Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The lack of easy access to consistent, timely and reliable information is perceived to be one of the major barriers to investment on the African continent and the aim of this study is to provide the Africa Centre for Investment Analysis with a systems analysis, to enable it to populate their African Capital Markets Database with sufficient data to address this issue. The study aims to provide: • Program expertise to facilitate the automation of share price data capturing into a central database at the Centre • Systems analysis expertise to develop the necessary systems to capture and report the published company financial results of all listed companies in the African stock markets (excluding South Africa's JSE) • An evaluation of the existing products that ACIA offers, and an analysis of the effectiveness of the existing product mix • Recommendations on possible future changes and additions to the product portfolio to increase ACIA's profile in the market place • An analysis of the marketing environment that ACIA operates in, with recommendations about different marketing strategies that should be considered During this study, conversion programs has been written in the Visual Basic programming language to extract and update several years worth of share price data for the following countries. • Namibia • Swaziland • Zimbabwe • Botswana • Zambia • Nigeria • Malawi • Mauritius Kenya • Ghana • Tunisia • Egypt A total of 90000+ data points were created via this conversion process. It is envisaged that the data that has been loaded into the African Capital Markets Database will become one of the best research resources on African investment opportunities, and that the results of this study will have a wide impact on the continent in terms of attracting foreign capital investments, when researchers globally start to use this information. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die gebrek aan genoegsame, akkurate en vinning bekombare inligting word gesien as een van die hoof redes waarom daar 'n gebrek aan buitelandse investering in Afrika plaasvind. Die doel van hierdie studie is om 'n ontleding te maak van die stelsel behoeftes wat bestaan by die Afrika Sentrum vir Beleggings Ontleding, en om tergelykertyd ook die sentrum se Afrika Kapitaalmark Databasis met data te populeer, sodat die gebrek aan deursigtige en akurate inligtings probleem geadreseer kan word. Die studie beoog om die volgende kennis daar te stel: • Verskaffing van rekenaar programmerings kennis om die opdatering van aandeel prys data in die databasis te outomatiseer. • Om stelselontledings kennis te verskaf om die databasis verder uit te brei sodat die gepubliseerde state van genoteerded Afrika maatskappye ook in die stelsel gestoor kan word. (Suid Afrikaanse maatskappye word uitgesluit uit die databasis, omdat daar alreeds voldoende inligting oor die Johannesburgse Aandele beurs beskikbaar is) • Die evaluering van die bestaande produkte en dienste wat deur ACIA verskaf word, tesame met 'n analise om te bepaal of die bestaande reeks produkte en dienste aan die mark behoeftes van alle moontlike geinteresseerde partye voldoen. • Aanbevelings aangaande moontlike toekomstige veranderings en toevoegings tot die bestaande produkte en dienste om ACIA se dienste meer bekend te maak in die internasionale kapitaal markte. • 'n Ontleding van die marksegment waarin ACIA kompeteer, asook aanbevelings rondom moontlike bemarkings strategieë wat oorweeg behoort te word. Gedurende hierdie studie is verskeie data omskeppings programme geskryf om 'n groot hoeveelheid data punte in die databasis te laai. Die Visual Basic programmerings taal is vir hierdie doeleindes gebruik. Aandeel prys data van die volgende lande word databasis oorgeplaas. • Namibië • Swaziland • Zimbabwe • Botswana • Zambië • Nigerië • Malawi • Mauritius • Kenya • Ghana • Tunisië • Egipte Meer as 90 000 data punte is deur middel van hierdie proses in die Oracle databasis opgedateer. Die verwagting is dat die Afrika Kapitaalmark Databasis een van die toonaangewendste bronne van Afrika markaanwysers sal word. Hierdie studie het 'n geweldige groot bydrae gelewer om die databasis van 'n moontlikheid na 'n werklikheid te omskep. Die geloof, hoop en vertroue bestaan dat hierdie studie 'n wesentlike bydrae sal maak om meer direkte buitelandse belegging na Afrika aan te trek, sodra finansieële navorsers die data uit hierdie nuwe bron begin ontgin.

Thesis (PhD (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation is made up of stand-alone essays on the determinants of the investment climate in emerging market economies. Chapter One presents the purpose of this study, the significance of the research to policy makers, researchers and investors and the limitations of the research. Chapter Two investigates empirically whether business regulations, as measured by the „Doing Business‟ indicators, have an impact on investment in 29 emerging market economies in Africa, Asia, Latin America and emerging Europe. The results show that secure property rights and the level of business entry regulation influence the investment climate in these economies. In addition, efficiency of the judicial system, investor protection and the flexibility of employment regulation were found to be insignificant determinants of investment. Chapter Three explores the effect of business regulation on stock market liquidity, using data from a selection of 15 stock markets in Africa. The results from the panel data analysis show that the degree of business regulation does not influence stock liquidity. However, the results confirm that greater protection of minority share-holders' rights, as well as lender and better collateral and bankruptcy laws enhance stock market liquidity. There was anecdotal evidence to suggest that improved judicial efficiency enhances stock market liquidity. The legal origin was found to be significant in explaining the differences in the legal systems of these countries. Countries that have adopted French legal traditions were found to have less active stock markets and less investor and property rights protection compared to countries that have adopted English legal traditions. Chapter Four investigates the effect of the level of business regulation, infrastructure and political environment on investment in 29 African countries. The results provide evidence to show that lower levels of business regulation, less corruption and a stable political environment are important in enhancing investment. The final essay examines the effect of business regulation and geography on investment in a sample of 37 countries in Africa. The results show that more secure property rights and fewer import and export regulations have a significantly positive effect on private investment. In addition, being landlocked and distant from the sea has a negative effect on investment. Furthermore, the findings revealed that property rights protection in landlocked economies is not significantly different from that in coastal economies. In all the studies, the legal origin was found to be significant in explaining cross-country differences in the legal systems of the selected countries. These findings have important implications for policy makers, multi-lateral organisations and investors. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie proefskrif bestaan uit alleenstaande studies oor die beslissende faktore van die beleggingsklimaat in opkomende markekonomieë. In hoofstuk een word die doel van die studie; die belang van die navorsing vir beleidmakers, navorsers en beleggers; en die beperkings van die navorsing aangebied. Hoofstuk twee bevat ‟n empiriese ondersoek om te bepaal of sakeregulasies, soos deur die “Doing Business”-aanwysers gemeet, ‟n uitwerking op belegging in 29 ontluikende markekonomieë in Afrika, Asië, Latyns-Amerika en ontluikende Europa het. Die resultate toon dat veilige eiendomsregte en die vlak van regulasie vir toetrede tot besigheid die beleggingsklimaat in hierdie ekonomieë beïnvloed. Hierbenewens is die doeltreffendheid van die regstelsel, die beskerming van beleggers en die buigsaamheid van indiensnemingsregulasies gevind onbelangrike beslissende faktore vir belegging te wees. In hoofstuk drie word verslag gelewer oor die uitwerking van sakeregulasies op die likiditeit van effektemarkte op grond van data van ‟n keur van 15 effektemarkte in Afrika. Die resultate van die paneeldata-analise toon dat die graad van sakeregulasie nie die likiditeit van effekte beïnvloed nie. Die resultate het egter bevestig dat meer beskerming van die regte van minderheidsaandeelhouers asook verbeterde wetgewing ten opsigte van kredietverskaffing, aanvullende sekuriteit en insolvensie die likiditeit van effektemarkte verhoog. Anekdotiese bewyse is gevind wat aan die hand doen dat verbeterde regsdoeltreffendheid ook die likiditeit van effektemarkte verhoog. Die regsoorsprong is as beduidend gevind ter verklaring van die verskille in die regstelsels van hierdie lande. Lande wat Franse regstradisies aanvaar het, is gevind minder aktiewe effektemarkte en minder beskerming van beleggers en eiendomsregte te hê, vergeleke met lande wat Engelse regstradisies aanvaar het. In hoofstuk vier word die uitwerking van die vlak van sakeregulasie, infrastruktuur en die politieke omgewing op belegging in 29 Afrika-lande bespreek. Die resultate toon bewyse dat laer vlakke van sakeregulasie, minder korrupsie en ‟n stabiele politieke omgewing belangrike faktore is om belegging te bevorder. Die laaste studie ondersoek die uitwerking van sakeregulasies en geografie op belegging in ‟n monster van 37 Afrika-lande. Die resultate toon dat veiliger eiendomsregte en minder invoer- en uitvoerregulasies ‟n beduidende positiewe uitwerking op privaat belegging het. Hierbenewens is daar ‟n negatiewe uitwerking op belegging in lande wat deur land omring is en ver van die see af is. Die bevindings het ook aan die lig gebring dat die beskerming van eiendomsregte in ekonomieë wat deur land omring is, nie aanmerklik verskil van dié in kusekonomieë nie. In al die studies is regsoorsprong as beduidend gevind in die verklaring van verskille in die regstelsels van die gekose lande. Hierdie bevindings het belangrike implikasies vir beleidmakers, multilaterale organisasies en beleggers.

Thesis (MBA) -- Stellenbosch University, 2010. / As major corporate entities are investing into Sub-Saharan Africa and other African countries at a fast pace, percentages like the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and the impairment discount rate, are becoming important measurements of assessing current investments for impairment and/or proposals of future capital investments. One of the important constituents of these percentages is the country/equity risk premium. The country risk premium can be defined as the price for taking risk for investing in that specific country. A widely used method to determine the country risk premium is to multiply the country bond default spread with an equity to bond market risk adjustment. Country bond default spreads are the spreads that investors charge for buying bonds issued by the country. These ratings measure default risk, rather than equity risk, but they are affected by many factors that drive equity risk, like the stability of a country’s currency, the budget and trade balances and the political stability. Analysis that uses spreads as a measure of country risk, usually adds them to both the cost of equity and debt of entities that trade in that country. There are several ways in determining the bond default spreads, but it is most often done in a random and unsystematic manner. Two of the major obstacles in determining these spreads for countries, especially countries of sub-Saharan Africa, are when countries do not issue bonds in another currency such as Euro or US dollar and/or do not have a sovereign credit rating. What could also be a measure of country risk, are the two major country risk polls conducted globally: 1) Euromoney Country Risk Poll; and 2) PRS (Political Risk Group) Composite Risk Ratings. Most of sub-Saharan African countries form part of these risk polls. The usefulness of the PRS scores as a measure of country risk has been previously examined to find that they are correlated with the cost of capital of emerging markets. The aim of the research is to overcome the obstacles in determining default spreads for countries such as sub-Saharan Africa where bond markets are inactive and/or sovereign credit ratings are not assigned, by deriving a predictive model. The predictive model is derived by analysing the relationship between the available estimated default spreads that are assigned to a specific country, depending on their Moody’s sovereign local currency rating and the countries’ respective country risk scores conducted by Euromoney and PRS respectively. The stability of the relationship is also analysed by comparing the prediction of the sub-Saharan’s Africa default spreads based on the 2010 predictive model to the analyses conducted on 2008 data sets. Other similar models have been developed, but this model is focused on the total risk score of a country and not only on the credit risk or related constituents. One of the definitions of country risk is that it relates to the likelihood that changes in the business environment will occur that reduce the profitability of doing business in a country, which can negatively affect operating profits as well as the value of assets. One can conclude that this derived model is a good reflection of prevailing political and economic stability of the countries and a useful measure of country risk that can be used in assessing the profitability of current investments in a specific country and for proposals of future capital investments. Key words: Country bond default spreads, Sovereign credit ratings, Euromoney risk scores, PRS composite ratings, sub-Saharan African countries.

Staple food prices rose sharply in 2007/2008, dropped slightly after July 2008, and rose again in 2010/2011. Since 2008, food prices have remained high, indicating a structural upward adjustment in food prices amidst excessive price volatility. The 2008 food price increases led to considerable media coverage and alarm among governments who implemented a variety of responses to protect their populations from food insecurity. At the start of the high food price crisis in May 2008, the African Union and New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AU/NEPAD) invited 16 African countries to a workshop in South Africa. The aim of the workshop was to assist selected African countries identify and formulate appropriate plans to mitigate food insecurity and manage rising food prices. This study set out to investigate whether the strategies implemented by national governments at the start of the crisis mitigated high food prices through improved risk management strategies in five African countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda and Uganda) and evaluated these strategies to see if they were included in the national agriculture and food security investment plans. To achieve this, the study set out to explore four sub-problems, namely: What was the impact of high food prices on populations in the five selected countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda and Uganda)? How did the five countries respond to the 2008 food price crisis with regard to providing for immediate needs and protecting vulnerable groups from food insecurity? How many early actions were included in country compacts and agriculture and food investment programmes? Do country investment plans include household risk management programmes that will protect vulnerable groups against high food prices in future? The involvement of the researcher in the AU/NEPAD workshop and his subsequent engagement with national government representatives provided a unique opportunity to analyse the iterative process of Country Investment Plan (CIP) development. This innovative and largely qualitative study integrated comparative, content and thematic analysis approaches, using the four elements of the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Programme’s (CAADP) Framework for African Food Security (FAFS) to analyse the national plans. The study drew on available data from a wide variety of national, regional and international documents. Additional data were collected through a survey questionnaire completed by CAADP country focal persons. Data sourced from documents included Food Price Indices, country policy responses to high food prices, poverty and malnutrition indicators and the types of risk management strategies designed under CAADP. The study found that food prices increased across all five countries between 2007 and 2008, although the effects of the increases varied, being influenced by, among other factors, the proportion of national stocks purchased on the international market (i.e. net importers of staple crops), the availability of substitute staples on the domestic market and the magnitude of the difference between international and domestic market prices. The 2008 food price increases forced populations to spend a higher proportion of their income on food and eroded their purchasing power, impacting on the food security of these populations. Poor people adopted eroding consumption strategies that increased food insecurity. The impact of the high food prices on populations was determined by whether they were net food buyers or producers, the mix of staple commodities in their food basket and the proportion of income spent on food. As poor net food importing countries, imported staple foods became too costly, except in Uganda - a net exporter of food staples consumed in the surrounding countries. High food prices also provoked social unrest in Ethiopia and exacerbated political and economic instability in Kenya. Countries’ early responses to the food price crisis were varied and included responses that can be classified into three main categories, namely: Trade-oriented responses protected domestic stocks, reduced tariffs, restricted exports to reduce prices for consumers or increased domestic supply Consumer-oriented responses provided direct support to consumers and vulnerable groups in the form of, among others, food subsidies, social safety nets, tax reductions and price controls Producer-oriented responses provided incentives for farmers to increase production - using measures such as input subsidies and producer price support. Most responses were aimed at managing prices, suggesting that governments tried to protect citizens from price increases and buffer consumption reduction. Safety net programmes mitigated risks through the provision of food for immediate consumption. As a result, malnutrition levels unexpectedly decreased or remained static in these five countries, despite expectations and media claims that the number of hungry people would increase significantly. The early actions from the food price workshop plans were generally systematically translated into long-term programmes in the Compacts and Country Investment Plans. In Ethiopia, seven of eight early action plans were translated into the CIP, Kenya included three of eight, Malawi’s CIP included four of ten, and Rwanda included six of its ten early actions in their CIP programme, while Uganda included only six of thirteen early actions in their CIP. The study found that CIPs included risk management strategies, but these focused predominantly on improving early warning systems and crisis prevention. The risk management options largely included options for improving crisis prevention, followed by improving emergency responses and strengthening risk management policies and institutions. Only Kenya’s CIP included more risk management options for improving emergency responses – four of six risk management programmes. Despite expectations that programmes developed under CAADP FAFS would include all FAFS elements, CIPs lacked programmes to improve dietary quality. Only Rwanda’s CIP included nutrition programmes - three of six programmes in their CIP. The study concluded that while the proposed risk management strategies could mitigate risks associated with high food prices and offer some buffer for populations from food insecurity, the programmes are not comprehensive. The plans were generally weak regarding improving dietary quality through diversification of food consumption and production. Although the CIPs included risk management strategies, these strategies would not address risks in a comprehensive manner. More effective and coherent actions are still required to help the most food insecure populations cope with increasing high food prices and future price shocks; help developing country farmers respond to the opportunities offered by the rising demand for their products; and bring more stability in prices. The early food price response workshop seems to have influenced the development of programmes in the CAADP compact and CIPs, despite the fact that the workshop did not intend to assist countries with the development of comprehensive national investment plans. The large funding gaps in the CIPs constrain implementation of essential mitigation and development strategies and could leave countries vulnerable to the negative impacts of higher prices for consumers and threaten future household food security. The study recommends that countries invest in agriculture-led growth to boost domestic production and strengthen institutional capacities regarding national food stock reserves to reduce their dependency on imports and ensure food insecurity. National monitoring and evaluation systems need to be strengthened to evaluate and monitor the implementation of CIPs and to warn about future high food prices. Empirical estimation of the impact of price increases on households across all CAADP countries is needed to understand and monitor the impact of price changes and interventions. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2012.

MCOM / Department of Economics / The study aimed to empirically examine the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in the Southern African Development Community countries for the period 1980-2015. The relation between foreign direct investment and economic growth has been a subject of extensive discussion in the economic literature. The debate revolves around the growth implications of foreign direct investment. The extraordinary increase in global FDI flows in the last three decades triggered an interest to investigate the growth implications of such huge amounts of cross-border capital movements. Owing to this surge in foreign direct investment flows and the effort countries are putting forth to attract it, it would seem straightforward to argue that foreign direct investment would convey net positive effects on economic growth of a host country. From a theoretical standpoint foreign direct investment has been shown to boost economic growth through technology transfer and diffusion. In light of the expected benefits of foreign direct investment, many empirical studies have been conducted on this subject matter. While the explosion of foreign direct investment flows is distinctive, the evidence accumulated on the growth effects remains mixed. Using fixed effect panel data analysis, on the overall, the findings of the study show a negative effect of FDI on economic growth in the SADC countries for the period 1980 to 2015. The findings are not in tandem with theoretical predictions from growth theorists and some empirical studies carried out on the same topic. The findings of the study imply that FDI does not seem to have an independent effect on economic growth for the panel of countries in the SADC region. This maybe because FDI flows to Africa and into the SADC countries, in particular, are channelled mainly to the extractive sector with little to no linkages with the other sectors of the host country economy. The findings of the study also show that the growth-enhancing potential of FDI is higher in middle-income countries than low-income countries in the SADC region.