluate four common BMPs (buffer strips, strip crop, no-till, and tile drainage) to test their response to climate change. We force the calibrated model with six downscaled global climate models (GCMs) for a historic period (1990-2014) and two future scenario periods (2041-2065) and (2075-2099) and quantify the impact of climate change on hydrology, NO3-, total N (TN), DP, TP, and sediment export with and without BMPs. We also tested prioritizing BMP installation on the 30% of agricultural lands that generate the most runoff (e.g., critical source areas-CSAs). Compared against the historical baseline and excluding the impact of BMPs, the ensemble model mean (± standard deviation?) predictions indicate that climate change results in annual increases in flow (4.5±7.3%), surface runoff (3.5±6.1%), sediment export (28.5±18.2%) and TN (9.5±5.1%), but decreases in NO3- (12±12.8%), DP (14±11.5%), and TP (2.5±7.4%) export. When agricultural BMPs are simulated most do not appreciably change the overall water balance; however, tile drainage and strip crop decrease surface runoff generation and the export of sediment, DP, and TP, while buffer strips reduced N export substantially. Installing BMPs on critical source areas (CSAs) results in nearly the same level of performance for most practices and most pollutants. These results suggest that climate change will influence the performance of BMPs and that targeting BMPs to CSAs can provide nearly the same level of water quality impact as more widespread adoption. Finally, recognizing that all of these model applications have considerable uncertainty associated with their predictions, we develop and employ a Bayesian multi-model ensemble to evaluate structural model prediction uncertainty. The reliability of watershed models in a management context depends largely on associated uncertainties. Our Objective is to quantify structural uncertainty for predictions of flow, sediment, TN, and TP predictions using three models: the SWAT-Variable Source Area model (SWAT-VSA), the standard SWAT model (SWAT-ST), and the Chesapeake Bay watershed model (CBP-model). We initialize each of the models using weather, soil, and land use data and analyze outputs of flow, sediment, TN, and TP for the Susquehanna River basin at the Conowingo Dam in Conowingo, Maryland. Using these three models we fit Bayesian Generalized Non - Linear Multilevel Models (BGMM) for flow, sediment, TN, and TP and obtain estimated outputs with 95% confidence intervals. We compare the BGMM results against the individual model results and straight model averaging (SMA) results using a split time period analysis (training period and testing period) to assess the BGMM in a predictive fashion. The BGMM provided better predictions of flow, sediment, TN, and TP compared to individual models and the SMA during the training period. However, during the testing period the BGMM was not always the best predictor; in fact, there was no clear best model during the testing period. Perhaps more importantly, the BGMM provides estimates of prediction uncertainty, which can enhance decision making and improve watershed management by providing a risk-based assessment of outcomes. / Ph. D. / Climate change impacts hydrology, nutrient cycling, agricultural conservation practices, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Chesapeake Bay and its watershed are subject to the largest and most expensive Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) ever developed. It is unclear if the TMDL can be met given climate change and variability. The objective of this dissertation is to quantify the impact of climate change and climate on water resources, nutrient cycling and export in agroecosystems, and agricultural conservation practices in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This is accomplished by developing and employing different modeling tools. First, GHG emissions model was developed to quantify nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from agroecosystems, which are an increasing concern. The new model was then tested using observed N₂O emissions data at University Park, Pennsylvania, and West Lafayette, Indiana. Results showed strong correlations between plot measurements of N₂O flux and the model predictions for both test sites. Second, the new GHG model was then used to analyze the impact of climate change and extreme weather conditions on the N₂O emissions, and nutrient cycling/export in small and regional watershed scale. To quantify the impact of climate change we forced the new GHG model with downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model date to assess their impact on hydrology, nitrate (NO₃-), phosphorus (P), and sediment export, and on emissions of N₂O and N₂. Finally, recognizing that all of these model applications have considerable uncertainty associated with their predictions, we developed and employed a Bayesian multi-model ensemble to evaluate structural model prediction uncertainty.

The thesis aims at corporate adaptation to climate change impacts in the logistics and transportation industry, especially for the model region Dresden. The paper employs two analyses. The first part deals with a review of the current literature within the topic. 20 references are identified and analysed with a data extraction form. More general adaptation measures are identified in the current literature which can be implemented in the corporate strategy. Crucial effects on company’s operation and its profit have flooding and sea level rise. In comparison adaptation measures, which are identified within five interviews of transportation providers in the model region Dresden, are of technological nature. The interviewed companies adapted significantly to weather extremes in the past. It is identified that heavy precipitation like rain and snow lead to crucial negative impacts to their operations which cause lost profit and customer dissatisfaction in long periods of time. On the other hand these weather conditions may have positive effects in short periods of time. Region-specific analyses in climate change impacts and the implementation of potential adaptation measures for logistics and transportation companies is still in a stage of infancy. Further research is needed on more region-specific analyses and on logistics companies in the model region Dresden as only five of them analysed in this thesis.

This thesis focuses on two extreme weather years in 1867-1868 that led to crop failure and subsistence crisis in parts of Sweden. Specifically it focus on Gävleborgs County and one parish, Hanebo Parish, in south west Hälsingland. The study presents contemporary examples from original sources on the national, regional and local level and one secondary source. With a qualitative approach, the study investigates the social impacts of sudden extreme weather and following harvest failure and assess signs of a possible subsistence crisis on regional and local level in the years of 1867-68. The empirics are analyzed trough demographic methodology often used to evaluate ”famine-like” situations, theories on famine and its causes and the three concepts: vulnerability, resilience and exchange entitlement. The result of the study shows a subsistence crisis in Gävleborg county and Hanebo Parish, in the years of 1867-68. These indications included poor harvest, demographic impact on parochial level and visible mitigating strategies for coping with the situation. Social hierarchies which are making impact on attitudes within the contemporary context of crisis are also discovered in the empiric material. The study also shows that state incentives and publically organised incentives can mitigate disaster both over short and long term.

<p>The complex interplay between biotic and abiotic factors, believed to be responsible for several oak declines in European oak stands during the last three decades, remains poorly understood. Hence, this study aims at clarifying the temporal process of oak declines, as well as identifying individual tree and environmental variables that increase the risk of oak mortality. The study was performed in one of the few areas in northern Europe still holding high densities of old oaks (<em>Quercus robur </em>L<em>.</em>). Cross dating revealed that most trees had died during the last decade. Averaged chronologies and multiple chronological clustering suggested that the onset of the oak decline happened in 1992, when a severe drought took place. Two of the sites showed a rather short time period of heavily reduced growth prior to death, most likely caused by an insect defoliation in combination with a mildew infection of the replacement shoots. Environmental variables presented a rather weak influence on oak mortality. The results support the idea of attributing oak mortality to a combination of long- and short-term stresses, and emphasize the importance of including present as well as past factors when analysing the causes of oak declines.</p>