Coastal flooding, caused by sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and tropical cyclones, is a growing threat. Previous studies have documented mortality associated with historical coastal flooding and developed predictions of mortality risk based on SLR and human development. This study updates those estimates and provides a new model by including new mortality data from events between 2010 and 2020 and an updated method for estimating the population exposed to coastal flooding events. Primary data sources include the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and the Sea Level Impacts Input Dataset by Elevation, Region, and Scenario (SLIIDERS) model. We first characterize trends in exposed populations and mortality associated with coastal flooding between 1990 and 2020. A mixed effect regression model estimates mortality associated with coastal flooding and investigates the influence of variables including Human Development Index (HDI), country population, and event frequency. The frequency of coastal flooding events between 1990 and 2020 has increased, while there was an overall decrease in recorded deaths associated with coastal flooding events. The association between mortality and coastal flood exposure is reduced in countries with higher populations. This result suggests countries with larger populations may buffer risks in exposed regions. Results showed significant reduction in mortality risk, by approximately 34% (95% CI, 17-47%), associated with an increase of approximately 61 million in country-level population. Additionally, a 7% increase (95% CI, 3-11%) in mortality risk with each additional occurrence of coastal flooding events was observed. By leveraging this knowledge, decision-makers can develop targeted policies and interventions to enhance community preparedness, reduce vulnerability, and ultimately save lives in the face of increasing coastal flooding risks. / Master of Science / This study aims to explore the association between coastal flooding deaths and socio-economic variables globally. Additionally, it seeks to analyze trends in coastal flooding mortality, exposed populations, and flooding frequency across global regions, as well as income regions differentiated by the World Bank, from 1990 to 2020. Coastal flooding mortality data for every coastal flooding event were sourced from EM-DAT, a widely utilized disaster database. We utilized a climate model to retrieve the population exposed to coastal flooding for every event. Human Development Index (HDI) data and country population from 1990 to 2020 were taken from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and World Bank databases, respectively. A statistical model was used to estimate mortality risk associated with coastal flooding events and to investigate the influence of variables including Human Development Index (HDI), population, and event frequency. The frequency of coastal flooding events between 1990 and 2020 has increased, while there was an overall decrease in recorded deaths associated with coastal flooding events. The association between mortality and coastal flood exposure is reduced in countries with higher populations. This result suggests countries with larger populations may buffer risks in exposed regions. Results showed significant reduction in mortality risk, by approximately 34% (95% CI, 17-47%), associated with an increase of approximately 61 million in country population. Additionally, a 7% increase (95% CI, 3-11%) in mortality risk with each additional occurrence of a coastal flooding event was observed.

This dissertation studies the adverse financial implications of "longevity risk" and "mortality risk", which have attracted the growing attention of insurance companies, annuity providers, pension funds, public policy decision-makers, and investment banks. Securitization of longevity/mortality risk provides insurers and pension funds an effective, low-cost approach to transferring the longevity/mortality risk from their balance sheets to capital markets. The modeling and forecasting of the mortality rate is the key point in pricing mortality-linked securities that facilitates the emergence of liquid markets. First, this dissertation introduces the discrete models proposed in previous literature. The models include: the Lee-Carter Model, the Renshaw Haberman Model, The Currie Model, the Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) Model, the Cox-Lin-Wang (CLW) Model and the Chen-Cox Model. The different models have captured different features of the historical mortality time series and each one has their own advantages. Second, this dissertation introduces a stochastic diffusion model with a double exponential jump diffusion (DEJD) process for mortality time-series and is the first to capture both asymmetric jump features and cohort effect as the underlying reasons for the mortality trends. The DEJD model has the advantage of easy calibration and mathematical tractability. The form of the DEJD model is neat, concise and practical. The DEJD model fits the actual data better than previous stochastic models with or without jumps. To apply the model, the implied risk premium is calculated based on the Swiss Re mortality bond price. The DEJD model is the first to provide a closed-form solution to price the q-forward, which is the standard financial derivative product contingent on the LifeMetrics index for hedging longevity or mortality risk. Finally, the DEJD model is applied in modeling and pricing of life settlement products. A life settlement is a financial transaction in which the owner of a life insurance policy sells an unneeded policy to a third party for more than its cash value and less than its face value. The value of the life settlement product is the expected discounted value of the benefit discounted from the time of death. Since the discount function is convex, it follows by Jensen's Inequality that the expected value of the function of the discounted benefit till random time of death is always greater than the benefit discounted by the expected time of death. So, the pricing method based on only the life expectancy has the negative bias for pricing the life settlement products. I apply the DEJD mortality model using the Whole Life Time Distribution Dynamic Pricing (WLTDDP) method. The WLTDDP method generates a complete life table with the whole distribution of life times instead of using only the expected life time (life expectancy). When a life settlement underwriter's gives an expected life time for the insured, information theory can be used to adjust the DEJD mortality table to obtain a distribution that is consistent with the underwriter projected life expectancy that is as close as possible to the DEJD mortality model. The WLTDDP method, incorporating the underwriter information, provides a more accurate projection and evaluation for the life settlement products. Another advantage of WLTDDP is that it incorporates the effect of dynamic longevity risk changes by using an original life table generated from the DEJD mortality model table. / text

Thesis (Ph.D. (Tropical Medicine)--Mahidol University, 2006. / LICL has E-Thesis 0018 ; please contact computer services. LIRV has E-Thesis 0018 ; please contact circulation services.

In the presented diploma thesis we study possibilities of forecasting mortality rates and we explain the most used models to measure it. The longevity and mortality risk are characterized and options for transfer of risks to other subjects are suggested. Further we applied LifeMetrics tool to predict mortality and quantify longevity risk in our data set, also possibilities of its usage are described in more details. The aim of the work is to provide the reader with sufficient amount of theoretical information about the used stochastic models for mortality prediction. Also the work may be helpful to gain deeper knowledge about longevity risk.

One of the classical problems in finance is that of an economic unit who aims at maximizing his expected life-time utility from consumption and/or terminal wealth by an effective asset-liability management. The purpose of this thesis is to determine the optimal investment strategies , from the point of view of their economic utility, for individual and institutional investors such pension funds.

The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health was used to test predictions from life history theory. It was hypothesized that (1) in young adulthood an emerging life history strategy would exist as a common factor underlying many life history traits (e.g., health, relationship stability, and economic success), (2) both environmental harshness and unpredictability would account for unique variance in expression of adolescent and young adult life history strategies, and (3) adolescent life history traits would predict young adult life history strategy. These predictions were supported. The current findings suggest that the environmental parameters of harshness and unpredictability have concurrent effects on life history development in adolescence, as well as longitudinal effects into young adulthood. In addition, life history traits appear to be stable across developmental time from adolescence into young adulthood.

Life re-insurers are exposed to mortality catastrophe risk. Mortality CAT bonds are a tool that can mitigate this risk. However, a key disadvantage of this tool is the existence of population basis risk, which occurs whenever there are differences between reference and insured populations. In this thesis, we propose a method to measure population basis risk of mortality CAT bonds. We consider a fictitious mortality CAT bond based on the mortality rates of two regional populations. We first obtain mortality change indexes by calibrating the MBMM model on these two regional populations. Then we use copula-based semi-parametric models to simulate the serial dependence and interdependence structure simultaneously between two regional mortality change indexes. Finally, we analyze the hedge effectiveness of the bond, from which we are able to quantify the population basis risk. We find that population basis risk decreases under certain circumstances.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Stockholm : Karol. inst., 2006. / Härtill 5 uppsatser.

Thesis (D.P.H.)--University of Michigan.

Thesis (D.P.H.)--University of Michigan.