In an effort to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels with a sustainable and environmentally sound improvements, the government of Ethiopia has recognized the need to promote biofuels development so as to support the green economy strategy of the country designed to bring a breakthrough for socio-economic and environmental transformations which are becoming the central excellence for current and future prosperity of the country towards the quality of life and global competitiveness. Under this picture, bioethanol fuel comes into the market as one of the possible options to achieve this ambitious goal.As part of the bioethanol road map, the government has established a binding 10% share of fuel ethanol in the SI-engine vehicles at the capital, Addis Ababa, where 70% of the imported gasoline is consumed. In addition a target of 15% share is set starting 2015 so as to tackle foreign currency loss, energy insecurity, and climate change. Therefore, this study attempts to investigate the potential shifts in bioethanol production and use to meet Ethiopia’s target through a supply chain dynamics approach that allows identifying any existing link(s) that could be acted on. For this purpose, bioethanol development in the country is modeled using Microsoft Excel with the main objective of understanding the nature of ethanol shift in production and use together with the associated shifts in primary resources, feedstock, and other associated products of the industry. The analysis includes the study of agricultural resources, techno-economic conditions, and socio-economic conditions as well as investigation of economic, environmental, and social implications using the current low blend (LB) and targets of medium blend (MB) and high blend (HB) scenarios.As a result of the potential studies, the identified potential land for sugarcane plantation is 700, 000 ha and is estimated at an annual ethanol production potential of around one billion litres from molasses. The existing and new sugar factories are expected to reach their full production capacity in 2020 and are estimated at annual ethanol production potential of about 390 million litres which is planned to be used in different market segments in order to minimize the consumption of petroleum products and the associated socio-economic, technical and environmental impacts. Regarding transport energy substitution, without significant production of ethanol from the existing sugar factories3.3% of the SI engine energy demand can be displaced currently at a competitive price. In 2030 the ethanol production is projected to contribute about 14.6 PJ of energy, two fold of the SI engine energy demand at the same year. Thus, ethanol has the potential to displace 100% of the SI engine energy demand by 2030 but it will require a combined development of other infrastructure in the transport sector. For this reason, the socio-economic, technical, and environmental assessment of ethanol in the SI engine transport sub-sector is conducted according to the government targets considering only 10% to 25% share shifts of the volumetric substitution. To this end, the annual ethanol consumption in SI engine transport sub-sector has the potential to save USD 19.2 to USD 63.2 million of the import bill in 2030 along with other socio-economic, technical, and environmental benefits and risks that require the combined development of transport infrastructure, other market segments, and large scale international trade in ethanol fuel. However, further work is needed on food insecurity impacts, local energy balance, local net GHG emissions, and local urban air quality assessments occurring mainly during the life cycle of bioethanol production and use.

At present, an important task for Chinese governments at all levels is to save energy and reduce pollutant emissions. The task of buildings energy efficiency accounts for 21% in the 12th Five Year Plan which from 2011 to 2015. With the development of social economy，the energy shortage is serious day by day．The energy-conservation of buildings is a high relevant issue in China．There are a large capacity and a wide range of existing buildings in Qingdao among which the overwhelming majority is the non-energy-efficient buildings and the operate energy consumption are enormous．At Present, according to the related statistic，the energy efficient building area only accounts for 3% to 5% of the total building area newly increased in our country every year, while in such existing buildings in Qingdao ，most of them are highly energy-consuming, the energy consumption in buildings is about 100-350 kWh for each floor area of the whole year，which is 2 to 3 times of the energy consumption of the same area of energy efficient buildings．So we can say that whether could we promote the effective use of resources and energy in buildings is very important，which will finally determine whether could we and take the road to sustainable development． In respect of the application of the complicated systematic scientific conclusions，the thesis carries out the analysis of geographic and climate characteristics in Qingdao area and the research of current energy consumption． Based on the quantitative model analysis of environmental and economic benefits of implementation of energy efficient buildings in Qingdao in scenario k, promotion and implementation of energy efficient buildings can substantially reduce the current high environmental cost associated with energy consumption for heating and cooling in buildings in Qingdao. Emission including carbon dioxides, sulfur oxide, nitrogen oxides and ash can be reduced, it means that under the scenario k energy efficient buildings has an idea performance on reducing pollutant gas. At the same time, companied by the great environmental benefits, there are also substantial economic benefits. Barriers to energy efficiency in buildings in Qingdao, including political, economic, social and technological barriers are discussed in this thesis. According to the investigation and analysis about the present situation and factors affecting the implementation of energy efficient buildings in Qingdao, this thesis put forward recommendations from the aspects of environment, politics, economy, society and technology to improving energy efficient buildings in Qingdao.

This study concerns the energy future of the county of Stockholm up until 2050 and describes how the energy consumption can be compared to today with the use of scenario methodology. Within energy future studies the backcasting approach is well known and has been put to use in this study. Due to the characteristics of backcasting the study is self-fulfilling, i.e. the future energy scenarios presented in this study satisfy the targets set up in this study. In the light of what may be the largest challenge of our time – the climate change - the aim of this study is to describe how the energy consumption in a fossil fuel free Stockholm county in the year of 2050 may be. The need to reduce the carbon emission to the atmosphere is extensive and of immediate urgency. One part of reducing carbon emission is to relinquish the fossil energy use which is attained either by reducing the energy consumption or switching to renewable energy use or a combination of both of these measures. The scenarios also describe the energy use per capita as well as carbon emissions per capita (due to energy use) besides being fossil fuel free. The energy use and carbon emission per capita is related to what is known as fair share of environmental space which may indicate if the per capita levels deduced in this study is consistent with a sustainable society. Several measures and their potential (to decrease the energy use or shifting into renewable energy fuels) are presented. The scope of measures reaches for example from energy efficiency to new infrastructure but also to reducing measures that reduce the need for example travels. The measures presented in the study are a reality today or will be in the near future, so the study takes on a non-technology optimistic approach. Several of the measures are combined into two different energy-futures for the year 2050 and their energy use is comparedto a business-as-usual-scenario. The business-as-usual-scenario describes the level of energy use in the County of Stockholm if no active measures are taken to reduce the energy use. The scenarios are presented with two different possible alternatives for the economic and population growth, i.e. alternative BAS (eng; base) and HÖG (eng; high). The study with its (only) two different future scenarios is not exhausting thepossible fossil fuel free futures of Stockholm County. Neither the measures nor the energy-futures have been evaluated from an economic or any other perspective. This means the study leave out whether the measures or the energy futures are feasible from an economic perspective or even desirable. The study also leaves out other perspectives like other environmental effects, health issues,equality, aesthetic etc. The aim of presenting different energy-futures of a fossil fuel free Stockholm county is to encourage, simulate stakeholders, policymakers and community citizens to further take an active interest and to start making the changes needed that leads to a fossil fuel free community. The energy-futures but also a few of the measures shows that the future energy use in Stockholm county in the year 2050 may decrease substantially compared 2003. As a result of this the need for renewable energy fuels (for replacing theuse of fossil energy fuels) is reduced. If Stockholm county may take an 10 % part of the bio energy that the whole of Sweden can produce in the future the fossil fuel free energy-futures presented in this study is secured. The energy-futures also shows that the energy use per capita may reach a sustainable level and also that the carbon emission per capita reaches a level far below the suggested level expressed by the Swedish government of 4,5 ton CO2 per capita. One step in the backcasting approach has been left out in this study, i.e. the path to the presented energy-futures. The reason for this is that it needs further analysis of the energy-futures from several other perspectives. As well as analysis over decision making processes, planning processes and different stakeholders involved. However the presented energy-futures may in some cases indicate what type of measures and decisions that needs to be taken and what kind of investments that are needed. Finally, the future is still yet unknown and the energy-futures presented in this study are in the long-time perspective which further increases the uncertainty ofthe scenarios because of uncertainty in collected data, calculations and assumptions made. On the other hand the aim of the study is not to present the most probable energy future but energy futures that fulfil the target of a fossil fuel free Stockholm county in the year 2050.

With a large amount of tyres being discarded every year, the question of how to manage the end-of-life tyres (ELTs) has become a serious issue. Thus this study identifies different driving forces for this management and the most possible scenarios for the future management of ELTs. The study also compares the business as usual model with a waste hierarchy model to explore the possibilities for optimizing management of ELTs through cascading. This study collects opinions about the driving forces of ELT management from 29 experts working in the area. Important driving forces identified were: price of substitute products, recycled materials’ market, environmental legislation, and technology. This study also surveys 23 experts in the tyre area about the most possible scenarios for ELTs in 2020. One of the more believed in futures was: “Due to increasingly limited fossil fuels and a rise of sustainability awareness, applications for ELTs are growing both in material and energy recycling.” This suggests that a shift toward an equal recycling situation of ELTs among material and energy might be likely to happen by 2020. Based on the most possible scenario for ELTs in 2020, a comparison between waste hierarchy model and business as usual model has been performed. The result shows that the (cascading) waste hierarchy model would likely create more environmental benefits than business as usual model. This is done though the saving and cycling of more materials from energy recovery into material recycling.

This study examines how and on what basis logistics centres are located in Greater Stockholm. Its purpose is to formulate a possible future scenario regarding localisations of logistics centres in Greater Stockholm in 10-15 years. Goods transports, distribution, property characteristics, market trends, investment decisions, localisation factors, potential challenges, public plans, transport infrastructure and logistics locations have been investigated in order to form a conclusion. There is a wide range of previous research on most fields mentioned above. Yet there is a gap regarding a picture of them from a market perspective applied to Stockholm’s future. The research method is qualitative, involving 31 interviews (34 respondents) representing logistics companies, goods holders, property developers, investors, consultants and municipalities; as they are making the decisions of tomorrow, i.e. "choose" the locations. The qualitative approach has been complemented with descriptions of infrastructure, regional plans and reports in order to consolidate and complement facts and opinions from the interviews. Together they provide the basis for a final analysis and discussion followed by a possible future scenario of Greater Stockholm’s major logistics locations. Stockholm’s population and purchase power is increasing; there is a housing shortage which is forecasted to worsen, environmental regulations get stricter, financing for logistics developments is getting harder, competition increases among logistics companies and the transport infrastructure in Stockholm is facing major changes. The strongest effects these parameters have had on logistics property market is that space consuming businesses move to the outskirts as they cannot find economy in being centrally located. The trend of space consuming activities leaving the city centres in favour of e.g. residential, office and retail use seem to continue. There is an increased interest from investors and operators for logistics in Greater Stockholm. Many central locations are left in order to find modern (more efficient) outskirt located (cheaper) premises. The major logistics centres in 10-15 years seem to be "Stockholm Nord" (Rosersberg/Arlanda) in the north "Stockholm Syd" (Södertälje/Nykvarn) in the south. Upplands-Bro and Jordbro will be important. Lunda/Järfälla, Västberga/Årsta together with minor areas in Botkyrka and Huddinge will mainly be options for smaller terminals or cross-docking units, as the land will be too expensive for businesses requiring large spaces.

The aim of this project was to study the leakage of CO2 in a Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS) system. To define the GCS system, a tool that is known as an FEP database was used. FEPs are the features, processes and events that develop scenarios for the goal of the study. Combinations of these FEPs can produce thousands of scenarios. However, among all of these scenarios, some are more important than others for leakage. The FEPs that were used as scenario developers were the formation of the liquid flow, the salinity of the formation liquid, diffusion as a process for gas bubble transport and the depth of the reservoir layer. In this study, the leakage path is considered as the presence of a fracture in sealed caprock. The fractures can be modeled using various approaches. Here, I represented the influence of fracture modeling by applying the Equivalent Continuum Method (ECM) and the Dual-Porosity and Multi-continuum methods to leakage. This study suggests that considering groundwater in the aquifer would reduce the leakage of CO2 and that a shallower formation leads to higher leakage. This study can be expanded to future studies by including external FEPs that are related to the FEPs that were used in this study.

Increasing importance of environmental concerns, growing demand for renewable energy, future introduction of electrical cars, improving energy efficiency, ambivalent attitude of society to nuclear power and multiple other external factors may become driving forces for future changes within the hydropower field in Sweden. On the other hand the dynamics for these changes can emerge from the value-systems, arguments, intentions and actions of the stakeholders, many of which are not satisfied by the present situation within the sector, but see its future changes in a different way. This makes the study case of hydropower in Sweden challenging for technology assessment and at the same time the technology assessment method, the scenario workshop that can provide interaction among the opposing parties and serve as a bridging event between the phase when various ways of future technology development are promoted by various actors and the decision-making phase. The ensuing research question is if the scenario workshop can be successfully applied to the hydropower case, the technology which is more than hundred years old, and if it can improve communication among the stakeholders to enhance their learning. The learning implies different dimensions such as Improved articulation of the problems at hand, probing each other‟s world and better understanding of the other stakeholders‟ positions and value systems, driving forces and crucial events for the future development of the whole hydropower sector and possible scenarios for this development. In order to answer this question more than 20 interviews with the main stakeholders have been carried out and a workshop based on possible external and internal future scenarios for hydropower in Sweden was organized. Evaluation of the workshop showed that the chosen method was efficient and the aim, which was stakeholders learning, was reached.

Bakgrund: Ledare behöver ofta ta ställning till och hantera nya digitala verktyg. Oftast faller de företag som inte hänger med i digitaliseringens snabba svängar mellan stolarna. Även ledarskapet genomgår en omvandling i och med digitaliseringen. Enkelheten i att kommunicera och dela information bidrar till att utmana hierarkier och funktioner i organisationer. Nu ökar användningen av teknik, inte minst på grund av den pågående Covid-19-pandemin. Det krävs av ledare att hitta nya sätt att fatta beslut på när arbetssituationen inte längre ser likadan ut som tidigare. Med hjälp av scenarioplanering kan ledare förbereda sig på de mer komplicerade besluten. En scenarioplanering handlar om att planera för möjliga utfall i framtiden baserat på det man vet i nuläget. Genom att skildra möjliga utfall hinner ledare planera och förbereda sig om något av dem inträffar. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att närmare undersöka vilken påverkan den ökade digitaliseringen kommer få på framtidens ledarroll samt att bidra till en ökad förståelse för hur digitaliseringen förändrar synen på ledarskap och rollen som ledare. Frågeställning: Hur kommer digitaliseringen påverka framtidens ledarskap? Hur kan ledare fatta beslut för att anpassa sig till digitaliseringens utveckling? Hur kan scenarioplanering användas som verktyg för att underlätta ledares beslutsfattande? Metod: Arbetet utgår från en abduktiv ansats med växelverkan mellan teori och empiri. Det empiriska resultatet är framtaget genom kvalitativa semistrukturerade intervjuer som sedan transkriberats och genomgått en form av tematisk analys där likheter och skillnader i intervjuerna pekats ut. Empiri och resultat: Empirin utgörs av intervjuer av experter respektive ledare. Expertintervjuerna bidrog till skapandet av scenariokorset och ledarintervjuerna bidrog med ett arbetslivsperspektiv på scenarierna. De fyra scenarier som tagits fram baseras på drivkrafterna kontroll och användning av framtida teknik. När scenarierna diskuterades med ledarna tog de bland annat upp att de hade föredragit mellanvarianter på scenarierna framför ett renodlat scenario. Slutsats: Genom att skapa scenarier svarar uppsatsen på hur digitaliseringen kan påverka framtidens ledarskap. Ledarna såg hellre en kombination av två scenarier istället för att ett scenario inträffar. Med kontinuerligt arbete kan scenarioplanering vara ett effektivt verktyg i den strategiska planeringen och beslutsfattandet. / Background: Leaders often need to take a stand on and manage new digital tools. Most often, the companies that do not keep up with the rapid turns of digitalization fall between the cracks. Leadership is also undergoing a transformation with digitalization. The simplicity of communicating and sharing information helps to challenge hierarchies and functions in organizations. Now the use of technology is increasing, not least due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Leaders are required to find new ways to make decisions when the work situation no longer looks the same as before. With the help of scenario planning, leaders can prepare for the more complicated decisions. Scenario planning is about planning for possible outcomes in the future based on what is known at present. By depicting possible outcomes, leaders have time to plan and prepare if any of them occur. Purpose: The purpose of the essay is to investigate in more detail the impact that increased digitalization will have on the future leadership role and to contribute to an increased understanding of how digitalisation changes the view of leadership and the role as a leader. Issue: How will digitalization affect future leadership? How can leaders make decisions to adapt to the development of digitalization? How can scenario planning be used as a tool to facilitate leaders' decision-making? Method: The work is based on an abductive approach with an interaction between theory and empiricism. The empirical result is produced through qualitative semi-structured interviews which then were transcribed and underwent a form of thematic analysis where similarities and differences in the interviews were pointed out. Empirical data and results: The empirical data consists of interviews with experts and leaders. The expert interviews contributed to the creation of the scenario cross and the leader interviews contributed with a working life perspective on the scenarios. The four scenarios developed are based on the driving forces of control and use of future technology. When the scenarios were discussed with the leaders, they mentioned, among other things, that they had preferred intermediate variants of the scenarios over a pure scenario. Conclusion: By creating scenarios, the essay responds to how digitalisation can affect future leadership. Leaders would rather see a combination of two scenarios instead of one scenario occurring. With continuous work, scenario planning can be an effective tool in strategic planning and decision-making.

This thesis focuses on the stability of ALM models formulated as problems of multistage stochastic programming, with respect to reductions in scenario tree. In the first chapter, we introduce multistage stochastic programming problem and the chosen approach of the master scenario tree generation. The second chapter describes models of asset price evolution in time and clustering algo- rithm used for generation of the master tree. In the third chapter, we describe three random and three deterministic scenario tree reduction algorithms. In the fourth chapter, we formulate two pension fund ALM problems - the first one is four-stage problem, the second one is seven-stage problem. The fifth chap- ter is dedicated to the description of the practical part of the thesis, in which we study and compare the stability of the objective function and the solutions in individual stages with respect to scenario tree reductions obtained from the algorithms described in the third chapter. 1

The Swedish forest is currently being debated as to how it should be managed to provide climate mitigation. Forest management can contribute to climate mitigation in mainly two ways. Either through increased sequestration and storage of carbon in the forest or as a consequence of the substitution effect, through which emissions can be avoided by utilizing harvested wood products to replace other emission-intensive products. However, these two climate benefits are at odds with each other, as efforts to increase the sequestration of carbon in the forest by increased conservation will decrease the amount of harvested biomass available for substitution. This fact has led to a disagreement between scholars regarding the climate benefits of increased forest conservation versus the climate benefits of maintaining a high harvest level. The climate benefit of increased forest conservation is influenced by how much additional carbon the growing forest can sequester over time. The climate benefit of forest harvest is instead directly related to the level of achieved substitution effect. As the substitution level is dynamic, it may change in the future due to various technological, economic, and societal developments, which would influence the potential climate benefit of forest harvest. In addition, intensifying forest management as a means to increase forest growth is also commonly suggested as a possible measure for enhancing the climate mitigation potential of the Swedish forest. This study aimed to investigate how the climate mitigation potential of different forest management regimes develops over time based on different potential levels of achieved substitution effect. Based on input data from the National Forest Inventory, the Heureka RegWise system was used to simulate the impact on sequestration of carbon dioxide and the available harvested biomass to be used for substitution for the different forest management regimes over a 150-year period. The results indicate that increased forest conservation provides a higher climate mitigation potential throughout a majority of the 150-year period. However, the climate benefit of increased conservation does diminish over time due to the set-aside forests' declining ability to sequester additional carbon. The rate at which the forest management regimes without increased conservation can catch up is influenced on which level of substitution that is applied. The results also indicate that increased utilization of growth-enhancing practices increases the climate mitigation potential of forest management.