Thesis (M.S. in Defense Analysis)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2008. / Thesis Advisor(s): Freeman, Michael E. "December 2008." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 29, 2009. Includes bibliographical references (p. 115-124). Also available in print.

Zugl.: Münster (Westfalen), Univ., Diss., 2009

International terrorism is a relevant and acute issue to deal with for most states across the globe. The horrors and fear of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 in New York and Washington left governments with new priorities and challenges to cooperate and coordinate efforts to combat terrorism. Governments in Southeast Asia have been faced with the threat of terrorism for several decades, although it has increased during the last decade. This case study sets out to trace and analyze terrorism in Southeast Asia from a neo-realist perspective. The first research question deals with the fact that the region is being referred to as the “second front” on the war on terror, or as a “terrorist haven”. Further, by using a neo-realist framework, an analysis of the situation and the actions of governments in the region will be provided. Finally, according to neo-realist theory, regional cooperation is only peripheral to the actual struggles of power and balancing that states are involved in. Yet the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) is arguably an actor in combating terrorism in the region. Therefore, one of the objectives is to analyze these initiatives and to provide reflections for further action.

The rise of the 21st Century Islamic extremist movement, which was mobilised by the al-Qaeda attacks of and responses to September 11, 2001, heralds a new period in the history of terrorism. The increased frequency and intensity of this type of terrorism affects every nation in the world, not least Australia. Rising to meet the challenges posed by terrorism is the field of terrorism studies, the field which aims at understanding, explaining, and countering terrorism. Despite the importance of the field, it has been beleaguered with criticisms since its inception as a response to the rise of international terrorism. These criticisms specifically aim at the field's lack of objectivity, abstraction, levels of research, and levels of analysis. These criticisms were the impetus behind the adoption of the methodology of this thesis, which offers the distinct ability to understand, explain, and forecast the way in which terrorists interact within covert cells. Through social network analysis, this thesis examines four terrorist cells that have operated in or against Australia. These cells are from the groups Hrvatsko Revolucionarno Bratstvo (Croatian Revolutionary Brotherhood), Aum Shinrikyo (Supreme Truth), Lashkar-e-Taiba (Army of the Pure), and Jemaah Islamiyah (Islamic Community) and operated between 1963 and 2003. Essentially, this methodology attempts to discover, map, and analyse the interaction within the cells during the covert stage of their respective operations. Following this, the results are analysed through the traditional social network analysis frameworks to discover the internal dynamics of the cell and identify the critical nodes (leaders) within the cells. Destabilisation techniques are subsequently employed, targeting these critical nodes to establish the most effective disruption techniques from a counter-terrorism point of view. The major findings of this thesis are: (1) that cells with a focus on efficiency rather than covertness were more successful in completing their objectives (contrary to popular belief); and (2) betweenness centrality (control over the flow of communication) is a critical factor in identifying leaders within terrorist cells. The analysis also offered significant insight into how a Jemaah Islamiyah cell might operate effectively in Australia, as well as the importance of local contacts to terrorist operations and the significance of international counter-terrorism cooperation and coordination.