abstract: Current policies subsidizing or accelerating deployment of photovoltaics (PV) are typically motivated by claims of environmental benefit, such as the reduction of CO2 emissions generated by the fossil-fuel fired power plants that PV is intended to displace. Existing practice is to assess these environmental benefits on a net life-cycle basis, where CO2 benefits occurring during use of the PV panels is found to exceed emissions generated during the PV manufacturing phase including materials extraction and manufacture of the PV panels prior to installation. However, this approach neglects to recognize that the environmental costs of CO2 release during manufacture are incurred early, while environmental benefits accrue later. Thus, where specific policy targets suggest meeting CO2 reduction targets established by a certain date, rapid PV deployment may have counter-intuitive, albeit temporary, undesired consequences. Thus, on a cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) basis, the environmental improvements attributable to PV might be realized much later than is currently understood. This phenomenon is particularly acute when PV manufacture occurs in areas using CO2 intensive energy sources (e.g., coal), but deployment occurs in areas with less CO2 intensive electricity sources (e.g., hydro). This thesis builds a dynamic Cumulative Radiative Forcing (CRF) model to examine the inter-temporal warming impacts of PV deployments in three locations: California, Wyoming and Arizona. The model includes the following factors that impact CRF: PV deployment rate, choice of PV technology, pace of PV technology improvements, and CO2 intensity in the electricity mix at manufacturing and deployment locations. Wyoming and California show the highest and lowest CRF benefits as they have the most and least CO2 intensive grids, respectively. CRF payback times are longer than CO2 payback times in all cases. Thin film, CdTe PV technologies have the lowest manufacturing CO2 emissions and therefore the shortest CRF payback times. This model can inform policies intended to fulfill time-sensitive CO2 mitigation goals while minimizing short term radiative forcing. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Civil and Environmental Engineering 2013

<p>Critical materials are crucial to the wide deployment of clean energy technologies and advanced technology such as electric vehicles (EVs), smartphones, high-efficiency lighting, and wind turbines. Particularly, rare earth elements (REEs) and lithium are key elements for clean energy and EVs. However, higher REEs and lithium demand for clean energy transformation, extreme supply reliance on certain area exports, and severe environmental issues during mining and processing cause uncertainty for future clean energy and transportation development. Our study aims to develop dynamic LCA with scenario analysis to simulate the future possible sustainability pathways for critical materials for stakeholders and apply life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the latest REEs and lithium extraction and recycling technologies. Dynamic LCA (DLCA) integrates the temporal datasets to predict the future environmental impact of a product. The databases are mainly from Ecoinvent and Critical Materials Life Cycle Assessment Tool (CMLCAT). Python package Brightway2 and Temporalis are used to simulate the DLCA.</p> <p>The study of DLCA on the REEs industry reveals the future predictive REEs environmental impact trend, providing a clear policy strategy to reach sustainability goals for stakeholders. The results show that shifting REEs resources from China to Australia and increasing the recycling rate are key factors in reducing environmental impact in the future. Considering the degradation of rare earths ore and storage depletion in China, such as the decreased production of heavy REEs from Ion adsorption clay in southern China, exploration, and inclusion of potential REEs production projects will be the possible sustainable way in the following decade. </p> <p>LCA of RE recovery from room temperature ionic liquid (RTIL) electrochemical process helps us explore the benefits of recycling RE from the e-waste. Although RTIL contributes a higher impact on ozone depletion and global warming, close-loop recycling RTIL could reduce substantial environmental impact. Lithium recovery from geothermal brine provides the great source for fulfilling the domestic demand of the U.S. Compared to the conventional Li compounds production, this method is efficient and has 25-41% lower global warming potential. The government, researchers, and industry could benefit from this study for exploring advantage and drawback strategies for the future environmental footprint of NdFeB magnet production and identifying environmental hotspots of the latest recycling and extraction process of REEs and lithium.</p>