Σκοπός της παρούσας διπλωματικής εργασίας είναι η μελέτη των υπερτάσεων οι οποίες εμφανίζονται σε φωτοβολταϊκές διατάξεις λόγω των κεραυνικών πληγμάτων, τα οποία σημειώνονται, είτε απευθείας στις διατάξεις αυτές, είτε σε παρακείμενα σημεία. Η διάρθρωση της διπλωματικής εργασίας έχει ως εξής: Στο πρώτο κεφάλαιο γίνεται μια θεωρητική ανάλυση του φωτοβολταϊκού φαινόμενου, καθώς επίσης και των ηλεκτρικών χαρακτηριστικών των φωτοβολταϊκών στοιχείων. Επίσης παρατίθενται μερικά εκ των πλεονεκτημάτων και μειονεκτημάτων αυτής της τεχνολογίας. Στο δεύτερο κεφάλαιο περιγράφονται συνοπτικά τα είδη των φωτοβολταϊκών πλαισίων τα οποία χρησιμοποιούνται ευρέως στην αγορά, τα μέρη τα οποία απαρτίζουν ένα φωτοβολταϊκό σύστημα, αυτόνομο ή διασυνδεδεμένο, καθώς επίσης παρουσιάζονται και κάποια οικονομικά δεδομένα τα οποία σχετίζονται με το συνολικό εκτιμώμενο κόστος μιας φωτοβολταϊκής εγκατάστασης ισχύος 100kWP. Στο τρίτο κεφάλαιο παρουσιάζεται σε θεωρητικό επίπεδο ο ολοκληρωμένος τρόπος αντικεραυνικής προστασίας φωτοβολταϊκών διατάξεων, ο οποίος απαρτίζεται από δύο μέρη, την εξωτερική και την εσωτερική αντικεραυνική προστασία, όπως ορίζουν οι σχετικοί διεθνείς κανονισμοί. Στο τέταρτο κεφάλαιο πραγματοποιείται εργαστηριακή μελέτη, για να εκτιμηθεί η διηλεκτρική αντοχή ενός δοκιμαστικού φωτοβολταϊκού πλαισίου, σε κρουστική τάση τυποποιημένης μορφής 1.2/50 μsec, σύμφωνα με τον κανονισμό IEC 61730-2. Πριν και μετά τις καταπονήσεις, διεξάγονται μετρήσεις, για να διαπιστωθούν τυχόν επιπτώσεις, στις χαρακτηριστικές I-V και P-I, του δοκιμαστικού φωτοβολταϊκού πλαισίου, και, εξάγονται τα σχετικά συμπεράσματα. / The aim of this diplomatic report is the study of surges which appear in photovoltaic arrays because of the lightning’s strikes, which take place directly on these arrays or on nearby areas. The structure is as follows: In the first chapter there is a theoretical analysis of the photovoltaic phenomenon, as well as an analysis of the electrical characteristics of PV-modules. Some of the advantages and disadvantages of this technology are also mentioned. In the second chapter what are briefly described are the sorts of photovoltaic frames that are widely used in the market, the parts of which a photovoltaic system is comprised, autonomous or on grid, and some data relevant to the total estimated cost of a photovoltaic installation, of 100kWp power, are also presented. In the third chapter the completely method of lightning protection of photovoltaic arrays is presented on a theoretical basis. This method of lightning protection is divided in two parts, the outer and inner lightning protection, as the relevant international regulations demand. In the fourth chapter, a laboratory study is given, in order to evaluate the dielectric withstand of a test photovoltaic frame, in impulse voltage standard form 1.2/50 μsec, according to regulation IEC 61730-2. Measures are taken before and after the stresses for any consequences to be confirmed, in the characteristic I-V and P-I, of the test photovoltaic frame consequently the relevant conclusions are drawn.

The Eskom East Grid Traction Network (EGTN) supplying traction loads and distribution networks has experienced at least one surge arrester failure over the past ten years. These failures results in poor network reliability and customer dissatisfactions which are often overlooked. This is because reliability indices used in the reliability evaluation of transmission and distribution networks are different. It is suspected that fast transient faults in this network initiate system faults leading to surge arrester design parameter exceedances and poor network insulation coordination. Preliminary investigations in network suggest that transient studies were not done during network planning and design stages. This may have resulted in the lack of surge arrester parameter evaluations under transient conditions leading to improper surge arresters being selected and installed in this network resulting in surge arrester failures that are now evident. These failures may also have been exacerbated by the dynamic nature of traction loads as they are highly unbalanced, have poor power factors and emit high voltage distortions. Poor in-service conditions such as defects, insulation partial discharges and overheating, bolted faults in the network and quality of supply emissions can also contribute to surge arrester failures. To address problems arising with different reliability indices in these networks the reliability of the EGTN is evaluated. In this work the reliability evaluation of the EGTN is done by computing common distribution reliability indices using analytic and simulation methods. This is done by applying the analytic method in the EGTN by assessing network failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) when the surge arrester fails in this network. The simulation method is applied by applying and modifying the MATLAB code proposed by Shavuka et al. [1]. These reliability indices are then compared with transmission reliability indices over the same period. This attempts to standardize reliability evaluations in these networks. To assess the impact of transient faults in the surge arrester parameter evaluation the EGTN is modelled and simulated by initiating transient faults sequentially in the network at different nodes and under different loading conditions. This is done by using Power System Blockset (PSB), Power System Analysis Toolbox (PSAT) and Alternate Transient Program (ATP) simulation tools and computing important surge arrester parameters i.e. continuous operating voltage, rated voltage, discharge current and energy absorption capability (EAC). These parameters are assessed by in the EGTN by evaluating computed surge arrester parameters against parameters provided by manufacturers, the Eskom 88 kV surge arrester specification and those parameters recommended in IEC 60099-4. To assess the impact and contribution of in-service conditions, faults and quality of supply emissions in surge arrester failures these contributing factors are investigated by assessing infra-red scans, fault analysis reports, results of the sampled faulted surge arrester in this network and quality of supply parameters around the time of failures. This study found that Eskom transmission and distribution network reliability indices can be standardized as distribution reliability indices i.e. SAIDI, SAIFI, CAIDI, ASAI and ASUI indices are similar to Eskom transmission indices i.e. SM, NOI, circuit availability index and circuit unavailability index respectively. Transient simulations in this study showed that certain surge arresters in the EGTN had their rated surge arrester parameters exceeded under certain transient conditions and loading conditions. These surge arresters failed as their discharge currents and EACs were exceeded under heavy and light network loading conditions. This study concluded that surge arresters whose discharge currents and EACs exceeded were improperly evaluated and selected prior to their installations in the EGTN. This study found the EAC to be the most import parameter in surge arrester performance evaluations. The Eskom 88 kV surge arrester specification was found to be inadequate, inaccurate and ambiguous as a number of inconsistencies in the usage of IEEE and IEC classified systems terminology were found. It was concluded that these inconsistencies may have led to confusions for manufacturers during surge arrester designs and selections in the EGTN. The evaluation of fault reports showed that two surge arrester failures in this network were caused by hardware failures such as conductor failure and poor network operating as the line was continuously closed onto a fault. There was no evidence that poor in-service and quality of supply emissions contributed to surge arrester failures in this network. PSB, PSAT and ATP simulation tools were found adequate in modelling and simulating the EGTN. However the PSB tool was found to be slow as the network expanded and the PSAT required user defined surge arrester models requiring detailed manufacture data sheets which are not readily available. ATP was found to be superior in terms of speed and accuracy in comparison to the PSB and PSAT tools. The MATLAB code proposed by Shavuka et al. [1] was found to be suitable and accurate in assessing transmission networks as EGTN's reliability indices computed from this code were comparable to benchmarked Eskom distribution reliability indices. The work carried out in this research will assist in improving surge arrester performance evaluations, the current surge arrester specification and surge arrester selections. Simulation tools utilized in this work show great potential in achieving this. Reliability studies conducted in this work will assist in standardizing reliability indices between Eskom's transmission and distribution divisions. In-service condition assessment carried out in this work will improve surge arrester condition monitoring and preventive maintenance practices.

Storm induced flooding presents a multifaceted threat to coastal communities across the world.With climate change and sea level rise this danger is expected to increase. As coastal communities become exposed to more frequent and more severe flooding, the need for protective measures will increase. To know how to optimally protect against coastal flooding requires an understanding of future flood risk, storms, and storm surge. These are challenging to estimate due to many sources of uncertainty. In this thesis I present a methodology to forecast this future flood risk. I combine multiple computational, physics and statistical models to accurately describe the fluid dynamics of flooding, the cyclones that drive surge, and how climate change will influence these different components in the future. These computational models must be fast so that they can be embedded into an optimization framework that makes many evaluations. To find an optimal protective measure I employ stochastic and derivative free optimization methods. A complete study is conducted on New York City and optimal protective strategies are found for minimizing the total cost from storm surge subject to different budget constraints.

The objective of this research concerns identifying whether or not there is a relationship between oil price increases in a given quarter and the likelihood of a recession in the subsequent quarter. The data used is gathered from the St. Louis Fed's Fred II, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Energy Information Administration to generate modified variables. These variables are tested using a qualitative dependent variable, recession, in a binary choice model. The findings validated the assumption that oil prices do have a correlation with recessions, and that the relationship is a direct one. Based on the model, an increase in the price of oil will positively affect the likelihood of a "recession" outcome versus the alternative, "no recession". It is anticipated that the results will inspire future research into the causes and effects of oil price surges, as well as the determinants of economic contractions in the future based on policy decisions and economic decision-making practices in the present.

published_or_final_version / abstract / Applied Geosciences / Master / Master of Science

Les surcotes de tempête sont souvent sous-estimées dans les modèles hydrodynamiques, ainsi que les grandes vagues dans les modèles de vagues. Les causes possibles sont une sous-estimation des vents dans les modèles atmosphériques et/ou une formulation incorrecte de la tension de vent. Les objectifs de cette thèse sont (1) d’estimer les biais par vents forts dans les modèles atmosphériques (2) de développer une nouvelle paramétrisation du coefficient de traı̂née permettant de réduire ce biais (3) d’étudier l’impact des vagues sur la tension de vent. La méthode consiste à étudier la réponse de l’atmosphère et de l’océan à la tension de vent. Dans une première partie, nous utilisons le modèle couplé vagues-atmosphère d’ECMWF. Nous montrons que les vents forts sont sous-estimés, avec un biais de l’ordre de -7 m/s à 30 m/s. Des écarts significatifs existent aussi entre les observations, les bouées et les vents issus de ASCAT-KNMI étant généralement inférieurs à ceux des plateformes et des autres données satellites utilisées dans cette étude (AMSR2, ASCAT-RSS, WindSat, SMOS et JASON-2). La nouvelle paramétrisation développée permet d’obtenir des vents plus forts qu’avec celle d’ECMWF par défaut. Dans une deuxième partie (réponse de l’océan), nous utilisons le modèle global océanique TUGO du LEGOS forcé par le modèle couplé vagues-atmosphère d’ECMWF. Nous montrons qu’une paramétrisation de la tension de vent dépendant des vagues plutôt que du vent est plus appropriée quand l’état de mer est jeune. Elle conduit à des surcotes plus proches des observations (marégraphes et traces altimétriques de JASON-2). L’impact des vagues sur la surcote est significatif, et peut atteindre 20 cm. / Storm surges may be underestimated in hydrodynamic models, as well as large wave heights in wave models. This could come from an underestimation of strong winds in atmospheric models and/or an inappropriate wind stress formulation. The objectives of the present work are (1) to estimate how strong are the biases for high winds in atmospheric models (2) to develop a new drag parameterization that could reduce this bias (3) to investigate the impact of the waves on the wind stress. The method consists of studying the response of the atmosphere and the ocean to the wind stress.In a first part, we use the coupled wave-atmosphere model from ECMWF. We show that strong winds may be underestimated, as much as -7 m/s at 30 m/s.Significant differences also exist between observations, with buoys and ASCAT-KNMI generally showing lower wind speeds than the platforms and other remote-sensing data used in this study(AMSR2, ASCAT-RSS, WindSat, SMOS and JASON-2).The newly empirically adjusted Charnock parameterization leads to higher winds compared to the default ECMWF parameterization. In a second part, we use the global ocean model TUGO fromLEGOS forced with ECMWF coupled wave-atmopshere model. We show that a wave-dependent rather than wind-dependent stress formulation is more appropriate, when the sea state is young and the sea rougher. It yields to simulated surges closer to observations (i.e. tide gauges and JASON-2 altimeter tracks). The wave impact on the surges is significant, and may reach 20 cm.

When the effects of wind and air pressure combine with a high tide to give unusually high water levels this can lead to severe coastal flooding. This happened in England in early 1953 when 307 people died in the East Coast Flood. In Britain today such events, now called storm surges, are forecast daily using computer models from the National Oceanographic Centre in Liverpool, formerly the Liverpool Tidal Institute (TI). In 1919, when TI was established, such events were considered unpredictable. TI's researchers, Joseph Proudman (1888-1975), Arthur Doodson (1890-1968), Robert Henry Corkan (1906-1952) and Jack Rossiter (1919-1972), did much mathematical work to attempt to change this. In 1959 Rossiter published a set of statistical formulae to forecast storm surges on the East Coast and a national warning system was predicting such events using these formulae. At this point TI believed they had made surges at least as predictable as they could with their existing methods. This thesis provides a narrative of how this perceived rise in the predictability of surges happened, analysing how TI worked to achieve it between 1919 and 1959 by following two interwoven, contingent and contested threads: practices of calculation and patronage. A key aspect of this thesis is the attention I pay to material practices of calculation: the methods, technologies and management practices TI's researchers used in their mathematical work on storm surge forecasting. This is the first study by historians of oceanography or meteorology that pays this detailed level of attention to such practices in the construction of forecasting formulae. As well as using published accounts, I analyse statistical research in the making, through notes, calculations, graphs and tables produced by TI's researchers. They used particular practices of calculation to construct storm surges as calculable and predictable scientific objects of a specific kind. First they defined storm surges as the residuals derived from subtracting tidal predictions from observations. They then decided to use multiple regression, correlating their residuals with pressure gradients, to make surges predictable. By considering TI's practices of calculation the thesis adds to the literature on mathematical research as embodied and material, showing how particular practices were used to make a specific phenomenon predictable. I combine this attention to mathematical practice with analysis of why TI's researchers did this work. US historians have emphasised naval patronage of physical oceanography in this period but there is very little secondary literature for the British case. The thesis provides a British case study of patronage of physical oceanography, emphasising the influence on TI's work not only of naval patronage but also of local government, civil state and industrial patronage. Before TI's establishment Proudman argued that it should research storm surges to improve the Laplacian theory of tides. However, when the new Institute received patronage from the local shipping industry this changed and the work on forecasting surges was initially done as part of a project to improve the accuracy of tidal predictions, earning TI further patronage from the local shipping industry. After a flooding event in 1928 the reasons for the work and the patronage again shifted. Between then and 1959 TI did this work on commission from various patrons, including local government, civil state and military actors, which connected their patronage to national debates about state involvement in flood defence. To understand why TI's researchers worked on forecasting surges I analyse this complex mix of patrons and motivations. I argue that such complex patronage patterns could be fruitfully explored by other historians to further existing debates on the patronage of oceanography.

A topology-based approach has been used to measure the resilience of a highway network to climatic events. Civil infrastructure systems are inarguably critical to the everyday functions of society. Because such systems are regionally distributed, their components undergo a wide range of hazard intensities, often dependent on their relative locations. The ability of an infrastructure system to withstand, adapt to, and rapidly recover from extreme events is paramount to its ability to continuously serve users. The topological properties of a network can provide a good means to assess the resilience of the system which is adequate to comprehend the preparedness and functionality of an infrastructure system in the face of various hazards. Hurricanes and storm surges are especially relevant on the eastern coast of the US, where they can cause widespread damage and destruction. Furthermore, the effects of climate change are proven to increase the intensity of climatic events, worsening the consequences to infrastructure networks. The vulnerability of the transportation network of New York City, the most populous urban area in the U.S., was underlined in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, and for this purpose has been chosen as the test bed for this study. Reducing the highway system to a combination of nodes and links, the principles of graph theory are applied to quantify defining network properties. More specifically, by assessing and measuring the change in topological properties during extreme climatic events, the resilience of a transportation network can be succinctly evaluated.

No description available.

<p>Denna rapport ger förslag på olika metoder att automatiskt justera flytläget på en statiskt förankrad boj, en överblick över de processer som styr ändringen av vattennivån och en statisktisk analys på vattennivåförändringarna vid Stockholm, Kungsholmsfort och Kungsvik.</p><p>Beroende på vattenivåns variation finns olika metoder för justering. Områden med små variationer av vattennivå lämpar det sig bäst utan någon som helst justering av flytläget. Områden med inte för stora tidvattensförändringar bör justeras med ett system bestående av vinsch, växellåda med en utväxling på 10 000:1, en 12 V DC motor, ett skötselfritt 12 V batteri, en luftlindad linjärgenerator och en trådtöjningsgivare. Områden med stora variationer i tidvatten behöver en avlastning för motorn i form av en fjäder och dämpare. De monteras horizontellt inuti bojen för att skyddas från den yttre miljön.</p><p>Den statistiska analysen påvisade de största vattennivåändringarna vid både Kungsviks och Kungsholmsforts mätstationer, båda uppvisade ett intervall på 1,6 m mellan minimum och maximum. Kungsvik var den station med de största dagliga variationerna, detta på grund av tidvattnets påverkan i området.</p> / <p>This thesis gives examples of different methods of automated adjustment of floatation level for a static moored buoy, an overview of the theories behind water level change and a statistical analysis of the water level changes for Stockholm, Kungsholmsfort and Kungsvik.</p><p>Depending on the range and frequency of the water level change different methods of adjustment are recommended. For areas with small changes in sea level the best choice would be no adjustment of the floatation level. Areas that are influenced by moderate tidal ranges should incorporate a system of regulation consisting of a winch, gearbox with a gear ratio of around 10,000:1, 12 V DC motor, 12 V maintenance free battery, air coiled linear generator and a strain gauge. For areas with large tidal ranges the previous system should be complimented with a horizontally mounted spring, inside the buoy, to lessen the loads on the motor.</p><p>The statistical analysis found the largest extremes in water level of the three sites to be at Kungsvik and Kungsholmsfort, both exhibiting a range of almost 1.6 m. Kungsvik was the station with the largest daily variations, this is because this is the only station influenced by tidal variations.</p>