<p>The discharge from Lake Mälaren is regulated to keep the lake water level within limits set by a water decree. Despite this, in the year 2000 the lake water level rose above the upper limit. Studies conducted at the climate modeling unit Rossby Centre at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) indicate that the inflow to the lake may increase in the future. A flood in the area will, among other things, strike infrastructure and residential districts.</p><p>The aim of this study was to investigate the water levels of Lake Mälaren in future climates. In addition to this possible future expansion of the lake discharge though the sluice gates in order to keep water levels below limits set by the water decree and to prevent flooding of the shoreline were discussed. This was done by examining past lake and sea water level data and by using a discharge model to simulate future lake water levels resulting from high future inflow. The study was commissioned by SMHI.</p><p>High lake water levels were reproduced fairly well by the discharge model, whereas it was more difficult to draw any coclusions concerning low lake water levels. The examination of data on past lake water levels demonstrated that the regulation of the lake discharge caused a reduction of the highest lake water levels, but above all an increase of low lake water levels. Data on past sea levels in the Baltic Sea showed high values during wintertime. In combination with future high inflow to Lake Mälaren during this season, this indicates that the greatest future flood risk may prevail during wintertime. The conclusion from the simulated future lake water levels was that the lake discharge needs to be expanded to prevent flood in the area. In all scenarios examined in this study, the lake water level will not rise above the upper limit set by the water decree if the discharge is increased to 1 370 m3/s, which almost corresponds to a doubling of the existing discharge of 710 m3/s.</p> / <p>Mälarens utlopp är reglerat för att kunna hålla vattenståndet inom acceptabla gränser. Trots regleringen översteg vattenståndet under vintern 2000/01 den högsta föreskrivna nivån i regleringsbestämmelserna. Studier som bedrivs på klimatforskningsavdelningen Rossby Centre på SMHI pekar på att det framtida inflödet till Mälaren kan komma att bli högre än vad det är idag, något som skulle innebära ännu högre vattennivåer i Mälaren.</p><p>En omfattande översvämning av Mälarens stränder går bland annat ut över infrastruktur och bostäder. Problemet idag är att avbördningen genom sjöns utskov är för liten för att förhindra att översvämning uppstår. Att försöka skydda Stockholm mot vattnet med hjälp av skyddsmurar och invallning skulle bli alltför kostsamt. Ett bättre alternativ är istället att öka avtappningskapaciteten genom slussarna.</p><p>Syftet med det här arbetet var att undersöka hur vattennivån i Mälaren kan komma att bli i ett framtida förändrat klimat. I samband med detta gavs ett underlag för diskussioner om kommande utbyggnader av Mälarens utlopp för att kunna hålla vattennivån under vattendomens högsta föreskrivna nivå även vid ett högre framtida inflöde. Detta uppnåddes genom att genomföra analyser med historiska vattenståndsdata och genom att använda en beräkningsmodell för avtappning, Mälarmodellen, för simulering av ett antal framtida inflödessituationer. Arbetet har genomförts på uppdrag av SMHI.</p><p>Avtappningsmodellen återskapade de höga vattenstånden förhållandevis väl, medan det var svårare att bedöma hur precist den beräknade de allra lägsta vattennivåerna. Ett viktigt resultat från analysen med historiska data var att införandet av regleringen av Mälarens utlopp bidrog till att sänka de höga vattenstånden, men framförallt till att höja de låga. Ett annat resultat från studierna av historiska data var att vattenståndet i Östersjön antar högst nivåer under vintern. Detta i kombination med ett framtida högre inflöde till Mälaren under denna årstid indikerar att störst risk för översvämning kan komma att föreligga under vintern. För att säkert kunna hålla Mälarens vattennivå inom acceptabla gränser måste sjöns utlopp byggas ut. I alla scenarier som har undersökts i det här arbetet kan vattennivån hållas under den högsta föreskrivna nivån om avbördningen utökas till 1 370 m3/s. Det krävs alltså nästan en fördubbling av dagens avbördningskapacitet på 710 m3/s.</p>

Traffic jams are the cause of approximately 25 billion euro of annual expenses of the state of Germany [14, 26]. In addition to these monetary damages they also have a negative effect on the quality of life for man and nature. They are, for example, the source of a non-negligible part of the 2.4 billion traffic accidents with damage of property or persons registered annually [13]. Circa 14 % of crashes result from previous mishaps [8, 26]. Almost all of them cause further jam formation and therefore a vicious circle which is in danger of closing around. Especially jams being created from spontaneous, non-periodic incidents involve a high risk of ending in a gridlock and thereby disrupt a whole traffic system. Because these disturbances are unpredictable and unpreventable, their duration and impact can merely be reduced by an effective incident management through the systematic, planned and coordinated use of institutional, technical and natural resources. The self-healing-network-strategy by Lämmer [19] and Rausch [27] is one example of such a countermeasure against jam formation in urban road networks. It prevents gridlocks at intersections by means of traffic lights and the combination of two effective mechanisms. Extended off-times prevent the inflow into oversaturated sections and so the expansion of tailbacks onto upstream intersections. Extended green periods of alternative directions of travel motivate drivers to avoid disturbed sectors and thus additionally allow a better exploitation of available free capacities. The development and successful establishment of this method could make the use of ramp metering in urban networks - which is regulating the inflow of oversaturated areas by reducing or skipping green times as well - invalid. To answer this question the presented master’s thesis aims at comparing both inflow-regulating control concepts. However, it is not the ambition to proof that one method is worse than the other, but to contribute to an ideal combination of both instead - with the intention to eliminate deficits on either side. Therefore both concepts will be reviewed in a first step and subsequently the contribution of additional effects against gridlock creation through the symbiosis of the two traffic light controls is analysed. Furthermore, several suggestions for the development of an efficient ramp metering logic are introduced to configure this combination to be more beneficial. / Verkehrsstaus verursachen dem deutschen Staat jährlich rund 25 Milliarden Euro Unkosten [14, 26]. Neben diesen monetären Schäden wirken sie sich jedoch auch negativ auf die Lebensqualität von Mensch und Umwelt aus. Sie sind beispielsweise die Ursache für einen nicht unerheblichen Anteil der circa 2,4 Milliarden jährlich registrierten Unfälle mit Sach- oder Personenschaden [13]. Rund 14 % der Unglücksfälle gehen dabei als Folgeerscheinung eines vorherigen Unfalls hervor [8, 26]. Nahezu alle führen eine weitere Staubildung herbei und somit einen Teufelskreis, der sich zu schließen droht. Besonders aus spontanen, nicht wiederkehrenden Störfällen entstandene Staubildung birgt eine hohes Risiko, in einem Gridlock zu enden und damit ein gesamtes innerstädtisches Verkehrssystem zum Erliegen zu bringen. Da diese Störfälle unvorhersehbar und unvermeidbar sind, kann ihrer Dauer und ihrem Einfluss lediglich ein effizientes Störfallmanagement durch systematischen, gezielten und koordinierten Gebrauch institutioneller, technischer und natürlicher Ressourcen entgegenwirken. Beispiel für eine solche Gegenmaßnahme zur Staubildung in urbanen Netzen ist das selbstorganisierte Störfallmanagement nach Lämmer [19] und Rausch [27]. Mithilfe von LSA und der Kombination zweier effektiver Wirkungsmechanismen werden Gridlocks an Knotenpunkten unterbunden. Verlängerte Sperrzeiten verhindern den Zufluss in übersättigte Streckenabschnitte und damit die Ausbreitung von Rückstaus auf vorgelagerte Kreuzungen. Erweiterte Freigabezeiten der alternativen Fahrtrichtungen regen wiederum eine Umgehung des gestörten Abschnitts an und ermöglichen somit zusätzlich die bessere Ausschöpfung vorhandener freier Kapazitäten. Durch die Entwicklung und den erfolgreichen Einsatz der genannten Maßnahme könnte der Gebrauch von Pförtnerampeln (PA), welche den Zufluss in übersättigte Bereiche ebenfalls regulieren, indem sie Grünzeiten verkürzen oder aussetzen, hinfällig werden. Um diese Frage zu klären, widmet sich die vorliegende Masterarbeit dem Vergleich der beiden zuflussregulierenden Steuerungskonzepte. Ziel ist jedoch nicht, zu beweisen, dass eine Maßnahme schlechter ist als die andere, sondern vielmehr einen Beitrag zu einer optimalen Kombination der Vorzüge beider Herangehensweisen zu leisten und somit die auf beiden Seiten vorhandenen Defizite zu beseitigen. Dafür werden zunächst beide Konzepte auf ihre Effizienz hin überprüft und im Anschluss analysiert, inwiefern die Symbiose beider LSA-Steuerungen in einem Netzwerk zusätzliche Effekte gegen die Gridlockentstehung bewirkt. Außerdem werden verschiedene Vorschläge zur Entwicklung einer effizienteren Steuerlogik für Pförtneranlagen eingebracht, um diese Kombination noch vorteilhafter zu gestalten.

[pt] Para que ocorra o fluxo de fluidos em um sistema de produção é necessário que a energia dos fluidos no reservatório seja capaz de superar as perdas de carga nos diversos componentes do sistema. Os fluidos têm que escoar do reservatório aos separadores na superfície, passando pelas tubulações de produção dos poços, pelos equipamentos de cabeça de poço e pelas linhas de surgência. O projeto de um sistema de produção não deve ser executado considerando independentemente o desempenho do reservatório e o cálculo do fluxo nas tubulações de produção e nas linhas e equipamentos de superfície. A avaliação do desempenho de um sistema de produção de gás requer a aplicação de um método de análise total que considere simultaneamente o escoamento nos diversos segmentos do sistema. A análise total de um sistema de produção, pode ser efetuada por um método gráfico - analítico a ser empregado no desenho de completação de poços de gás e petróleo com ou sem levantamento artificial. Em termos de conceito de análise total, um sistema de produção é constituído basicamente pelos elementos: reservatório, tubo de produção vertical, linhas de fluxo horizontal e separador, incluindo válvulas de fundo de poço e choke superficiais, onde ocorrem uma certa perda de pressão relacionada com a vazão. O comportamento de fluxo de cada elemento do sistema total de produção é representado por uma equação que relaciona a pressão num nó selecionado e a vazão de produção. O cálculo seqüencial das pressões nos diferentes nós dos diversos elementos do sistema permite que a vazão de produção do poço seja determinada. Para calcular a relação da vazão com as mudanças de pressão que ocorrem durante o transporte do fluido à superfície e conseqüente variação das propriedades físicas do fluido, efetuou-se uma revisão dos conceitos de engenharia de reservatório, correlações de fluxo em tubulações verticais, horizontais e restrições. Finalmente, realizou-se uma análise de sensibilidade da metodologia ao emprego das diferentes relações de performance de fluxo e dos métodos de cálculo de fluxo em poços e linhas. / [en] For the flow of fluids to occur in a production system, the fluids energy in the reservoir must be capable of overcoming load losses along various system components. Fluids must flow from the reservoir to the surface separators through the wells tubing, wellhead equipment and flowing lines. The production system design must not be executed by considering separately the performance of the reservoir and the flow calculation across the tubing, surface equipment and lines. The evaluation of a gas production system performance requires applying a total analysis method that considers the drainage at various system segments simultaneously. The total analysis of a production system can be effected through a graphical- analytical method to be used for the completion design of oil and gas wells with or without artificial lift. In terms of total analysis concept, a production system is basically comprised of the following components: reservoir, vertical tubing, horizontal flow lines and separator, including bottom-hole valves and surface choke, where some pressure loss occurs in relation to the flow rate. The flow behavior of each component in a total production system is represented by an equation that relates the pressure at one selected node and the production flow rate. The sequential pressure calculation at the different nodes of various system components allows determining the well s production flow rate. In order to calculate the relationship between the flow rate and the pressure changes that occur during fluid transportation to the surface, with the resulting variation of the fluid s engineering, flow correlations in vertical and horizontal tubing, and restrictions. Finally, we proceeded to analyze the methodology s sensitivity to the use of different flow performance relations and flow calculation methods in wells and lines.

This thesis deals with Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of impinging air jets. The impinging jet configuration features heated circular jets impinging onto a flat plate. The problem addressed here is of generic nature, with applications in many engineering devices, such as cooling of components in gas turbines, in cars and electronic devices. The flow is inherently unsteady and contains relatively slowly varying coherent structures. Therefore, LES is the method of choice when the Reynolds number is large enough to exclude Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS). The present LES model is a basic model without explicit Sub-Grid-Scale (SGS) modeling and without explicit filtering. Instead, the numerical scheme is used to account for the necessary amount of dissipation. By using the computational grid as a filter the cutoff wavenumber depends explicitly on the grid spacing. The underlying computational grid is staggered and constructed in a Cartesian coordinate system. Heat transfer is modeled by the transport equation for a passive scalar. This is possible due to the negligible influence of buoyancy which implies constant density throughout the flow field. The present method provides accurate results for simple geometries in an efficient manner. A great variety of inlet conditions have been considered in order to elucidate how the dynamics of the flow and heat transfer are affected. The considered studies include top-hat and mollified mean velocity profiles subjected to random and sinusoidal perturbations and top-hat profiles superimposed with solid body rotation. It has been found that the shape of the mean inlet velocity profile has a decisive influence on the development of the flow and scalar fields, whereas the characteristics of the imposed artificial disturbances (under consideration) have somewhat weaker effect. In order to obtain results unequivocally comparable to experimental data on turbulent impinging jets both space and time correlations of the inflow data must be considered, so also the spectral content. This is particularly important if the region of interest is close to the velocity inlet, i.e. for small nozzle-to-plate spacings. Within this work mainly small nozzle-toplate spacings are considered (within the range of 0.25 and 4 nozzle diameters), which emphasizes the importance of the inflow conditions. Thus, additional to the basic methods also turbulent inflow conditions, acquired from a precursor pipe simulation, have been examined. Both for swirling and non-swirling flows. This method emulates fully developed turbulent pipe flow conditions and is the best in the sense of being well defined, but it demands a great deal of computing power and is also rather inflexibility. In case of the basic randomly perturbed methods the top-hat approach has been found to produce results in closest agreement with those originating from turbulent inlet conditions. In the present simulations the growth of individual instability modes is clearly detected. The character of the instability is strongly influenced by the imposed boundary conditions. Due to the lack of correlation random superimposed fluctuations have only a weak influence on the developing flow field. The shape of the mean profile, on the other hand, influences both the growth rate and the frequency of the dominant modes. The top-hat profile yields a higher natural frequency than the mollified. Furthermore, for the top-hat profile coalescence of pairs of vortices takes place within the shear-layer of the axial jet, whereas for the mollified profile (for the considered degree of mollification) it takes place within the wall jet. This indicates that the transition process is delayed for smoother profiles. The amount of wall heat transfer is directly influenced by the character of the convective vortical structures. For the mollified cases wall heat transfer originates predominantly from the dynamics of discrete coherent structures. The influence from eddy structures is low and hence Reynolds analogy is applicable, at least in regions of attached flow. The top-hat and the turbulent inflow conditions yield a higher rate of incoherent small scale structures. This strongly affects the character of wall heat transfer. Also the applied level of swirl at the velocity inlet has significant influence on the rate of heat transfer. The turbulence level increases with swirl, which is positive for heat transfer, and so also the spreading of the jet. The latter effect has a negative influence on wall heat transfer, particularly in the center most regions. This however depends also on the details of the inflow data. / QC 20100831

A new rotor dynamic wake distortion model, which can be used to account for the rotor transient wake distortion effect on inflow across the rotor disk during helicopter maneuvering and transitional flight in both hover and forward flight conditions, is developed. The dynamic growths of the induced inflow perturbation across the rotor disk during different transient maneuvers, such as a step pitch or roll rate, a step climb rate and a step change of advance ratio are investigated by using a dynamic vortex tube analysis. Based on the vortex tube results, a rotor dynamic wake distortion model, which is expressed in terms of a set of ordinary differential equations, with rotor longitudinal and lateral wake curvatures, wake skew and wake spacing as states, is developed. Also, both the Pitt-Peters dynamic inflow model and the Peters-He finite state inflow model for axial or forward flight are augmented to account for rotor dynamic wake distortion effect during helicopter maneuvering flight. To model the aerodynamic interaction among main rotor, tail rotor and empennage caused by rotor wake curvature effect during helicopter maneuvering flight, a reduced order model based on a vortex tube analysis is developed. Both the augmented Pitt-Peters dynamic inflow model and the augmented Peters-He finite state inflow model, combined with the developed dynamic wake distortion model, together with the interaction model are implemented in a generic helicopter simulation program of UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter and the simulated vehicle control responses in both time domain and frequency domain are compared with flight test data of a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter in both hover and low speed forward flight conditions.

With the majority of Earth’s population living in coastal areas, estuarine ecosystems have been particularly affected by anthropogenic disturbances. My dissertation research focused on three interrelated types of human disturbance that affect estuaries: Anthropogenic alteration of freshwater inflow, the introduction of invasive species, and habitat alteration. Using the LoxahatcheeRiver(Jupiter, FL) as a model system, my goal was to understand how these disturbances affect estuarine organisms, particularly fishes. One of the most ecologically harmful disturbances affecting estuaries is anthropogenic alteration of freshwater inflow (and resulting changes in salinity patterns). To identify effects of freshwater inflow on the behavior of an ecologically and economically important fish (common snook Centropomus undecimalis), I conducted a 19-month acoustic telemetry study. Common snook were more abundant and made more frequent upstream migrations during the wet season, but freshwater inflow did not appear to be the proximate cause for these behaviors. Increased estuarine salinity resulting from anthropogenic flow alteration may have facilitated the second type of disturbance that I address in this dissertation; the invasion of non-native Indo-Pacific lionfish into estuarine habitats. During the course of my dissertation research, I documented the first ever estuarine invasion by non-native lionfish. Using mark-recapture, I identified high site fidelity in lionfish, a trait that may aid future control efforts. The extremely low minimum salinity tolerance that I identified in lionfish appears to have allowed the species to colonize far upriver in estuaries with anthropogenically modified salinity patterns. Anthropogenic salinity alteration has also led to a severe degradation of oyster reef habitats in theLoxahatcheeRiver. As a foundation species, oysters provide food, shelter, and nursery habitat for a wide variety of estuarine organisms, including many ecologically and economically important fishes. Increasingly, degraded oyster reef habitats have been the focus of restoration efforts. I identified a relatively rapid (< 2 years) convergence between restored and natural oyster reef communities, and documented the importance of vertical relief in restoration success. My dissertation research is critical for the management and conservation of coastal rivers inFlorida, while more broadly informing restoration and management decisions in many other estuarine and coastal ecosystems.

Orientador: Secundino Soares Filho, Rosangela Ballini / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-05T12:09:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marinho_ManoelHenriquedaNobrega_D.pdf: 2444321 bytes, checksum: f87889cc170b6491d56fb7b2058b7973 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / Resumo: Modelos de redes neurais artificiais treinados com algoritmos de retropropagação do erro foram desenvolvidos para a previsão de vazões médias mensais vários passos à frente. Essas previsões foram utilizadas em políticas de controle em malha aberta para o planejamento da operação energética de sistemas hidrotérmicos de potência. O posto hidrológico da usina hidrelétrica de Furnas foi selecionado para estudo de caso. Dois métodos foram implementados e testados para a previsão de vazões médias mensais vários passos à frente. O primeiro, denominado Método Direto, utiliza uma rede neural específica para prever cada passo à frente. O segundo, denominado Método Agregado, utiliza inicialmente uma rede neural para prever a soma das vazões vários passos à frente, desagregando posteriormente em valores mensais proporcionalmente aos valores médios do histórico de vazões. Os resultados indicaram que embora o Método Agregado tenha obtido pior desempenho que o Método Direto na comparação dos erros de previsão a cada passo, essa abordagem apresentou melhor desempenho quando comparados os erros de previsão da soma das vazões vários passos à frente. Os dois métodos foram então avaliados através da simulação da operação energética utilizando a política de controle em malha aberta. O resultado indicou um desempenho significativamente melhor para o Método Agregado, proporcionando uma maior geração hidrelétrica e um menor custo operacional / Abstract: Not informed / Doutorado / Energia Eletrica / Doutor em Engenharia Elétrica

Orientador: Ieda Geriberto Hidalgo / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-25T19:15:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Signoriello_GiuseppeAlessandro_M.pdf: 31629174 bytes, checksum: 1674c1adcccf93d9b3ee9711be3f709e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Este trabalho apresenta a comparação de dois modelos matemáticos desenvolvidos para prever vazões afluentes à usinas hidrelétricas. O objetivo é abordar os aspectos que determinam a qualidade do insumo fundamental para a programação da operação do sistema hidrotérmico brasileiro: a previsão de vazões. A ferramenta de suporte à avaliação dos modelos matemáticos é o SISPREV, gerenciador/executor de estudos de previsão de vazões desenvolvido na UNICAMP. Esta ferramenta permite ao usuário prever vazões diárias e mensais com base em modelos de Regressão Linear (RL) e Sistema de Inferência Neuro-Fuzzy (SINF). Avaliou-se a qualidade das previsões diárias e mensais dos modelos RL e SINF através da metodologia de mineração de dados Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM). A CRISP-DM é baseada em um modelo hierárquico de processos comumente usados na descoberta de conhecimento. Os resultados mostram que o modelo RL apresenta um desempenho melhor para previsões diárias e o modelo SINF para as previsões mensais. Além disso, o modelo RL tem a tendência a ter bom desempenho de previsão nas situações típicas de chuva-vazão, enquanto os melhores índices de desempenho do modelo SINF caem nas condições atípicas, em particular com a contemporaneidade de altas vazões e baixas precipitações / Abstract: This work presents a comparison between two different mathematical models developed to predict inflows to hydropower plants. The purpose is to explore the aspects that determine the quality of an important input variable for operation planning of the Brazilian hydrothermal system: the inflows forecasting. The tool that supports the evaluation of the mathematical models is called SISPREV. It is a manager/runner of inflows forecasting studies developed at UNICAMP. This tool allows the user to predict daily and monthly inflows based on Linear Regression (RL) models and Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (SINF). In this thesis, was evaluated the quality of daily and monthly forecasts of RL and SINF models using the methodology Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining. CRISP-DM is used in the discovery of knowledge and based on a hierarchical process model. The results show that the RL model performs better for daily predictions and the SINF model for monthly predictions. Furthermore, the RL model tends to have better performance in typical situations of rainfall-inflow, while the best performance indices of the SINF model fall in atypical conditions, in particular with the simultaneous high inflow rates and low precipitation / Mestrado / Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos / Mestre em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos

Subject of this diploma thesis is to provide an overview of economic theories on why companies tend to invest at foreign markets directly and thus to determine the foreign direct investment (FDI) itself. Covered areas include a foreign direct investment typology, motivation to invest, localisation factors, attractiveness and measurement of a host country business environment. Various types of FDI, methodology and forms of FDI statistical coverage analysis is included in the thesis. Three frameworks influencing all the segments of the FDI are covered in depth. These include the foreign policy factors, domestic policy factors and a process of economic transformation in the Czech Republic. Corresponding analytics map a development between a FDI and selected macroeconomic indicators of the Czech Republic. The analysis shows that foreign investment has a certain influence over selected macroeconomic indicators, however it is not always possible to quantify it as well as to predict its trend. On the other side it is often difficult to prove an influence of macroeconomic development on intensity of the FDI inflow to the Czech Republic. Keywords: foreign investment, determinants of the foreign direct investment inflow, foreign direct investment macroeconomic indicators

Since the deregulation of the Nordic electricity market in 1996, electricity has become one of the most traded commodities in the Nordic region. The electricity price is characterized by large fluctuations as the supply and demand of electricity are seasonally dependent. The main interest of the hydro power producers is to assure that they can sell their hydro power at an attractive rate over time. This means that there is a demand for hedging against these fluctuations which in turn creates trading opportunities for third party actors that offer solutions between consumers and producers. Telge Krafthandel is one of these actors interested in predicting the future supply of hydro power, and consequently the resulting price of electricity. Several existing models employ the assumption of perfect foresight regarding the weather in the future. In this thesis, the authors develop new models for hydro power optimization that take hydrological uncertainty into account by implementing a variation of multi-stage optimization in order to maximize the income of the hydro power producers. The optimization is performed with respect to prices of financial derivatives on electricity. This gives insights into the expected supply of hydro power in the future which in turn can be used as an indicator of the price of electricity. The thesis also discusses, among other things, different methods for modeling stochastic inflow to the reservoirs and scenario construction. This practice will result in different methods that are suitable for various key players in the industry. / Sedan avregleringen av den Nordiska elmarknaden år 1996 har el blivit en av de mest handlade råvarorna i Norden. Elpriset karaktäriseras av stora svängningar eftersom utbudet och efterfrågan på el är säsongsberoende. Huvudintresset för vattenkraftsproducenter är att säkerställa att de kan sälja sin vattenkraft till ett attraktivt pris över tid. Detta innebär att det finns en efterfrågan för skydd mot dessa variationer, vilket i sin tur skapar affärsmöjligheter för tredjepartsaktörer som erbjuder lösningar mellan konsumenter och producenter. Telge Krafthandel är en av dessa aktörer och är därmed intresserad av att förutsäga det framtida utbudet på vattenkraft, och det resulterande elpriset. Flera befintliga modeller använder antagandet om perfekt förutseende när det gäller vädret i framtiden. I denna rapport utvecklar författarna nya modeller för vattenkraftsoptimering, som tar hänsyn till hydrologisk osäkerhet genom att implementera en variant av flerstegsoptimering för att maximera intäkterna för vattenkraftsproducenter. Optimeringen utförs med hänsyn till priserna på elderivat. Detta ger insikter i den förväntade tillgången på vattenkraft i framtiden, vilket i sin tur kan användas som en indikator på elpriset. I rapporten diskuteras också, bland annat, olika metoder för att modellera stokastiskt inflöde till vattenmagasinen och scenariokonstruktion. Detta kommer att leda till flera metoder som är lämpliga för olika aktörer i branschen.