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Inflation target was introduced in 2013 in Japan. The goal was to maintain price stability and sustainable inflation rate that is conducive to optimal consumption and investment decisions. However, Japanese inflation rate has been consistently below the target rate. We want to examine why the failure happens in such a big economy. This thesis focuses on inflation expectation as the main factor that leads to unanchored inflation. Inflation expectation can be distinguished into adaptive and rational expectation. To analyse inflation expectation, we regress inflation on four relevant variables: forecasted inflation, lagged inflation, economic slack and import inflation. Our goal is to identify the significance of forecasted inflation and lagged inflation, which are the main variables, to determine the characteristics of the two types of inflation expectation. This time-series analysis is on a monthly basis covering the period between 2013 and 2018. The results show that agents are near-rational rather than rational, meaning that they tend to overweigh the costs of inflation. Also, it is shown that they have minor but significant backward-looking tendency and believe that past inflation determines the current inflation. Hence, inflation expectation could give some useful insights into unanchored inflation.

本文旨在探討資產重估價之資訊內涵，以及其所處之資訊環境。資產重估價可讓財務報表的表達較趨近於現實價值，亦有稅負優勢，然不顯著。在理性預期環境中，投資者若以為公司現實價值為重要資訊，則其應會以極快速度將其所知現值反應於股價上。然文獻中顯示，我國上市公司在發布資產重估價資訊時，股價會具正面的異常反應，顯然與理性預期理論所預測者相矛盾。所以本研究結論，不是公司現值的資訊無用處，便是另有原因。本研究深入研究探討發現，股價異常行為大多可歸因於，資產重估價可厚實資本公積轉增資的基礎，而未來的資本公積轉增資具填權效果。此為投資者所以為的資產重估價利基之所在。然而，資本公積轉增資僅屬會計科目重分類，所以無具經濟實質意義。 　　於此，資產重估價資訊產生一個矛盾現象，若從投資者的未來現金衡量角度來看，資產重估價具經濟實質意義。若從公司經濟實質來看，資產重估價不具經濟實質意義。這個結果意味著投資者所支付因資產重估價所導致的股價高於公司經濟實質。本研究證明，在沒有資訊或資訊結構無效確實不知情投資者會因資產重估價支付高價，而將其財富移轉與知情投資者。因此股價的形成雖為均衡，然係不具效率的資源配置。 　　觀諸我國股市環境，缺乏專業分析師從事分析與解釋具專業化程度的財務報表，因此結果與沒有資訊或資訊結構無效率的條件相若。亦即與第三章所證明的結果相彷彿。在資產重估價資訊下，不知情投資者會支付高價並將高價的財富移轉與知情投資者。所以，我國股市中，股價雖為均衡的結果，然不具效率性。 　　要解決我國股市資訊環境不良，可創造一資訊蒐集成本為零的股市環境。亦即創造一競爭有效的專業財務分析產業，讓每個投資者分攤極低的財務專業分析與解釋的共同成本。如此便可消除如資產重估價效應的無效率解。此為本研究所稱「資產重估價資訊環境理論」。

鑑於我國現行承銷制度下新上市股票上市後的股價行為異於尋常（如蜜月期的問題），故本研究的目的在於以理性預期均衡理論及其他相關理論來探討新上市股票股價的問題，進而由理論中對資訊與股價之關係的推論來評議我國目前新上市股票承銷制度及股市的資訊環境。 　　新上市股票最重要的經濟特質在於上市前鮮為人知，其公司原始股東與上市後潛在股東間存在一個嚴重的資訊不對稱問題，證管會特以公開說明書為工具，藉此公開公司原始舊股東所持有之優越資訊，以解決此種資訊不對稱的情況。就理論上而言，一個合理的承銷制度應能令投資者「所付等於所值」，其上市後的第一個均衡價應等於承銷價，且其上市後的股價行為應與相關資訊呈系統化的關係。然而從實證的資料與分析結果顯示，我國新上市股票股價行為（包括承銷價）具異常性，根據理性預期均衡理論，這種異常股價行為歸因於股價與公開說明書上的財務資訊不具系統化的關係，亦即投資者間異質性的預期、投資者的變現性需求、及財務資訊之收集、分析與解釋成本過高（就個別投資人而言）所致的雜訊主導了這種異常的股價行為，故可謂目前的新上市股票承銷制度功能不彰，其合理性仍嫌不足。 　　現行新上市股票承銷制度下係規範公開說明書的財務報表需經會計師簽證，而其他資訊則需由承銷商以盡專業注意的方式來確認資訊之公開與忠實表達，若有不實表達處再課以法律責任。本研究以為這種資訊不對稱的解決設計，其運作之良窳尚有賴資訊環境的配合，故擬發展「資訊環境理論」，以說明強化財務資訊收集、分析與解釋的功能，或降低個別投資人對此類資訊的搜尋成本，可因而降低投資者異質性預期與變現性需求所產生的雜訊。其次本研究以為，為使公開財務資訊具品質保證與齊一性，並促使財務資訊環境更能有效運作，除可賦予法律責任外，藉由自律規範對承銷商之專業注意力與職業道德加以規範已屬必要。據此，更發展了「最低承銷品質理論」，透過此二理論的發展，以強化目前承銷制度的功能。

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:30:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alexandre Ripamonti.pdf: 1715355 bytes, checksum: bafe49730ceb2c3f261ef6a51ffb5f5c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-08-22 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / Rational valuation formula and time varying cointegration are the main thesis´ concepts, under the Muth´s (MUTH, 1961) rational expectations and theory of price movements as underlying theory, and also testing the null of time invariant error correction mechanisms and another one of inequality of fundamental value and share´s price. The data were obtained from Brazilian listed companies for 1986 to 2010 and also from 1871 to 2010 US stock market. The Johansen´s maximum likelihood and trace models, combined to Chebyshev time polynomials, as proposed by Bierens and Martins (2010) were used in order to test the null. The finds have shown first null rejection and no rejection for the second null. These finds are consistent to Bierens e Martins (BIERENS e MARTINS, 2010) and non-consistent with Muth (MUTH, 1961) / A presente tese aborda os conceitos de fórmula de valoração racional e cointegração variante no tempo para, sob o referencial da teoria das expectativas racionais e de movimentação de preços de Muth (MUTH, 1961), supor a variabilidade das taxas de retorno de ativos no mercado brasileiro, no período de 1986 a 2010, testando as hipóteses nulas de mecanismos de correção de erros dos vetores de cointegração constantes no tempo e de desigualdade entre valor fundamental e preço da ação. Foram coletados dados de preços e dividendos de ações componentes da carteira teórica do IBOVESPA de janeiro de 1986 a outubro de 2010. Além disso, também aplicamos os modelos propostos aos dados norte-americanos de preço e dividendos de 1871 a 2010, disponibilizados por Shiller. Os dados foram analisados através das técnicas de séries temporais e os coeficientes estimados através da técnica de máxima verossimilhança, especificamente com os modelos de cointegração de Johansen combinados com os polinômios temporais de Chebyshev, como proposto por Bierens e Martins (2010). Os resultados indicam a rejeição da hipótese nula de constância dos vetores de cointegração e, ainda, a não rejeição da hipótese nula de desigualdade entre valor fundamental e preço da ação para todas as séries temporais analisadas. Tais resultados são consistentes com os obtidos por Bierens e Martins (BIERENS e MARTINS, 2010) e não consistentes com a teoria das expectativas racionais de Muth (MUTH, 1961).

We investigate the trading strategy of the insider and propose two models to describe the insider’s behavior. Comparing with previous studies, we add insider stockholdings as a variable to the extension of information asymmetry. In our setting with information asymmetry between outside investors and the insiders, the insiders could obtain more inside information via increasing their stockholdings. When the insider with large stockholdings purchases more shares, outside investors would take this as a positive signal that the insiders regard the performance of the company in the future as optimistic. On the other hand, when the insider stockholdings is large, outsiders would worry that inside trading may become more. The insider would deliberate upon the quantities traded at period one and two, which have different impact in stock price. If the insider buys more stocks at period one, he could improve his information precision. However, if the insider buys large stocks, the market makers would take into account the insider’s function of information precision and thus the insider may impact on the stock price. Therefore the insider would evaluate market makers’ pricing rule. Since increasing stockholdings enhances precision information, intuitively, earlier stage the insider submits a large order. Nonetheless, our study shows that when the insider stockholding is extremely large, then the increasing of information precision is limited because the information precision is increasing with insider stockholding at a decreasing rate. Besides, when the insider stockholdings is large enough at period one, he would place a small order at period two.

在古典理性預期模型中，理性的投資者會蒐集並利用各種相關訊息來幫助其做最適的投資行為。然而市場價格也是訊息來源之一。在效率市場中，價格完全透露出訊息，則無人會有蒐集訊息的動機；若市場有干擾，價格無法顯露出所有相關訊息，私人訊息便有價值。因此，價格資訊性的高低，會影響到私人訊息對投資的重要性。其次，訊息若要能幫助投資者獲得套利利潤，仍須假設投資者必須能夠持有資產一直至資產價值實現為止。顯然的，短期投資者並不符合此一假設。我們相信在通常情況下，長期投資者會比短期投資者更有動機去成為消息靈通者，而且短期投資者對訊息處理的態度有許多特性迴異於古典模型的投資者，他們的存在對市場價格資訊性也會有相當程度的衝擊。本文基於上述想法，利用干擾不對稱訊息下之多期理性預期模型，假設市場中有長期與短期投資者，來探討影響價格資訊性之各項因素及短期投資者之行為特性。

在充滿不確定性之交易市場中，每位交易者會盡量利用所擁有之資訊，在市場有干擾（如，風險性資產供給之不確定性、個人偏好不同、個人面對之稅負環境不同等）之情形下，市場會顯露出部份私人訊息，故交易者亦會經由對價格和交易量之觀察習得訊息；擁有私人訊息之交易者稱為消息靈通者(Informed)，未擁有私人訊息而只能經由觀察價格而習(learn )得 訊息之交易者稱為消息不靈通者(Uninformed)，他們二者之差異在於他們是否願花成本或資源以購買訊息。本文係在干擾理性預期模型下，利用所設定之特殊效用函數--絕對風險規避效用函數及假設隨機變數為多元常態分配，探討市場有干擾情形下，在第一期有私人訊息而在第二期有公開訊息揭露之不對稱訊息模型中價格之資訊性，分別分析了公告訊息和私人訊 息之干擾程度、風險性資產供給之不確定及購買訊息人數對二期價格資訊性之影響。在所設定的模型有解下，本文利用這些影響因素對公告訊息和私人訊息在總合需求計劃部位 (Position)的彈性說明二期價格資訊性。同時文中亦探討購買訊息人數之內生決定，顯示了公告訊息之揭露會修正交易者之看法而減少私人蒐集訊息之誘因。