Dans les systèmes d'informations, les outils de détection produisent en continu un grand nombre d'alertes.Des outils de corrélation permettent de réduire le nombre d'alertes et de synthétiser au sein de méta-alertes les informations importantes pour les administrateurs.Cependant, la complexité des règles de corrélation rend difficile leur écriture et leur maintenance.Cette thèse propose par conséquent une méthode pour générer des règles de corrélation de manière semi-automatique à partir d’un scénario d’attaque exprimé dans un langage de niveau d'abstraction élevé.La méthode repose sur la construction et l'utilisation d’une base de connaissances contenant une modélisation des éléments essentiels du système d’information (par exemple les nœuds et le déploiement des outils de détection). Le procédé de génération des règles de corrélation est composé de différentes étapes qui permettent de transformer progressivement un arbre d'attaque en règles de corrélation.Nous avons évalué ce travail en deux temps. D'une part, nous avons déroulé la méthode dans le cadre d'un cas d'utilisation mettant en jeu un réseau représentatif d'un système d'une petite entreprise.D'autre part, nous avons mesuré l'influence de fautes touchant la base de connaissances sur les règles de corrélation générées et sur la qualité de la détection. / Information systems produce continuously a large amount of messages and alerts. In order to manage this amount of data, correlation system are introduced to reduce the alerts number and produce high-level meta-alerts with relevant information for the administrators. However, it is usually difficult to write complete and correct correlation rules and to maintain them. This thesis describes a method to create correlation rules from an attack scenario specified in a high-level language. This method relies on a specific knowledge base that includes relevant information on the system such as nodes or the deployment of sensor. This process is composed of different steps that iteratively transform an attack tree into a correlation rule. The assessment of this work is divided in two aspects. First, we apply the method int the context of a use-case involving a small business system. The second aspect covers the influence of a faulty knowledge base on the generated rules and on the detection.

The thesis is composed of three main parts. The first part is theoretical and I deal here with economic relationships between macroeconomic magnitudes. Second part dedicated to the econometric theory of prognosis follows, in which I deal with different types of prognoses and prediction methods used at present. In the third, practical, part my intended aim is to create the best possible models of relations between fundamental macroeconomic magnitudes, using real Czech economy data, and to make simulation predictions of these magnitudes based on acquired models while utilising scenario analysis. First, I deal with choice of MSE and VAR models. Then follows the estimate of particular models and validation of prognostic capabilities of particular models for static and dynamic simulation. I conclude with elaboration of macroeconomic magnitudes prognosis while using scenario analysis.

This thesis addresses the principles and technologies of Big Data and their usage in the banking environment. Its objective is to find business application scenarios for Big Data for purposes of delivering added value for the bank. Finding the scenarios have been achieved by studying literature and consultation with experts, they were also subsequently modeled by the author. Possibilities of application of these scenarios in the banking busi-ness environment were subsequently verified by the survey, which interviewed profession-als on issues relating to the found business scenarios. The thesis first explains the basic con-cepts and approaches of Big Data, the status of this technology compared to traditional technologies and issues of integration into the banking environment. After this theoretical beginning the business scenarios are found and modeled followed by the exploration and evaluation. Selected business scenarios are further verified for the purpose of determining the suitability or unsuitability for implementation using technologies and principles of Big Data. The contribution of this work is to find a real use of Big Data in banking, where most of the materials on this topic is very general and vague. This thesis verifies two business scenarios that can big a bank institution high added value if they are implemented with Big Data platform.

Positioning is a key element of brand's strategic management and it is often a driver for success on given market. In every brand's life cycle there can be a moment, where current positioning simply doesn't work anymore, so there is need to reposition the brand to modify the current one or develop a new one. The main goal of this master thesis is to give readers full detail of the whole process of repositioning and to create ideal scenario for this process in FMCG market. I describe all most important parts of the brand and its strategic management related to positioning in the theoretical part. In the practical part I use a method of case study of Birell brand to describe real example of repositioning. This case study also includes reasons and consequences of the repositioning. In conclusion of the thesis, there is compiled ideal scenario of the whole process, that can serve as a basis for further research or as a instruction for future projects.

If new build nuclear reactors are built in the UK they will provide a large low carbon thermal resource that can be recovered for heating services through heat networks (district heating). There are however questions about the geographic location of nuclear sites relative to heating demand and public/user interpretations of a potentially controversial technology to consider. This thesis includes three research themes that explore these issues. The first is an assessment of potential non-technical barriers to nuclear heat network development. The second is a focus group approach to studying local resident responses to nuclear heat network technology both as potential users, and as public groups. The third theme considers the technical potential for a heat network connecting the Hartlepool nuclear site to local heating demand centres. The research finds that there is potential for nuclear heat networks to take 70,000 existing users off the natural gas in the Hartlepool area. Following series of expert interviews it finds no non-technical barriers that would be unique to nuclear heat networks as opposed to other heat network types. It also suggests that the technology could be acceptable to local residents if it is framed as a local resource that benefits the local area. These findings indicate that there could be similar potential at Heysham and Oldbury nuclear sites.

The master thesis is dealing with the contemporary issues of operational risk management in financial institutions. Author sets a theoretical basis and legal background of the topic and describes the contemporary practices of managing the operational risk. Author focuses on the scenario analysis as a specific method which is described and evaluated. Scenario analysis is applied on the rogue trading risk. In the thesis there is created a model institution on which author applies the operational risk theory using best practices and expert opinions. The model situation provides the analysis of the processes of the financial institution and choose the suitable measures in order to defend against the risk. The author also analyses the past cases of rogue trading which helps to understand the prevention and the historical significance of the operational risk.

This thesis is composed of free main chapters. The first two chapters of is a theoretical part. The first chapter is devoted to the theory of economic policy and analysis of economic indicators. The second chapter concerns the econometric theory and describes vector autoregression models theory and econometric forecasting. In the third, practical part, aims to find out with the help of real data of the Czech economy impacts of alternative VAT rates on selected indicators of the czech economy, these indicators are gross domestic product, unemployment rate and consumer price index. As a tool to determine the impact of using models and vector autoregression method scenarios.

This diploma thesis presents results of analysis of monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic employing the vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The responsible authority for monetary policy is Czech National Bank that has been using the inflation targeting regime to conduct its monetary policy since 1998. The inflation rate changes, i.e. the changes in repo rate represent a monetary tool for steering actual inflation rate towards the projected or "target" inflation rate. The linear correlation between 2 weeks repo rate and 1 month PRIBOR rate is confirmed. The transmission mechanism is examined within the VAR framework and the relationships between the 1 month PRIBOR rate, gross domestic product and inflation rate are studied. The VAR model including 1 lag is considered as the best performing model. The relationships among variables are analysed by related approaches -- Granger causality, impulse response functions and cointegration. The ability of model to create forecasts is assessed and the ex ante forecasts are produced for one-year horizon. The effects of alternative monetary policies are the subject of scenario analysis.

As history is focused on the past and sociology deals with the present, shouldn't be international relations oriented towards the future? On the concrete example of Mali crisis are demonstrated the advantages of the scenario building method, which enhances the relevance of theories of international relations. Northern Mali has been traditionally isolated geographically, politically and economically. Since the beginning of 2012, fights broke out again. The rising threat of Islamist groups was confirmed in the Sahel. This thesis primarily deals with the potential evolution of the Malian crisis, which has been caused by a complex set of interactions. The analysis of events preceding the crisis enables to define driving factors, which will continue to influence the crisis in the future. In addition are defined key uncertainties that could substantially reverse its predictable evolution. Four scenarios outlining alternative future development in northern Mali will be constructed in accordance with a chosen new scenario building method. They differ from each other by varied interactions between key actors and key unknowns and by their temporal and spatial dynamics.

Workflow systems orchestrate various business tasks to attain an objective. Web services can be leveraged to handle individual tasks. Before anyone intends to leverage service components, it is imperative and essential to evaluate the trustworthiness of these services. Therefore, choosing a trustworthy service has become an important decision while designing a workflow system. Trustworthiness can be defined as the likelihood of a service functioning as it is intended. Selection of a service that satisfies business goals involves collecting relevant information such as security mechanisms, reliability, performance and availability. It is important to arrive at total trustworthiness, which incorporates all of the above mentioned multi-facet values relevant to a service. These values can be gathered and analyzed to derive the total trustworthiness of a service. Measuring trustworthiness of a service involves arriving at a suitable value that would help an end-user make a decision for the given business settings. The primary focus of this thesis is to gather relevant details and measure trustworthiness based on inputs provided by the user. A conceptual model was developed after extensive literature review to identify factors that influence trustworthiness of a service. A mechanism was created to gather concept values for a given service and utilize those values to calculate trustworthiness index value. A proof-of-concept prototype was also developed. The prototype is a web-based application that implements the mechanism to measure the trustworthiness of the service. The prototype was evaluated using a scenario-based analysis method to demonstrate the utility of the trustworthiness mechanism using three different scenarios. Results of the evaluation shows that trustworthiness is a multidimensional concept, the relevant conceptual values can be collected, a trustworthiness index value can be calculated based on the gathered concepts, and a trustworthiness index can be interpreted to select the most relevant service for a given requirement.