As a technical writer I have come to see that the collaborative media landscape has started to change the way many B2C companies work with support information. It is companies producing software based consumer products that has taken the lead in this new way of approaching the customers. More and more companies in other product segments are starting to go in the same direction. But what happens to the technical writer when more and more customers are creating their own support information? The death of the technical writer has been proclaimed for several years. It is no wonder that one asks: What is the future role of the technical writer facing the challenges with collaborative media? That is also the research question for this thesis.To investigate this I have experimented with a method called scenario planning and scenario writing. In order to get a well-grounded base of trends to create the scenarios from I’ve concluded a rigorous empirical base. The following methods where used: In-depth interviews with practitioners in the technical writer field Content analysis of a support forum Email interviews with frequent forum users.It was clear that when implementing new media structures it also involves new challenges. These challenges could potentially also lead to new roles for the technical writer. The challenges I consider to be most important were; trust, transparency, motivation and information overload. To facilitate those needs and challenges roles like community manager, content curator and content strategist are needed.With those roles in mind I created four scenarios. Each with a different take on collaborative media (and one that actually ignored this emerge). The names of the scenarios are: The outcasts The insider matter Sharing is caring The third player

This thesis addresses the challenges and opportunities of sustainability driven companies during the time of crisis in 2020. The company Green City Solutions is used as a case study company in the field of air pollution. While sustainability orientation has been seen as a nice- to-have in the past, its perceived importance is projected to suffer in economic crises and recessions. With a scenario planning methodology, the goal was to understand the trends and drivers that dominate the current narrative, how they changed since the beginning of the crisis and how they are projected to evolve during and after the upcoming recession. The trends developed in this work show a clear trend towards more sustainability thinking also during the crisis, mainly seen in the German and EU’s stimulus packages, but also in an increased sensibility in the public and companies that has not been seen in any crisis before. The resulting future scenarios evolve around the discrepancy of knowledge and action in consumers as well as politics. The potential manifestations in the future are a purely rational consumer versus a consumer that is sustainably enlightened on the one side, and conservative versus transformative politics on the other side. The strategies for sustainability driven companies derived from the different future scenarios can be categorised into need creation and education, business model expansion and customer group expansion. The main takeaway is the need for clearer communication and education in the field of sustainability and especially clean air in a time that offers the sensibility for the topic in the public. / Denna uppsats tar upp utmaningar och möjligheter för hållbarhetsdrivna företag under krisperioden 2020. Företaget Green City Solutions används som ett fallstudieföretag som hanterar frågan om luftföroreningar i städerna. Medan hållbarhetsorientering har setts som en strategisk fördel, förväntas dess upplevda betydelse påverkas negativt av ekonomiska kriser och lågkonjunkturer. Huvudsyftet är att förstå det nuvarande förhållandet mellan hållbarhet och ekonomi och dess relativa betydelse i framtiden.  Med tillämpad scenarioplaneringsmetodik var målet att förstå de trender och drivkrafter som dominerar den nuvarande berättelsen, hur de förändrades sedan krisens början och hur de förväntas utvecklas under och efter den kommande lågkonjunkturen. Genom litteraturgranskning och expertintervjuer beskrivs de viktigaste politiska, ekonomiska och sociala trenderna och placeras i perspektivet av hållbarhet och luftföroreningar. Från detta härleds framtidsscenarier och entreprenörsstrategier.  Trenderna som utvecklats i detta arbete visar en tydlig trend mot mer hållbarhetstänkande även under krisen, främst i EU’s och andra medlemsstaters stimulanspaket, men också i en ökad känslighet hos allmänheten och företag som inte har setts tidigare. Polariteten i politiken mot mer protektionism och nationalism å ena sidan och progressiv politik å andra sidan oroar emellertid experterna och påverkar säkerheten i bedömningar av framtida politisk utveckling. Samtidigt verkar luftföroreningar i städer vara ett stort orosmoment, men av sekundär betydelse efter klimatförändringarna. Enligt experterna måste detta ändras genom utbildning och information, särskilt med tanke på sambandet mellan hälsa och ren luft.  De resulterande framtidsscenarierna utvecklas kring skillnaden mellan kunskap och handling hos konsumenter såväl som i politiken. De potentiella yttringarna för detta i framtiden är en rent rationell konsument kontra en konsument som är hållbarhetsupplyst, och konservativ kontra transformativ politik.  Strategierna för hållbarhetsdrivna företag som härrör från olika framtidsscenarier kan kategoriseras i behovsskapande och utbildning, affärsmodellutvidgning och kundgruppsexpansion. Huvudbudskapet är behovet av tydligare kommunikation och utbildning inom hållbarhetsområdet och särskilt ren luft. Detta är lägligt givet allmänhetens mottaglighet för ämnet just nu. Målet är att främja en hållbarhetsupplysning hos allmänheten som utlöser transformativa förändringar i politik och ekonomi. Hållbarhetsdrivna företag har chansen att vara en del av utvecklingen genom att samarbeta med andra stora intressenter som akademin och politik för att skapa det nödvändiga informationsflödet.

Thesis (MScAgric (Agricultural Economics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The South African table grape industry has evolved significantly in the last two decades. Ever improving supply chain technologies, post-harvest technology innovation, and more efficient production inputs have all stimulated the production of table grapes in all five South African production regions. While the industry in general is well developed, from the late 1990s the competitiveness status of the South African table grape industry has been negative as far as international competitiveness is rated. Prior to this, from 1961 to 1998, the industry had recorded positive trends in competitiveness. The recent decline, from as early as the 2000s, in the competitiveness of the industry can be attributed to rising competition from alternate Southern Hemisphere suppliers, increasing production costs and export costs, as well as inadequate market diversification. As a result of its negative competitiveness status, the table grape industry wants to diversify its export markets in order to improve and protect the industry‟s position in the global table grape markets. The objective of this study is to investigate the viability of specific export market diversification scenarios. The aim is to evaluate the potential impact on the table grape industry if export volumes were to be relocated from traditional to emerging markets, and the potential risk if the industry were to maintain the current market distribution. The study developed a deterministic farm-level model based on accounting principles as a tool for simulating and analysing the impact of changes in markets on the financial viability of farms under different scenarios. A scenario development process is adopted in this study as it offers the possibility of integrating various kinds of data in a consistent manner, and it can represent the views and expectations of several stakeholders simultaneously. Three scenarios were developed: (i) Scenario 1 presents the continuation of current market distributions (i.e. 85% of South African exports are marketed in Europe and another 15% are distributed to other global markets); (ii) Scenario 2A depicts a situation where export volumes are slowly redistributed to emerging markets; and (iii) Scenario 2B presents a situation where export volumes are rapidly redistributed to emerging markets. The targets for both Scenarios 2A and 2B are to market 60% of South African exports to Europe and 40% to other global markets. Scenarios 2A and 2B are driven by similar factors, including improving industry information, globalisation, increasing competition, and table grape prices An analysis of factors shaping the table grape export sector shows that the industry can no longer afford to send large export quantities predominantly to its traditional markets, due to increasing competition and diminishing market prices. Furthermore, the analysis shows that continuing with the current market diversification will have a negative impact on the industry, as farm returns, employment and farm units will decline under this scenario. The results suggest that the industry would be better off if export volumes were redistributed away from Europe to other markets. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Gedurende die laaste twee dekades het die Suid Afrikaanse Tafeldruif Industrie met rasse skrede vooruitgegaan. Dit kan grootliks toegeskryf word aan verbeterde tegnologiese ontwikkeling en innovasie in die voorsieningsketting en na-oes tegnologie arenas, asook aan meer doeltreffende produksie insette wat produksie toenames in al vyf die Suid Afrikaanse produksie areas gestimuleer het. Alhoewel die industrie relatief goed ontwikkeld was sedert sy ontstaan, was die kompeterende status daarvan meestal negatief sedert die 1990‟s, gemeet aan internasionale kompetisie. Daar was egter tussen 1961 en 1998 ook positiewe mededinging tendense. Die onlangse verlaagde vlakke van mededingendheid van die industrie (veral sedert die vroeë 2000‟s) kan toegeskryf word aan verhoogde kompetisie vanaf ander Suidelike Halfrond verskaffers, verhoogde produksie- en uitvoerkoste, asook aan onvoldoende mark diversifisering. As gevolg van die negatiewe mededingendheid status, wil die tafeldruif industrie sy uitvoer markte diversifiseer om te verseker dat die industrie sy posisie in die globale tafeldruif mark kan beskerm. Die doel van hierdie studie is dus om die lewensvatbaarheid van spesifieke uitvoer mark diversifisering scenario‟s te ondersoek. Daarmee saam is die potensiële impak op die industrie ook bepaal vir (a) „n hoë persentasie uitvoer volumes wat verskuif vanaf tradisionele markte na ontluikende market, of (b) wat die risiko sal wees indien die huidige markverspreiding vlakke behou word. Die studie ontwikkel „n deterministiese plaasvlak model, gebaseer op rekeningkundige beginsels, om as hulpmiddel te dien vir die simulering en analise van die impak van verandering van teikenmarkte op die fnansiële lewensvatbaarheid van plase onder verskillende omstandighede. „n Scenario intwikkelings proses word in hierdie studie aangeneem aangesien dit toelaat vir die integrasie van verskillende tipes data op „n eenvormige wyse, terwyl dit ook die sieninge en verwagtinge van verskeie rolspelers terselfdertyd kan verteenwoordig. Drie scenario‟s word ontwikkel naamlik (i) Scenario 1: Dit verteenwoordig die huidige mark verspreiding (85% van Suid Afrikaanse uitvoere word in Europa bemark terwyl 15% versprei word na ander globale markte); (ii) Scenario 2A: Hier word die situasie uitgebeeld indien uitvoer volumes stadig herverdeel word na ontluikende markte; en (iii) Scenario 2B: Hier word die situasie uitgebeeld indien uitvoer volumes vinnig herverdeel word na ontluikende markte. Die teikens vir beide Scenario 2A en 2B is om 60% van die Suid Afrikaanse uitvoere in Europa te bemark en 40% in ander globale markte. Beide scenario‟s word deur dieselfde faktore gestu wat onder andere verbeterde industrie inligting, globalisering, verhoogde kompetisie en produk pryse insluit. „n Ontleding van die vormende faktore van die tafeldruif uitvoer sektor toon dat die industrie nie langer kan bekostig om hoë uitvoer volumes na die tradisionele markte te stuur nie, as gevolg van sterker kompetisie en krimpende markpryse. Die ontleding toon ook verder dat, indien voortgegaan word met die huidige mark diversifiserings model, die industrie negatief beïnvloed sal word in terme van verlaagde plaas inkomste, werkverskaffing en die aantal boerdery eenhede. Die uitslae dui dus daarop dat die industrie beter daaraan toe sal wees indien die huidige uitvoer volumes herverdeel kan word na ander (nie-Europese) markte.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T16:44:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Adalberto Tacini.pdf: 1675245 bytes, checksum: 373bffcf439d27b397d44d902baba0e3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-09 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The increased complexity in the economic and financial environment all over the world rose the uncertainty level for financial institutions and the National Financial System (SFN). In this context, the Central Bank (Banco Central do Brasil - BCB), responsible for authorizing, regulating and intervening in the banking market, along with other countries, requires that banks in Brazil prepare a management Strategy Risk within the capital managing process. This work aims to analyze the contribution of a management strategy technique, scenario planning, in the management of the risks. It is a relevant study because of bank strategic role in the economy and the importance of strategy management risks for SFN. This research has a qualitative and exploratory nature, uses case study methodology and aims the comprehension of an organizational phenomenal. It is supported by Administrational Paradigms and by Gareth Morgan s model. It also utilizes a historical analysis on the SFN and the Brazilian Banking Market. As a result, we observe that planning for scenarios, among other forms, contributes with the risk management strategy as (i) makes the decision-making process more qualified by considering different futures alternatives, (ii) makes the perception of risk inherent in decisions made clearer when organizing and delimit the uncertainties of the business environment and (iii) benefits to senior management by anticipation of possible significant variations in the business environment / O aumento da complexidade no ambiente econômico e financeiro em todo o mundo proporcionou elevação nos níveis de incertezas aos quais estão sujeitas as instituições financeiras e todo o Sistema Financeiro Nacional (SFN). Nesse contexto, o Banco Central brasileiro, responsável por normatizar, autorizar, fiscalizar e intervir no mercado bancário, em linha com autoridades monetárias de outros países, passa a exigir que os bancos no Brasil realizem gerenciamento de Risco de Estratégia, dentro de um processo de gerenciamento de capital. Tendo em vista esse cenário, o presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a contribuição de uma técnica de gestão da estratégia, o planejamento por cenários, no gerenciamento desse risco nos bancos no Brasil, justificando-se, dentre outros motivos, pela função estratégica exercida pelos bancos na economia do país e pela relevância do gerenciamento de riscos de estratégia para o SFN. Esta pesquisa, de natureza qualitativa e exploratória, utiliza-se da metodologia estudo de caso visando o entendimento de um fenômeno social organizacional, apoiado pela análise dos fundamentos teóricos acerca dos Paradigmas da Administração e do modelo paradigmático de Gareth Morgan, da Gestão de Estratégia, do Planejamento por Cenários, do Risco de Estratégia, além de uma análise histórica acerca do SFN e do Mercado Bancário brasileiro. Como resultado, observa-se que o planejamento por cenários, dentre outras formas, contribui com o gerenciamento de risco de estratégia à medida que (i) torna o processo de decisão mais qualificado por considerar alternativas de futuros diferentes, (ii) torna a percepção de risco inerente às decisões tomadas mais clara ao organizar e delimitar as incertezas do ambiente de negócios e (iii) beneficia a alta administração pela antecipação a possíveis variações significativas no ambiente de negócios

Abstract Water is the essential resource of people for their livelihood and is the foundation for the economy to develop unceasingly. Based on the trend of economic growth, population growth, and the improvement of the quality of life, the demand for water is expected to continuously increase. When the demand for water resources is continuing to increase, burdens are added to the environment and ecology. The severe challenge for human beings is how to promote the sustainable development of economy, society, an ecological environment, and to achieve sustainable use of water resources. The Penghu Island has endured water scarcity for a long time. The government also takes great pains over the water resource problem. The purpose of this study is to establish indicators of a framework for the sustainable development of water resources in Penghu County. This can be used to construct a model of the system dynamics to conduct simulations of various scenarios. After that, we can understand the current situation and problems of the subject of water resources and sustainable development in Penghu County to provide suggestions for the government to make decisions. First, literature should be collected that relates to the indicators of a sustainable development system of water resources, adopting the D-S-R (Driving forces-State-Response¡^indicator framework proposed by the United Nations. We should draw up a water resource sustainable development indicators system which suits the characteristic of the native environment in Penghu County initially, estimating by using Delphi and AHP. Moreover, we will construct a model of the system dynamics and proceed to do the simulation of scenarios. There are 43 indicators in this study which built up the D-S-R water resources sustainable development indicator framework in Penghu County. They belong to 8 different assessment categories, which include watershed conservation and management, groundwater conservation and management, diverse use and development of water resources, allocation and management of water resources, drought and flood mitigation, promotion of water conservation measures, technology research and develop of water resources, personnel training and education about cherishing water resources. Among them, there are 14 driving force indicators, 14 state indicators, and 15 response indicators. According to the dynamic system model constructed in this research, the continuous increase of the population and number of tourists represent the social and economic development of the driving force aspect. When the groundwater is overdrawn, this causes the seawater to invade and it becomes salty. The State aspect is and the people's health and welfare. In the Response aspect, there are 4 strategies regarding the management scenarios, including the control of overdrawn groundwater, building a seawater desalination factory, rational water price adjustment, and the promotion of water conservation measures are drafted. According to the simulation and scenarios, some results were found, such as the rational water price adjustment and promotion of water conservation measures have a limited effect upon slowing down the groundwater overdraw because of the severe water resource shortage in Penghu County. The control of overdrawn groundwater can appropriately decelerate the groundwater being drawn excessively, but can't retard the rise in demand for water. Building a seawater desalination factory can satisfy the continuous rise in demand for water, and have the greatest effect on decelerating the aggravation of the water resource ecology and the quality of the water environment. The strategy of improving the shortage of water resources usually can be executed from two directions: water resources development and economization. This study found that the key points to overcome in order to achieve the sustainable development of water resources in Penghu County are mainly: the destruction of the ecological environment because of deep groundwater overdraw, and the negative influence of setting up a seawater desalination factory on marine ecology resources. The relation is very clear that deep groundwater overdraw causes seawater invasion and the result is salty water. But it's not clear whether the waste water produced from the seawater desalination factory will effect the rich marine resources of Penghu County. The residents, mainly fishermen, still have doubts about building a seawater desalination factory. There should be more thorough analysis and research.

Current and potential future trends in the burden of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut and Iqaluit, Nunavut, Canada were investigated in the context of climate change. A concurrent mixed methods design was used in which quantitative and qualitative data were concurrently collected and analyzed and then combined to better understand the burden of AGI. In-depth interviews with government stakeholders (n=11), PhotoVoice workshops (n=11), and two community surveys (n=185) were conducted to identify and characterize climate-sensitive health priorities in the Nunatsiavut region. Then, four cross-sectional retrospective surveys in Rigolet (two community censuses, n=462) and Iqaluit (two surveys with randomly selected households, n=1,055), as well as in-depth interviews with cases (n=9) were conducted to examine the incidence, risk factors, and healthcare seeking behavior of AGI. Finally, a scenario planning approach was used to identify and rank trends and conditions driving changes in future waterborne disease in Nunatsiavut. This involved in-depth interviews with national and international experts (n=20) and community focus group discussions (n=29). Climate-sensitive health priorities identified in Nunatsiavut included food security, water security, mental health, new hazards and safety concerns, and health services and delivery. The annual estimated incidence of self-reported AGI ranged from 2.9-3.9 cases/person/year in Rigolet and Iqaluit, which are the highest published estimates globally. Significant risk factors for AGI included food, water, animal exposure, and socio-economic conditions; while community interviewees perceived hygiene, retail food, tap water, boil water advisories, and personal stress to be important risk factors. The proportion of AGI cases seeking medical services ranged from 3-19%, which are among the lowest published rates globally. In the scenario planning process, critical drivers of AGI included ‘extreme weather events’; ‘technology development’; and ‘global interest in Northern resources’. These results provided information about AGI-related exposures and sensitivities to climate change, which can be used to provide information for public health planning, prioritization, and programming in Inuit regions. The improved understanding of AGI in two Canadian Aboriginal communities sheds light on the need to better understand the burden in sub-sets of the population that might be at higher risk, including Aboriginal populations in the context of climate change. / Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarship (CIHR); Public Health Agency of Canada; IRIACC initiative (CIHR, NSERC, SSHRC, IDRC); Nasivvik Centre for Inuit Health and Changing Environments

This study is an exploration of a change management intervention tool described here as the Hypothetical'. This tool is not described in organisation literature, but many of its functions and features can be found in theories relating to, for example, organisational communication, change management, leadership and team dynamics. The Hypothetical does, however, appear as a discussion forum in the popular media. In the 1980s and 1990s, the high profile television program, Hypotheticals, hosted by Geoffrey Robertson QC, dramatised decision making processes, and teased out some of the moral dilemmas inherent in social and political problems, utilising high profile panelists from the social, political and business elites. In the 1990s, the Hypothetical made a transition from the television screen to the management meeting room and the executive suite. The researcher of this study has similarly used the Hypothetical in his capacity as a communications consultant for a number of public and private client organisations. With this background, this study was undertaken to explore the Hypothetical and to identify those functions and features that define its appropriateness as an intervention for organisational communication and change. The findings from this study are founded on two aspects a review of relevant organisation literature, and data from the presentation of a specific Hypothetical intervention to the public organisation Centrelink Queensland. The Hypothetical tool, as identified in this study, is a one-off, 90 minute performance involving a facilitator, audience, and members of a panel who represent the organisation in which semi-fictitious storylines are meant to symbolise elements in the cultural life of the organisation. The study also identifies a Hypothetical process in which research methods that are applied, before and after the intervention performance, help to identify the functions and features of the intervention. The features of the Hypothetical, as an intervention are viewed through the lens of Goffman's 1959) classic theoretical framework of symbolic interactionism, where the organisation is conceptualised as 'theatre', and the motivations and actions of its members are interpreted through the symbolism of theatrical performance and interaction. The study also draws on symbolic convergence theory to explain what happens inside an organisation through the language, conflicts and shared cultural experiences of its members. The Centrelink Hypothetical in this study reflects aspects of the shared organisational culture, and presents its fictitious storylines in the context of dialogues between its panelists. The panelists are representatives of their organisation and are heard reflecting the values of that organisation's culture. Consequently, the analysis of text through the Hypothetical transcript the deciphering of shared narratives, mindsets, motivations and visions of the future, and so forth forms a significant aspect of the study for conceptualising Centrelink organisational culture, and for identifying how problems of communication and change have become embedded in that culture. More specifically, it is through the Centrelink Hypothetical that this study seeks to identify the functions of the Hypothetical and to determine how they may contribute solutions to Centrelink's management problems. The literature consulted for this study reveals that the Hypothetical is closely allied, as an intervention process, with the relatively new management practice of scenario planning. It scenario planning that attempts to build a generative learning capability within organisations a continuously looping process of deep learning that takes place within each organisation's unique strategic conversation. This study draws on scenario planing to identify similar performance features within the Hypothetical process stimulating the organisation to be responsive to, and to embrace, change; finding appropriate methods of communication; identifying and modifying mental models. This study also highlights a significant difference between the scenario planning process and the Hypothetical. Emerging literature in management psychology asserts the importance of the emotionally intelligent team, which demonstrates its social skills and empathy. However, the driving force behind scenario planning is 'the business idea', or the organisation's mental model and what drives it, and there is little or no attention paid to the importance of emotional capabilities in the scenario planning literature. Findings from the Centrelink case demonstrate that a significant dimension of the Hypothetical experience is the impact of symbolically convergent scripted roles and the related capacity to utilise emotional intelligence. Consequently, this study recommends that suitable emotional frameworks be employed throughout the Hypothetical process to help discern appropriate members' behaviours and suggest how the combination of such behaviours may be used to enhance the organisation's future generative learning process.

Three major external events (Brexit, Covid-19 and the present war in Ukraine) have in the last two years shaken the global market which has resulted in disturbances within the production- and transport chains, raised prices and bottleneck effects in the supply chain. The businesses and organizations have since before these crises had a raised interest for scenario planning in order to control future chaos and uncertainties. To beable to control both certainties and uncertainties, has shown to result in business becoming market leaders when crisis hits. Based on these principles the study intends to explain, through three semi structured interviews, how three Swedish exporting businesses and importers (Astrazeneca, SCA and Billerud Korsnäs) manage external events. Based on empirical data the study intends to answer its issue: How are major changesin the business environment handled by import- and export companiesoperating in the transport of forest goods and chemical goods? Subsequently, the empirical data collected from the respondents has been analyzed and set against existing, relevant theoretical points of the study. One conclusion the thesis states from the study is that proactive scenario planning based on external signals creates conditions for organizations' strategic renewal in the import and export market. The thesis also states that experience from previous external events contribute knowledge to organizations' scenario planning and management of future external events. The ability to handle external signals in order to control operations moreproactively can vary between companies, which this study does not handle. However, the study states that it would have been of interest for future research. / Inom de senaste två åren har tre större omvärldshändelser (Brexit, Covid-19 och nutida kriget i Ukraina) skakat om den globala marknaden, vilket har resulterat i störningar i produktions- och transportkedjorna, förhöjda priser och trång sektioner. Scenarioplanering har sedan innan dessa kriser fått ett ökat intresse hos företagen i förebyggande syfte att hantera kaos och osäkerheter. Konsten att hantera osäkerheter i både det förutsedda och oförutsedda, samt vara mottaglig för förändringar, kan resultera i att företagligger i framkant på marknaden när kriser uppstår. Utifrån dessa utgångspunkter ämnar denna studie förklara hur tre svenska export- och importföretag (AstraZeneca, SCA och Billerud Korsnäs) hanterar omvärldshändelser. Genom totalt tre semistrukturerade intervjuer av de tre respondenterna ämnar studien besvara frågeställningen: Hur hanterasstörre omvärldsförändringar av tre svenska import- och exportföretag inomtransport av skogsvaror och kemivaror? Sedermera har den insamlade empirin från respondenterna analyserat och ställts mot befintliga, relevanta teoretiska utgångspunkter. En slutsatsuppsatsen tar från studien är att en proaktiv scenarioplanering baserad på omvärldssignaler skapar förutsättningar för organisationers strategiska förnyelse inom import- och exportmarknaden. Men även att erfarenheter från tidigare omvärldshändelser bidrar med kunskap till organisationers scenarioplanering och hantering av framtida omvärldshändelser. Företagens förmåga att hantera omvärldssignaler i syfte att styra verksamheten mer proaktivt kan variera mellan företag, vilket denna studie inte hanterar. Däremot framför studien att det hade varit ett intressant utgångsläge inför framtida forskning.

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This thesis project analyses the conflict between Meta and Apple, specifically focusing on their privacy policies and the subsequent implications for their business models and innovation strategies. This study aims to provide valuable insights into the main topics of speculation surrounding this conflict and address its objectives. By analyzing secondary sources, the project identifies the main themes discussed in relation to the conflict. Privacy, business, advertisement, and data emerged as the most frequently mentioned and speculated topics. Based on the effects of Apple's privacy policy changes, this project developed three plausible scenarios for Meta's future. These scenarios explored the impact of the climate crisis, the influence of Generation Z, and advancements in AI technology. Each scenario presented unique challenges and opportunities for Meta, emphasizing the importance of business model elements and innovation theory in navigating changing market conditions and consumer preferences. This project provides insights into the conflict between Meta and Apple, shedding light on the main topics of speculation and their implications for business models and innovation. Contributing with this to the discussion about privacy, business models, and innovation in the tech industry / Detta projekt analyserar konflikten mellan Meta och Apple med fokus på deras integritetspolicyer och de påföljande konsekvenserna för deras affärsmodeller och innovationsstrategier. Genom att genomföra en omfattande undersökning och dataanalys syftar denna studie till att ge värdefulla insikter i de huvudsakliga spekulationerna kring denna konflikt och att uppfylla sina mål. Genom att analysera sekundära källor identifierar projektet de huvudsakliga teman som diskuteras i samband med konflikten. Integritet, affärer, annonsering och data framträdde som de mest frekvent nämnda och spekulerade ämnena. Baserat på effekterna av Apples ändringar i integritetspolicyn utvecklade detta projekt tre möjliga scenarier för Metas framtid. Dessa scenarier undersökte klimatkrisens påverkan, inflytandet från Generation Z och framstegen inom AI-teknologi. Varje scenario presenterade unika utmaningar och möjligheter för Meta och betonade vikten av affärsmodellens komponenter och innovations teori för att navigera i föränderliga marknadsförhållanden och konsumentpreferenser. Detta projekt ger insikter i konflikten mellan Meta och Apple, belyser de huvudsakliga spekulationernas ämnen och deras konsekvenser för affärsmodeller och innovation. Det bidrar till diskussionen om integritet, affärsmodeller och innovation inom techindustrin.