Includes bibliographical references. / Household incomes in developing countries often rely on a variety of sources. Analyzing the effects on income inequality of these different sources can help understand developments underlying overall inequality. South Africa’s levels of inequality have been characterized as remaining “stubbornly high”(Leibbrandt and Finn, 2012). Studies show that in the past 20 years, Gini coefficients of per capita income have increased from 0.66 in 1993 to 0.70 in 2008. Lerman and Yitzhaki (1985) derived a method to decompose inequality of income by source followed by a derivation of the Gini Coefficient by Stark et al. (1986). It therefore becomes possible to assess the impact of changes in different components on inequality of total household income. This paper utilizes these techniques to focus on the effect of remittances on inequality in South Africa. Applying the decomposition of income sources to the South African National Income and Dynamics Survey (NIDS), the paper will take the analysis one step further by constructing a counterfactual that allows to compare current inequality levels to levels that would have prevailed had migration not taken place. For the construction of this counterfactual, conditional difference in difference matching will be employed and data on matched non-remittance households will be used to predict household incomes excluding remittances for migration households. The findings of this paper show that levels of inequality are still stagnating. While inequality measured by the Gini coefficient is lacking significant improvement, the counterfactual analysis shows that without remittances, inequality would be slightly worse than current levels. The counterfactual estimation thus supports the result of the decomposition of the Gini coefficient that also finds a minor inequality reducing effect of remittances.

This is a philosophical study of economics and cognitive psychology as sciences of human behaviour. Boundaries and interactions of the two sciences are examined with a close look at the experimental studies on judgement and decision making, and on strategic interaction in games. I argue, against conceptual scepticism, that not only is a science of human behaviour possible, but it is exemplified by both economics and psychology, which have been striving to measure decision-relevant psychological quantities and explain the behavioural anomalies that have emerged as a result of theoretical and empirical progress in measurement and experimentation. The dialectics of ‘crises and responses’ involved in this process reveals various ways in which representations, models and experiments are employed in the laboratory. I emphasize the precision of measurement and the severity of test as important methodological values in scientific progress, and argue that these values are the basis of theoretical progress. I explore alternative ways in which economic models of rational choice can be informed by psychology, and argue that a successful model should incorporate empirical findings from social and cognitive psychology, instead of maintaining familiar economic modelling strategies while relying on folk psychological intuitions. I propose that, in addition to modelling human behaviour as utility maximization, explicitly modelling human reasoning qua cognitive process may be the key to success. I point out two metaphysical stances—mechanistic and functional—implicit in the debates over the prospect of neuroeconomics, and consider their methodological implications to the study of human cognition and behaviour. I argue that it is unlikely that neuroscience will radically eliminate constructs of economic theory such as beliefs and preferences, based on the observation that recent brain-imaging studies of individual decision making largely presuppose constructs of cogntive psychology.

The reduction of the HIV prevalence rate in Uganda during the early 1990s is often attributed to the introduction of an ABC policy. The Ugandan government is thought to have maintained a consistent message that suggested behaviour change in response to the HIV epidemic - encouraging citizens to Abstain, Be faithful, and/or use Condoms. It is thought that such a policy provides individuals with behavioural 'options', allowing them to choose a manner of protecting themselves against HIV infection. Although often used as an example of a successful social policy, many questions regarding the case are still unanswered. This dissertation establishes what is and is not known about the decline in prevalence in Uganda, as well as the role played by the ABC policy in that decline. The dissertation takes the form of a literature survey using key terms relating to the case. The ABC concept and the issues relevant to its implementation are initially discussed on an abstract level. The dissertation then turns to the implementation of the ABC policy in Uganda and the alleged success thereof. Three key topics are discussed in relation to the case: 1) the available statistical evidence pertaining to HIV/AIDS rates, 2) the available statistical evidence of behaviour change in Uganda, and 3) the national policy employed by the Ugandan government during the past three decades. The ideological debate surrounding the current Ugandan policy is also discussed. From the analysis of the available literature on the ABC policy and the Ugandan case, it becomes evident that certain things are known about the topic while others are not. The literature shows that a decline in prevalence did indeed take place, but that the extent and timing of this decline are unclear. The literature also shows that prevention messages in the country did suggest a change in behaviour in response to the threat of HIV, but that the content of these messages was not consistent on a national level. 6 Most importantly, the literature does not support a clear link between the implementation of an ABC policy and behaviour change in Uganda, nor does it clearly support a link between an ABC policy and a decline in HIV prevalence. Further research on the effectiveness and potential negative impact of the ABC concept is necessary before it is widely implemented in other countries.

Includes bibliographical references. / This article explores the role of circulation, readership and reader demographics in the determination of advertising rates in South African consumer magazines. The study uses panel data collected between 2000 and 2003 to quantify the relationships by assigning implicit prices to various magazine characteristics. Furthermore, a synopsis of the structure of the magazine industry in South Africa is developed using cluster-analytic techniques. The analysis lends some statistical credence to some widely held beliefs in the publishing industry; namely that advertisers value the young, the educated and the affluent as audiences. The role of race and gender in the determination of magazine advertising rates is also explored.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 69-73). / This thesis draws attention to the complexities involved in forecasting economic indicators. A literature review examines the general use of forecasts, errors within forecasts and various methods of analysing the accuracy of forecasts. The focus of this paper is on the testing and measuring of forecast accuracy within the Economist Intelligence Unit Country Forecasts, in particular the forecast accuracy of GOP and Inflation. This is carried out through the assessment of four a priori hypotheses 1) High Income Country Forecasts are consistently more accurate than those forecasts made for countries in the Low Income Category. 2) The accuracy of forecasts decreases the more distant the forecast horizon becomes, therefore Current-Year (t) Forecasts will outperform One-Year-Ahead (t+1) Forecasts. 3) The EIU Forecasts outperform No-Change-Forecasts as measured by the Theil's U-Statistic. 4) The EIU can forecast turning points better than a Random Probability method of forecasting can. The Tests used to evaluate the above hypotheses are the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Theil U-Statistic and Turning Point Directional Analysis. The conclusion reached by this thesis is that the accuracy of forecasts decreases the more distant the forecast horizon becomes, therefore it can be said that Current-Year (t) Forecasts will outperform One-Year-Ahead (t+1) Forecasts. Additionally, the EIU Forecasts do outperform No-Change-Forecasts as measured by the Theil's U-Statistic. Therefore the EIU can forecast turning points better than a Random Probability method of forecasting can. Finally, this thesis concludes that there is little evidence to suggest that High Income Country Forecasts are consistently more accurate than those forecasts made for countries in the Low Income Category.

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 101-103)

This thesis aims to analyse the effect of hydrocarbons on Russian foreign policy in the post-communist period. In doing so it employs a constructivist meta-theory (actorstructure framework) and Susan Strange's approach to international political economy (IPE). The role of hydrocarbons in both the international political economy and Russia's domestic political economy is analysed. Thereafter a historical narrative outlining the affect of hydrocarbons on foreign policy from 1991-2008 is offered. There is also a brief focus on the role of Gazprom in Russian foreign policy. It is found that hydrocarbons affected Russian foreign policy through the impact they had on the state's ability to control the domestic political economy (which was diminished in the 1991-1999 period, but strengthened as international oil prices rose thereafter). Hydrocarbons, though a source of power, are also found to tie the Russian state to the interdependent international political economy of the globalised era. The analysis finds that the case supports the constructivist emphasis on the importance of understanding domestic issues when addressing the foreign policies of states. It also finds that the approaches used, Wendt's constructivism and Strange's IPE theory, work well in conjunction to illuminate foreign policy issues. A criticism of Strange's approach, however, is highlighted. She fails to give adequate attention to matters of geography in her model. This, it is argued, would be a fruitful endeavour for future IPE analysis, especially if addressed through the case of hydrocarbons in the IPE.

Economic diplomacy and commercial diplomacy as soft power tools plays an increasingly significant role in the enhancement of national economic goals and enhanced economic relations between countries. Economic diplomacy is carried out by a government to support its foreign policy goals or diplomacy (or both) by using a wide range of economic and diplomatic tools. The impact of diplomatic efforts to enhance economic relations can be measured through the growth of bilateral trade and FDI over a period of time, as well as the removal of trade barriers and increased cooperation in international organisations like the World Trade Organization. "Foreign policy is the outcome of economic policy, and until India has properly evolved her economic policy, her foreign policy will be rather vague.." -­ Jawaharlal Nehru India's foreign policy has increasingly become a function of its economic policy, and economic goals. As these goals have expanded to focus on different regions across the world, India's economic diplomacy toolkit has expanded to allow for the participation of more actors, in various arenas. No longer can India rely solely on the soft power it derives from a shared history and shared foreign policy principles. With bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation expanding across the globe, there is increasing pressure on countries to harvest both soft, hard and smart power efforts to build relations that serve their domestic economic and foreign policy goals. This thesis examines the concept and practice of economic diplomacy as it relates to India and Africa. While the existing literature on the subject is extensive, it is lacking in the analysis of country-­level exploratory studies, and comparisons on a regional level across the African continent. More specifically, it serves as an attempt to demonstrate the nuanced nature of India's economic diplomacy efforts in Africa. This study examines aspects of the economic diplomacy of India as it relates to Nigeria and Kenya, with the aim of investigating how different economic diplomacy efforts have translated into strengthened economic relations and benefits. These efforts are measured through the contribution of both state activities by the Ministry of External Affairs, and non-­state entities such as business organisations and the diaspora. These benefits are measured in the study through trade flows and foreign direct investment data. The discussion makes the conclusion that economic diplomatic efforts between strong regional economies can translate into enhanced trade and investment relations, and that India's efforts in this regard can be considered nuanced and vastly different in different regions in Africa.

This paper provides a quantitative empirical study of support for the China model in Africa. Using comprehensive and previously unpublished data from Afro barometer's sixth round (2014-2016) the paper offers the first large-n (n= 46741) multicounty (n=31) empirical evaluation of support for the Chinese model of development. The paper is structured around two research questions. First, what is the rate of preference in Africa for the China model? Second, what are the determinants that underlie this preference? The China model is a contested construct. An extended literature review is therefore employed to establish where the construct fits within existing literature and then identify the key features that can be measured by my model. The pursuing analysis has two main sections; one descriptive and one explanatory. The descriptive section seeks to establish what the rate of support for the China model is in Africa. This section also provides a summary of sentiments in Africa towards the Chinese engagement. This summary of sentiments is included for two reasons. Firstly, because no consensus exists on the tonality of sentiments towards China in Africa this topic is of interest in and of itself. Secondly, because, as the model will show, these attitudes are intimately linked to respondent likelihood of choosing the China model for development. The explanatory section utilizes a multilevel regression model to explore why Africans pick the Chinese model over other development models. The regression employs a broad set of variables on individual priorities for development, values on democracy and views on the Chinese engagement in the respondents own country. At the national level the model includes measures on country characteristics such as development level and regime type. The model also investigates the effect of an aggregate Chinese 'footprint' in individual African nations. This footprint consists of Chinese trade, foreign direct investment and development assistance. The data on Chinese FDI and AID is collected from innovative open-source research projects based in the United States. The paper finds considerable support for the China model in Africa. China was the second most popular choice of development model after the United States. In ten of the surveyed countries it was the dominant choice. The descriptive section finds that Africans are on average positive towards the Chinese engagement on the continent. The multilevel regression model finds that respondents who offer positive evaluations of China's engagement in their own country are much more likely to choose the Chinese model for development. Individual values on democracy and individual preferences on development are not found to influence choice of development model. The likelihood of respondents choosing the Chinese model decreases as a country's level of development increases. Respondents nested within freer societies are, surprisingly, more likely to choose the Chinese model of development. Increased Chinese presence in the form of aid and foreign direct investment is found to make respondents less likely to choose the China model. While increased imports from China increases the chance that respondents will choose China as their model for their country's development.

Includes abstract. / This mini dissertation analyses the claims that Uganda is the success story of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. Uganda was the first country to qualify for debt relief under this debt management programme, and has a reputation for being able to address its economic and social problems simultaneously. Furthermore, the manner in which Uganda has engaged with civil society has also received praise. Thus, some scholars believe that the country offers a model example for indicating the effectiveness of debt management programmes in general, and the HIPC Initiative in particular. However, other scholars are more critical, claiming that the successes that Uganda has experienced under the HIPC Initiative have been short lived, and have also compounded the country‘s indebtedness. There is therefore a robust debate in the literature regarding this topic as some scholars take a more optimistic view of the impact of the HIPC Initiative in Uganda, and other scholars take a more pessimistic stance. This mini dissertation surveys these contrasting views in the literature, and argues that because the HIPC Initiative failed to deliver the promises that it made Uganda was unable to sustain its achievements under the programme. The dissertation concludes that Uganda is not an HIPC Initiative success story.