M.Com. (Economics) / Please refer to full text to view abstract

Ph.D. (Economics) / Please refer to full text to view abstract

M.Com. / The objective of this study was to compose an effective exchange rate index for the motor- and related industries in Soutb Africa to be used for the forecasting of new motorcar prices. The situation in South Africa, where a lot of components used in the production of motorcars are imported, exposes the industry to exchange rate risk. The government introduced measures like Phase VI of the local content program and a 100 percent Ad Valorem import duty on new motorcars to protect local manufacturers. Although these measures limits exchange rate exposure, the motor industry is still affected by exchange rate changes. An effective exchange rate index was compiled by allocating weights to a currency index according to it's contnbution to imports by the local motor industry. The private consumer of motorcars can use the index to determine when he must purchase a new vehicle to avoid price increases. Corporate consumers of motor vehicles can use the index to help with the management of their vehicle fleet. The index can also be used by motorcar manufacturers and importers of components to manage their exchange rate risk. Individual motorcar manufacturers can test the effectiveness of their strategies to manage exchange rate risk by comparing it to the index as the effective exchange rate index was compiled for the industry as a whole. The exposure of a manufacturer with an effective strategy will be less than that of the index. A manufacturer will have to look at alternative strategies to managing exchange rate risk if his exposure to exchange rate risk is greater than that of the index. Regression analysis was used with the exchange rate index as the independent variable to forecast prices of new motorcars. A high degree of correlation was found when the forecasted prices were compared with the actual prices of new motorcars. The conclusion was reached that the effective exchange rate index could be of great value to the private- and corporate consumer of new motor vehicles as well as manufacturers of motorcars and importers of components.

M.Com. (Investment Management) / In the research of currency risk management it is important to note that currency risk management forms part of the overall risk management of business and authorised currency dealers. various hedging instruments exist with which currency risk can be managed. This study deals with the origin and the influence of currency fluctuations on business, and the management of such risk. Various factors exist which affect the level of exchange rates. In South Africa the most important factors affecting these rates are the gold price, the level of the American dollar and the degree of political stability. Since most of these factors do not fall within South Africa's control, but are mostly influenced by external factors, exchange rates can only be managed to a certain extent. This is possible through Reserve bank interference. Fluctuation in exchange rates exposes local companies and currency dealers to currency risk. Several techniques and instruments can be employed in currency risk management.

M.Comm. / The fundamental objective of this paper is to effectively analise and forecast currency option volatility in the South African derivative market. The study of Dollar/Rand volatility is based in the domain of quantitative and international economics. It focuses on the monetary aspect of international finance, where currency volatility is of critical significance in the hedging of open currency option positions used in investment strategies as well as in active currency risk management. Topics covered in this study include firstly a theoretical discussion of option pricing and volatility to provide the necessary financial and statistical background: Advanced volatility issues are secondly addressed to define the volatility matrix and to explain the appearance of volatility smiles and cones as well as the characteristics of the time structure of volatility. The use of volatility as an important risk management tool is also depicted. Various time-series techniques such as the Box Jenkins methodology and decomposition of Dollar/Rand historical and implied volatility are assessed and used to forecast volatility. Univariate and multivariate regression analysis is in addition described and used to find the best estimate for subsequent Dollar/Rand volatility. Finally, the paper is concluded by an analysis of time varying stochastic volatility models such as the models for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. The techniques apply a regression on the variance and include a function to allow for the asymmetric nature of movements in Dollar/Rand volatility. Up to date, no formal in-depth academical research on high frequency currency volatility has been conducted in the South African derivative market. It is therefor crucial to research the unique characteristics of Dollar/Rand option volatility. If the study concludes that Dollar/Rand volatility is predictable, it will have important implications for currency option pricing and portfolio management. Investors seeking to avoid risk, may choose to adjust their portfolios by reducing their commitments to assets whose volatilities are predicted to increase, or by using dynamic diversification approaches to hedge predicted volatility increases. This is particularly true of currency derivative markets where the volatility of the underlying asset has a profound effect on the value of the derivative.

Since the early 1970s, exchange rate fluctuations have characterised the behaviour of the external value of many currencies in both high- and low-income countries. Up-and-down movements in real exchange rates have been observed under fixed as we:ll as flexible arrangements. This is in spite of the fact that many less developing countries (until the 1980s), unlike the major industrialised countries, opted to retain relatively rigid exchange rate systems after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Exchange rate volatility has been a subject of much concern in government, business and academic circles because it has been associated with negative effects on the performance of developing economies. Consequences of these large swings in exchange rates have included uncertainty and delays in business decisions, resource misallocation, interest rate volatility and real exchange rate misalignments. For the period, froln1970 to 1996, this study investigates the phenomenon of real exchange rate disequilibrium in developing countries, with an empirical and econometric examination of South African data. Using the ordinary least squares and the EngleGranger cointegration techniques, this investigation found that government consumption of nontradables, the price of gold in rand, the overall terms of trade and the rate of depreciation are important determinants of the short-run behaviour ofthe real effective exchange rate in South Africa. With regard to the long-run the permanent componen1ts ofthe fundamentals - namely, technological or productivity improvement, trade policy, governm1ent consumption of nontradables, disposable income, capital flows, the terms of trade excluding gold and the rand price of gold -, were found to be significantly related to the equilibrium conduct of the real effective exchange rate. Instances of real exchange rate misalignment were found in both periods of fixed and flexible exchange rate management. / Thesis (M.Soc.Sci.)-University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 1999.

M.Com. (Business Management) / The word "business" is described by the Oxford Dictionary as "one's occupation of affairs, things needing dealing with, buying and selling, trade or a commercial firm" (Swannell P68). The activities ofabusiness are usually carried outwith the primary intention of creating a profit. The objective is to maximise the return on an investment to such an extent that it exceeds the cost of the capital to which the investment relates. This can, however, be a very difficult and intricate process, depending on the nature of the industry concerned, as well as the complexity of the variables affecting the business. Each business has an internal as well as an external environment in which it operates. The internal environment consists of capital, equipment, labour and know-how (Churr and Gous) from which an infrastructure is created. This infrastructure includes an accumulation of raw materials, equipment, funding and personnel. All these are managed and guided by people with entrepreneurial skills in an effortto make the aforementioned acceptable profit. The variables in this internal environment can be managed and controlled to a greaterextent than those of the external environment. One of the variables of the external environment over which individual companies have virtually no control, but which have a significant influence on the profitability of a company, is foreign exchange rates. Although all companies are affected to some extent by exchange rates, those companies involved in international transactions in different currencies are subject to more exposure and consequently a greater foreign exchange risk...

M.Com. (Economics) / The objective of the thesis was to examine the relationship between the rand exchange rate and the interest rate under the floating exchange rate system. A theoretical analysis of previous exchange rate regimes with a particular emphasis on the floating exchange rate system was conducted. At the end of the sixties it became evident that the limitations of the fixed exchange rate system were such that it could no longer handle the tensions which had developed in the international monetary system with its great dependence on the US dollar as reserve currency and unit of accounting. The floating exchange rate system deregulates the international monetary system. Market forces are allowed to play a more prominent role in determining a price variable such as the exchange rate. This flexibility has led to the globalization and internationalization of the world's fund markets.

Migrant labourers who cross borders often have to send money back to their various countries of origin. These monetary transfers are known as remittances. To send these funds migrants often opt to rely on informal mechanisms as opposed to the remittance services of formal financial institutions such as banks. Informal remittance mechanisms raise a number of concerns such as those related to consumer protection. In contrast to formal channels informal channels are not based on any legally binding agreements. They are highly based on trust and do not offer any legally binding guarantee that the funds will be delivered or that the remitter will be reimbursed in the event of non-delivery. Aside from consumer protection concerns, informal remittances also raise security related concerns. These channels are not subject to the supervision of any regulatory authority and usually offer a high level of anonymity. They can act as an attractive mechanism for terrorists and criminal organisations to launder and mobilise their illicit funds. Taking into mind the concerns mentioned above, as well as others, it would be preferable for more remittances to be channeled through formal financial mechanisms. In conducting research on remittance transactions financial, as well as other institutions and organisations, have outlined legal and regulatory provisions in sending and recipient countries as being a factor that often hinders migrants from accessing formal financial services. This dissertation examines how the South African legal and regulatory framework affects the formalisation of remittances by migrant labourers, with a focus on the context of low-income migrants. The study identifies the Exchange control, immigration, anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism legislative provisions as being the most significant provisions that affect the formalisation of migrant remittances. So as to make an analysis and gather recommendations were possible, a comparison of the South African legal and regulatory provisions is made to those of Zambia and Zimbabwe. The dissertation comes to the conclusion that South African legal and regulatory provisions hinder the formalisation of migrant remittances to a certain extent. They do so by collectively and individually restricting migrants who do not fulfill legislative requisites from accessing formal remittance channels. It is submitted that such migrants are inclined to rely on informal remittance mechanisms when the need to send money arises. Furthermore, South African law restricts competition within the remittance market by making it difficult for service providers to enter the market. The lack of an adequate competitive level fosters the prevalence of high remittance costs which can pose a significant barrier to low income migrants that wish to channel funds via formal means. Taking into mind the significance of formalising remittances as well as the objectives that the laws that hinder them seek to attain, which are equally significant, it is necessary for the regulatory authorities to investigate ways on how to possibly cater for both. It is submitted that if more remittances were to be channeled through official means the objectives sought to be attained by some of these legislative provisions would be attained more efficiently.

This study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility and misalignment on economic growth in South Africa. It applies the Johansen co integration test and the vector error correction model on quarterly data for the period 1990:01-2010:04. Exchange rate volatility is measured as the standard deviation of both the nominal and nominal effective exchange rate. The study constructs three measures of exchange rate misalignment, with two of the measures constructed using the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price index based Purchasing Power Parity. The third measure was based on the difference between the nominal and effective exchange rate. Contrary to pre-dominant findings in the exchange rate literature, the study finds a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth and attributes it to composition of the country’s exports that are largely made up of commodities that act as essential inputs in many production processes. As a result, the variability of prices caused by exchange rate volatility is not expected to deter demand for these commodities. A negative and significant relationship between exchange rate misalignment and economic growth was found. The findings of the study show that it is important for monetary authorities to ensure that the exchange rate is always at an appropriate level in order to avoid the negative implications of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth.