No description available.

Sulfur dioxide is a primary pollutant and a known respiratory irritant. While there is a small level of background SO2, elevated concentrations are caused by industrial emissions. Muscatine, IA was designated as an area of nonattainment due to the persistent elevated levels of SO2 in the area. There are currently no available methods for predicting potential SO2 violations in Muscatine, and very little research was found investigating predictive modeling efforts. This thesis examines atmospheric conditions in Muscatine caused by SO2 emissions from facilities near the city. The main goals were to examine the plume dispersion model AERMOD for its ability to accurately map pollution levels, and to determine whether AERMOD could be used to predict SO2 concentrations when using meteorological forecast models as weather inputs. An historical analysis was performed using meteorological records from 2007 and AERMOD. The maximum emission limit was used in AERMOD. The resulting predicted concentrations were compared with concentrations reported at a monitoring site within the city. A forecasting analysis was also completed using two weather model forecasts (WRF and NAM) from March 2012 as meteorological input for AERMOD. Accurate daily SO2 emissions were obtained from each facility, and the corresponding rates were used in AERMOD. The resulting predicted concentrations were compared with monitored concentrations during the same time period. Overall, the historical analysis showed AERMOD's tendency to overestimate SO2 concentrations, particularly on days that also resulted in high monitored levels. The forecasting analysis resulted in favorable results with respect to the WRF weather forecast, but the NAM forecast created concentrations in AERMOD that were poorly correlated with monitored values. AERMOD still was likely to overestimate concentrations, but these overestimations were lessened due to more accurate emission information. Further research will be needed to further advance the prediction of pollution levels.

Orientadores: Ricardo Augusto Mazza, Edson Tomaz / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-20T02:12:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tadano_YaradeSouza_D.pdf: 4050458 bytes, checksum: f099a0b7346d14abcd5e32043374fc4b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: Atualmente os estudos de poluição atmosférica são divididos naqueles que simulam a dispersão dos poluentes e nos que avaliam o impacto da poluição na saúde, não sendo frequentes estudos que envolvem as duas áreas. O objetivo desta pesquisa é propor uma metodologia de união da dispersão com o impacto na saúde, utilizando ferramentas já consolidadas, no intuito de possibilitar avaliações de impacto em regiões que não possuem dados de monitoramento, e ainda a previsão de novos impactos. O estudo foi divido em três partes...Observação: O resumo, na íntegra, poderá ser visualizado no texto completo da tese digital / Abstract: Currently, air pollution studies are divided in studies that simulate pollutants dispersion and those assessing pollution impacts on health. Studies involving these two areas are not usual. Then, this research aims to present a methodology of union between dispersion and health impact, using tools already consolidated, in order to enable impact assessment in areas that do not have monitoring data and also the prediction of further impacts. This study was divided in three parts...Note: The complete abstract is available with the full electronic document / Doutorado / Termica e Fluidos / Doutor em Engenharia Mecânica