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La thèse est consacrée à la recherche des catastrophes marines (tsunamis, ondes de tempête) dans les Antilles françaises, en utilisant des modèles analytiques et numériques de mécanique des fluides. L'accent est mis sur le développement de modèles de mouvement de glissements de terrain et des vagues causées par ces glissements. Le modèle le plus simple du glissement de terrain «solide block» est utilisé pour évaluer les caractéristiques des flux pyroclastiques du volcan Soufrière-Hills (Montserrat). Un modèle plus complexe de modélisation de glissement de terrain (modèle de Savage-Hutter) a été étudié analytiquement, donnant ainsi une nouvelle famille de solutions exactes décrivant le mouvement de l'écoulement par gravité non linéaire dans une vallée ou dans un canyon sous-marin. Le modèle comprend des ondes simples (Riemann waves),le cas d'un barrage qui cède (dam-break problem), des solutions auto-similaires dans la M-fonne et « chapeaux paraboliques ». Grâce à la théorie linéaire de l'eau peu profonde nous avons étudié le processus de génération de tsunamis par des glissements de terrain de volume variable, se déplaçant à une vitesse variable dans un bassin de profondeur variable. Dans le cas d'un fond marin particulier (cas sans "réflexion"), les phénomènes de résonnance ont été étudiés dans un bassin à profondeur variable. Nous avons utilisé des méthodes numériques pour la résolution non-linéaire des équations des eaux peu profondes afin d'analyser des catastrophes marines réelles (les ondes de tempête causées par le cyclone Lili en 2002, le tsunami volcanique de 2003 à Montserrat) et probables (un tsunami prés des côtes de la Martinique). Des données sur les catastrophes / The dissertation is devoted to research in the field of marine natural hazards (tsunamis, storm surges) in the French West Indies, using analytical and numerical models of fluid mechanics. Emphasis is placed on the development of models of landslide motion and generated tsunami waves. The simple "solid block" model is used to evaluate the characteristics of pyroclastic flow Soufriere Hills volcano (Montserrat). The "fluid model" of a landslide (so called Savage-Hutter model) is studied analytically; within this model a new family of exact solutions that describe the motion of nonlinear gravity flow in a valley or underwater canyon is found: nonlinear Riemann wave, dan break problem, self-similar solutions (M - wave and parabolic cap). In the framework of the linear shallow water theory the process of generation of tsunami waves by landslides of variable volume moving with variable velocity above the basin of variable depth is studied. For the specific bottom profile ("reflectionless" one) the resonant phenomena is investigated in the basin of variable depth. Numerical methods are used to analyze marine hazards: historical (storm surges, caused by Cyclone LILI in 2002; volcanic tsunami 2003 on Montserrat) and possible events (possible tsunami of the coast of Martinique). Various data on marine natural disasters are obtained during field surveys (volcanic tsunami in 2003, stonn surges caused by Hurricane Dean in 2007). Designed catalogs of tsunamis and storm surges are created based on results of numerical modeling and field studies; some statistical analysis is perfomed

À l’été 2010, la Russie, gouvernée par le tandem formé par Dmitri Medvedev, son Président, et Vladimir Poutine, son Premier ministre, se trouve frappée par des feux de forêt massifs. Alors que ces incendies touchent les régions les plus occidentales du pays, y compris Moscou, sa capitale, ses gouvernants se retrouvent face à l’injonction de communiquer, c’est-à-dire de partager avec les gouvernés une certaine lecture de l’état des choses. Venant rompre le fonctionnement ordinaire d’une société, la catastrophe ouvre, en effet, un terrain de communication, c’est-à-dire un espace d’échanges entre producteurs de sens, et engendre en cela un exercice du pouvoir d’ordre symbolique. Reposant la question initialement formulée par Claude Gilbert, à savoir : « Quel est le pouvoir du pouvoir lors des crises post-accidentelles ? » (Gilbert, 1992, p.18), cette thèse se propose de débuter l’analyse là où Gilbert la concluait, c’est-à-dire par une prise en compte du symbolique dans l’exercice du pouvoir politique en temps de catastrophe. Appréhendant la catastrophe comme un moment de communication, saturé par les discours et les images produits par les organisations gouvernementales, mais aussi comme un moment de lutte entre représentations concurrentes de l’événement, l’enjeu est de se pencher sur la dimension représentative du pouvoir politique ou, plus précisément, sur la représentation-figuration comme vecteur d’exercice de la domination en temps de catastrophe naturelle dans le contexte de la Russie des années 2000. / While governed in tandem by President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Russia suffered from widespread forest fires in summer 2010. As the fires particularly plagued Russia’s western regions, including the capital city of Moscow, Russia’s national leaders faced the task of communicating to all of the governed a certain reading of the disaster. By disturbing ordinary societal functioning, disasters create a communication field—that is, a space for exchange among meaning producers—that invites exercises of symbolic power. To readdress a question first formulated by Claude Gilbert—namely, “What is the power of power in post-accident crises?”(Gilbert, 1992, p. 18)—this doctoral dissertation proposes to extend Gilbert’s analysis by considering the importance of symbolic power and representation in exercises of political power during disasters. By understanding disaster as a moment of communication, saturated with speeches and images produced by governmental organizations, yet also as a time of struggle among competing representations of the event, this project aims to examine the representative dimension of political power—or more precisely, representation as a means of exercising power—during natural disasters in early 21st-century Russia.

During development process, especially under the impact of climate change, natural disaster is one of the major challenges. In fact, the degree of devastation of natural disasters such as storms, floods and landslides are enormous, causing severe damage to people, property and environmental degradation. These natural disasters increasingly occurring more frequently in the last 20 years claimed the lives of many people. Unlike natural disasters, catastrophes are often related to human factors. Thus, the policy on response, treatment should also take into account the legal process in order to ensure that the principle of the polluter must bear responsibility after incidents and catastrophes. The catastrophe is a serious disruption of a community activity, causing loss of life, environment and material on a large scale. Normally catastrophe is beyond the capacity of affected communities to cope with, if only sources power of that community is used. The impact of economic - social development, climate change and natural disasters, environmental pollution situation, the capacity to respond to environmental incidents ... has been the pressure and challenge to Vietnam. / Trong quá trình phát triển, đặc biệt dưới tác động của biến đổi khí hậu, thiên tai là một trong những thách thức lớn. Trong thực tế, mức độ tàn phá của thiên tai như bão, lũ và sạt lở đất là rất lớn, gây thiệt hại nặng nề về người, tài sản và gây suy thoái môi trường. Những thảm họa do thiên tai gây ra đang ngày càng xảy ra thường xuyên hơn trong 20 năm qua, cướp đi sinh mạng của nhiều người. Khác với thiên tai, thảm họa môi trường thường liên quan đến yếu tố con người. Do đó, chính sách ứng phó, xử lý cũng cần tính đến các quá trình pháp lý nhằm đảm bảo nguyên tắc người gây ô nhiễm phải chịu trách nhiệm sau sự cố, thảm họa. Thảm họa là sự phá vỡ nghiêm trọng hoạt động của một cộng đồng, gây ra những tổn thất về người, môi trường, vật chất trên diện rộng. Thảm họa thường vượt quá khả năng đối phó của cộng đồng bị ảnh hưởng nếu chỉ sử dụng các nguồn lực của cộng đồng đó. Tác động của sự phát triển kinh tế - xã hội, biến đổi khí hậu và thiên tai, thực trạng ô nhiễm môi trường, năng lực ứng phó với sự cố môi trường… đã và đang là những áp lực và thách thức không nhỏ với Việt Nam.

This work analyses disposable tools of business crisis management to manage crisis which are induced by natural threats and it considers possibilities of these methods using. On basis of performed analysis then in the practical part it uses the acceptable methods and tools to look for threats and risks of the firm and suggests optimal structure of crisis plan.

En el Perú, existe una gran necesidad de reducir el impacto de los desastres naturales ocasionados por el fenómeno El Niño, ya que genera cuantiosas pérdidas, algunas pueden ser tanto humanas como materiales. Este evento hidro-climático, que azotó al país por última vez en el año 2017, evidenció que no existen soluciones tecnológicas para reducir las consecuencias de este tipo de acontecimientos. Por tal motivo, el presente proyecto pretende, analizar los principales peligros e impacto de los desastres naturales del fenómeno “El Niño” en el Perú, la aplicación de las TIC que hoy en día se utilizan en la gestión de desastres naturales, el diseño de un catálogo de soluciones tecnológicas incluyendo para cada una su arquitectura física y el costo aproximado de implementación, la validación de las soluciones tecnológicas a través de expertos en desastres climatológicos e investigación tecnológica, y por último, definir una hoja de ruta para la implementación de las soluciones tecnológicas propuestas. Se espera que el catálogo ayude a las entidades peruanas públicas o privadas, encargadas de la gestión de desastres naturales, a poner en marcha soluciones TIC que supongan una mejora y un mejor resultado en la atención de desastres sin necesidad de tener un amplio conocimiento sobre las TIC y que brinden una gama de posibilidades tanto en la diversidad de componentes que conforma cada solución tecnológica y costos. / In Peru, there is a great need to reduce the impact of natural disasters caused by the El Niño southern oscillation phenomenon (ENSO), since it generates large losses both human and material. This hydro-climatic event, which hit the country for the last time in 2017, showed that there are no technological solutions to reduce the consequences of this type of events. For this reason, this project aims to analyze the main dangers and impact of natural disasters of the "El Niño" phenomenon in Peru, the application of ICT that are used today in the management of natural disasters, design a catalog of technological solutions including, for each one, its physical architecture and the approximate cost of implementation, the validation of the technological solutions through experts in climatological disasters and technological research, and finally, define a Roadmap for the proposed technological solutions. It is expected that the catalog will help Peruvian public or private entities, in charge of natural disaster management, to implement ICT solutions that will improve and improve disaster response without needing to have extensive knowledge about the ICT and that offer a range of possibilities both in the diversity of components that make up each technological solution and costs. / Tesis

When hurricane Gudrun occurred in 2005, the Swedish crisis management system was put on its head. New political reforms together with the aftermath of the tsunami in Southeast Asia challenged the professional actors during the crisis. As Sweden has been relatively spared from natural disasters, Gudrun became one of the worst crises in Swedish history. People died both directly during the storm but also later during the reconstruction phase. After the storm had passed, almost an entire annual felling of the Swedish forest had been lost, which caused enormous costs both for the forest owners but also for the electricity and telecommunications companies. Despite the fact that Sweden is often seen as a state with strong welfare with welldeveloped public assistance systems, Gudrun highlighted differences in people’s vulnerability during the disaster. Furthermore, the study intends to investigate how social capital can function as an underlying mechanism for people’s vulnerability. The study also leads to a critical discussion about the Swedish crisis management system and people’s trust in government officials. Through a qualitative content analysis, the study will examine inequalities in social capital can generate different access to resources. The crucial conclusion of the study is that people’s vulnerability during Gudrun was partly conditioned by individuals network positions and social capital, and that great emphasis had been placed on institutions ability to manage the disaster, which reduced the risk perception and people’s ability to activate their own social networks.

With globalisation and global warming threats, natural disasters happen at a faster rate, and their impact is drastically more prominent than before. In this thesis, we investigate the actions the organisation Newtech performed in three post-natural disaster environments to enter the markets and benefit from them. By analysing the key actions an organisation can take in order to be more likely to benefit in a post-natural disaster market, the intention is to make more ventures aware of this tappable market and how to profit from entering it. This research uses a one case study to investigate the nuanced perspective of a venture that has, on multiple occasions, entered post-natural disaster markets and what key actions performed. From evaluating pre-existing literature and patterns spotted in the empirical data collected through interviews with the organisation, there appeared five key actions for non-local ventures that strive to enter a post-natural disaster market. The actions discovered by this thesis are (1) spot the opportunity, (2) investigate the environment of the market pre-arrival,  (3) prepare based on the investigation, (4) continuously observe the market, (5) make adaptions if necessary.

Many small business owners lack strategies needed to prevent permanent business closure in the wake of extreme natural disaster situations. After a natural disaster, small businesses suffer financial losses in millions of dollars related to damage and destruction that disrupt their lives, families, and communities. This multiple case study explored strategies that 5 small business owners in northeastern Florida used to avoid permanent business closure in the aftermath of a natural disaster. The theory of planned behavior and vested interest theory were the conceptual frameworks used in this multiple case study. In-depth interviews with purposively selected small business owners were supplemented with a review of documentation from archival records. Yin's 5-step analysis guided the coding process of participants' responses, and member checking was used to validate the transcribed data. The major themes of the study revealed the owners' strategies relating to flood barriers, maintaining adequate insurance coverage, damage and destruction aftermath, and experience with natural disasters. This study's implications for social change include contributing to social stability and continuing economic growth by benefitting small business owners without a natural disaster plan or a plan that needs updating, new small business owners, and community organizations. This study may benefit small businesses by providing lessons learned on how to survive natural disasters.

This dissertation consists of three chapters concerning topics in economic history and labor economics. The first chapter studies how the 1906 San Francisco Fire impacted the biographies of those who lost their homes in the fire, while the second chapter shows that destination quality is a key determinant for the returns to childhood migration. The third chapter proposes a novel strategy to estimate the gender wage gap. The first chapter explores the short- and long-run consequences of the 1906 San Francisco Fire, one of the largest urban fires in American history. I use linked US Census records to follow San Francisco residents and their sons from 1900 to 1940. Implementing a spatial regression discontinuity design across the boundary of the razed district to identify the effect of the fire, I find that the fire displaced households away from San Francisco in the short- and medium-term, it forced men into lower-paying occupations, and out of entrepreneurship. Constructing a novel measure of kin presence, I provide suggestive evidence for risk-sharing among extended family in San Francisco, which mitigated the disruptive effects of the fire. While individuals recover over time in many dimensions, the negative effect on business ownership is persistent over decades. Moreover, affected children have lower educational attainment. Therefore, my findings reject the hope for a “reversal of fortune” for the victims, in contrast to what is found for more recent natural disasters such as hurricane Katrina. In the second chapter, I show that destination quality, measured as average educational attainment among permanent residents, is a key determinant for the returns to childhood migration in Indonesia. First, I document that average differences in educational outcomes are small between children who moved domestically and those who did not. However, conditional on having migrated, destination turns out to be very important. Exploiting variation in the age of migration, I show that children who spend more time growing up in better districts have higher graduation rates and more years of completed schooling. These effects are persistent and result in better labor market outcomes. In the third chapter (joint with Hannah Illing and Linh Tô), we propose a novel strategy to estimate the gender wage gap by comparing men and women who succeed each other in the same job position. We identify unexpected worker deaths in German social security data in 1980-2019, and then compute the wage gap between the deceased worker and their successor for different gender combinations. We find that holding the job position constant, men who replace deceased women earn substantially higher wages. The opposite is true when women follow deceased men. The implied "replacement gender wage gap" in the 1980 to 2019 period is about 15 to 19 percent. In addition, we find that the gap has decreased over time, and it is higher in West Germany compared to East Germany.