Main purpose of this thesis is finding the possibilities of operation analysis methods{\crq} use in logistics, proposition of specific situation{\crq}s optimal solution in specific company, confrontation of the above with reality and proposition of possible improvements. The use of scientific methods during decision making should have been the reason of this thesis. The theoretical knowledge that has been gained from literature research has been verified in factual conditions at company CSAD JIHOTRANS, Inc. To gain the knowledge of the environment I used the consultations with company management, system studying based on provided data and collective service{\crq}s trading conditions. ABC analysis and MODI and VAM methods were used as a scientific approach. In the thesis I processed data given to me concerning shipments that had been registered in collection centers for each month of the year 2008. 6 possible alternatives evaluating the basic and also sub-optimal solutions came out from solved problems of methods VAM and MODI. Option I is the most suitable from the point of optimization standard {--} minimal value of special-purpose function. Option VI will be the most suitable if I proceed from the current system functioning. But option VI satisfies the optimization standard the least. Therefore I suggest shifting the original pick-ups S5 into the competence of S2 and then to place it in between the 8 regional centers that are connected by the central trucktransport.

As pesquisas para o desenvolvimento de uma cidade mais sustentável, com menos trânsito e mais qualidade de vida, apontam a necessidade de elaboração de políticas voltadas para o transporte de carga. As entregas urbanas de carga sendo feitas no período noturno pode ajudar a melhorar o trânsito da cidade, e evitar acidentes com ciclistas, pedestres, ônibus e carros. Ao mesmo tempo, entregar mercadorias a noite pode ser vantajoso tanto para os varejistas quanto para os transportadores. Da perspectiva dos varejistas, pode haver mais agilidade em conferir e armazenar mercadorias, melhora do nível de atendimento ao cliente, e mais certeza quanto à pontualidade do horário da chegada do caminhão. Quanto aos transportadores, o tempo de rota pode diminuir, assim como tempo para buscar uma vaga para estacionar; as filas de caminhões podem diminuir, oferecendo mais eficiência ao roteiro de entregas. Entretanto, alguns problemas podem surgir ao executar os descarregamentos noturnos, relacionados à emissão de ruídos e ao risco de assaltos. O objetivo desta pesquisa é assinalar os principais aspectos que influenciam na eficiência das entregas noturnas no âmbito operacional, e identificar quais são os problemas relacionados à execução das entregas noturnas. Para cumprir estes objetivos foi aplicado um questionário a 100 motoristas, e outro questionário a 84 varejistas que realizam operações com entregas/recebimento de mercadorias no período noturno. A partir destes dados, análises estatísticas foram feitas para assinalar quais variáveis de análise estão mais associadas à escolha por executar as atividades de frete no período noturno. Os resultados mostraram que os ruídos são mais críticos para a tomada da decisão do horário de entrega, para os varejistas. Quanto aos resultados atrelados à eficiência logística, a vantagem em fazer entregas noturnas está na maior agilidade para conferir e armazenar as mercadorias e maior assertividade quanto ao horário de entrega, devido às condições do trânsito e da facilidade em estacionar o veículo para efetuar o descarregamento. / The findings of the researches for a more sustainable city, with less traffic and better quality of life, point to the need of new policies for the transport of cargo. Urban overnight deliveries can improve the traffic of city and prevent accidents involving cyclists, pedestrians, buses and cars. At the same time, overnight deliveries might be favorable, both for retailers and drivers. From the perspective of retailers, overnight deliveries may be more efficient in checking and storing goods, more punctual and improve customer service level. For drivers, time route and time to find a place to park may decrease; truck queues may be reduced, which offers more efficiency to the delivery route. However, some problems may arise when performing the night freight, regarding to its noise and the risk of robbery. The objective of this research is to verify the main aspects that maximize the efficiency of night deliveries in the operational context and identify the night freight problems. In order to meet these objectives, a questionnaire was applied to 100 drivers, and another questionnaire to 84 retailers. Statistical methods were used to make sure the noises as the most critical aspects of the night deliveries, for retailers. As for the results related to logistic effectiveness, the advantage of making overnight delivery is the agility to check and store the goods and the accuracy on the delivery schedule, due to traffic conditions, and the ease to park the vehicle to perform the download. In addition, multivariate analysis method combines the quality of customer service with the punctuality of the truck and the agility in check and store goods.

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo principal estudar a estabilidade assintótica de Equações Diferenciais com Retardamento utilizando as técnicas desenvolvidas por Faria e Liz (2003). Para analisar a estabilidade assintótica, a abordagem utilizada neste trabalho é a de impor uma condição de dominância do termo sem retardo sobre a parte com retardo, possibilitando o estudo de soluções oscilatórias. Além disso, o estudo culminará em um teorema que garante essa estabilidade em uma Equação do tipo Lotka-Volterra, para a qual o método de Liapunov não se aplica. Para atingir o objetivo, estudou-se inicialmente a teoria geral de estabilidade de Equações Diferenciais Funcionais e a teoria de estabilidade para alguns tipos dessas equações / This paper\'s main objective is to study the asymptotic stability of Dierential Equations with Delay using the techniques developed by Faria and Liz (2003). To analyze the asymptotic stability, the approach used in this study is to impose a condition of dominance of the term without delay on the part delayed, allowing the study of oscillatory solutions. In addition, the study will culminate in a theorem ensures such stability in an equation Lotka-Volterra type, for which the Liapunov method does not apply. To achieve the objective, we studied initially the general theory of stability of Functional Dierential Equations and stability theory for some types of these equations

A inclusão da eletroencefalografia nos protocolos de pesquisa diagnóstica para DA é plenamente justificada por sua larga disponibilidade, baixo custo, alta sensibilidade, o que possibilita a realização de exames seriados e o acompanhamento da evolução do estudo neurológico. Objetivo: Determinar um índice de corte, para utilizaçào na prática clínica, no auxilio diagnóstico da doença de Alzheimer. Metodologia: Avaliamos dois grupos de indivíduos compostos por 57 voluntários normais e idade superior a 50 anos comparados a 50 indivíduos com DA provável. Realizamos registros de EEG em vigília, olhos fechados e repouso por 30 minutos e computamos as potências espectrais das bandas de frequência alfa e teta, para todos os eletrodos, e calculamos a razão alfa/teta. Realizamos a regressão logística das variáveis razão alfa/teta da potência média do eletrodo C3 e do eletrodo O1e calculamos uma fórmula para o auxílio no diagnóstico da DA com um acerto cuja, sensibilidade para DA de 76, 4 % e especificidadede 84,6 % e a área sob a curva ROC 0.92. Conclusão: A regressão logística da razão alfa/teta do Espectro da potência média do EEG é um bom marcador para discriminar pacientes com doença de Alzheimer de controles normais / The inclusion of electroencephalography in diagnostic research protocols for AD is fully justified given EEG\'s wide availability, low cost and high sensitivity, allowing serial exams and neurological evolution follow-ups. Objective: To determine a screening index for use in routine clinical practice to aid the diagnosis of Alzheimer\'s disease. Methodology: Two groups of individuals older than 50 years, comprising a control group of 57 normal volunteers and a study group of 50 patients with probable AD, were compared. EEG recordings were performed of subjects in a wake state with eyes closed at rest for 30 mins. Spectral potentials of the alpha and theta bands were computed for all electrodes and the alpha/theta ratio calculated. Logistic regression of the variables alpha/theta of the mean potential of the C3 and O1 electrodes was carried out. A formula was calculated to aid the diagnosis of AD yielding 76.4 % sensitivity and 84.6 specificity for AD with an area under the ROC curve of 0.92. Conclusion: Logistic regression of the alpha/theta of the Spectrum of the mean potential of EEG represents a good marker for discriminating between AD patients and normal controls

Orientador: Ricardo Abid Castillo / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociências / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-19T02:27:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ilario_ClaytonGomes_M.pdf: 4395478 bytes, checksum: 64de6eb47129fd2df338378b5d17792d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: Objetiva-se nesse estudo analisar a região agrícola do Oeste da Bahia, porção do Cerrado incorporada às fronteiras agrícolas modernas, através de três aspectos principais: (1) a produção agrícola e agroindustrial, em bases modernas e especializadas, incluindo aspectos do circuito espacial dos principais produtos, particularmente soja, milho e algodão herbáceo; (2) a circulação, expressa no desenvolvimento de um sistema logístico de armazenamento e movimentação; e (3) a constituição de um ambiente normativo e regulatório, de âmbito federal (Agências Reguladoras, Planos e Programa Federais de investimentos e concessões de serviços públicos a empresas privadas), estadual (incentivos para atrair produtores e grandes empresas do agronegócio) e privado (associações setoriais). A partir da análise das fronteiras agrícolas em áreas do Cerrado, em especial no Oeste Baiano, propomos uma discussão dos conceitos de região competitiva e logística, compreendidos como novas formas regionais inseridas no atual período da globalização e sua correspondente forma de circulação corporativa, identificando quais são os principais agentes envolvidos (sobretudo o Estado e grandes empresas) na produção e circulação de commodities agrícolas. O recorte espacial analisado abrange os municípios de São Desidério, Barreiras e Luís Eduardo Magalhães, localizados no Oeste Baiano, por apresentarem maiores atributos de competitividade em relação aos outros municípios da região. Dessa forma, essa pesquisa propõe um estudo sobre a organização, o uso e a regulação do território através da análise do Oeste Baiano como região competitiva, além de considerar as demandas logísticas da produção e movimento de commodities (sobretudo soja, milho e algodão herbáceo) e suas implicações para o planejamento territorial / Abstract: The objective of this study is to analyze the agricultural region of the West of Bahia, portion of Cerrado incorporated to the modern agricultural borders, through three main aspects: (1) the agricultural and agroindustrial production, in modern and specialized bases, including aspects of the space circuit of the main products, particularly soy, maize and herbaceous cotton; (2) the circulation, expressed in the development of a logistic system of storage and movement; and (3) the constitution of a normative and regulatory environment, in federal scope (Federal Regulation Agencies, Federal Plains and Programs of investments, and concessions of public services to private companies), in state scope (incentives to attract producers and great companies of the agrobusiness) and private (sectorial associations). From the analysis of the agricultural borders in areas of Cerrado, in special in the West of Bahia, we consider a quarrel of the concepts of competitive region and logistic, understood as new regional forms inserted in the current period of globalization and its corresponding form of corporative circulation, identifying which are the main involved agents (mainly the State and great companies) in the production and circulation of agricultural commodities. The analyzed space clipping encloses the cities of São Desidério, Barreiras and Luis Eduardo Magalhães, located in the West of Bahia, for presenting greaters attributes of competitiveness in relation to the other cities of the region. Thus, this research considers a study on the organization, the use and the regulation of the territory through the analysis of the West of Bahia as competitive region, beyond considering the logistic demands of the production and movement of commodities (mainly soy, maize and herbaceous cotton) and its implications for the territorial planning / Mestrado / Análise Ambiental e Dinâmica Territorial / Mestre em Geografia

As a consequence from the last financial crisis that began 2007 in USA, regulatory frameworks are continuously improved in order to limit the banks’ risk exposure. Two of the amendments are Basel III and IFRS 9. Basel III regulates the capital a bank is required to hold while IFRS 9 is an accounting standard for how banks and insurance companies should classify their assets and estimate their future credit losses. Mutually for both Basel III and IFRS 9 is the estimation of future credit losses which include probability of default in the calculations.The objective of this thesis was therefore to develop scoring model that can estimate the probability of default in lending capital to enterprises based on information from financial statements. The aim is that the developed model also can be used in the daily operations to reduce fixed costs by optimizing the processes and increase the profit on each loan issued. The model should estimate probability of default within 500 days from the last known information and be customized for small and medium size enterprises.The model is based on logistic regression and is therefore returning values between 0 and 1. Parameters that the model consists of can either be calculated or retrieved directly from financial statements. The authors have during the development of the model divided the data, consisting of information from enterprises, based on branches. The grouping of data has been performed to create as homogenous sets of data as possible in order to increase the degree of explanation for each model. The final solution will thus consist of several models, one for each set of data. The validation of the models is performed, on a new set of enterprises where it is observed how well the models can discriminate enterprises defined as defaults from non-defaults.The master thesis did result in a number of models that are calibrated on default, non-defaults and models developed on data divided on branches. By using the calibrated models, it is possible to discriminate defaulting from non-defaulting enterprises which has been the objective of this thesis. During the project the importance of dividing data into homogenous groups has been shown in order to better create models that more accurately can identify defaults from non-defaults. / Som en konsekvens av finanskrisen som började 2007 i USA tillkom ytterligare regelverk för att minimera bankers riskexponering. Två av de regelverk som tillkommit är Basel III och IFRS 9. Basel III reglerar kapitaltäckningen för en bank medan IFRS 9 är en standard för hur banker och försäkringsbolag skall klassificera tillgångar samt estimera framtida kreditförluster. Gemensamt för de båda regelverken är estimeringen av kreditförluster som bland annat baseras på risken för fallissemang.Målet med detta examensarbete är därför att utveckla en scoringmodell som kan estimera risken för fallissemang vid utlåning till företag baserat på information från dess årsredovisningar. Modellen kommer även kunna användas i den operativa verksamheten för att reducera fasta kostnaderna genom att effektivisera processer och då öka avkastningen på varje utlånad krona. Modellen kommer att estimera risken för fallissemang inom 500 dagar från senast kända informationen och den kommer att anpassas till svenska små och medelstora företag.Modellen är baserad på logistisk regression och kommer därför att returnera värden mellan 0 och 1 samt bestå av parametrar som antingen kan beräknas eller hämtas direkt ur en årsredovisning. För att öka modellens förklaringsgrad har författarna vid kalibreringen av modellerna delat in datat efter branscher. Uppdelningen har gjorts för att skapa så homogena grupper som möjligt och lösningen kommer därför att bestå av flera olika modeller. Validering av modellerna sker genom att på nytt data testa hur bra företag som definierats som fallissemang kan diskrimineras från företag som inte definieras som fallissemang.Rapporten resulterar i ett antal modeller som är baserade på konkurser, icke konkurser samt modeller baserade på ett data som är uppdelat på branscher. Genom att använda de kalibrerade modellerna så går det att diskriminera konkurser från icke konkurser vilket varit målet med denna rapport. Arbetet har också påvisat vikten av att dela in datat i homogena grupper för att på ett bättre sätt skapa modeller som mer exakt kan urskilja konkurser från icke konkurser.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Computer Science / William H. Hsu / The contribution of the proposed dissertation is the application of affective intelligence in human-developed spaces where people live, work, and recreate daily, also known as built environments. Built environments have been known to influence and impact individual affective responses. The implications of built environments on human well-being and mental health necessitate the need to develop new metrics to measure and detect how humans respond subjectively in built environments. Detection of arousal in built environments given biometric data and environmental characteristics via a machine learning-centric approach provides a novel and new capability to measure human responses to built environments. Work was also conducted on experimental design methodologies for multiple sensor fusion and detection of affect in built environments. These contributions include exploring new methodologies in applying supervised machine learning algorithms, such as logistic regression, random forests, and artificial neural networks, in the detection of arousal in built environments. Results have shown a machine learning approach can not only be used to detect arousal in built environments but also for the construction of novel explanatory models of the data.

[pt] O objetivo deste trabalho é descrever como as empresas de comércio eletrônico organizam seus processos logísticos, a partir de estudos de casos, que foram realizados em duas expressivas empresas de comércio eletrônico no Brasil: Submarino e Americanas.com. O levantamento de dados foi baseado no modelo de Leading Edge desenvolvido por Bowersox(1989). O modelo refere-se às dimensões que foram encontradas em empresas norte-americanas, que possuíam um desempenho logístico superior às demais. As dimensões encontradas nessas empresas de vanguarda são: formalização, monitoramento de desempenho, tecnologia de informação e flexibilidade. Das empresas de comércio eletrônico que foram pesquisadas, observou-se que elas estão caminhando na mesma direção das empresas de vanguarda norte-americanas pesquisadas por Bowersox (1989), embora existam muitos pontos que podem ser melhorados em seu processo logístico como, por exemplo tonarem-se mais flexíveis e possuírem um sistema de monitoramento mais eficiente. / [en] The main goal of this work is to describe how the e-commerce firms organize its logistic process, based on two case studies that has been undertaken with two important brazilian e-commerce firms: Submarino and Americanas.com. The study was based on the Leading Edge model developed by Bowersox(1989). The model refers to the dimensions which has been observed in american firms which present a superior logistic performance related to the others. The dimension found in this leading firms are: formalization, performance monitoring, information technology and flexibility. From the researched e-commerce firms it has been observed that they are taking the same direction as the leading north-american firms, although exists several points that must be improved in their logistic process as, for example, became more flexible and make use of a more efficient monitoring system. / [es] EL objetivo de este trabajo es describir cómo las empresas de comercio electrónico organizan sus procesos logísticos, a partir de estudios de casos que fueron realizados en dos empresas de comércio electrónico en Brasil: Submarino y Americanas.con. El levantamiento de datos tuvó como base el modelo de Leading Edge desarrollado por Bowersox(1989). Este modelo se refiere a las dimensiones encontradas en empresas norteamericanas, que poseían un desempeño logístico superior al resto de las empresas. Las dimensiones encontradas en esas empresas de vanguardia son: formalización, control de desempeño, tecnología de información y flexibilidad. Se observó que las empresas de comercio electrónico que fueron investigadas están caminando en la misma dirección de las empresas de vanguardia norteamericanas investigadas por Bowersox (1989); aunque existen muchos puntos que pueden ser mejorados en el proceso logístico como, por ejemplo ser más flexibles y poseer un sistema de control más eficiente

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is the leading cause of preventable death in the United States and has been shown to be harmful to human health. Among alternative tobacco products, e-cigarettes have been widely regarded as the safest substitute to the traditional cigarette. However, debate remains about their safety and possible ill effects. AIM: The purpose of this study was to assess characteristics associated with e-cigarette use (everyday/some days/no use) and examine factors related to former smokers replacing a traditional smoking habit with e-cigarette use (yes/no). METHODS: A secondary data analysis was conducted with the Public Use Files (PUFs) for the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of tobacco use. Bivariate and multivariable unweighted and weighted generalized linear models were developed for value and comparative purposes, as well as multilevel models to account for within geographical region clustering. Ordinal logistic regression was used to analyze the ordinal e-cigarette use outcome, and logistic regression with the e-cigarette smoking status of former smokers outcome. RESULTS: Covariates associated with e-cigarette use included having rules that allowed smoking non-combustible tobacco inside the home (everyday vs no use: OR = 0.33, CI = 0.27-0.41; somedays vs no use: OR = 0.58, CI = 0.53-0.64), older than 35 years old (everyday vs no use: OR = 0.63, CI = 0.52-0.75; somedays vs no use: OR = 0.86, CI = 0.76-0.96), and positive or neutral self-opinion on tobacco (everyday vs no use: OR = 0.88, CI = 0.73-1.05; somedays vs no use: OR = 1.38, CI = 1.22-1.55). Factors related to e-cigarette use in former smokers included rules allowing non-combustible tobacco products inside the home (Weighted: OR = 0.19, CI = 0.15-0.24; Unweighted: OR = 0.15, CI = 0.12-0.19; Mixed: OR = 0.19, CI = 0.15-0.24), aged 18-35 years (Weighted: OR = 1.45, CI = 1.16-1.80; Unweighted: OR = 2.91, CI = 2.27-3.72; Mixed: OR = 1.45, CI = 1.16-1.80), and not having any health insurance (Weighted: OR = 0.57, CI = 0.44-0.75; Unweighted: OR = 0.47, CI = 0.34-0.64; Mixed: OR = 0.57, CI = 0.44-0.75). DISCUSSION: Family tolerance of smoking and one’s self-opinion on tobacco were factors found to be strongly associated with e-cigarette use. The prevalence of e-cigarette use among young adults raises concerns and necessitates a multi-disciplinary approach to monitor and intervene. Further study is needed to better understand e-cigarette smoking consumption behavior and effects.

The secondary structure of proteins is predicted using various binary classifiers. The data are adopted from the RS126 database. The original data consists of protein primary and secondary structure sequences. The original data is encoded using alphabetic letters. These data are encoded into unary vectors comprising ones and zeros only. Different binary classifiers, namely the naive Bayes, logistic regression and classification trees using hold-out and 5-fold cross validation are trained using the encoded data. For each of the classifiers three classification tasks are considered, namely helix against not helix (H/∼H), sheet against not sheet (S/∼S) and coil against not coil (C/∼C). The performance of these binary classifiers are compared using the overall accuracy in predicting the protein secondary structure for various window sizes. Our result indicate that hold-out cross validation achieved higher accuracy than 5-fold cross validation. The Naive Bayes classifier, using 5-fold cross validation achieved, the lowest accuracy for predicting helix against not helix. The classification tree classifiers, using 5-fold cross validation, achieved the lowest accuracies for both coil against not coil and sheet against not sheet classifications. The logistic regression classier accuracy is dependent on the window size; there is a positive relationship between the accuracy and window size. The logistic regression classier approach achieved the highest accuracy when compared to the classification tree and Naive Bayes classifiers for each classification task; predicting helix against not helix with accuracy 77.74 percent, for sheet against not sheet with accuracy 81.22 percent and for coil against not coil with accuracy 73.39 percent. It is noted that it is easier to compare classifiers if the classification process could be completely facilitated in R. Alternatively, it would be easier to assess these logistic regression classifiers if SPSS had a function to determine the accuracy of the logistic regression classifier.