Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Defense Decision-Making and Planning))--Naval Postgraduate School, Sept. 2004. / Thesis advisor(s): Peter R. Lavoy. Includes bibliographical references (p. 61-62). Also available online.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:26:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2011-10-07Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:15:11Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 oliveira_ls_me_fran.pdf: 533392 bytes, checksum: de5775245fe1b878e2785f67ae7a8d8f (MD5) / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) / Neste trabalho, analisa-se o processo da adesão do Brasil ao Tratado de Não-Proliferação de Armas Nucleares (TNP) a partir de uma abordagem em três níveis analíticos (individual, doméstico e internacional) sobre a trajetória da questão nuclear brasileira nos anos 1990, enfocando os governos de Fernando Collor de Mello (1990-92) e Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-98). A principal questão do estudo é desvelar as razões pelas quais houve a subscrição brasileira do TNP. Em busca de respostas para a problemática, o desenvolvimento da análise, contudo, leva a perspectiva a extrapolar os fatos referentes unicamente à questão nuclear para, então, compreender a relação existente entre a assinatura do TNP pelo País, assim como de outros acordos prevendo o compromisso nacional com a não-proliferação de armas nucleares, das outras ADM e dos vetores (mísseis balísticos), com o projeto de país pensado pelas novas lideranças políticas brasileiras, o projeto de “potência pacífica”, que previa a renúncia do País ao fortalecimento dos seus atributos de ordem estratégico-militar e estabelecia o recurso ao softpower como a ferramenta para a inserção internacional brasileira nos anos 1990 / This work analyses the process of Brazilian adherence on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) under the approaching in three main analytical levels (individual, subregional, international) on the path of Brazilian nuclear question in the 1990s, focusing on Fernando Collor de Mello (1990-92) and Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s government (1995-98). The main goal is to reveal the reasons by which there was the signature on NPT. Searching answers for that, the analysis, although, leads the perspective to see beyond the nuclear question to comprehend the relation between Brazilian signature on NPT, as others agreements defining Brazilian commitment on the non-proliferation principle, including all of WMD and ballistic missile, with the national project thought by new political leaderships, called “peaceful power”, which established Brazilian renouncement on the development of is strategic attributes and the election of soft-power as the mean to Brazilian international insertion in the 1990’s

Orientador: Samuel Alves Soares / Banca: Vagner Camilo Alves / Banca: Eduardo Mei / Resumo: Neste trabalho, analisa-se o processo da adesão do Brasil ao Tratado de Não-Proliferação de Armas Nucleares (TNP) a partir de uma abordagem em três níveis analíticos (individual, doméstico e internacional) sobre a trajetória da questão nuclear brasileira nos anos 1990, enfocando os governos de Fernando Collor de Mello (1990-92) e Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-98). A principal questão do estudo é desvelar as razões pelas quais houve a subscrição brasileira do TNP. Em busca de respostas para a problemática, o desenvolvimento da análise, contudo, leva a perspectiva a extrapolar os fatos referentes unicamente à questão nuclear para, então, compreender a relação existente entre a assinatura do TNP pelo País, assim como de outros acordos prevendo o compromisso nacional com a não-proliferação de armas nucleares, das outras ADM e dos vetores (mísseis balísticos), com o projeto de país pensado pelas novas lideranças políticas brasileiras, o projeto de "potência pacífica", que previa a renúncia do País ao fortalecimento dos seus atributos de ordem estratégico-militar e estabelecia o recurso ao softpower como a ferramenta para a inserção internacional brasileira nos anos 1990 / Abstract: This work analyses the process of Brazilian adherence on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) under the approaching in three main analytical levels (individual, subregional, international) on the path of Brazilian nuclear question in the 1990s, focusing on Fernando Collor de Mello (1990-92) and Fernando Henrique Cardoso's government (1995-98). The main goal is to reveal the reasons by which there was the signature on NPT. Searching answers for that, the analysis, although, leads the perspective to see beyond the nuclear question to comprehend the relation between Brazilian signature on NPT, as others agreements defining Brazilian commitment on the non-proliferation principle, including all of WMD and ballistic missile, with the national project thought by new political leaderships, called "peaceful power", which established Brazilian renouncement on the development of is strategic attributes and the election of soft-power as the mean to Brazilian international insertion in the 1990's / Mestre

This study is designed to assess the effectiveness of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime and analyze theories for effectively analyzing countries that are a risk for proliferating nuclear armaments. The initial phase of my research is designed to assess the existing literature and primary theoretical approaches for analyzing nuclear non-proliferation initiatives and potential nuclear proliferators. My main means of analysis will be to examine the national and international actors involved in each case. With this method, I plan to analyze a government at the level of each of its ruling institutions. Each of these institutions will be analyzed in the context of Joseph Cirincione's five drivers and barriers: security, prestige, domestic politics, technology, and economics. This study will then review multiple historical cases of countries and treaties related to the nuclear non-proliferation issue in the context of my method of analysis. In particular, each historical study will discuss major actors and institutions with respect to the five major proliferation concepts, as a means of demonstrating the validity of my method. The primary section of my thesis will be the application of my method to one of the preeminent nuclear proliferation threats today: Iran. After a discussion of the physical status of Iran's nuclear program, I will begin my analysis in terms of my concepts, and will examine the principal actors involved in the Iranian nuclear dispute. These will be the Iran's moderate and conservative factions, as well as the U.S., Israel, the EU-3, and IAEA, and they will be examined in the context of the five drivers and barriers. The final section will be my overall risk analysis for Iran. My preliminary analysis is that regime survival is the most critical issue when it comes to the principal motivations of a state to develop nuclear arms. If this is correct, policy options designed to take advantage of the actors' positions in Iran can be formulated based on the specific conditions that prevail in Iran.

The dissertation aims to examine the intelligence coordination mechanisms in the US and UK with a view to comparing them and identifying similarities and differences between them. To achieve this aim, the study provides a conceptual framework of intelligence as a system and explains the rationale for coordination between the respective intelligence services. The study analyses the coordination mechanisms which existed in the US and UK prior to the 11 September 2001 attacks and the Second Gulf War. The study examines the findings and recommendations of inquiries in both the UK and US that followed these events. This is followed by an analysis of the measures that were introduced after these events in order to strengthen and improve intelligence coordinating mechanisms in the US and UK. The study highlights the need for centralised intelligence coordination systems, and illustrates that coordination is required to ensure that intelligence services function as a unified intelligence community. The study concludes that the nature of twenty-first century threats demands that intelligence communities improve coordination, which entails a shift from decentralised services toward a centralised, unified intelligence community. Copyright / Dissertation (MSS)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Political Sciences / unrestricted

No / This volume explores in close detail the events and factors leading up to the second Gulf War in 2003 and considers whether war with Iraq was inevitable. Nick Ritchie and Paul Rogers argue that after the election of George W. Bush, conflict between Iraq and the United States was probable, and that after 9/11 it became virtually inevitable. They begin by setting the story of Iraq, Bush and 9/11 within the broader context of the importance of the Persian Gulf to enduring US national security interests and go on to examine the intense politicking that surrounded the conflict and still reverberates today. The authors examine US policy towards Iraq at the end of the Clinton administration, the opposition in Congress and Washington's conservative think tanks to Clinton's strategy of containment, and the evolution of Iraq policy during the first eight months of the Bush presidency and the growing pressure for regime change. They also explore the immediate focus on Iraq after the attacks of September 11 that marked a watershed in US national security policy and chart the construction of the case against Iraq through 2002 and the administration's determination to end Saddam Hussein's regime at all costs. The Political Road to War with Iraq will be of great interest to all students and scholars of US foreign policy, war and peace studies and international relations.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / In 1991, shortly after the combat portion of the Gulf War, key military and government leaders identified an urgent requirement for an accurate on-site tool for analysis of chemical, biological, and nuclear hazards. Defense Nuclear Agency (now Defense Threat Reduction Agency, DTRA) was tasked with the responsibility to develop a software tool to address the requirement. Based on extensive technical background, DTRA developed the Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC). For over a decade HPAC addressed the users requirements through on-site training, exercise support and operational reachback. During this period the HPAC code was iteratively improved, but the basic architecture remained constant until 2002. In 2002, when the core requirements of the users started to evolve into more net-centric applications, DTRA began to investigate the potential of modifying their core capability into a new design architecture. This thesis documents the requirements, analysis, and architectural design of the newly prototyped architecture, Integrated Weapons of Mass Destruction Toolset (IWMDT). The primary goal of the IWMDT effort is to provide accessible, visible and shared data through shared information resources and tem plated assessments of CBRNE scenarios. This effort integrates a collection of computational capabilities as server components accessible through a web interface. Using the results from this thesis, DTRA developed a prototype of the IWMDT software. Lessons learned from the prototype and suggestions for follow-on work are presented in the thesis. / Major, United States Army

The aim of this diploma thesis was "To Analyse the awareness of the population in the area of South Bohemia region in context of emergencies in case of using weapons of mass destruction". In the theoretical part of the thesis the issue of the weapons of mass destruction is described from the description of particular groups to some historical consequences, to their arrangement or detailed description of the main types of weapons, and their harmful effects on a human body. As the issue is really wide, the main text is focused on the basic specification for easier understanding. Not many details are presented, but the most important information and some sidelights were given the priority. The target of the thesis was not to prepare a detailed and broad description, but on the other hand the comprehensive view of the studied issue, so a reader can obtain clear and brief analysis of the topic. For the practical part of the thesis the quantitative research and the method of a survey for obtaining data were chosen and done from January to March 2019. The questionnaire consists of four parts. Each part is specifically orientated. In the introductory part of the questionnaire there are three initial questions given to divide the responders according to their gender, age and education. After that there is the part A, which consists of ten questions, and it is aimed at the public awareness about the issue of public safety. The other parts B, C and D have five questions each, and they are aimed at the particular weapons of mass destruction - chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. The main goal of the survey was to find the level of the public awareness in South Bohemia region. The obtained data show that the correct answers reached approx. 55 %, but the range of all particular correct answers was from 30 % up to 83 %. These results show that there is potential room for improvement of the public awareness by simple and well-arranged brochures, by creating professional web-sides or groups for modern society that can use social network such as Facebook or Instagram. The diploma thesis can be also used as an educational material.

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2018-03-21T12:11:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Raquel de Bessa Gontijo de Oliveira.pdf: 2010350 bytes, checksum: 3bb9fd16aab66146e3196022202d4a1c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-21T12:11:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Raquel de Bessa Gontijo de Oliveira.pdf: 2010350 bytes, checksum: 3bb9fd16aab66146e3196022202d4a1c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-26 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Nuclear weapons proliferation represents a yet unsolved problem in the international security agenda, and it is intimately related to ballistic missile proliferation. Specialized literature on this topic contains different hypotheses about what causes proliferation, which can be distinguished between those that refer to states’ demand for these weapons, and those that emphasize the role of supply, represented by states’ access to sensitive technology through international civil cooperation. In this research, we investigate the role that different factors play in influencing states’ decision to acquire or relinquish nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and we contrapose forces related to demand and supply. Through a quantitative analysis, we identify some relevant correlations, among which the relevance of insecurity as a driving force of proliferation and the apparent irrelevance of access to technology through international cooperation are particularly noteworthy. From our statistical analysis, we select the case of Canadian non-acquisition to be the object of more detained investigation, through which we confirmed the importance of the security context and the marginal role of access to technology, besides identifying an influence of identity aspects on the non-acquisition policy. In light of this, we conclude that factors relating to demand have a far larger impact on proliferation than factors relating to supply / A proliferação de armamentos nucleares representa um problema ainda não solucionado na agenda de segurança internacional, e está intimamente relacionada à proliferação de mísseis balísticos. A literatura sobre este tópico contém diferentes hipóteses sobre o que causa a proliferação, as quais podem ser distinguidas entre aquelas que se referem à demanda que os Estados têm por esses armamentos e aquelas que enfatizam o papel da oferta, ou seja, da facilidade de acesso à tecnologia sensível através da cooperação civil internacional. Nesta pesquisa, investigamos o papel de diferentes elementos sobre as decisões dos Estados de adquirirem, ou não, armamentos nucleares e mísseis balísticos, contrapondo as forças relacionadas à demanda e à oferta. Através de uma análise quantitativa, identificamos algumas correlações relevantes, com destaque para a importância da insegurança como uma força motriz da proliferação e a aparente irrelevância do acesso à tecnologia através de acordos de cooperação internacional. A partir de nossa análise estatística, selecionamos o caso da não-aquisição canadense como objeto para uma investigação mais detida, em que confirmamos a importância do contexto de segurança e o papel marginal do acesso à tecnologia, além de identificarmos uma influência de aspectos identitários sobre a decisão de não-aquisição. Diante disso, concluímos que os fatores relativos à demanda têm impacto muito superior sobre a proliferação do que fatores relacionados à oferta

Uppsatsen diskuterar möjliga lufthot mot Sverige i dag och i framtiden intill ca 2020 ur ett teknisktperspektiv, samt föreslår att kryssningsrobotar samt autonoma substridsdelar från dessa bör varadimensionerande för utformningen av det svenska luftförsvaret.Stridsdelar med såväl konventionella-, massförstörelse-, som möjliga framtida vapen behandlas. Somvapenbärare diskuteras flygplan, helikoptrar, obemannade farkoster (UAV/UCAV), kryssningsrobotar,ballistiska missiler och satelliter. / The composition discusses possible future air- and missile threats against SWEDEN, approximately untilthe year 2020. It suggests that the treat from cruise missiles equipped with autonomous submuntionsshould be dimensioning for the Swedish air-defence. Conventional-, nuclear-, biological-, chemical- andpossible future warheads are discussed. Fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles, cruisemissiles, ballistic missiles and satellites are evaluated as weapon carriers. / Avdelning: ALB - Slutet Mag 3 C-upps.Hylla: Upps. ChP T 00-02