Includes bibliographical references (leaves 106-111). / The Breede River catchment in the South Western Cape is already under pressure for its water resources due to its supporting a variety of different land uses. The predominant land use in this catchment is agriculture, which demands the majority of river water for irrigation. The Department of Water Affairs and Forestry are currently investigating the future demand for water from the river, in this respect it is important to know what effect climate change will have on the change in river flow. Self Organising Maps (SOMs) are used to identify changes in the circulation systems contributing to the rainfall of the region and from this the potential change is assessed for the Breede River flow under future climate change. It is assessed that the runoff in the Breede River is expected to change under all the models of ECHAM4, CSIRO and HadAM. The magnitude of this alteration is calculated by using the change in the SOM node frequencies between the present and the future data. This is then subtracted from the present runoff data supplied by DWAF. A source of runoff decrease in the future is agricultural irrigation. The increase in irrigation under climate change is determined by inserting future climate data into an agricultural model. Once the increased amount of water used in irrigation is determined, it is subtracted from the projected future runoff. From this it is determined whether the river will be ecologically sustainable under climate change.

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Worldwide adaptive strategies are being developed to address water insecurity. The current path of water resource management is not sustainable in the long-term, which requires the investigation of improved and adapted strategies. However, adaptation theory is proving difficult to implement. A range of serious practical issues are emerging as adaptation moves from theory to implementation. One of these is that the implementation of water demand management strategies are not aligned with the needs of the water users. Improvement can effectively enhance the success of water demand management, especially in cases where a water institution’s focus differs from the priorities identified by the water users. The aim of this thesis is to examine and analyse the role of participative water demand management in complex socio-institutional systems theory, and its potential to ameliorate adaptive capacity within the system in response to increasing water stresses. The research methodology consists of a literature review as well as a case study. The literature review include a discussion on the key concepts of adaptation theory, participative water demand management, and complex socio-institutional systems theory, amongst others. The case study contributed towards a practical understanding of the main aim of this thesis. The case study was undertaken in the City of Cape Town (CCT), which is a large metropolitan municipality in South Africa, a developing country. The theory suggested that individual behaviours can impact on water demands, especially during periods of drought, and that communication, participation and feedback among the social and institutional components must therefore form part of the adaptive strategies within water demand management. The literature alluded to a complex systems approach to water demand management, which can assist the different socio-institutional actors to increase their understanding of complex interactions and their capacity to adapt to these. A main empirical finding of the thesis is that adaptive measures, such as participation, is of paramount importance to the long-term sustainability of water demand management within the CCT, but are mostly lacking within its current management system. The results indicated that participative water demand management, as part of a suit of adaptive strategies, is able to increase flexibility within the CCT to address droughts more efficiently. Although water demand management in itself is an adaptive strategy to manage constraints on water resources, there is still a gap in finding better and more effective implementation methods to improve its acceptance by society and its success rates at reducing water demand. This thesis contributed towards new theoretical knowledge about adaptive theory, complex systems theory and participative water demand management as an adaptive response. It generated new thinking that contributes to improved and sustainable implementation of water demand management strategies within a developmental agenda that knows no bounds.

Includes abstract. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 119-144). / In the continuing quest to improve climate model predictions to meet the increasing demand for knowledge on the regional effects of global climate change, it is pertinent to increase our understanding of how the underlying processes of climate are represented in the models we use to make these predictions. Concerted efforts in model evaluations and intercomparison have provided numerous insights into various model biases which plague current state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs). Model evaluation and assessment is crucial to model development and understanding how physical processes are represented in models is necessary for improving model parameterizations. This thesis explored model transferability as a new approach for systematic process-based intercomparison of RCMs. It investigated an untested transferability hypothesis which states that “for non-monsoon regions experiencing weak synoptic scale forcing, the height of the cloud base is correlated with the daytime surface fluxes”. An initial transferability experiment was conducted over Cabauw, the Netherlands (51.97°N, 4.93°E) to assess the models’ skill in resolving the diurnal and seasonal cycles and to investigate the simulated connections between surface and hydrometeorological variables over a non-monsoon station. The ability of models to resolve these cycles correctly is a good metric of their predictive capabilities. The data used for the study comprises three-hourly surface observations for the period October 2002 – December 2004 from the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) measuring campaigns of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and three-year simulations (2002 -2004) from five RCMs (CLM, GEMLAM, MRCC, RCA3 and RSM). In simulating seasonal and diurnal cycles of CBH and surface variables, the European models (CLM and RCA3) demonstrate a clear home advantage over the North American models (GEMLAM, MRCC and RSM). Principal component analysis revealed that the models couple the cloud base height with surface fluxes as in observations and that this coupling is not sensitive to changes in wind speed. This study found that summer daytime loadings gave the strongest couplings of variables. Three major processes were identified over Cabauw. First and most dominant is the surface energy process which couples sensible and latent heat with net radiation. The second process is thermodynamic, coupling temperature and surface moisture (specific humidity), and the third is a dynamic process which couples pressure and wind speed. A model intercomparison was then carried out across the six midlatitude domains to test the validity of the Cabauw findings. In observations, CBH is well coupled with the surface fluxes over Cabauw, Bondville, Lamont and BERMS, but coupled only with temperature over Lindenberg and Tongyu. All the models (except GEMLAM) simulated a good coupling with surface fluxes at all stations. In GEMLAM, there is no coupling between CBH and surface fluxes at any station. In less homogenous domains of the study, a very slight decrease in the strength of coupling is seen in most of the models, under strong large scale forcing. This would suggest that the coupling between cloud base height and surface fluxes in the models is possibly more influenced by radiative forcing than by synoptic controls. This second study confirmed the findings at Cabauw that the simulated cloud base is correlated with surface energy fluxes and the sign of the correlations in the models is as in observations. This finding is important for the modeling community as it establishes the fact that the models are actually simulating the direction of influence of surface fluxes and possibly, soil water variability, on cloud processes.

Includes bibliographical references. / Research on poverty and food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa has tended to focus on rural households and urban areas known to have concentrations of low-income households. However, consequences and effects of the recent global economic crisis such as retrenchment coupled with increasing food and fuel prices have played a major role in generating many newly poor households. The economic crisis came at a time when most developing countries were still struggling with impoverishment mainly caused by Structural Adjustment Programs (SAP). SAPs laid bare the acute vulnerability of the urban dwellers to the slightest addition al shock such as economic shocks or high food prices. In view of these effects, this study was conducted in Chingola in the Copperbelt Province of Zambia to examine the impact of economic shocks on the food security of middle class households in urban areas. Focusing on one aspect of the economic shock (retrenchments), the thesis shows how once middle class households in Chingola perceived, experienced and grappled with retrenchment in the context of increasing urban poverty and high food prices. The central thesis is that due to the rising pattern of urban risk, it is not only the rural or structural urban poor that are vulnerable to food insecurity but middle class urban households too. The study employed a mixed-method approach, which took place in two main sequential data collection phases - the quantitative component served as a basis for the sampling of cases for the qualitative component. The findings revealed that food security of the retrenched households was compromised by the economic crisis with approximately 7.4 % food secure, 4.2% mildly food insecure, 19 .1 % moderately food insecure and 69 .3 % severely food insecure. A compounding factor was that there were insufficient social protection services by government and NGOs to assist households to increase resilience to food insecurity. To survive, households employed close to thirty different strategies and tactics such as letting their houses, limiting their consumption and engaging in lucrative but unlawful activities - illegal mining, prostitution and theft. In light of these findings, the study makes a contribution to urban development and specifically to the emerging field of urban food security as it departs from the more traditional focus on the ‘old poor’ by giving specific attention to previously middle income households’ food security in the context of widespread economic shocks within the formal economy. Furthermore, it contributes to the debate on retrenchment literature by providing new information, for example, on how urban dwellers deal with shocks and the mechanisms used to help them survive in a globalised environment. Lastly, the study contributes to literature on the livelihoods of Copperbelt residents as very few scholars have explored the lives of the residents since the implementation of SAPs and the subsequent economic decline in the area.

Includes abstract. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 226-252). / Fisheries compliance theory has evolved over the past two decades in an attempt to understand the factors that influence fishers’ behaviour and to develop appropriate strategies to enhance compliance. However, much of this research, which draws on both rationalist and normative perspectives, has largely focussed on the industrial fisheries. Empirical research on the small-scale fisheries sector, therefore, has been lacking. The overall aim of this thesis has been to develop a conceptual framework for understanding and addressing small-scale fisheries compliance by drawing on experiences in South Africa. This has been achieved through a detailed investigation of two small-scale fisheries case studies, as well as a review of the small-scale fisheries sector generally. The findings from this research have emphasised the need to rethink ourunderstanding of fisheries compliance in the small-scale sector. By drawing onempirical evidence, as well as the literature review, a conceptual framework has beendeveloped that enhances existing compliance theory. This study highlights that anunderstanding of compliance behaviour first requires a critical analysis of how lawhas evolved, its history and the power dynamics that have shaped it. The conceptualframework further emphasises the need to understand compliance within a fisherysystem, acknowledging that social, economic, institutional and biophysical factors allimpact on whether or not fishers’ comply with rules and laws. By applying theconceptual framework to two case studies in South Africa, key drivers that influencefisher behaviour over time are identified and changes within the fishery system areanalysed and documented. This thesis has also contributed to fisheries compliancetheory by identifying the underlying principles that are seen as necessary to guide an alternative and more integrated approach to small-scale fisheries compliance. In addition to the principles of legitimacy and deterrence, which are incorporated into existing theories of compliance, this study emphasises that the principle of social justice is required to develop a more holistic approach to understanding and addressing small-scale fisheries compliance. By embracing these principles, it is argued that fisheries policies will shift away from a sole reliance on criminal justice to achieve compliance, to a more integrated approach that aims to sustain the fishery system as a whole.

Includes bibliographical references. / Natural sacred sites are areas protected by traditional groups as a point of connection to the land. They are also acknowledged for their disproportionate biodiversity contribution. These natural remnant patches have, however, recently come under threat from surrounding anthropogenic land-uses. This study aims to establish the spatial landscape pattern and associated land-uses surrounding the Venda sacred site of Thathe Forest in north-eastern Limpopo, South Africa, while investigating links to landscape governance. A terrain analysis of the study area is conducted using the thematic layers of geology and soils, gradient, aspect, and hydrology. This analysis is contrasted with a land-cover classification of the study area, further linking results to land-use decision-making.

Cities are increasingly important actors in the current International System. Cities fall under the jurisdiction of States where they play a fundamental role in the making and consolidation of emerging powers. In today’s State-centred International System, cities are underexamined in the field of foreign policy, a domain that is exclusively that of national governments. Using the cases of Colombia (Bogotá) and South Africa (Johannesburg), this thesis draws from multilingual sources to examine the role of cities in the foreign policy of emerging powers of the Global South. An interdisciplinary approach indicates that, by drawing together debates across International Relations and Urban Studies literature, there is little to no place for the conceptual and operational cross pollination necessary to engage the increasing importance of cities in the emerging powers of the Global South. The weak interface between cities and States in foreign policy is thus failing to inform local-national government interactions over global positioning and masks critical national actors in the evolution of cities. Through a geopolitical analysis, this thesis engages the conceptual and operational ambiguity around 'emerging powers’ by demonstrating how at both the national and city scale notions of 'power resources’, 'leadership’ and 'international recognition’ are actualised in the emerging powers of Colombia and South Africa. By tracking the ways that Bogotá and Johannesburg operate internationally, cities are, despite the lack of formal acknowledgement or endorsement of the nations’ foreign affairs machinery, shown to be crucial contributors to their countries’ emergence in the world. An analysis of primary sources in both Colombia and South Africa shows a mismatch between the city and the State in foreign policy caused by dynamics occurring both at national and local levels. The constitutional and legal ambiguities on decentralisation and foreign policy found in Colombia and South Africa make it extremely difficult to determine the how far sub-national entities can go in their burgeoning international engagements. The State-centred approach to foreign policy that is found in both countries contributes greatly to a general disregard for the city in international relations. Finally, the thesis reveals how the increased importance of cities in the global agenda and the proliferation of international associations of cities provides emerging cities such as Bogotá or Johannesburg with an alternative space in which to defend their own city interests without the help of the national governments. The thesis concludes by demonstrating that, while it is important that national governments make sure cities have a voice in the International System, changes also need to be made at the domestic level, both in national and local governments, in order to achieve functioning levels of understanding and co-operation between the city and the State in the making and implementation of the foreign policy of emerging powers.

Includes bibliographical references. / Customary systems of marine resource governance have gained increasing attention internationally in the past three decades. Notwithstanding this, and despite the Constitutional recognition of customary governance and customary law in South Africa, the post-apartheid legislative reforms in the fisheries sector have failed to recognise customary systems of marine resource governance. Drawing on a case-study of the Dwesa-Cwebe community in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, this research aimed to describe and understand the customary marine resource governance system of this community and its relationship to living customary law. It explores how this customary system of marine resource governance has interfaced with statutory and other systems of law in the past and how it continues to develop in the current context. The findings from this research highlight the distinctive nature of the customary system of marine resource governance practiced by the community of Dwesa-Cwebe and their expressions of living customary law embedded in this governance system. The nature of this system is foundationally different to that of a Western statutory governance system. This customary system of governance has interacted with the statutory system for over a century, in part distorted by this system but retaining its integrity. In the context of the Constitutional recognition of customary systems of governance and customary law, this governance system now requires understanding and recognition in a new system of marine resource governance in South Africa. This thesis explores the contribution that this system of customary governance can make towards promoting socially just smallscale fisheries in South Africa. It argues that harmonisation of the statutory and customary system of marine resource governance demands an approach to governance theory and practice that is able to imagine an alternative ‘ecology of governance’.

Includes bibliography. / Investigating the recreational carrying capacity of a new coastal national park in South Africa was the initial problem to be addressed. However, an examination of the concept and attempts to operationalize it shows clearly that it is illusory. Instead, the problem is conceived of as a process in which decisions about the allocation of recreation opportunities in the landscape must be made. ·The dissertation examines the complexities of decision-making in the face of multiple objectives, a spectrum of values, the uncertainties of predicting environmental impacts and the influence of the subjective values and preferences of decision makers. This leads to the conclusion that a framework is required to guide the recreation opportunity allocation decision process. This framework is to be systematic, comprehensive and above all, explicit. The subjective nature of the decision process is given overt recognition, and the role of science in environmental decision-making put in perspective. A tiered recreation planning system is proposed. At the scale of a single area such as a national park, two levels of planning are seen as necessary. The dissertation is largely concerned with elaborating an area-level procedure for allocating recreation "packages" or opportunities in the landscape. The procedure proposed combines the approach of the Limits of Acceptable Change planning system with techniques from decision analysis, to structure the subjective aspects of the process, and techniques of land evaluation to systematize the ecological basis for recreation planning in landscapes of particular conservation importance. A second, detailed level of planning at the site and recreation activity scale is proposed as being necessary, but is not developed further in the dissertation. The Limits of Acceptable Change process defines a range of recreation opportunity classes in terms of social and resource conditions and managerial approaches necessary to maintain these conditions. Environmental quality standards for each class are formulated to monitor compliance with the objectives for each class. These recreation opportunity classes must be allocated in the landscape. A decision tree is constructed to expose the actual process by which recreation opportunity classes are spatially designated. The decision-tree comprises a tiered series of questions, the answers to which are decided by explicitly defined decision rules or criteria. The basis of these decision rules are the analyst's interpretation of the data available on the system. This decision-making process was tested on the Weskus National Park at Langebaan on the Cape West coast of South Africa. It was found to be effective in allocating recreation opportunities in the landscape, and offers a defensible planning strategy for conservation agencies operating under time and financial constraints in the face of an increasingly environmentally aware and articulate public.