M.Com. (Econometrics) / This dissertation investigates the ability of different models to predict a recession in South Africa (SA) by choosing a best performing model based on the smallest prediction errors made by the models. One of the purposes of using econometric models is to predict a recession, with the goal to uncover the probability of a recession or real GDP growth rate as accurately as possible. Although linear and non-linear models prediction strength is frequently compared, none of the studies within SA compare the prediction ability of the four models used in this dissertation. The intent of this research is to ascertain the best prediction model for SA so as to advise policy makers on the soundest model to use if there is suspicion that SA could enter a recession in the future due to global and domestic uncertainty. This is done by comparing the prediction ability of the linear ARIMA, VAR and ARMV models’ and non-linear dynamic probit model; thereby contributing toward the standing literature. It is verified which model outperforms the others in predicting future real GDP growth by comparing the Mean-Square-Error (MSE), Mean-Absolute-Error (MAE) and RMSE percentage. The importance of predicting real GDP growth is accentuated so that policy makers are in the position to develop or apply policies that can stimulate growth in the economy, should a recession occur. By adding dynamics to the system, predictions are improved. The linear VAR model outperforms the other linear and non-linear model based on the RMSE, MAE and RMSE percentage.

A research report submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Sociology to the Faculty of Humanities,School of Social Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, 2019 / This study examines the responses of the South African trade union movement to the impacts of the Great Recession. The Great Recession is used to refer to the world economic crisis of 2008/9. Its impact on South Africa had enormous implications for the South African economy and its workers. The report reflects on and critiques how trade unions in South Africa responded to the impacts of the crisis on workers. The focus of the report is on the three trade union federations, COSATU, FEDUSA and NACTU, which were the main federations and ‘official’ representatives of organised labour at the time. The report studies and critically reflects on the theoretical perspectives of the trade unions and their policy and organisational responses to the impacts of the crisis. In its critical engagement with the trade unions’ perspectives and organisational responses, the report is theoretically grounded in a Marxist perspective. These perspectives and responses are studied against the historical background of the international and South African labour movement. The historical background is used to frame the purpose and role of the trade movement, which provides a basis to evaluate the trade union perspectives and responses to the Great Recession. The fundamental proposition of this report is that the trade unions are elementary organisations of labour whose purpose is to organise and defend interests of the workers and to regulate the terms of the relations of the producers with the employers. The historical context also allows comparative analysis of the trade union responses in the Great Recession with the reactions in the previous crises, and the changes that took place in the trade union politics. To understand the trade union politics and responses, the study focuses on the theoretical analysis, policy declarations, and political and organisational reports of the federations and, in some instances, those of their affiliates. Interviews, archival and participatory research also assisted in collecting data. The main conclusion of the report is that the trade union movement failed the workers. The workers have shown determination to fight, reflected in the number and militancy of their strikes. Unfortunately this will to fight was not matched by the political leadership of the trade union movement with political strategy, perspectives, and campaigns to harness this will to struggle and to unite various contingents of the working class into a mass movement that could defeat the neoliberal austerity measures and provide fighting and revolutionary alternatives, as workers have in previous crises internationally. / NG (2020)

M.Com. (Financial Management) / Working capital management (WCM) is considered critical for the success of all business and especially for small businesses. A recession (such as the one that took place in 2009) complicates the working capital management of small businesses. Working capital management of a sample of small and medium enterprises in South Africa were investigated to determine how they manage their working capital during challenging economic conditions. The impact of the 2009 economic recession on WCM was specifically investigated by following a quantitative descriptive research approach. The study sample consisted of 44 companies listed on the JSE Ltd AltX Index. A trend analysis was applied on WCM variables to determine significant changes overthe study period. Because variables were not normally distributed, the Mann Whitney U test was conducted to determine the statistical significance of the WCM mean ranks pre-, during and post-recession phases. The trend analysis of working capital management over the six-year study period exhibited a significant improvement in the working capital management level during the economic recession. This was largely attributed to delaying payment to creditors. The analysis of the WCM variables pre-, during and post-recession phases indicated that there were no significant changes in WCM that can be attributed to the 2009 economic recession. It was concluded that although there were changes in working capital management over the study period, the changes could not only be attributed to the 2009 recession.

M.Com. (Financial Economics) / The use of the yield curve spread in forecasting future recessions has become popular as it is a simple tool to use, due to the positive relationship between the yield curve spread and economic activity. The inversion or flattening of the yield curve spread usually signals a future recession. This has been the subject of several studies both internationally and in South Africa. This research provides an analysis of the yield curve spread’s ability to accurately forecast future recessions in South Africa through the use of three probit models. Furthermore, the yield curve spread’s ability to estimate is compared to that of share prices, using the JSE All Share Index. This research extends on studies by Khomo and Aziakpono (2006) and Clay and Keeton (2011), who used the static and dynamic probit models to forecast recessions in South Africa. In addition to these models, this research also makes use of the business cycle conditionally independent probit model for estimation. The findings suggest that share prices improve the yield curve spread’s ability to forecast recessions when estimating using the static probit model; however when comparing the results between the financial variables, the yield curve spread continues to produce the best forecast of recessions in South Africa. These results support those of Khomo and Aziakpono (2006) and Clay and Keeton (2011). Of the three probit models, the dynamic probit model estimate using the yield curve spread produced the most accurate forecast of recessions one quarter ahead. Therefore, the yield curve spread continues to provide the most accurate forecast of recessions in South Africa.

Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Technology: Business Administration, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2017. / This thesis was aimed at developing a model of growth through diversification, for shipping agencies in South Africa, under recessionary conditions. The study adopted a mixed methods approach, in seeking to develop a methodology to meet the aims of the research project; to develop a framework of diversification strategies for the shipping industry. The mixing of quantitative data and qualitative data not only enriched the findings but assisted with validation thereof, while achieving the research aims through the methodology adopted. The theoretical foundation of the study was on the theories of diversification, the theory of human behaviour and other economic principle theories, all of which were sampled among South African corporate executives in the shipping supply chain. Surveys were carried out using two structured research instruments in the form of questionnaires to collect quantitative data, with qualitative data collected through interviews, focus groups and observation. The data were analysed using triangulation to combine the results of the investigation. Statistical analysis was employed for the quantitative research and results illustrated in tables, combined with thematic analysis through qualitative research, to draw conclusions and recommendations on the study. The findings confirmed that there are opportunities for diversification into husbandry services, freight transportation, charterers’ services and other markets along the supply chain. Reasons for diversification among shipping firms include similar resource utilisation to service many functions, diversification to gain market leadership and poor performance in existing markets. The theory is not conclusive about whether related or unrelated diversification affects firm performance. The development of operation Phakisa, to focus on unlocking the economic potential of South Africa’s oceans, has not been addressed and needs more research into its feasibility and likely impact on the South African container shipping industry. There is need for management to mobilise resources, such that they can serve many functions and activities, and to build competences through human resources management. The study is relevant for the shipping supply chain executive, as it contributes to managerial decision-making, in terms of analysing their capability to create and apply knowledge in their competitive strategies. / D

This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.