To characterise the habitat preferences of ring ouzel (Turdus torquatus) and blackbird (T. merula) in Switzerland, we adopt species distribution modelling and predict the species’ spatial distribution. We model on two different scales to analyse in how far downscaling leads to a different set of predictors to describe the realised habitat best. While the models on macroscale (grid of one square kilometre) cover the entire country, we select a set of smaller plots for modelling on territory scale. Whereas ring ouzels occur in altitudes above 1’000 m a.s.l. only, blackbirds occur from the lowlands up to the timber line. The altitudinal range overlap of the two species is up to 400 m. Despite both species coexist on macroscale, a direct niche overlap on territory scale is rare. Small-scale differences in vegetation cover and structure seem to play a dominant role for habitat selection. On macroscale however, we observe a high dependency on climatic variables mainly representing the altitudinal range and the related forest structure preferred by the two species. Applying the models for climate change scenarios, we predict a decline of suitable habitat for the ring ouzel with a simultaneous median altitudinal shift of +440 m until 2070. In contrast, the blackbird is predicted to benefit from higher temperatures and expand its range to higher elevations. / Unter Verwendung von Habitatmodellen beschreiben wir die Habitatpräferenz von Amsel (Turdus merula) und Ringdrossel (T. torquatus) in der Schweiz. Mit Hilfe verschiedener Klimaszenarien prognostizieren wir zudem die künftige potentielle Verbreitung beider Arten. Zur Beschreibung eines eventuell auftretenden Skalensprungs, d.h. einer Änderung in der Beschreibungskraft der Variablen auf verschiedenen räumlichen Ebenen, erstellten wir Modelle auf zwei unterschiedlichen Skalen. Während das Modell auf Makroskala mit einer Maschenweite von einem Quadratkilometer die gesamte Schweiz abdeckt, erstellten wir zudem eine Auswahl an Untersuchungsgebieten auf Revierebene. Ringdrosseln zeigen ihren Verbreitungsschwerpunkt in der subalpinen Lage, während Amseln vornehmlich das Tiefland und die Tallagen besiedeln und nur vereinzelt in hohe Lagen vordringen. In einem Gürtel von ungefähr 400 Höhenmetern siedeln beide Arten parallel.Trotz dieses auf der Makroskala erkennbaren Überschneidungsbereiches konnten wir in unserer Untersuchung auf Revierebene, von einer Ausnahme abgesehen, keine Koexistenz beobachten. Kleinräumige Unterschiede in der Habitatstruktur, insbesondere in der Vegetationsbedeckung scheinen demnach für die Habitatselektion von maßgeblicher Bedeutung zu sein. Auf Makroebene hingegen wurde der Einfluss klimatischer Variablen deutlich, die neben der Höhenlage auch dort typische Vegetationsstrukturen widerspiegeln. Wie die Klimaszenarien zeigen, nehmen geeignete Ringdrosselhabitate bei steigenden Temperaturen ab und die Art weicht im Mittel um 440 m in höhere Lagen zurück. Für Amseln scheint sich eine zunehmende Erwärmung jedoch positiv auszuwirken, während das Verbreitungsgebiet im Tiefland beibehalten wird, dringt sie von den Tälern ausgehend zunehmend in höhere Lagen vor.

O interesse em valorizar os serviços ecossistêmicos fornecidos pela vegetação natural aumentou em um esforço para mitigar os efeitos da mudança do uso da terra. Nesta linha de pensamento, desenvolvemos um índice para valorar as comunidades de árvores - do ponto de vista antropocêntrico - da savana brasileira (Cerrado). O índice e a cartografia produzida servirão como ferramenta para a priorização da conservação, bem como para revelar como a colonização e a expansão da agricultura tem ocorrido. Para desenvolver o índice, foram produzidas novas camadas ambientais com resolução de 90m; A distribuição das 93 espécies mais comuns foi modelada; e a cartografia da distribuição de cada uso humano das árvores (alimentos, aromáticos, fibras, cosméticos, cortiça, etc., totalizando 20 usos) e um índice de valor total fo desenvolvido. O novo índice de valor, nomenado a Soma de Usos (SoU, Sum of Uses), representa o número esperado de usos para a montagem de espécies potenciais que poderia estar ocorrendo no lugar em condições ideais. O impacto da agricultura foi avaliado pela contabilização da área que foi convertida em lavouras. Nossos resultados indicam fortemente que a colonização humana e a expansão de terras cultivadas eliminaram as árvores de áreas que antes eram melhores prestadores de serviços ambientais. Por outro lado, observamos também que as áreas protegidas no Cerrado estão localizadas onde esperamos encontrar valor marginal para as espécies ótimas. Esses resultados nos levam a pensar que a estratégia de conservação pode estar longe de ser ideal para o maior remanescente arável do mundo. / The interest in valuing the ecosystem services provided by the natural vegetation has increased in an effort to mitigate the effects of land use change. In this line of thinking, we developed an index to value the tree communities -from an anthropocentric point of view- of the Brazilian savannah (Cerrado). The index and the cartography produced will serve as a tool for prioritization of conservation, has well as to unveil how colonization and agriculture expansion has taken place. In order to develop the index: new environmental layers at 90m resolution were produced; the most common 93 species’ distribution was modelled; and cartography for each use humans derive from the trees (food, aromatic, fiber, cosmetic, cork, etc., totaling 20 uses) and a total value index were developed. The new index of value, namely the Sum of Uses (SoU), represent the expected number of uses for the potential species assemblage that could be taking place under optimal conditions. The impact of agriculture was assessed by accounting for the area that has been converted to croplands. Our results strongly indicate that human settlement and cropland expansion have cleared the trees of areas that once were better than average ecosystem service providers. On the other hand, we also observe that protected areas in the Cerrado are located where we expect to find marginal value for the optimal communities. These results lead us to think that the conservation strategy might be far from optimal for the largest remaining arable patch in the world.

O interesse em valorizar os serviços ecossistêmicos fornecidos pela vegetação natural aumentou em um esforço para mitigar os efeitos da mudança do uso da terra. Nesta linha de pensamento, desenvolvemos um índice para valorar as comunidades de árvores - do ponto de vista antropocêntrico - da savana brasileira (Cerrado). O índice e a cartografia produzida servirão como ferramenta para a priorização da conservação, bem como para revelar como a colonização e a expansão da agricultura tem ocorrido. Para desenvolver o índice, foram produzidas novas camadas ambientais com resolução de 90m; A distribuição das 93 espécies mais comuns foi modelada; e a cartografia da distribuição de cada uso humano das árvores (alimentos, aromáticos, fibras, cosméticos, cortiça, etc., totalizando 20 usos) e um índice de valor total fo desenvolvido. O novo índice de valor, nomenado a Soma de Usos (SoU, Sum of Uses), representa o número esperado de usos para a montagem de espécies potenciais que poderia estar ocorrendo no lugar em condições ideais. O impacto da agricultura foi avaliado pela contabilização da área que foi convertida em lavouras. Nossos resultados indicam fortemente que a colonização humana e a expansão de terras cultivadas eliminaram as árvores de áreas que antes eram melhores prestadores de serviços ambientais. Por outro lado, observamos também que as áreas protegidas no Cerrado estão localizadas onde esperamos encontrar valor marginal para as espécies ótimas. Esses resultados nos levam a pensar que a estratégia de conservação pode estar longe de ser ideal para o maior remanescente arável do mundo. / The interest in valuing the ecosystem services provided by the natural vegetation has increased in an effort to mitigate the effects of land use change. In this line of thinking, we developed an index to value the tree communities -from an anthropocentric point of view- of the Brazilian savannah (Cerrado). The index and the cartography produced will serve as a tool for prioritization of conservation, has well as to unveil how colonization and agriculture expansion has taken place. In order to develop the index: new environmental layers at 90m resolution were produced; the most common 93 species’ distribution was modelled; and cartography for each use humans derive from the trees (food, aromatic, fiber, cosmetic, cork, etc., totaling 20 uses) and a total value index were developed. The new index of value, namely the Sum of Uses (SoU), represent the expected number of uses for the potential species assemblage that could be taking place under optimal conditions. The impact of agriculture was assessed by accounting for the area that has been converted to croplands. Our results strongly indicate that human settlement and cropland expansion have cleared the trees of areas that once were better than average ecosystem service providers. On the other hand, we also observe that protected areas in the Cerrado are located where we expect to find marginal value for the optimal communities. These results lead us to think that the conservation strategy might be far from optimal for the largest remaining arable patch in the world.

Os grandes carnívoros necessitam de vastos territórios para sobreviver em longo prazo, sendo que sua coexistência com humanos é fundamental, porém gera conflitos. O objetivo geral dessa tese é integrar a conservação de grandes carnívoros ao processo de planejamento de uso e ocupação da terra do estado de São Paulo. Para isso os objetivos específicos são: (1) sistematizar, espacializar e analisar a ocorrência de grandes carnívoros, estabelecendo correlações com os padrões de uso e ocupação da terra, variáveis climáticas e topográficas; (2) estabelecer áreas prioritárias para conservação de grandes carnívoros no estado de São Paulo; e (3) caracterizar os padrões de uso e conservação da terra nos municípios indicando necessidades e oportunidades para conservação (ênfase em Brotas-SP). O delineamento desse estudo foi feito buscando a aplicação de Modelos de Distribuição de Espécies - MDEs (espécies estudadas: Chrysocyon brachyurus, Leopardus Pardalis e Puma concolor) em uma abordagem de Planejamento Sistemático da Conservação - PSC. Para isso, foi aplicado o algoritmo MAXENT para as análises de distribuição das espécies e o algoritmo ZONATION para análises de priorização espacial e identificação de áreas prioritárias para conservação. Os modelos gerados mostraram alto desempenho (AUCs ≥ 0.8) e foram significantes (p ≤ 0.05) para o limite de corte mais inclusivo considerado \"minimum training presence\". Apesar da plasticidade das espécies estudadas, a variável porcentagem de vegetação nativa foi uma das três mais importantes para os modelos gerados. A distribuição das espécies abrange tanto paisagens naturais quanto paisagens antropizadas, porém as áreas com alta adequabilidade ambiental (acima de 0.5) se concentram em regiões com vegetação nativa remanescente e em sua maior parte não estão protegidas em Unidades de Conservação de Proteção Integral. Os resultados das análises de priorização espacial mostraram prioridades altas para os carnívoros concentradas na região central do estado de São Paulo, onde existem conflitos entre a demanda por áreas para conservação e a demanda por áreas para desenvolvimento humano. Recomenda-se a ampliação das UCPIs nessa região e ações de manejo e conservação em propriedades privadas (ex. Reservas Legais e Áreas de Preservação Permanente). Tanto as prioridades para conservação como as prioridades para desenvolvimento são muito diferentes entre os municípios do estado de São Paulo. Sendo assim, as estratégias precisam ser elaboradas caso a caso em escala municipal. Brotas possui localização estratégica na conservação de grandes carnívoros com alta porcentagem de áreas núcleo e alto potencial ecoturístico, sendo recomendada a expansão de UCPIs e a restauração da vegetação nativa para ampliar a proteção de grandes carnívoros. Os resultados desse estudo devem informar o processo de tomada de decisão (Ex. Planos de Ação para Conservação de Espécies Ameaçadas; Zoneamentos; Avaliações de Impactos Ambientais) e a abordagem metodológica serve como um modelo para orientar processos semelhantes que visam à conservação de espécies em outras regiões. / Large carnivores need large territories to survive in long term, requiring the use of existing protected areas and private properties with many land uses types and human occupation levels for dispersion and as additional habitat. Thus, the coexistence between large carnivores and humans is essential. However, it leads to conflicts of interest. The overall objective of this thesis is to integrate the conservation of large mammals to land use planning process in São Paulo State, Brazil. For this, the specific objectives are: (1) to systematize, to spatialize and to analyze the occurrence of large mammals, establishing correlations between large mammals distribution and land use patterns, climatic and topographic variables; (2) to establish priority areas for conservation of large mammals in São Paulo State; and (3) to characterize the land use and conservation patterns in São Paulo\'s municipalities (emphasis in Brotas-SP). The design of this study aimed to apply Species Distribution Models tools (species studied: Chrysocyon brachyurus, Leopardus Pardalis and Puma concolor) in an approach of Systematic Conservation Planning. For this, MAXENT algorithm was applied for species distribution modelling and Zonation algorithm was applied for spatial prioritization analysis and conservation priority areas identification. All models were significant (p ≤ 0.05) considering the minimum training presence threshold showing high performance (AUC ≥ 0.8). Despite the plasticity of the species, the variable percentage of native vegetation was one of the top three most important for all models. The distribution of the species covers both natural and disturbed landscapes, but high environmental suitability areas (up to 0.5) concentrate in regions with native vegetation fragments. However the most part of these areas are not protected by law. Spatial prioritization results showed high priorities for carnivores concentrate in the central region of São Paulo, where there are conflicts there are both high demand for carnivore conservation and high demand for human development. Conservation strategies need to be developed case by case because both priorities for conservation and priorities for development were showed very different between the municipalities. For example, Brotas is strategic for carnivore\'s conservation, having high percentage of core areas in its territory and high ecotourism potential. However the percent of native vegetation cover is low. Therefore, it is recommended protected areas expansion and native vegetation restoration to increase the protection of large carnivores in Brotas. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for large mammals, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also native habitat conservation and management on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental policies and land use planning in São Paulo State, Brazil (e.g. Action Plan for Conservation of Endangered Species; Zoning; Reviews of Environmental Impacts), and it serves as a useful model to guide similar process for other large-carnivore species world-wide.

Bacillus anthracis is the causal agent of anthrax which primarily affects ungulates, occasionally carnivores and less frequently humans. The endospores of this soil-borne bacterium are highly resistant to extreme conditions, and under ideal conditions, anthrax spores can survive for many years in the soil. The bacterium is generally found in soil at sites where infected animals have died. When these spores are exposed, they have the potential to be ingested by a mammalian species which could lead to an anthrax outbreak. Anthrax is almost never transmitted directly from host to host, but is rather ingested by herbivores while drinking, grazing or browsing in a contaminated environment, with the exception of scavengers and carnivores consuming infected prey. Anthrax is known to be endemic in the northern part of Kruger National Park (KNP) in South Africa (SA), with occasional epidemics spreading southward into the non-endemic areas. The aim of this study is to identify and map areas that are ecologically suitable for the harbouring of B. anthracis spores within the KNP. Anthrax surveillance data and selected environmental variables were used as inputs to the maximum entropy (Maxent) species distribution modelling method. Five-hundred and ninety-seven anthrax occurrence records, dating from the year 1988 to 2011, were extracted from the Skukuza State Veterinary Office’s database. A total of 40 environmental variables were used and their relative contribution to predicting suitability for anthrax occurrence was evaluated using Maxent software (version 3.3.3k). Variables showing the highest gain were then used for subsequent, refined model iterations until the final model parameters were established. The environmental variables that contributed the most to the occurrence of anthrax were soil type, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land type and precipitation. A map was created using a geographic information system (GIS) that illustrates the sites where anthrax spores are most likely to occur throughout the Park. This included the known endemic Pafuri region as well as the low lying soils along the Shingwedzi-Phugwane-Bubube rivers and the Letaba-Olifants river drainage area. The outputs of this study could guide future targeted surveillance efforts to focus on areas predicted to be highly suitable for anthrax, especially since the KNP uses passive surveillance to detect anthrax outbreaks. Knowing where to look can improve sampling efficiency and lead to increased understanding of the ecology of anthrax within the KNP. / Dissertation (MMedVet)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / Production Animal Studies / unrestricted

The Nile monitor (Varanus niloticus) is a large, carnivorous lizard that has become a notorious invasive species in Florida, USA. Initially released in the 1980s from the pet trade, the species has since established at least three breeding populations and spread throughout much of southern Florida. While current control efforts have failed to eradicate V. niloticus, it is important to attain a better understanding of its invasive dynamics to guide and inform better control strategies. In this study, available georeferenced records of V. niloticus in Florida were compiled and linked to a habitat classification map to evaluate ecotype preferences. Factored with bioclimatic data, the regional spread of V. niloticus was modelled for contemporary and projected (i.e., in the year 2050) presence using Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance models. Study results indicate that V. niloticus maintains a strong presence in eastern Lee County on the southwestern coast. Populations in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties on the southeastern coast may be interconnected, contrary to current descriptions that they are separated from each another. Model forecasts of conditions for the year 2050 identify widespread expansion of V. niloticus in Florida, particularly northward with the establishment of a new population center in Pasco County in the western central peninsula. This is the first known modelling study of V. niloticus in Florida and identifies regions at greater risk for future population expansion.

Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) plays a key role in a number of biological applications: assessment of temporal trends in distribution, environmental impact assessment and spatial conservation planning. From a statistical perspective, this thesis develops two methods for increasing the accuracy and reliability of maps of density surfaces and provides a solution to the problem of how to collate multiple density maps of the same region, obtained from differing sources. From a biological perspective, these statistical methods are used to analyse two marine mammal datasets to produce accurate maps for use in spatial conservation planning and temporal trend assessment. The first new method, Complex Region Spatial Smoother [CReSS; Scott-Hayward et al., 2013], improves smoothing in areas where the real distance an animal must travel (`as the animal swims') between two points may be greater than the straight line distance between them, a problem that occurs in complex domains with coastline or islands. CReSS uses estimates of the geodesic distance between points, model averaging and local radial smoothing. Simulation is used to compare its performance with other traditional and recently-developed smoothing techniques: Thin Plate Splines (TPS, Harder and Desmarais [1972]), Geodesic Low rank TPS (GLTPS; Wang and Ranalli [2007]) and the Soap lm smoother (SOAP; Wood et al. [2008]). GLTPS cannot be used in areas with islands and SOAP can be very hard to parametrise. CReSS outperforms all of the other methods on a range of simulations, based on their fit to the underlying function as measured by mean squared error, particularly for sparse data sets. Smoothing functions need to be flexible when they are used to model density surfaces that are highly heterogeneous, in order to avoid biases due to under- or over-fitting. This issue was addressed using an adaptation of a Spatially Adaptive Local Smoothing Algorithm (SALSA, Walker et al. [2010]) in combination with the CReSS method (CReSS-SALSA2D). Unlike traditional methods, such as Generalised Additive Modelling, the adaptive knot selection approach used in SALSA2D naturally accommodates local changes in the smoothness of the density surface that is being modelled. At the time of writing, there are no other methods available to deal with this issue in topographically complex regions. Simulation results show that CReSS-SALSA2D performs better than CReSS (based on MSE scores), except at very high noise levels where there is an issue with over-fitting. There is an increasing need for a facility to combine multiple density surface maps of individual species in order to make best use of meta-databases, to maintain existing maps, and to extend their geographical coverage. This thesis develops a framework and methods for combining species distribution maps as new information becomes available. The methods use Bayes Theorem to combine density surfaces, taking account of the levels of precision associated with the different sets of estimates, and kernel smoothing to alleviate artefacts that may be created where pairs of surfaces join. The methods were used as part of an algorithm (the Dynamic Cetacean Abundance Predictor) designed for BAE Systems to aid in risk mitigation for naval exercises. Two case studies show the capabilities of CReSS and CReSS-SALSA2D when applied to real ecological data. In the first case study, CReSS was used in a Generalised Estimating Equation framework to identify a candidate Marine Protected Area for the Southern Resident Killer Whale population to the south of San Juan Island, off the Pacific coast of the United States. In the second case study, changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of harbour porpoise and minke whale in north-western European waters over a period of 17 years (1994-2010) were modelled. CReSS and CReSS-SALSA2D performed well in a large, topographically complex study area. Based on simulation results, maps produced using these methods are more accurate than if a traditional GAM-based method is used. The resulting maps identified particularly high densities of both harbour porpoise and minke whale in an area off the west coast of Scotland in 2010, that might be a candidate for inclusion into the Scottish network of Nature Conservation Marine Protected Areas.

From an ecological perspective, knowledge of demographic history is highly valuable because population size fluctuations can be matched to known climatic events, thereby revealing great insight into a species’ reaction to past climate change. This in turn enables us to predict how they might respond to future climate scenarios. Prominently, with the advent of high-throughput sequencing it is now becoming possible to assemble genomes of non-model organisms thereby providing unprecedented resolution to the study of demographic history and speciation. This thesis utilises four species of grouse (Aves, subfamily Tetraoninae) in order to explore the demographic history and speciation within this lineage; the willow grouse, red grouse, rock ptarmigan and the black grouse. I, and my co-authors, begin by reviewing the plethora of methods used to estimate contemporary effective population size (Ne) and demographic history that are available to animal conservation practitioners. We find that their underlying assumptions and necessary input data can bias in their application, and thus we provide a summary of their applicability. I then use the whole genomes of the black grouse, willow grouse and rock ptarmigan to infer their population dynamics within the last million years. I find three dominant periods that shape their demographic history: early Pleistocene cooling (3-0.9 Mya), the mid-Brunhes event (430 kya) and the last glacial period (110-10 kya). I also find strong signals of local population history – recolonization and subdivision events – affecting their demography. In the subsequent study, I explore the grouse dynamics within the last glacial period in more detail by including more distant samples and using ecological modelling to track habitat distribution changes. I further uncover strong signals of local population history, with multiple fringe populations undergoing severe bottlenecks. I also determine that future climate change is expected to drastically constrict the distribution of the studied grouse. Lastly, I use whole genome sequencing to uncover 6 highly differentiated regions, containing 7 genes, hinting at their role in adaptation and speciation in three grouse taxa. I also locate a region of low differentiation, containing the Agouti pigmentation gene, indicating its role in the grouse plumage coloration.

Approximately 25% of bats globally are threatened, but limited data on African bats, which account for 20% of bat species, hinders our understanding of their conservation status across this ecologically diverse continent. This study combined: modelling techniques, to predict current species distributions for 58 southern African bat species and project past, current and future distributions of 22 endemic and near-endemic species; bat acoustic surveys, to assess landscape features influencing bat activity in arid and semi-arid regions; and conservation planning software to design a large-scale monitoring network for bats across this subcontinent. Species distribution models were employed using a robust and well established presence-only modelling technique (Maximum Entropy – Maxent) to model the current distributions of 58 species in southern Africa. Although the important eco-geographical variables were species- or in some cases family-specific, overall water availability (both temporary and permanent), seasonal precipitation, vegetation and karst (caves/limestone) areas were the most important factors associated with distribution patterns. These species distributions were then used to identify range-restricted and narrow niche breadth species, alongside other life-history strategies considered to put species at risk, such as Old World pteropodids and cave-dwelling bats to identify species most at risk. Nine of the 58 species in this study were identified as ‘at risk’. Considering range-restriction and endemism separately, the results showed that range-restricted species were a higher proportion (50%) of ‘at risk’ species than endemics (41%) but six of the nine identified species were endemic and range restricted (67%). If only areas of high species richness are prioritised, important areas with low species richness but rare, ‘at risk’ or endemic species would be excluded. Species distributions are not fixed but may shift due to changes in environmental conditions. Accurately predicting changes in species’ distributions due to anthropogenic climate change remains a fundamental challenge for conservation biologists, and this is amplified when dealing with taxa such as bats that are inherently difficult to study and in areas, such as Africa, with sparse ecological data. To better understand endemic bat species risk to climate change in southern Africa and to highlight historical and future likely refugia, Maxent was employed to forecast range-shifts for 22 southern African endemic or near-endemic species. Species distributions were projected during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM ~22,000 BP), present (1950-2000) and future (2070: averaged 2061-2080, using IPCC5 scenarios) climatic conditions. Climate change was predicted to change species composition extensively within a relatively short timescale (within 60 years). By 2070, 86% of species modelled are predicted to have range contractions and six species were highlighted to be most at risk, with range contractions of more than 20%. The majority of southern Africa is composed or arid or semi-arid regions. Generally arid and semi-arid areas are overlooked and understudied due to low species richness, yet these areas are known to have a high proportion of endemic species. As part of this study, driven transects were carried out across arid and semi-arid areas to assess bat activity in these areas. Bat activity was recorded at 94% of the acoustic surveys, demonstrating that driven transects are an effective method of surveying bats in southern Africa. Bat activity increased at lower altitudes and higher latitudes, which characteristically have more rainfall, permanent water and vegetation. Although water has been shown in other studies to be important for bats, temporary water was not shown to influence bat activity and permanent water was positively correlated with bat activity for hipposiderids and rhinolophids and FM bats, which may reflect the fact that water features important for bats at smaller scale. The same two vegetation types that were consistently negatively correlated with bat activity were drier vegetation types (Karoo-Namib shrubland) and high salinity halophytic vegetation. Finally, a systematic conservation planning software tool (Marxan) was used to design multi-species monitoring networks that incorporated all 58 target species across the 11 ecoregions found in southern Africa. To ensure rare, endemic and range-restricted species were monitored at the same level as widespread species, species distributions (mapped using Maxent) were extracted by ecoregion. Monitoring targets (i.e. a percentage of species distribution across ecoregions) were standardised to ensure the same percentage of predicted distribution was included across all species (rare and widespread). To account for different resources and capacity, three optimal monitoring networks (minimum monitoring stations to achieve the monitoring targets) were proposed to survey 1, 5 or 10% of all species distributions within each ecoregion. The optimal solution for monitoring 1% of species distributions within ecoregions was found by monitoring 1,699 stations (survey sites), or for 5% 8,486 stations and finally for 10% 17,867 stations would be needed. In conclusion, the findings presented in this thesis have important conservation implications and have the potential to inform the practical steps required towards the introduction of a bat monitoring programme in southern Africa. While this study has highlighted challenges to African bat conservation, it has also demonstrated that an integrated and multi-disciplinary approach, using emerging techniques and conservation tools (e.g. conservation planning and automated call analysis software) can be used to fill knowledge gaps and inform conservation priorities in the absence of systematically collected data.

Atualmente estamos presenciando mudanças climáticas ao nível global sem precedentes, as quais se tornarão mais severas no decorrer dos anos, podendo causar danos irreversíveis à biodiversidade. Como as espécies irão reagir a essas mudanças e quais ações de conservações devem ser tomadas estão entre os tópicos mais significantes na ecologia atualmente. As mudanças climáticas têm sido apontadas como uma das principais causas de reduções (e alterações) na distribuição geográfica e abundância de muitas espécies, e até mesmo a extinção. Os modelos de nicho ecológico têm sido uma ferramenta muito utilizada a fim de compreender como a distribuição das espécies pode ser afetada pelas mudanças climáticas. Os modelos fornecem valiosas informações sobre o potencial efeito das mudanças climáticas na distribuição futura das espécies, podendo assim ser usado para a compreensão de como e quais espécies podem ser mais afetadas, além dos locais adequados para sua conservação. Uma vez que informações importantes sobre os organismos não são incorporadas nos modelos, é fundamental o conhecimento sobre a biologia e história natural das espécies para a interpretação dos resultados. No presente estudo é aprestada uma revisão sobre o atual estado de conhecimento das quatro espécies do gênero Eunectes em relação à distribuição geográfica, uso do habitat e microhabitat, atividade diária e sazonal, reprodução, tamanho corporal, dieta e status de conservação. Adicionalmente aspectos da história natural de uma população da sucuri verde, Eunectes murinus, foram estudados em locais florestados, na cidade de Bonito, MS, e aqui são apresentados dados sobre movimentação, uso do microhabitat, reprodução e dieta. Ainda, foram desenvolvidos modelos de nicho climático para cada uma das quatro espécies a fim de entender os possíveis impactos das mudanças climáticas nessas espécies em dois cenários futuros. Foram assumidas duas abordagens de dispersão, com livre dispersão e sem dispersão. A partir dos resultados foi possível reconhecer padrões na biologia das espécies de Eunectes, identificar as principais lacunas de conhecimento e sugerir onde esforços em pesquisa devem ser focados. Além disso, importantes dados sobre a história natural da sucuri verde (E. murinus) foram registrados. Foi observado que, em relação à movimentação, dieta e reprodução, aparentemente a espécie mantém o padrão já registrado em estudos anteriores. Entretanto, o uso do microhabitat diferiu substancialmente, tendo sido encontrado um número muito elevado de indivíduos utilizando árvores. As projeções futuras indicam que, para o intervalo entre os anos de 2061-2080, todas as espécies, menos E. notaeus, perderão grande quantidade de hábitat climaticamente adequado, sendo E. deschauenseei a mais afetada (100% de perda com e sem dispersão no pior cenário). Ainda, as análises apontam que haverá uma mudança de local adequado para a potencial ocorrência de três espécies. Sem dispersão, todas as espécies perderão área, sendo que E. beniensis perderá 100% de habitat adequado em ambos os cenários de alterações climáticas. As informações geradas por este estudo ajudam a melhorar a compreensão da ecologia, história natural e distribuição das espécies do gênero, bem como indica quais as espécies poderão ser mais prejudicadas pelas mudanças climáticas em curso. Finalmente, os resultados fornecem subsídios para a formulação de planos de conservação, indicando importantes áreas que poderão servir de refúgio climático para as espécies / We are currently witnessing unprecedented global climate change, which will become more severe over the years and can cause irreversible damage to biodiversity. How species will react to these changes and what conservation actions should be taken are among the most significant topics in ecology today. Climate change has been identified as a major cause of reductions (and changes) in geographic distribution and abundance of many species, and even extinction. Ecological niche models have been widely used in order to understand how the distribution of species can be affected by climate change. The models provide valuable information on the potential effect of climate change on the future distribution of species and can be used to assess how and which species may be most affected, as well as the appropriate sites for their conservation. Since important information about the species is not incorporated into the models, the knowledge about their biology and natural history is crucial for interpretating the results. In the present study a review is presented on the current state of knowledge about the four species of the genus Eunectes in relation to geographic distribution, habitat and microhabitat use, daily and seasonal activity, reproduction, body size, diet and conservation status. In addition, natural history aspects of a green anaconda (E. murinus) population were studied in forested sites in the Bonito municipality, Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil, where data on movement, microhabitat use, reproduction and diet are presented. Furthermore, climate niche models were developed for each of the four species in order to understand the possible impacts of climate change under two future scenarios.Two dispersion approaches were performed, with \"free dispersion\" and \"no dispersion\". It was possible to recognize patterns in the biology of Eunectes species, identify the main knowledge gaps and to suggest where research efforts should be focused. Moreover, important data on the natural history of the green anaconda (E. murinus) were recorded. It was observed that, in relation to movement, diet and reproduction, the species apparently maintains the pattern recorded in previous studies. However, the use of the microhabitat differed substantially, with a very high number of individuals being found on trees. Future projections indicate that, for the interval between the years 2061-2080, all species, but E. notaeus, will lose a large amount of climatically suitable habitat, with E. deschauenseei being the most affected (100% loss with and without dispersion in the worst scenario). Future projections also indicate that there will be a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat for the potential occurrence of three species. Without dispersion, all species will lose area, and E. beniensis will lose 100% of suitable habitat in both climate change scenarios. The information generated by this study helps to improve the knowledge about the ecology, natural history and distribution of the species of Eunectes, as well as indicates which species may be most affected by ongoing climate change. Finally, the results provide subsidies for the formulation of conservation plans, indicating important areas that could serve as a climate refuge for the species