Thesis (LL. M.)--University of Toronto, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (D. Admin.(Public administration))-University of Pretoria, 2005. / Abstract in English. Includes bibliographical references. Available on the Internet via the World Wide Web.

Inaug.-Diss.--Bonn. / Vita. Bibliography: p. 215-228.

Part I of this thesis is concerned with providing an explanation for the absence of an international monetary agreement since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. The analysis centers around the proposition that the potential gains are not sufficiently large to induce countries to engage in cooperative exchange rate management. The analysis is undertaken in the context of a two country model in which the monetary authorities of each country intervene in the foreign exchange market with the objective of stabilizing domestic consumption and prices. Non-cooperative behaviour is characterized in terms of the equilibrium intervention strategies associated with Cournot and Stackelberg games, as well as a game in which each player correctly anticipates the responses of his opponent; the principal form of cooperative behaviour considered is the agreement to participate in joint loss minimization. The results of the numerical simulations, used to compare the losses associated with cooperative and non-cooperative intervention strategies, support the proposition that countries behave non-cooperatively because the gains from policy coordination are too small to extract a cooperative effort. The primary objective of Part II is to formulate a quantitative measure of exchange market intervention that- can be used to classify exchange rate practices and to conduct empirical studies of exchange rate policy. The measure that is proposed in this study is an index of exchange market intervention which characterizes exchange rate policy as the proportion of exchange market pressure that is alleviated by an endogenous change in the domestic money supply. Exchange market pressure is measured using a model-consistent generalization of the Girton and Roper (1977) formulation. In order to provide a basis of comparison for future empirical work, the proposed measures of exchange market pressure and exchange market intervention are calculated quarterly for Canada, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States over the period 1973(I) - 1984(IV). Estimates are obtained for each country on the basis of a multiple-partner small open economy model as well as a model in which interdependence among trading partners is explicitly incorporated. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

Analysis of the evolution in Turkish identity and foreign Policy.

After eight years under the Bretton Woods system, Canada returned to a regime of flexible exchange rates in May 1970. Over the remainder of the decade many other countries joined Canada in adopting flexible rates, and this movement has opened up a fertile new area for study by economists. This dissertation examines the Canadian foreign exchange market from several different points of view. It begins by comparing a number of theoretical models currently found in the literature, showing the common theoretical core from which the models are derived, as well as the differences among them. The models are then estimated using Canadian and U.S. quarterly data over the period 1971-78, and compared to one another on the basis of fit. The dissertation then turns to the question of prediction. Using the models discussed above, and time-series forecasts of the explanatory variables, monthly forecasts of three-month-ahead exchange rates are constructed for the period 1974-78. Care is taken to ensure that all forecasts are based only on information available to the market at the time the forecast was to have been made. The forecasts of the three-month-ahead exchange rate are compared to one another and also to the three-month forward rate, which is taken to be the market's forecast of the future value of the exchange rate. It is shown that the models' forecasts and the forward rate each contain separate information valuable in forecasting the future spot rate. The models and the forward rate are combined to produce a set of 'optimal' forecasts. The final chapter of the dissertation focuses on speculation and market efficiency. It is shown that the forecasts can be combined with a crude betting strategy to produce speculative profits over the sixty periods from 1974-78. No conventional measure of risk can be constructed, but it is shown that the probability of mean returns being negative after sixty bets is less than one percent. When transaction costs are taken into account, speculative returns are reduced, but the probability of average returns being negative after sixty bets remains less than one percent. Thus all of the estimated models appear to contain information that was not efficiently used by participants in the foreign exchange market between 1974 and 1978. Subsequent research will be required to tell whether this represents a learning period for market participants, or whether exchange market participants will continue to undervalue available information. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

This study examines the contours of Turkish-American foreign relations in the post-Cold War era from 1990 to 2005. While providing an interpretive analysis, the study highlights elements of continuity and change and of convergence and divergence in the relationship between Ankara and Washington. Turkey’s encounter with its Kurdish problem at home intertwined with the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish authority in northern Iraq after the Gulf War that left a political vacuum in the region. The main argument of this dissertation is that the Kurdish question has been the central element in shaping and redefining the nature and scope of Turkish-American relations since 1991. This study finds that systemic factors primarily prevail in the early years of the post-Cold War Turkish-American relations, as had been the case during the Cold War era. However, the Turkish parliament’s rejection of the deployment of the U.S. troops in Turkey for the invasion of Iraq in 2003 could not be explained by the primacy of distribution of capabilities in the system. Instead, the role of identity, ideology, norms, and the socialization of agency through interaction and language must be considered. The Justice and Development Party’s ascension to power in 2002 magnified a wider transformation in domestic and foreign politics and reflected changes in Turkey’s own self-perception and the definition of its core interests towards the United States.

No description available.

Ph.D.--Boston University. / In wartime Great Britain, diplomacy's main efforts were directed toward bringing the war to a successful conclusion, The Foreign Office played a role secondary to that of the Admiralty and the War Office; diplomatic success, in many ways, depended on success in battle, The geographical position of the Netherlands made it one of the key countries in western Europe, located between the greatest land power on the continent and the greatest maritime power in the world, the Dutch had to find the correct balance in international diplomacy in order to maintain both their independence and their neutrality. This was a difficult task because the Netherlands depended on commerce for its wealth and even its very existence, The problem for the British Foreign Office was how to carry on the war against Germany and German trade, much of which was transshipped through the Netherlands, without ruining the Dutch economy or pushing the Dutch people into the arms of Germany. In the early days of August 1914, Sir Edward Grey, the British Foreign Secretary, momentarily tried to convince the Dutch that they should enter the war, He made an offer of 'common action' but within a matter of hours withdrew it, probably because he saw that the British armed forces would not be able to protect the Dutch against a German invasion, He and his successor, Arthur J, Balfour, maintained for the rest of the war that Great Britain should not encourage the Dutch to [TRUNCATED]

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