Traditional literature on energy economics gives a central role to exogenous political events (supply shocks) or to global economic growth (aggregate demand shock) in modeling the oil market. However, more recent literature claims that the increased precautionary demand for oil triggered by increased uncertainty about a future oil supply shortfall is also driving the price of oil. Based on this motivation, in the first chapter, we propose to build a DSGE model to explore macroeconomic consequences of precautionary demand motives in the crude oil market. The intuition behind the precautionary demand is that since firms, using oil as an input in their production process, are concerned about the future oil prices, it is reasonable to think that in the case of uncertainty about future oil supply (such as a highly expected war in the Middle East), they will buy futures and/or forward contracts to guarantee a future price and quantity. We simulate the effects of demand shocks in the oil market on macroeconomic variables, such as GDP and inflation. We find that under baseline Taylor-type interest rate rule, real oil price, inflation and output loss overshoot and go down below steady state at the next period if uncertainties are not realized. However, if the shock is realized, i.e. followed by an actual supply shock, the effect on inflation and output loss is high and persistent. Second chapter analyzes the effect of storage market on the monetary policy formulation as a response to an oil price shock. Some recent literature suggests that although high oil prices contributed to recessions, they have never had a pivotal role in the creation of those economic downturns. A general consensus is that the decline in output and employment was due to the rise in interest rates, resulting from the Fed’s endogenous response to the higher inflation induced by oil price shocks. However, traditional literature assumes that oil price shocks are exogenous to the U.S economy and they ignore the storage market for the crude oil. In this regard, a model with an endogenous (demand shock) or exogenous (supply shock) price shock may produce a totally different monetary policy proposal when there exists a market for storage for the crude oil. The rationale behind this idea is that when goods’ prices are sticky in the economy, the monetary authority can effect the level of inventories through the changes in the real interest rates. Thus, lower interest rate rules, as proposed in the literature, will cause additional oil supply scarcity in the spot market. Therefore, an optimal monetary policy that maximizes the welfare in the economy should consider the adverse affect of low interest rates on the crude oil market.

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This study mainly explores the effect of market states (price and returns) on the relationship between spot and futures oil prices and targets three important issues: long-run cointegration, causalities, and market efficiency. Based on previous studies exhibiting bi-directional causality between spot and futures oil prices, this study employs quantile regressions to examine the possible feedback effect in their long-run cointegration and their causalities. In particular, it allows for exploring the possible asymmetric responses between spot and futures markets. The empirical results herein find that the long-run cointegrated relationship between contemporaneous spot and futures prices is impacted by the states of the spot markets. Similarly, whether futures oil prices lead spot oil prices is relevant with the states of the futures markets. This study also examines the efficiency of crude oil markets and shows that the efficiency is related to the length of futures contracts. These findings offer some implicative suggestions and strategies.

The efficiency of commodity futures markets is a widely debated topic in academia. The cotton futures market is no exception. The existence of trends in the futures market is characterized as a price bias, which is a testable trait. When analyzed, it allows a better understanding of market behavior and allows implementation of more effective income enhancing and/or risk reducing strategies. Three different approaches will be used to test the efficiency of the U.S. cotton futures market: pricing patterns, cointegration, and asset-pricing. In the first approach, pricing patterns, statistical methodology was applied to a dataset of daily futures prices. Returns did not show a consistent trend, supporting arguments of efficiency. Further research into seasonally-differentiated contracts has yielded strong evidence of declining prices. This result differs from previously published work in the most comprehensive study of futures prices, while updating and extending information on pricing patterns in the cotton futures market. Co-integration, the second approach, is a popular method for testing the efficiency of various commodity future and cash markets. Evidence indicates that the cotton futures and cash markets are co-integrated over the last ten years. Results lead to the conclusion that price is discovered in the cotton futures market, reinforcing the notion of an efficient cotton futures market that serves as an indicator for future cotton cash prices. The cotton futures market was also analyzed to explain price movements with an equilibrium asset-pricing framework, in the third approach. In particular, the cotton futures market was analyzed to determine if behavior displayed by the market could be explained by risks specific to the cotton futures contract. Cotton futures do not show significant risk premiums over other financial assets, again supporting the efficient market hypothesis. The three approaches implemented in this thesis are generally supportive of longrun efficiency in the U.S. cotton futures market. An updated analysis of the cotton futures market will allow market participants the most recent information on pricing patterns and the overall long-run behavior of the market. More effective trading and operating strategies can be implemented that will best meet needs of market participants.

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Abstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign capital on the interrelationship between the stock markets and futures markets of Hong Kong, Malaysia and Taiwan. Malaysia stock market is under Exchange Control Mechanism, (ECM) while Taiwan futures market under foreign capital deregulation, both markets has extremely serious influence. The investment behavior of foreign capital, as superior informed investors, always imply their expectation to both stock and futures markets. Thus, this paper attempts to focus on three topics to analyze the investment behavior of the foreign capital. First, whether the degree of intervene of the foreign capital influences the lead-lag relationship. Second, whether after intervene of the foreign capital influence the lead-lag relationship, and third, whether the foreign capital net buying (selling) amount in the stock market influence the basis after deregulation of the Taiwan futures markets. This paper found that under over intervention on futures markets would restrained the stock index futures from price discovered, and after Taiwan futures markets deregulation, foreign capital net buying (selling) amount in the stock market does influence the basis. This study propose both Taiwan stock and futures markets exists foreign capital positive feedback trading.

With the trend to globalization and undergone the 2008 Financial Storm, the capital markets worldwide have faced ever changing and unprecedented challenges. Most major futures exchanges have therefore adjusted their structures, changed operation models, acquired their competitors, or partnered with other derivative exchanges. Through these efforts, we know that global futures markets have been marching on an overall revolution. Only through reinforcement of its own advantages, setting a long term strategy, basing on its strength in product research and market promotion, can one ensure its competitiveness in the world. This research focuses on the development of the worldwide futures industry, the positioning and strategics of major exchanges, utilizing tools such as FIVE FORCE model, SWOT model to analyze TAIFEX¡¦s current operation conditions and core value, so as to raise the efficiency and value of TAIFEX. It also refers to the experiences and strategies of other major futures exchanges, setting the long term goal for TAIFEX, in order to gain its competitiveness under the trends of globalization and electronic trading. The research concluded that TAIFEX has currently faced the predicament of products centralization and saturation of domestic demand. Products centralization can be resolved through the continuous launch of more new products. However, the success of the new products lies upon the domestic demand. After careful evaluation, among all the new products that under research that might be launched, currency futures and stock futures can meet the requirements of the local markets. The interest futures is unlikely to be launched in the foreseeable future under the current Central Bank¡¦s policy. Whereas the stock futures has the advantages of simplicity in trading and easy promotion, it might raise the issue of substitution with the the securities loans business. Therefore, this research suggests that TAIFEX should put more efforts on the market promotion and enhancement of the depth and broadness of the existing products. Given that the current market is saturated, other than reinforcing its leading position in the Taiwan market, TAIFEX should collaborate with other futures exchanges and strengthen its cooperation with the Chinese futures industry, so as to open a new era into the future and fulfill its goal of economic efficiency.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2002. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 109-119).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2001. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

The detrimental environmental effects associated with fashion production and consumption are increasingly recognised, and strategies in place. However, these are production-focused, top-down strategies, which do not reach where the impact is highest - the user phase, or where the scope for improvement is utmost - the design phase. A growing body of academic research, and a niche representation of practitioners have responded by developing lifecycle and whole systems approaches. This PhD thesis seeks to expand on and bring this knowledge to the unexplored domain of the highest impact – the fashion industry’s mass-market segment. Trend-forecasting is integral to the fashion design process, and supports the organisation’s commercial endeavours. This thesis explores the potential of trend-forecasting as a positive agent of change for environmental improvement at systemic level in the fashion industry’s mass-market segment. The first empirical study, Stage 1, is diagnostic and exploratory, mapping the interactions that currently exist between trend-forecasting, fashion design and environmental work. The findings and emergent theories formed the basis for a novel methodology compatible with trend-forecasting methods, processes in fashion design, and the inclusive and transformative processes implicit in sustainability. Stage 2 applies this methodology in an experimental study - a series of creative workshops with mixed fashion industry stakeholder groups in the UK and Sweden. Set in 2026, the workshops explore how the underlying proposition “what if fashion and sustainability were compatible or even synergistic?” could affect attitudinal change, and what its generative potential could be. The study shows that a richer knowledge ecology can foster proactive discussions in the realm of sustainability and fashion. It also reveals how a futures perspective and creative approach can unleash the application of fashion professionals’ skills at strategic and systemic levels. The research resulted in recommendations for the application of the new trend-forecasting methodology on a larger scale.