This study tests the Arbitrage Pricing Theory on the Johannesburg stock Exchange (JSE). Following the McElroy and Burmeister (1988) approach of pre-specifying a factor structure to be tested, a possible set of factors was selected on the basis of a priori theoretical and empirical evidence that they could affect share prices. All combinations of these factors were separately tested against mining and industrial shares listed on the JSE. Two sets of tests were performed, firstly, a multivariate nonlinear regression with cross-equation restrictions as a test of the APT model and secondly, a seemingly unrelated regression model. The APT test results for mining shares show that the model with gold price risk and residual market risk and the model with growth rate risk and residual market risk had the highest adjusted-R2 values. However these factors were not priced APT factors since they were not significantly different from zero. Two one-factor models yielded priced APT factors. These were the model including the gold price risk and another model with growth rate risk. Whilst these were both priced APT factors, the gold price risk model was better fitted. Four models were selected from the APT tests on industrial shares, on the basis of high adjusted-R2 values and factors which were significantly different from zero. They included the following risk factors: gold price risk and residual market risk; foreign exchange risk and residual market risk; inflation risk and residual market risk; default premium risk, gold price risk and residual market risk. The seemingly unrelated regression models had very similar adjusted-R2 values and indicated that the APT did not appear to explain the variation in share returns any better or worse than the seemingly unrelated regression model. The adjusted-R2 values for individual shares and the signs of the factor risk-premiums appear to be reasonable. The residual market risk factor was significantly different from zero for both the mining and industrial share samples, indicating that further work is required to identify the APT factors operating on the JSE. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of Natal, Durban, 1993.

M.B.A / The aim of this dissertation is to determine if there is any evidence that supports a "50" and a "200" day moving average share trading strategy to select, buy and sell shares quoted on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) Main Board, in order to determine if a "50" and a "200" day moving average share trading strategy will be appropriate to use, in order to make share trading profits in excess of the return generated by the JSE Overall Index. 1.4 0 .ACTIFVES o To evaluate fundamental analysis in respect of the quality of information (mainly at a company level) available to investors as the basis on which decisions to buy and sell shares are made. o To evaluate previous research undertaken in technical analysis with respect to the use and application of moving averages as a trading strategy in making share selections as well as buy and sell decisions. 14 Analyse historic price data on individual, randomly selected shares from the total population of all main board (1.6.5) listed shares quoted on the Johannesburg

M.Com. (Investment Management) / The study investigates the effects of final dividend announcements on the share prices of the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index for the period 2003-2012. A classical event study methodology was applied to test the data. Over the sample period the Abnormal Returns (AR), Average Abnormal Returns (AAR) and Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns (CAAR) were calculated. The final sample consisted of 13 companies that included 144 dividend announcement events. The results indicated that although dividend announcements seem to have a positive effect on share prices, the returns yielded from these effects are not significant and close to zero. Evidence relating to the dividend signalling hypothesis was also present in the South African market.

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2013. / This paper replicates Jegadeesh`s (1990) paper entitled “Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns”. Jegadeesh (1990) states that by using the observed systematic behaviour of stock returns it is possible to make “one-step-ahead return forecasts”. That is forecast the return one month in the future. The aim of this research is to assess the predictability of monthly returns on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) by analysing the monthly returns of stocks and portfolios of stocks from the JSE. This thesis will show that it is not possible to accurately or reliably forecast future returns for individual stocks or portfolios of stocks from the JSE. In addition the findings in this paper also indicate that stocks and portfolios of stocks from the JSE follow the random walk theory.

The efficient market hypothesis and behavioural finance have been the cause of much debate for decades, with one theory advocating market efficiency and the other opposing it. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) assumes that investors always act rationally and stock prices adjust rapidly to new information and should reflect all available information. In contrast, behavioural finance suggests that markets are not rational and investors make irrational decisions, which may lead them to over- or under-price stocks. Researchers for years have been empirically testing these assumptions in stock markets. However, there has been no consensus on which asset-pricing models perform better in capturing the effect of market anomalies and what impact these market anomalies have on the expected returns of different stock market’s sectors. The aim of the study was to test the effect of selected market anomalies on expected return in different sectors of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). More specifically, the study aimed to compare the performance of different asset-pricing models and their ability to account for market anomalies in different sectors of the JSE. Additionally, this study tested the applicability of the recent Fama and French five (FF5-factor) model, in estimating the expected return on the JSE. The study used a quantitative approach with secondary data over a period of 12 years starting from January 2002 to December 2014. The sample used in the study consists of monthly data obtained from McGregor BFA and the South African Reserve Bank. The study examined for the effects of size, value, January and momentum variables across six sectors of the JSE. This was accomplished by the use of various asset-pricing models such as the Capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the Fama and French three-factor model (FF3-factor), the Carhart four-factor model (C4F) and the recent five-factor model of Fama and French (FF5-factor). The study showed that whenever the asset-pricing models were not restricted, they tend to capture the market anomalies in four out of the six sectors examined. However, no market anomalies were found present in two of the six sectors analysed. In contrast, when the asset-pricing models are restricted, the asset-pricing models only seem to capture the effects of market anomalies in one of the six examined sectors. The findings in this study suggest that market anomalies are sensitive to model specifications, as restricting the models tends to capture the different market anomalies across the sectors of the JSE. The study also found that market anomalies differ across sectors and that some sectors are more efficient than others. The study also reveals that the FF5-factor model is able to account for expected returns on the JSE. In addition, the FF5-factor model tends to perform better when the model is restricted. It is also evident from the findings presented in this study, that the value anomaly loses its predictive power when profitability and investment variables are included in the model. Overall, the study illustrated that market anomalies have an effect on returns of the JSE, that the model specifications play an important role in an asset-pricing model and that the FF5-factor model is applicable on the JSE, however, it is not certain whether four or five factors apply to the South African market.

The efficient market hypothesis and behavioural finance have been the cause of much debate for decades, with one theory advocating market efficiency and the other opposing it. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) assumes that investors always act rationally and stock prices adjust rapidly to new information and should reflect all available information. In contrast, behavioural finance suggests that markets are not rational and investors make irrational decisions, which may lead them to over- or under-price stocks. Researchers for years have been empirically testing these assumptions in stock markets. However, there has been no consensus on which asset-pricing models perform better in capturing the effect of market anomalies and what impact these market anomalies have on the expected returns of different stock market’s sectors. The aim of the study was to test the effect of selected market anomalies on expected return in different sectors of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). More specifically, the study aimed to compare the performance of different asset-pricing models and their ability to account for market anomalies in different sectors of the JSE. Additionally, this study tested the applicability of the recent Fama and French five (FF5-factor) model, in estimating the expected return on the JSE. The study used a quantitative approach with secondary data over a period of 12 years starting from January 2002 to December 2014. The sample used in the study consists of monthly data obtained from McGregor BFA and the South African Reserve Bank. The study examined for the effects of size, value, January and momentum variables across six sectors of the JSE. This was accomplished by the use of various asset-pricing models such as the Capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the Fama and French three-factor model (FF3-factor), the Carhart four-factor model (C4F) and the recent five-factor model of Fama and French (FF5-factor). The study showed that whenever the asset-pricing models were not restricted, they tend to capture the market anomalies in four out of the six sectors examined. However, no market anomalies were found present in two of the six sectors analysed. In contrast, when the asset-pricing models are restricted, the asset-pricing models only seem to capture the effects of market anomalies in one of the six examined sectors. The findings in this study suggest that market anomalies are sensitive to model specifications, as restricting the models tends to capture the different market anomalies across the sectors of the JSE. The study also found that market anomalies differ across sectors and that some sectors are more efficient than others. The study also reveals that the FF5-factor model is able to account for expected returns on the JSE. In addition, the FF5-factor model tends to perform better when the model is restricted. It is also evident from the findings presented in this study, that the value anomaly loses its predictive power when profitability and investment variables are included in the model. Overall, the study illustrated that market anomalies have an effect on returns of the JSE, that the model specifications play an important role in an asset-pricing model and that the FF5-factor model is applicable on the JSE, however, it is not certain whether four or five factors apply to the South African market.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The research report investigated scrip dividends declared by companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Scrip dividends started becoming popular in 1993, due to the introduction of the secondary tax on companies (STC). The purpose of the study was to calculate the total amount of money not paid out as dividends, but retained within the company as cash. No single source could be found which provided sufficient dividend information. Eventually the JSE Monthly Bulletin, Reuters, McGregor BFA and the Hamman financial dataset had to be combined to collect a single set of scrip dividends. Changes in the number of shares issued were used as a way to calculate scrip dividends that were not available, or to crosscheck with the Hamman dataset. All along the way various validations were performed to ensure data consistency. For example, the percentage of shares for which scrip dividends were paid out was checked to ensure that the calculated amount of scrip shares issued were within acceptable boundaries. Furthermore, the equivalent scrip option value on the last date to register (LOR) was compared to the cash dividend option to ensure that the values were of equivalent sizes. In total, 754 scrip dividends were included in the report. For these dividends, R33 265 million was not paid out as cash dividends, but retained within the company. The equivalent share value of those shares on the LOR is R35 337 million. Only R19 576 million was paid as cash. This means that 63% of the total dividend payout was reinvested in the companies. Analysis of the LOR dates shows that 1995 to 1997 were the most popular years for scrip, with more than 130 cases every year. From 1994 to 2000, there were more than 40 scrip dividends every year. Not much has been written in South Africa about the impact and usage of scrip dividends. The research report has for the first time created a consolidated datasheet containing scrip dividend details, allowing further research. The R33 265 million reinvested in the economy has perhaps helped fuel the successful growth of the South African economy over the last 10 years. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsingsverslag ondersoek skripdividende wat verklaar is deur maatskappye op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs (JSE). Skripdividende het gewild begin raak in 1993 as gevolg van die bekendstelling van sekondêre belasting op maatskappye (STC). Die doel was om die totale kontantbedrag te bereken wat behou is in die maatskappy, en dus nie uitbetaal is as dividende nie. Geen enkele bron kon gevind word wat volledige inligting oor skripdividende bevat het nie. Uiteindelik is die JSE Monthly Bulletin, Reuters, McGregor BFA en die Hamman finansiele datastel gekombineer in 'n enkele versameling van skrip dividende. Veranderinge in the totale hoeveelheid uitgereikte aandele is gebruik as 'n manier om die skrip aandele wat uitgereik is te bereken, en te korrelleer met die Hamman datastel. Gedurende die dataversamelingsproses is daar verskeie toetsdatapunte bereken, om die data integriteit te verseker. Byvoorbeeld, die persentasie aandele waarvoor skrip uitgereik is, is geverifieer om seker te maak dat die berekende hoeveelheid skrip aandele binne geldige grense was. Verder is die kontantwaarde van die skrip aandeel, soos op die laaste dag van registrasie (LOR), vergelyk met die kontant dividendopsie, om te verifieer dat die waardes van soortgelyke groottes was. In totaal is daar 754 skripdividende ingesluit in die verslag. Vir hierdie dividende is R33 265 miljoen nie uitbetaal as kontant dividende nie, maar as skrip aandele. Die ekwivalente aandeelwaardes van hierdie uitgereikte aandele op die LOR was R35 337 miljoen. Slegs R19 576 miljoen is uitbetaal as kontant. Dit beteken dat 63% van die totale dividenduitbetaling herbelê is in die maatskappye as skrip-aandele. Analise van die dividend LDR datums wys dat 1995 tot 1997 die gewildste jare was vir skrip, met meer as 130 gevalle per jaar. Van 1994 tot 2000 is daar elke jaar meer as 40 skripdividende uitgereik. Daar is nog nie veel oor die impak en gebruik van skripdividende in Suid-Afrika geskryf nie. Die navorsingsverslag het vir die eerste keer 'n gekonsolideerde skripdividend datastel geskep waarmee verdere navorsing gedoen kan word. Die R33 265 miljoen wat herbelê is in die ekonomie het moontlik bygedra tot die ongekende groei in die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie oor die laaste 10 jaar.

Study project (MBA) -- University of Stellenbosch, 2001. / University of Stellenbosch Business School / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study considers share tips published in a respected publication, and determines whether an investment strategy based on the recommendations of its journalists could allow investors to exceed the stock market average. Six journalists were selected, and the recommendations that they made over a 30-month period grouped into “buy” and “do not buy” recommendations. The change in price of the recommended shares was measured after periods of one week, one month, three months and six months after the date of publication and after inclusion of dividends paid during those periods, returns were calculated. The returns attained for each share was compared to the return on the JSE-Overall Index during that period, the difference between the two being the excess return of the share. The excess returns of the shares recommended by each journalist were used to calculate portfolio excess returns, on which tests of statistical significance carried out. The portfolio of one journalist showed statistically significant excess returns in all four periods under review. One other achieved a statistically significant excess return over 1 week. No other portfolios achieved significant excess returns over the market. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie werkstuk word die aandeelwenke wat in ‘n gerespekteerde tydskrif gepubliseer is, ondersoek om vas te stel of ‘n beleggingsstrategie wat op die wenke van die joernaliste gebaseer is, die mark gemiddlede opbrengs kan klop. Ses joernaliste is gekies, en hul wenke oor ‘n periode van 30-maande is geklassifiseer in “koop” en “nie koop” wenke. Vir die “koop” wenke is die prys-verandering oor tydperke van een week, een maand, drie maande en ses maande gemeet. Opbrengste met insluiting van dividende is bereken. Die opbrengste is met die JE-algehele indeks se opbrengs vir elk van die periodes vergelyk, en die verskil is as bo-opbrengste gedefinieer. Die bo-opbrengste vir elke aandeel is gebruik om portfolio bo-opbrengste te bereken, weereens vir elk van die periodes. Hierdie bo-opbrengste is vir statistiese betekenisvolheid getoets. Die portfolio van een joernalis het statisties beteksnisvolle bo-opbrengste vir al vier periodes getoon. Die portfolio van een ander joernalis het statisties betekenisvolle bo-opbrengste vir ‘n hou-periode van een week getoon. Geen ander portfolios het bo-opbrengste getoon nie.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research report investigates the history and current status of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Alternative Exchange and its performance over time. The focus is on comparing the AltX with the JSE Main Board, the JSE top 40, The JSE Small Cap Index and London’s Alternative Investments Market AIM. The different listing requirements and the JSE Main Board will be explored. It then goes further to compare the performance of the JSE with that of AltX and AIM over time. A comparison between listings and de-listings is drawn between the AltX and the JSE Main Board. Complete risk analysis is then conducted in an attempt to compare the risk of listing on AltX, JSE and AIM and determine whether the AltX holds more risk than the other exchanges given its relaxed listing requirements and market sentiment around AltX. In comparing risk analysis with market sentiment as well as actual results, it can be concluded that AltXwhen analysed using beta; standard deviation; maximum draw down; Value at Risk; and the Sharpe ratio, does not carry significantly more risk than the JSE Main Board or AIM. The AltXdoes meet its requirements and is doing what it is designed to do, namely offering an opportunity for small and medium sized companies to raise capital and providing investors with the opportunity to become shareholder and trade in those shares as well as being a spring board to the JSE Main Board, but that moving to the Main Board does not always create more value for shareholders or has a positive influence on share price or liquidity.This brings the conclusion that company performance is still based on the individual performance of the company and not dependant on where the company is listed.

This thesis considers the modelling of ultra high frequency (UHF) …nancial data from South African markets. The approach to be taken is that such irregularly spaced data can be viewed as a realization of a marked point process. We propose a statistical model that incorporates both the unequally spaced transaction times (the points) as well as the movements of the associated returns (the marks). In all data sets investigated, no change in the value of the mark accounts for more that half the observations. If “no change” is considered as the censoring of some underlying process, we can explicitly model both the censoring of marks and the underlying process by utilizing methods for Markov chains and missing values. All models considered hitherto in the literature assume homogeneity of structure within a UHF data set. Data analyses indicate strongly that such an assumption is not justi…ed. The proposed model aims to exploit this observation. The diurnal (time of day) e¤ect is a form of non-stationarity commonly found in UHF data sets. We show that the method currently considered standard practice is inadequate and we will propose modi…cations of it. Consideration is given to the classi…cation of heterogeneous subsets that arises naturally in UHF data, for instance daily subsets of a UHF data set. We …nd evidence in support of some market microstructure theories, but no theory is supported by all data sets considered. We pay attention to technical issues surrounding the application of certain tests to large samples. As large samples are common in UHF data sets methods that are sensitive to large sample size, for example the Ljung-Box test, are not suitable. / Professor Freek Lombard