<p>Breeding dispersal can be a way for an individual to improve its fitness. Own reproductive success has been shown to be a cue to dispersal among many bird species. Natural selection should favor dispersal to higher-quality territories and a larger territory is predicted to improve fitness. Data from male rock pipits, <em>Anthus petrosus littoralis</em>, on the Swedish west coast indicated, as predicted, that dispersal follows an unsuccessful breeding year. However, no fitness improvement was detected after dispersal, leading to the conclusion that dispersing in itself does not lead to better fitness. Instead it was the acquisition of a larger territory that was the main cause of fitness improvement, unrelated to whether a male returned to an old territory or dispersed to a new one. However, remaining in one's old territory showed to be more beneficial than dispersing. There was a high variation within the rock pipit populations of Nidingen and Malön, due to year-to-year territory quality variation and individual quality among the birds, which could have had a big effect on the outcome of the analyses of the effects of dispersal.</p> / <p>Att byta revir kan vara ett sätt för en individ att förbättra sin fitness. Den egna reproduktiva framgången har påvisats påverka beslutet om revirbyte. Naturligt urval borde favorisera byte till ett revir av högre kvalitet och ett större revir förutsägs förbättra fitness. Data från skärpiplärkor, <em>Anthus petrosus littoralis</em>, tyder på att ett misslyckat häckningsår leder till spridning. Däremot påvisades ingen förbättring av fitness efter spridning, vilket leder till slutsatsen att spridningen i sig inte leder till bättre fitness. Istället var det anskaffandet av ett större revir som var den huvudsakliga orsaken till fitnessförbättring, orelaterat till om en hanne utökade sitt gamla revir eller flyttade till ett nytt. Däremot visade det sig vara bättre att stanna kvar i sitt gamla revir än att flytta. Det fanns en stor variation bland Nidingens och Malöns populationer av piplärka, på grund av årlig variation i revirkvalitet och individuell kvalitet bland fåglarna, vilket kan ha haft en stor effekt på resultatet av analyserna av spridningseffekterna.</p>

Breeding dispersal can be a way for an individual to improve its fitness. Own reproductive success has been shown to be a cue to dispersal among many bird species. Natural selection should favor dispersal to higher-quality territories and a larger territory is predicted to improve fitness. Data from male rock pipits, Anthus petrosus littoralis, on the Swedish west coast indicated, as predicted, that dispersal follows an unsuccessful breeding year. However, no fitness improvement was detected after dispersal, leading to the conclusion that dispersing in itself does not lead to better fitness. Instead it was the acquisition of a larger territory that was the main cause of fitness improvement, unrelated to whether a male returned to an old territory or dispersed to a new one. However, remaining in one's old territory showed to be more beneficial than dispersing. There was a high variation within the rock pipit populations of Nidingen and Malön, due to year-to-year territory quality variation and individual quality among the birds, which could have had a big effect on the outcome of the analyses of the effects of dispersal. / Att byta revir kan vara ett sätt för en individ att förbättra sin fitness. Den egna reproduktiva framgången har påvisats påverka beslutet om revirbyte. Naturligt urval borde favorisera byte till ett revir av högre kvalitet och ett större revir förutsägs förbättra fitness. Data från skärpiplärkor, Anthus petrosus littoralis, tyder på att ett misslyckat häckningsår leder till spridning. Däremot påvisades ingen förbättring av fitness efter spridning, vilket leder till slutsatsen att spridningen i sig inte leder till bättre fitness. Istället var det anskaffandet av ett större revir som var den huvudsakliga orsaken till fitnessförbättring, orelaterat till om en hanne utökade sitt gamla revir eller flyttade till ett nytt. Däremot visade det sig vara bättre att stanna kvar i sitt gamla revir än att flytta. Det fanns en stor variation bland Nidingens och Malöns populationer av piplärka, på grund av årlig variation i revirkvalitet och individuell kvalitet bland fåglarna, vilket kan ha haft en stor effekt på resultatet av analyserna av spridningseffekterna.

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State-space modelling is a powerful tool to study ecological systems. The direct inclusion of uncertainty, unification of models and data, and ability to model unobserved, hidden states increases our knowledge about the environment and provides new ecological insights. I extend the state-space framework to create multi-species models, showing that the ability to model ecosystem interactions is limited only by data availability. State-space models are fit using both Bayesian and Frequentist methods, making them independent of a statistical school of thought. Bayesian approaches can have the advantage in their ability to account for missing data and fit hierarchical structures and models with many parameters to limited data; often the case in ecological studies. I have taken a Bayesian model fitting approach in this thesis. The predator-prey interactions between the hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) and red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) are used to demonstrate state-space modelling’s capabilities. The harrier data are believed to be known without error, while missing data make the cyclic dynamics of the grouse harder to model. The grouse-harrier interactions are modelled in a multi-species state-space model, rather than including one species as a covariate in the other’s model. Finally, models are included for the harriers’ alternate prey. The single- and multi-species state-space models for the predator-prey interactions provide insight into the species’ management. The models investigate aspects of the species’ behaviour, from the mechanisms behind grouse cycles to what motivates harrier immigration. The inferences drawn from these models are applicable to management, suggesting actions to halt grouse cycles or mitigate the grouse-harrier conflict. Overall, the multi-species models suggest that two popular ideas for grouse-harrier management, diversionary feeding and habitat manipulation to reduce alternate prey densities, will not have the desired effect, and in the case of reducing prey densities, may even increase the harriers’ impact on grouse chicks.