My dissertation consists of three essays that study the college premium in China and how it has been affected by China’s higher education expansion. In the first essay, I utilize the high education expansion as exogenous source to estimate the college premium. The rapidly changing access to college provides a rare opportunity to estimate a local treatment effect (LATE) of college education on earnings by utilizing the drastic increase in college admission rate in 1999. I also utilize the yearly admission rate as an instrumental variable for the endogenous college education. Using China Household Income Project 2013, the two IV estimates of college premium are 75.7 and 57.5 log points respectively. The second essay examines the trends of the college earnings premium by age groups from 1995 to 2013 in China. Specifically, based on China Household Income Projects, the college premium for the younger group (age 25-34) stagnated, while the college premium for the older group (age 45-54) increased substantially. I attribute the stagnation for the younger group to the fast-growing relative supply of younger college workers due to China’s higher education expansion. Holding the age cohort and survey year constant, a one unit increase in log relative size of college workers leads to 10.3 log points decrease in college premium. The third essay further explores the channel through which the cohort size affects the college premium. Using Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, I find that, for all survey years and age groups, the differential of the higher-skilled occupations share between college and non-college educated workers only explains a small part of college premium, 10%-30%. The part due to the higher-skilled occupational premium is negligible. Over 70% of the college premium is contributed by the college premium among the workers with lower-skilled occupations.

This dissertation consists of two chapters. In the first chapter, I explain changes in the life-cycle earnings profile for different birth cohorts. The second chapter assesses the quantitative importance of federal aid for college education in explaining college premium. In the first chapter, I document the life-cycle earnings profile for the 25-year- old college- and high school-educated white men in 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970. I find that later cohorts have flatter average life-cycle earnings profile. Using a version of the Ben-Porath model, I propose an explanation based on the composition effect. In my model, all individuals have a high school diploma and are differentiated by their ability. They must decide whether to work or go to a four-year college. There is a threshold ability above which individuals choose to attend college and below which they work. All cohorts face the same ability distribution and an exogenous sequence of wage rate per unit of human capital that grows at a constant rate. A higher initial level of wage rate increases college attainment implying that the average ability is lower for both college- and high school-educated individuals. From the Ben- Porath model, lower ability individuals have less steep increment in their earnings. This implies that the average college (and high school) life-cycle earnings profile for the 1970 cohort will be flatter than that of the 1940 cohort. My model is able to quantitatively explain 67 and 35 percent of the flattening in the average life-cycle earnings profile for college and high school-educated individuals, respectively. Since the late 1970s, there has been a strong increase in the college premium. While most papers focus on skill-biased technical change, the second chapter explores the role of federal aid as a possible source of inequality. I build a model where all individuals have a high-school diploma but are heterogeneous with respect to their innate abilities and initial human capital. They decide whether to attend college to accumulate more human capital before working, or to start working right away. The production function for human capital in college requires two inputs: human capital and goods. In this context, two mechanisms are key for the behavior of the college premium. First, federal aid makes it easier to afford the goods input in the human capital technology. This induces college students to accumulate more human capital and consequently, they have higher earnings. Second, as more individuals attend college due to rising income, the composition of college graduates changes: more low- ability individuals attend college, implying a decrease in average college earnings. A calibrated version of the model accounts fully for the rise in the college premium. Federal aid alone accounts for about 70 percent of the rise.

Titel: Leder attraktivitet till produktivitet? En studie av fastighetsmäklares attraktivitet och dess påverkan. Nivå: C-uppsats i ämnet företagsekonomi, inriktning marknadsföring. Författare: Kalle Gudmundsson och Olivia Lundbäck. Handledare: Jonas Kågström. Datum: 2019, maj. Syfte: Tidigare forskning indikerar att attraktiva personer är produktivare än oattraktiva personer. Syftet med denna studie är således att analysera om ”beauty premium” återfinns i säljande yrken och hur den påverkar produktivitet. Vi undersöker huruvida det existerar samband mellan produktivitet och attraktion hos svenska fastighetsmäklare. Vi tar också reda på om “beauty premium” effekterna skiljer sig åt mellan män och kvinnor samt hur en attraktiv och produktiv fastighetsmäklare ut. Metod: Studiens tillvägagångssätt är deduktivt eftersom litteratur och vetenskapliga artiklar använts och analyserats. Studien har ett syfte och frågeställningar som besvaras med en kvantitativ undersökning genom en enkätundersökning. Vidare analyseras resultatet med hjälp av SPSS och även korrelationsanalys, resultatet diskuteras och presenteras sedan dels genom tabeller skapade med SPSS. Resultat & slutsats: Vår studie resulterade inte i ett samband mellan hög attraktivitet och produktivitet. Vi har istället funnit att attraktivitetsbetyg nära snittet kan bidra till högre produktivitet, främst när det kommer till kvinnor. ”Beauty premium” effekterna skiljer sig åt när det kommer till män och kvinnor eftersom mycket attraktiva kvinnor istället påverkas av ”beauty penalty”. Det vi fann gemensamt mellan kvinnor och män är att attraktivitetsbetyg nära snittet har ökad produktivitet och vår slutsats pekar på att detta beror på ”beauty penalty” effekterna. Vi kom även fram till att attraktiva fastighetsmäklare har symmetri i hudstruktur samt ett generiskt utseende medan utseendet på en produktiv fastighetsmäklare är mycket varierat och vi såg inget tydligt samband förutom att de låg nära snittbetyget i attraktivitet. Uppsatsens bidrag: Denna studie är först med att undersöka attraktion kopplat till produktivitet när det kommer till fastighetsmäklare eller säljande yrken. Studiens bidrag är att ge en klarare bild och således kunskap om hur begreppen attraktion och produktivitet påverkar varandra och vilka andra variabler som spelar roll. Förslag till vidare forskning: Genom vår forskning har vi förstått att attraktion kan påverka produktivitet på många olika sätt. För att säkerhetsställa de resultat vi fått fram utifrån vår studie skulle det vara relevant att göra en liknande studie inom andra säljande yrken än fastighetsmäklare. För att skapa mer förståelse kring dessa begrepps samband, skulle en liknande studie kunna utföras inom andra branscher. Även forskning som utgår mer ifrån kön eftersom vårt resultat indikerar på att attraktion påverkar olika hos män och kvinnor. Till sist en studie som kan utföras på samma sätt som denna studie, men med mer fokus på ålder och dess påverkan.

聯合國以老年人口佔總人口數百分之七作為老人國分類標準的比率,依據我國六十五歲老年人口截至民國八十二年九月底已佔總人口7,02%,顯示我國已正式邁入高齡化國家。政府為了解決高齡化社會所將帶來的老人生理方面和經濟方面的問題,已於民國八十四年三月一日起,實施全民健康,保險制度,以提供老年人部份的醫療需求;並擬規劃開辦國民年金保險,以提供老年人基本經濟生活之保障。國民年金保險為一種長期性的社會保險,故制度是否能健全,就緊檕於整體性的長期財務規劃是否完備。綜觀目前已實施國民年金保險制度的先進國家,大多因先其前財務規劃未盡健全,以致年金財務會發生危機,也造成了政府財政上的負擔。因此在國民年金險制度研擬規劃之初,本文欲藉著模擬分析方法加以研究,以提供可行之財務制度及制度財務狀況。

In Taiwan area, the mortality rates at all ages have decreased since the end of World War II, and the life expectancy of people has increased from 62 in 1950's to 75 in 2000, which is an increase of 21%. The mortality improvement of the elderly (i.e. people ages 65 and over) is especially significant, which effects in the rapid population aging in Taiwan area. For example, the proportion of the elderly has increased from 6.14%in 1990 to 8.52% in 2000. On one hand, the prolonged life span for an individual means a longer period of retirement life and thus a larger retirement fund. On the other hand, a longer life for the government is equivalent to a more thorough social system for the elderly. Therefore, a reliable mortality rates projection is essential to both personal financial and social welfare planning. 　　In this study, we have two main objectives: First, we explore some frequent used models, such as Lee-Carter, multivariate regression and principal component methods. We use the data between 1950 to 1995 as the pilot data and 1996 to 2000 as the test data to judge which method has the smallest prediction error. In addition, based on computer simulation, we also evaluate the performance of the estimation methods for the Lee-Carter method. The second part (and the other objective) of this study is to explore the effect of mortality improvement on the pure premium of annuity insurance. In particular, we calculate the pure premium of the annuity under the best model acquired from the first part, and compare those under 1989 TSO and other life tables. We found that the pure premiums under current life tables are under estimated, which may cause the insolvency of insurance companies.

<p>The thesis consists of three self-contained essays on public policy in the macroeconomy.</p><p>“Government Policy in the Formal and Informal Sectors” quantitatively investigates the interaction between the firms' choice to operate in the formal or the informal sector and government policy on taxation and enforcement. Taxes, enforcement, and regulation are incorporated in a general equilibrium model of firms differing in their productivities. The model quantitatively accounts for the keys aspects in the data and allows me to back out country-specific enforcement levels. Some policy reforms are analyzed and the welfare gains can be fairly large.</p><p>“Determinants of Capital Intensive and R&D Intensive Foreign Direct Investment” studies the determinants of capital intensity and technology content of FDI. Using industry data on U.S. FDI abroad and data on many different host countries' institutional characteristics, we show that there is a differential response of FDI flows to investment climate according to the capital intensity of the industries receiving the investments. We find that better protection of property rights has a significant positive effect on R&D intensive capital flows. We find evidence that an increase in workers' bargaining power results in a reduction of both kinds of FDI. </p><p>“Ambiguity Aversion, the Equity Premium, and the Welfare Costs of Business Cycles” examines the relevance of consumers’ ambiguity aversion for asset prices and how consumption fluctuations influence consumer welfare. First, in a Mehra-Prescott-style endowment economy, we calibrate ambiguity aversion so that asset prices are consistent with data: a high return on equity and a low return on risk-free bonds. We then use this calibration to investigate how much consumers would be willing to pay to reduce endowment fluctuations to zero, thus delivering a Lucas-style welfare cost of fluctuations. These costs turn out to be very large: consumers are willing to pay over 10% of consumption in permanent terms.</p>

This paper adds to the understanding and transparency of equity pricing in emerging markets. Its novel contribution is that it empirically investigates the pricing of Country Risk in BRIC markets, using a two-factor intertemporal pricing model. Bridging the gap between academics and practitioners, this paper contributes to the debate as to whether or not it is justified to adjust discount rates for emerging market companies – as given by the CAPM – by including an unconditional country risk premium. In choosing between country risk proxies, the sovereign yield spread adjusted for relative equity volatility appears to supersede the classical sovereign yield spread in explaining return variations. Evidence is presented that country risk is priced in India and China indicating some type of market segmentation; in these markets, the addition of a country risk premium to the discount rate is justified. Moreover, the paper complements the market integration literature in that it is shown that the correlation between the change in country risk premium and the equity risk premium might show signs of market segmentation or market integration, rendering the pricing factor for country risk in specific countries significant or insignificant, respectively. © 2010 Soeriowardojo, G.T. All rights reserved.

The expected equity premium is an important parameter in many financial models, especially within portfolio optimization. A good forecast of the future equity premium is therefore of great interest. In this thesis we seek to forecast the equity premium, use it in portfolio optimization and then give evidence on how sensitive the results are to estimation errors and how the impact of these can be minimized. Linear prediction models are commonly used by practitioners to forecast the expected equity premium, this with mixed results. To only choose the model that performs the best in-sample for forecasting, does not take model uncertainty into account. Our approach is to still use linear prediction models, but also taking model uncertainty into consideration by applying Bayesian model averaging. The predictions are used in the optimization of a portfolio with risky assets to investigate how sensitive portfolio optimization is to estimation errors in the mean vector and covariance matrix. This is performed by using a Monte Carlo based heuristic called portfolio resampling. The results show that the predictive ability of linear models is not substantially improved by taking model uncertainty into consideration. This could mean that the main problem with linear models is not model uncertainty, but rather too low predictive ability. However, we find that our approach gives better forecasts than just using the historical average as an estimate. Furthermore, we find some predictive ability in the the GDP, the short term spread and the volatility for the five years to come. Portfolio resampling proves to be useful when the input parameters in a portfolio optimization problem is suffering from vast uncertainty.

This paper explores the factors that drive purchases of green power by private and public organizations. Using a cross-sectional analysis of participants in EPA’s Green Power Partnership, I explore whether state energy policies have motivated increased consumption of green power among these participating organizations. Additionally, I analyze economic and political variables by state to determine if certain factors contribute to an organization’s green power purchases. I find that state mandates on renewable energy production and lower premiums for green power lead to increased purchases of green power for members of the Green Power Partnership.

ABSTRACT Title The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Market Premium. Study of Sweden, Germany and Canada Authors Samira Allahyari Westlund Arad Tahmidi Dmytro Sheludchenko Supervisor Christos Papahristodoulou Key words Macroeconomic, market risk premium, GDP, inflation, money supply, primary net lending and net borrowing, regression analysis. Institution Mälardalen University School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology Box 883, SE-721 23 Västerås Sweden Course Bachelor Thesis in Economics (NAA 301), 15 ECTS Problem statement Risk premium value is of great interest to the financial world, since this value represents the extra return that investors receive considering the risk from investing in financial markets. The fluctuations in stock markets are believed to be influenced by changes in macroeconomic variables. Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables on and their relation to market risk premium in Canada, Sweden and Germany in the years 1992 – 2007. Method Multiple Regression Analysis, Ordinary Least squares (OLS) Result Forecasted Growth in real GDP is the only macroeconomic variable which has significant relation with market risk premium. The effect of money supply was found to be insignificant. Net lending and net borrowing had significant negative effect on market risk premium in Canada, whereas in Germany and Sweden the relationship was not significant.