A statistical downscaling technique is employed to link atmospheric circulation produced by climate models at the large-scale to precipitation recorded at individual weather stations on Vancouver Island. Relationships between the different spatial scales are established with synoptic typing, coupled with non-homogeneous Markov models to simulate precipitation intensity and occurrence in historical and future periods. Types are generated through a clustering algorithm which processes daily precipitation observations recorded by Environment Canada weather stations spanning 1971 to 2000. Large-scale atmospheric circulation data is taken from an ensemble of climate model projections made under the IPCC AR4 SRES A2 scenario through the end of the 21st century. Atmospheric predictors used to influence the Markov model are derived from two versions of the data: Averages of model grid cells selected by correlation maps of circulation and precipitation data; a new approach involving Common Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) calculated from model output over the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Circulation-based predictors capture the role of sea level pressure (SLP), and winds in influencing coastal precipitation over Vancouver Island. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the projected differences are dependent on the predictors used. Projections for 2081 to 2100 made using common EOFs result in most stations reporting no statistically significant change compared to the baseline period (1971 to 2000) in both seasons. Projections using averaged grid cells find winter season (Nov-Feb) precipitation anomalies produce values that are modestly positive, with typical gains of 6.5% in average precipitation, typical increases of 7.5% rising up to 15% in extreme precipitation, and little spatial dependence. In contrast, average and extreme summer precipitation intensity (Jun-Sep) declines negligibly at most island weather stations with the exception of those on the southern and western sections, which experience reductions of up to 20% relative to the latter thirty years of the twentieth century. Precipitation occurrence decreases slightly in both seasons at all stations with declines in the total days with measurable precipitation ranging from 2% to 8% with reductions also seen in the length of extended periods of precipitation in both seasons.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-03T12:19:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ma1a145.pdf: 1856786 bytes, checksum: ddcffb826ac74f4719db5da637f6e2c5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-10-20 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / This research is about Memory and Identity in the Synoptic Gospels, in the view of Mk 2.23-28, Mt 12.1-8 and Lk 6.1-5, that read the conflict between Jesus and the Pharisees, about Plucking of the Grain on the Sabbath. We try the demonstrate that the Gospels narratives are indiciary of the communities identity that generate them, in the Greek-roman World, that orality and textuality has the same influence. Therefore, will study the colletive memory as oral tradition formative, as well the orality and textuality relation in Synoptic Gospels narratives and memories. The choice of the pericope is justified by the texts indicate a identity linked to Judaic culture, in that the Sabbath was a most important identity symbol of the Judaism of 1th Century. In this way the Protochristians communities has arguments to defend of accusations and in the same time define boundaries to insert their place in relation to other intrajudaic groups. Finally, in the elaboration of this document, each community choice a specific literary genre, closer to text purpose. In this way is possible identify which Gospel is closer to Judaic environment and which them is so far. In their narratives, the Evangelists want affirm whom is Jesus to the community as well, establishing his messianic identity. In the specific pericope, the most important logia is that affirm Jesus Son of Man as Lord of the Sabbath. Jesus assumes the community prototype, while the Pharisees, Jesus opponents, assume the role of their that dont have any concerned about the neighbor, try the justify themselves by the strict observance of the mosaic Law. / Esta pesquisa versa sobre memória e identidade nos Evangelhos Sinóticos, à luz de Mc 2.23-28, Mt 12.1-8 e Lc 6.1-5, que trata do conflito entre Jesus e os fariseus sobre pegar espigas num campo em dia de Sábado. Procura-se demonstrar que as narrativas dos evangelhos são indiciárias da identidade das comunidades que as geraram, no mundo greco-romano, onde oralidade e textualidade tinham a mesma influência. Para tanto, será estudada a memória coletiva como formadora da tradição oral, bem como da relação entre oralidade e textualidade nas narrativas e memórias dos Evangelhos Sinóticos. A escolha da perícope se justifica pelos textos indicarem uma identidade vinculada à cultura judaica, onde o Sábado era um dos marcos identitários mais importantes dos judaísmos do séc. 1 d.C. Desse modo as comunidades protocristãs tinham argumentos para se defender de acusações e ao mesmo tempo estabelecer fronteiras para definir o seu lugar em relação aos demais grupos intrajudaicos. Por fim, na elaboração de seu documento, cada comunidade optou por um gênero literário específico, mais adequado ao objetivo de seu texto. Torna-se possível, desse modo, identificar qual Evangelho está mais vinculado ao ambiente judaico e qual deles está mais distante. Em suas narrativas, os evangelistas desejam afirmar também quem é Jesus para a comunidade, estabelecendo assim sua identidade messiânica. Na perícope em questão, o dito mais importante é o que afirma que Jesus o Filho do Homem - é Senhor do Sábado. Jesus passa a ser o protótipo da comunidade, enquanto os fariseus, adversários de Jesus, passam a representar aqueles não tem qualquer preocupação com o próximo, tentando se justificar pela observância rigorosa da Lei mosaica.

Submitted by Emanuel Varela Cardoso (emanuel.varela@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-05-15T19:11:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 JAQUELINE NUBIA DE QUEIROZ – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2015.pdf: 2713076 bytes, checksum: bbd090a4319e80a949989a3402b826d7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-15T19:11:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JAQUELINE NUBIA DE QUEIROZ – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2015.pdf: 2713076 bytes, checksum: bbd090a4319e80a949989a3402b826d7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-12 / Áreas urbanas densamente povoadas situadas na região tropical são particularmente vulneráveis a eventos de chuva intensa. Na cidade de Salvador, capital do Estado da Bahia, vários fatores contribuem para a gravidade dos impactos causados por chuvas intensas: o relevo acidentado, a densidade populacional, a ocupação desordenada do solo, a diversidade e intensidade dos sistemas meteorológicos, dentre outros. Neste estudo as condições de estabilidade da atmosfera no mês (muito chuvoso) de abril de 2009 foram analisadas com o objetivo principal de investigar o grau de relação entre índices de estabilidade e a ocorrência de chuva na cidade. Dados de reanálise, imagens realçadas de satélite meteorológico, totais diários de precipitação e sondagens diárias de ar superior realizadas às 1200 UTC constituem a base de dados deste estudo. Métodos de análise meteorológica e análise multivariada são utilizados. No mês de estudo há dezessete dias com registro de precipitação, dos quais quatro com totais diários que ultrapassam 50 mm. Um evento que provocou chuva intensa em toda a cidade, cujo total pluviométrico é registrado no dia 19, é causado por uma linha convectiva que se forma sobre o Estado da Bahia, na latitude de Salvador, associada a um cavado frontal com forte cisalhamento horizontal e vertical do vento. O teor de umidade é elevado na baixa troposfera, antes e depois do evento. A aplicação da análise de componentes principais a nove índices de estabilidade resulta em um modelo de três componentes que explica 91,82% da variância total dos dados. A primeira componente é associada aos índices relacionados à variação vertical de umidade e temperatura, direção e velocidade do vento, a segunda componente aos índices relacionados à variação vertical de umidade, e a terceira componente ao índice K. A aplicação da análise de agrupamentos aos fatores rotacionados resulta em quatro grupos com características distintas. O Grupo 1 reúne dias com registro de chuva, dos quais três com eventos de chuva intensa. O Grupo 2 separa dias opostos sob o ponto de vista da precipitação. O Grupo 3 é constituído por dias com totais de precipitação muito baixos. No Grupo 4 estão dias com pouca ou nenhuma precipitação registrada, com exceção de um dia de chuva intensa. O índice K é o melhor na previsão de chuva no mês de estudo. / Heavily populated urban areas located in the tropical region are particularly vulnerable to intense rainfall events. In the city of Salvador, capital of Bahia State, several factors contribute for the severity of the impacts caused by intense rainfall: the complex topography, the population density, the disorderly human occupation, the diversity and intensity of meteorological systems, among others. In this study the atmospheric stability conditions in the (very rainy) month of April 2009 are analyzed with the main objective of investigating the degree of relationship between stability indices and rainfall occurrence in the city. Reanalysis data, enhanced meteorological satellite imagery, daily 24-hour rainfall totals and 1200 UTC daily upper air soundings are the basis for this study. Meteorological and multivariate analysis techniques are used. There are seventeen rainy days in the month of study among which four have daily rainfall totals higher than 50 mm. One event of heavy rainfall over the entire city whose rainfall total is registered on day 19, is caused by a convective line that forms over Bahia State, on the latitude of Salvador, associated to a frontal trough with strong horizontal and vertical wind shear. Moisture content is high in the lower troposphere, before and after the event. The application of principal component analysis to nine stability indices results in a three component model which explains 91.82% of the total variance in the data. The first principal component is associated with indices related to the vertical variation of moisture and temperature, wind direction and speed, the second component to the indices related to the vertical variation of moisture, and the third component to the K index. The application of cluster analysis to the rotated factors results in four groups with distinct characteristics. Group 1 has days with rain, among which there are three intense rainfall events. Group 2 has days with opposing characteristics in terms of precipitation. Group 3 is comprised by days with very low rainfall values. Group 4 has days with low rainfall total or rainfall absence, with exception of one intense rainfall day. The K index is the best in forecasting rainfall in the month of study.

This study is an analysis of a three-phase study with twelve professional scientists and non-scientists (Phase One), one-hundred and twenty-three science and non-science university students (Phase Two) and thirty secondary school girls (Phase Three), to illustrate their ‘science lives’. I have used identity theories and transformational learning theory (TLT) to illustrate transformation or movement of learners towards, or away from, science. The understanding of these models and theories have led me to design a theoretical model of science identity (Sci-ID) that represents the global forces (GF) experienced by learners, the social agencies and agents (SA) that embody those forces, the transformational learning (TL) experiences (events, triggers and interventions) that shape personal meaning, and the inclinations and individual internal agency (IIA) that impact upon individuals’ subject and career choices. I have adopted semi-structured ‘narrative’ styled interviews, a descriptive questionnaire and science ‘intervention evaluation’ approaches from the three cohorts. The data generated has been analysed in several ways, including the use of synoptic analysis to construct individual stories about the participants, in third-person voice, from their responses. These stories and the broader, aggregated, thematic, outcomes have been used to examine the Sci-ID model. These outcomes stress three main themes related to the study (or not) of science, that include (i) progressive transformational learning and smooth transformation, (ii) progressive transformational learning and wavering transformation and (iii) reconstructive transformational learning and wavering transformation. These themes indicates that people in life accept and reject certain TL experiences that either ‘go with their IIA’ or ‘go against it’. The majority find their way, choose and select TL experiences exhibiting small or medium movement towards or away from science. However, very few people exhibit large movement accompanied by regressive TL experiences. This study also reveals the existence of two very broad kinds of people (i) people who demonstrate stable pro-science or anti science and (ii) ‘fluid’ people who populate the centre-ground between pro-science and anti-science people. The fluid group caught my attention because their IIA shows greater ambivalence and the impact of GF, SA, incorporating events, triggers and interventions appear to have more impact than on those with a more stable science identity. Therefore, through six science education-based interventions I was able to work with – and influence - more ‘fluid’ kinds of secondary school girls. I used a number of mini-transformative experiences that led them to gain appreciation of science-based education and possible future science careers.

This study investigates how well the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) simulates the sea breeze from False Bay (False Bay sea breeze) at a small resolution of 200m. It describes the influence of the sea breeze in the Stellenbosch wine growing district focusing on temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and direction through three case studies, using three different synoptic conditions. The RAMS simulations are verified against measurements done by automatic weather stations in the study area for all three case studies. The first synoptic condition investigated is when light onshore flow occurred over the south-western Cape. The RAMS model simulated the vertical and horizontal structure of the sea breeze from False Bay very well. However RAMS predicted the onset of the sea breeze 3 hours earlier than the AWS data predicted. The flow was off-shore in the second case study. The RAMS simulations as well as the observed data from the automatic weather stations, showed the two sea breezes influencing the study area, one from Table Bay, west of Stellenbosch, and one from False Bay. In this case study the model simulated the flatter head and stronger False Bay sea breeze. The third case study investigated the influence of strong onshore synoptic conditions, in which the model and observed values showed that no sea breeze developed from False Bay. From the three case studies it was found that the sea breeze is influenced by the synoptic flow and that the sea breeze causes cooling of between 3°C and 16°C and relative humidity (RH) increase of between 16 – 57% depending on the synoptic flow. RAMS was able to simulate the sea breeze theoretically correct and has the potential to be used to identify climatological areas in the wine growing areas of the Western Cape. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology / Unrestricted

Mariepskop (direct translation: “Marieps hill”) forms part of the northernmost edge of the Drakensberg Mountain range in the east of South Africa, and is known for its complex topography associated with meso-scale atmospheric circulation, and therefore its numerous climatic zones. As a result the mountain hosts a high degree of biodiversity. The peak of Mariepskop lies at approximately 1900m Above Mean Sea Level (AMSL), which is higher than the surrounding escarpment to the east bordering the Highveld. Its foothills also extend well into the Lowveld at about 700m AMSL. Mariepskop is therefore ideal for studying airflow exchange between the industrialized Highveld and the Lowveld with its diversity of natural resources. It is also ideal for detecting global warming signals on altitudinal gradients extending from the Lowveld to altitudes above the Highveld escarpment. In this study, long-term National Centre for Atmospheric Research / National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCAR/NCEP) reanalysis wind data at two atmospheric pressure levels (850hPa and 700hPa), as well as reanalysis near-surface temperature data, were obtained for the Mariepskop region for the austral summer (and winter) seasons. The data was used to force a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model (also known as STAR-CCM+) across its lateral boundaries with the dominant synoptic flow in order to generate mesoscale simulation output over the complex terrain of Mariepskop. Wind speed and direction modelled results were then correlated to observations measured by three weather stations on Mariepskop. Modelled wind flow results for the summer simulation were also validated against aerial photographs in order to infer whether the model could accurately capture areas with high rainfall, which are related to denser vegetation. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / gm2014 / Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology / unrestricted

The diploma thesis deals with the topic of rapid day-to-day drops of air temperature. The research part of the thesis is focused on physical-geographical factors that affect the air temperature. Furthermore, the most common methods used to detect interdiurnal changes in air temperature are presented. Abrupt drops in air temperature were detected on the basis of the maximum and minimum daily air temperature at a total of 33 meteorological stations for the period from 1st January 1970 to 31st December 2019. The aim was to describe the regularities of the distribution of extreme drops in air temperature in both temperature characteristics, and to describe the influence of different physical-geographical conditions on the magnitude and seasonality of decline events. The thesis also describes the influence of the prevailing weather situation (according to HMÚ typing) on extreme decreases in both temperature characteristics. It was proved that the shape of the relief has a significant effect on the seasonality of decreases, especially the minimum air temperatures. Stations on convex relief are characterized by a more balanced distribution of these events during the year, while at stations on concave relief there are the largest decreases in the minimum air temperature, especially in winter. The influence...

The objective of this study is to investigate how the authors of the Gospel of Luke and the Gospel of Mark use understandings of masculinities when portraying the character of Jesus. The study presents a survey of Greco-Roman hegemonic masculinity, with a focus on the free male’s relation to children, celibacy, bodies, good character and the household. The analysis of the gospel narratives focuses on two themes. The first one is how Jesus’ relation to his household was portrayed in masculine terms. The second theme is how Jesus uses children as an example for adult men. The study shows that it is reasonable to suggest that Jesus is described in the narratives as someone who had a complex relationship to the standards of Greco-Roman hegemonic masculinity. Jesus is sometimes portrayed as an odd man with low masculine status and sometimes portrayed as a man with honor and high masculinity. The question about Jesus’ masculinity depends on the characters’ ability to perceive Jesus’ theological standpoints in the textual world. If they understand Jesus’ theological standpoints they think of Jesus as a man with high masculine status. But if they don’t understand Jesus’ theological standpoints they think of Jesus as a man with low masculine status.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, 1982. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography: leaves 159-163. / by Brian Bennett Reinhold. / Ph.D.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, 1982. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Vita. / Bibliography: leaves 218-225. / by Randall M. Dole. / Ph.D.