System Dynamics has been applied to various fields in the natural and social sciences. There still remain countless problems and issues where understanding is lacking and the dominant theories are event-oriented rather than dynamic in nature. One such research area is the application of the traditional systems engineering process in new technology development. The Navy has been experiencing large cost overruns in projects dealing with the implementation of new technologies on complex ship systems. We believe that there is a lack of understanding of the dynamic nature of the technology development process undertaken by aircraft-carrier builders and planners. Our research effort is to better understand the dynamics prevalent in the new technology development process and we use a dynamic modeling technique, namely, System Dynamics in our study. We provide a comprehensive knowledge elicitation process in which members from the Newport News Shipbuilding, the Naval Sea Command Cost Estimating Group, and the Virginia Tech System Performance Laboratory take part in a group model building exercise. We build a System Dynamics model based on the information and data obtained from the experts. Our investigation of the dynamics yields two dominant behaviors that characterize the technology development process. These two dynamic behaviors are damped oscillation and goal seeking. Furthermore, we propose and investigate four dynamic hypotheses in the system. For the current structure of the model, we see that an increase in the complexity of new technologies leads to an increase in the total costs, whereas a increase in the technology maturity leads to a decrease in the total costs in the technology development process. Another interesting insight is that an increase in training leads to a decrease in total costs. / Master of Science

The overall goal of this study was to better understand how the academic system affects change in instructional practices, referred to as instructional change, in engineering education. To accomplish this goal, and acknowledging the complex nature of academia, I used a technique designed to understand complex systems called System Dynamics Modeling. With such technique, I created a conceptual System Dynamics Model (SDM) that illustrates how the factors in the academic system interact dynamically to drive or hinder faculty motivation to adopt Research-based Instructional Strategies (RBIS) in their courses. The creation of this model followed a process that combined research literature with data gathered from 17 professors at an Engineering Department in another country. The model was constructed through an iterative process of systematically reviewing the literature, gather empirical data and creating Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD). The CLD are representations of the different causal relationships between elements in a system which ultimately create what we called virtuous or vicious (reinforcing) cycles and balancing cycles. The whole idea was not to find the causes for professors' motivation to change but how the factors in the academic system reinforce or limit such motivation. With this model I offered a different answer to the calls for change in engineering education toward increasing the pedagogical quality of our learning environments. My biggest argument is that previous instructional change initiatives have yielded low to moderate success, because effective instructional change would require a perspective that accounts for the complex nature of academia. With this study I am providing a different understanding of instructional change by using a system perspective that shows the interactions of elements within a complex system that ultimately influences faculty to adopt RBIS in their courses. / Doctor of Philosophy / The overall goal of this study was to better understand how the academic system affects change in instructional practices, referred to as instructional change, in engineering education. To accomplish this goal, and acknowledging the complex nature of academia, I used a technique designed to understand complex systems called System Dynamics Modeling. With such technique, I created a conceptual System Dynamics Model (SDM) that illustrates how the factors in the academic system interact dynamically to drive or hinder faculty motivation to adopt Research-based Instructional Strategies (RBIS) in their courses. The creation of this model followed a process that combined research literature with data gathered from 17 professors at an Engineering Department in another country. The model was constructed through an iterative process of systematically reviewing the literature, gather empirical data and creating Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD). The CLD are representations of the different causal relationships between elements in a system which ultimately create what we called virtuous or vicious (reinforcing) cycles and balancing cycles. The whole idea was not to find the causes for professors’ motivation to change but how the factors in the academic system reinforce or limit such motivation. With this model I offered a different answer to the calls for change in engineering education toward increasing the pedagogical quality of our learning environments. My biggest argument is that previous instructional change initiatives have yielded low to moderate success, because effective instructional change would require a perspective that accounts for the complex nature of academia. With this study I am providing a different understanding of instructional change by using a system perspective that shows the interactions of elements within a complex system that ultimately influences faculty to adopt RBIS in their courses.

Environmental sustainability has become important considering limited natural resources and an ever increasing consumption. Sustainability assessment is a complex procedure which is used to quantify and measure sustainability of a system. It needs to be performed in an organized and coherent manner to avoid unintended negative consequences. A systems-level, overarching, integrated model coupled with underlying process models would provide structure to sustainability assessment of coupled systems, thereby making the procedure more effective. The first objective of the study is to illustrate such a systems-level, overarching, framework using a simple, idealized, hypothetical model of a watershed as an example. The essential elements of underlying process models are utilized in building a simple, System Dynamics (SD) model, which is integrated at the overarching level. Orientors and indicators are used to assess sustainability. Two additional scenarios are modeled in order to improve system sustainability: technological advancement by implementing a rainwater use policy in the existing watershed model; and human behavior modification by coupling a social model with the existing watershed model. This demonstrates the effectiveness of the System Dynamics modeling approach in integration of multiple, varied systems. The second and ultimate objective of this study is to propose a generic framework for the overarching, systems-level model, providing a definite structure but allowing others to define their own model elements and relationships. This would enable more effective sustainability assessment of coupled complex systems. / Master of Science

Vehicle following and its effects on traffic flow has been an active area of research. Human Driving involves reaction, delays, and human errors that has adverse effects on traffic flow . We can eliminate human errors by introducing a computer control system. The purpose of this research was to develop and evaluate a control law and a simulation tool for the study of automatic vehicle headway control. This research considers longitudinal control of a platoon of vehicles on automated highways. A new way of designing control law for vehicle following is presented by introducing safe boundary concept - the trail vehicle should never exceed the maximum safe velocity and at the same time keeps the passengers comfort when accelerating or decelerating except under emergency circumstances. After finding the safe boundary, we design the automatic control law and then using our simulation tool to simulate its performance, adjust parameters until we reach a satisfactory result. System dynamics concept and basic individual vehicle motion laws are used through the research. System dynamics provides a common foundation that can be applied wherever we want to understand and influence how things change through time. We look at the platoon system as a whole and study all the objects, such as vehicle dynamics, road condition, motor dynamics, in this system interact with one another. A third-order nonlinear, Car-following, PID control law is designed using System Dynamics concept. System dynamics' simulation language DYNAMO and Spreadsheet are have been used for our development of a simulation tooL A Satisfactory result is found after the extensive simulation which indicates that the platoon assumptions are achievable using the advanced technologies, like automatic vehicle control, radar, and sensors. / Master of Science

The public sector needs the capacity for continual improvement and innovation. Cybersecurity threats against U.S. federal civilian agencies and national critical infrastructure stand out as a major problem area requiring agile and timely responses. Moreover, curbing ransomware attacks directed towards uniquely vulnerable domains, such as healthcare, education, and local government poses a particularly vexing policy challenge for government leaders. In three discrete essays, this dissertation examines management theories applied to the public sector and cybersecurity. The first two essays investigate a public management approach for improvement and innovation based on dynamic capabilities - that is, the organizational capacity to observe, understand, learn, and react in a transformational manner. The first essay of this dissertation presents a systematic literature review of empirical research on dynamic capabilities in the public sector which indicates clear benefits from the employment of dynamic capabilities through impacts on organizational capabilities, innovation, organizational change, operational performance, and public value. Building upon that literature review, the second essay of this dissertation applies archival data research and first-person interviews to examine the pivotal role played by dynamic capabilities in facilitating the generation and deployment of innovative cybersecurity approaches among the federal civilian agencies. This novel research identified and categorized dynamic capabilities in action and assessed their operational influence, specifically inter- and intra-agency collaboration, strategic planning, governance, and signature processes. The third essay of this dissertation was the first-ever documented system dynamics model of the ransomware ecosystem to understand incident trend patterns and provide insight into policy decisions. Simulation showed improvement by mandating incident reporting, reducing reporting delays, and strengthening passive defenses, but unexpectedly not by capping ransom payments. / Doctor of Philosophy / The public sector needs the capacity for continual improvement and innovation. Cybersecurity threats against U.S. federal civilian agencies and national critical infrastructure stand out as a major problem area requiring agile and timely responses. Moreover, curbing ransomware attacks directed towards uniquely vulnerable domains, such as healthcare, education, and local government poses a particularly vexing policy challenge for government leaders. In three discrete essays, this dissertation examines management theories applied to the public sector and cybersecurity. The first two essays investigate a public management approach for improvement and innovation based on dynamic capabilities - that is, the organizational capacity to observe, understand, learn, and react in a transformational manner. This dissertation first presents a review of prior research on dynamic capabilities in the public sector which indicates clear operational benefits. In the following essay, this dissertation examines the pivotal role played by dynamic capabilities in facilitating the generation and deployment of innovative cybersecurity approaches among the federal civilian agencies. The third essay of this dissertation highlights the simulation of the ransomware ecosystem to better understand incident trend patterns and provide insight into policy decisions such mandatory reporting requirements and defensive measures.

This thesis investigates the reciprocal relationship between migration and development in Senegal. Therewith, it contributes to the debate as to whether migration in developing countries enhances or rather impedes the development process. Even though extensive and controversial discussions can be found in the scientific literature regarding the impact of migration on development, research has scarcely examined the feedback relationships between migration and development. Science however agrees with both the fact that migration affects development as well as that the level of development in a country determines migration behaviour. Thus, both variables are neither dependent nor independent, but endogenous variables influencing each other and producing behavioural pattern that cannot be investigated using a static and unidirectional approach. On account of this, the thesis studies the feedback mechanisms existing between migration and development and the behavioural pattern generated by the high interdependence in order to be able to draw conclusions concerning the impact of changes in migration behaviour on the development process. To explore these research questions, the study applies the computer simulation method ‘System Dynamics’ and amplifies the simulation model for national development planning called ‘Threshold 21’ (T21), representing development processes endogenously and integrating economic, social and environmental aspects, using a structure that portrays the reasons and consequences of migration. The model has been customised to Senegal, being an appropriate representative of the theoretical interesting universe of cases. The comparison of the model generated scenarios - in which the intensity of emigration, the loss and gain of education, the remittances or the level of dependence changes - facilitates the analysis. The present study produces two important results. The first outcome is the development of an integrative framework representing migration and development in an endogenous way and incorporating several aspects of different theories. This model can be used as a starting point for further discussions and improvements and it is a fairly relevant and useful result against the background that migration is not integrated into most of the development planning tools despite its significant impact. The second outcome is the gained insights concerning the feedback relations between migration and development and the impact of changes in migration on development. To give two examples: It could be found that migration impacts development positively, indicated by HDI, but that the dominant behaviour of migration and development is a counteracting behaviour. That means that an increase in emigration leads to an improvement in development, while this in turn causes a decline in emigration, counterbalancing the initial increase. Another insight concerns the discovery that migration causes a decline in education in the short term, but leads to an increase in the long term, after approximately 25 years - a typical worse-before-better behaviour. From these and further observations, important policy implications can be derived for the sending and receiving countries. Hence, by overcoming the unidirectional perspective, this study contributes to an improved understanding of the highly complex relationship between migration and development and their feedback relations. / Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht das wechselseitige Verhältnis zwischen Migration und Entwicklung im Senegal. Damit soll ein Beitrag zu der Debatte geleistet werden, ob Migration in Entwicklungsländern den Entwicklungsprozess eher fördert oder verhindert. Während die Frage nach der Auswirkung von Migration auf Entwicklung in der Literatur ausgiebig und kontrovers diskutiert wird, hat sich die Forschung bisher kaum den Rückkopplungen zwischen Migration und Entwicklung gewidmet, obwohl sich die Wissenschaft sowohl darüber einig ist, dass Migration den Entwicklungsprozess beeinflusst, als auch, dass der Entwicklungsstand eines Land das Migrationsverhalten bestimmt. Folglich sind beide Variablen weder abhängig, noch unabhängige, sondern endogene Variablen, die sich gegenseitig beeinflussen und damit Verhaltensweisen produzieren, deren Erforschung ein statischer, unidirektionaler Ansatz nicht gerecht wird. Deswegen fragt diese Arbeit nach den Rückwirkungsmechanismen, die zwischen Migration und Entwicklung existieren, und nach den Verhaltensweisen, die durch die hohe Interdependenz entstehen, um daraus Rückschlüsse auf die Frage ziehen zu können, welchen Einfluss Änderungen im Migrationsverhalten auf den Entwicklungsprozess haben. Um diese Forschungsfragen zu untersuchen wurde die Computersimulationsmethode System Dynamics genutzt und das Simulationsmodell zur nationalen Entwicklungsplanung, das ‚Threshold 21’ (T21), das die Entwicklungsprozesse endogen darstellt und soziale, ökonomische sowie ökologische Aspekte miteinander verknüpft, um eine Struktur erweitert, welche die Gründe und Konsequenzen von Migration abbildet. Dies wurde an den Senegal, ein angemessener Repräsentant der theoretisch interessanten Grundgesamtheit, angepasst. Der Vergleich der mit dem Modell generierten Szenarien, in denen die Intensität der Abwanderung, des Bildungsverlustes, des Bildungsgewinns, der Geldüberweisungen, oder der Abhängigkeit verändert wurden, ermöglichte die Analyse. Die Studie bringt zwei wichtige Ergebnisse hervor. Erstens entwickelt sie ein umfangreiches Modell, das Migration und Entwicklung endogen erklärt und verschiedene theoretische Ansatzpunkte enthält. Dies kann sowohl als Grundlage für weitere Diskussion und Verbesserungen genutzt werden, ist aber vor allem vor dem Hintergrund, dass Migration in den meisten Modellen zur Entwicklungsplanung trotz des relevanten Einflusses nicht integriert ist, ein wichtiges und nützliches Resultat. Zweitens konnte die Analyse des Verhaltens des Modells wichtige Erkenntnisse bezüglich der Rückwirkungsmechanismen zwischen Migration und Entwicklung und der Wirkung von Veränderungen in Migration auf Entwicklung erzielen. Um zwei Beispiele zu nennen, wurde herausgearbeitet, dass Migration sich positiv auf Entwicklung, gemessen am Human Development Index (HDI), auswirkt, dass es sich aber generell um ein sich ausgleichendes Verhalten handelt, da die positiven Einflüsse auf Entwicklung ihrerseits Migration verringern, wodurch die positiven Einflüsse wieder abnehmen. Ebenso konnte festgestellt werden, dass Migration für das Bildungsniveau zunächst eine Verschlechterung, später aber, nach ca. 25 Jahren, eine Verbesserung nach sich zieht. Aus diesen und weiteren Beobachtungen können wichtige Politikempfehlungen für die Sende- und Empfängerländer von Migration abgeleitet werden. Durch das Überwinden der unidirektionalen Betrachtungsweise trägt diese Arbeit somit zu einem besseren Verständnis des hoch komplexen und von Rückwirkungsmechanismen geprägten Verhältnisses zwischen Migration und Entwicklung bei.

This study is based on Porter¡¦s five forces model of competition. It combines system dynamics theory to make Porter¡¦s five forces model be simulated by dynamic system model and then the strategy can be simulated by computer. With this strategic experiment, the industry analysis or industry strategy can be simulated and experimented just like in the laboratory and make the forecast in the future be achievable. The conclusions of this study are presented as follows: 1.The five forces in Porter¡¦s five forces model can be expressed and quantified by combination of each two forces. 2.The Porter¡¦s five forces model is not strong enough to cope with the dynamic, twinkling and changeful environment. But it can be compensated by system dynamics theory. 3.Combining the system dynamics theory and Porter¡¦s five forces model, the relationship between every two forces can be transformed into cause-and-effect chain. The total forces among five forces can be expressed by system feedback circle. 4.After combination of the system dynamic theory and Porter¡¦s five forces model, we can use the iThink software to simulate the combination. It makes the unquantifiable force change be able to be simulated and forecasted. The conclusions above are significant to the study in the following aspects. 1.The ten forces relationship of Porter¡¦s five forces model can be expressed by cause-and-effect chain in system dynamics theory. 2.The pull-and-push relationship of the ten forces combination in Porter¡¦s five forces model can be expressed by system feedback circle. 3.The mutual and active forces in the system dynamics can be quantified, simulated and forecasted.

In Indonesia, the various mining commodities and the amount of resources and reserves are promising, as evidence there are numerous large-scale mining companies and small-scale mines in operation. In 2014 there were 41 companies that held the CoW (mineral contract of work) and 13 companies active in production; and 76 CCoW (coal contract of work) holders, and 57 companies active in production. As well as this, there are more than a thousand small-scale mining companies active for mining commodities. However, mining commodities provide a resource that is not renewable. This will potentially lead to prolonged problems when mining companies do not adhere to good mining practices, particularly in the closing stages of the mine. Mine closure is the final stage in the process of mining activity. In certain circumstances, closure activities can take a long time and of course can have huge costs. In fact, at this stage, the company is no longer making profit, only incurring costs for the project closure. To prevent problems that may arise after the mine is closed, such as abandoned post-mining land, and the bankruptcy of the company at the end of mining operations, etc., then through specific rules, ie rules of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 18 of 2008, the mining company in Indonesia must provide a certain amount of money as a financial guarantee to finance the planned closure project; it must be approved by the government before entering this phase. However, problems are encountered in practice. The government may become overloaded because they have to quickly make a decision on the closure plan submitted by the company. So a tool is needed that can be used to assess the feasibility as soon as the mine closure plan is proposed by a company, these tools can provide an overview and a variety of options for decision making. In this dissertation methodology was developed to create a systems dynamic model of mine closure. The model developed can be applied to a variety of mining methods and for various mining commodities. The model can be used to determine the closure costs, to choose the closure project-financing scenario, and up to micro and macro economic analysis of mining activities in the region. In the case studies conducted in this dissertation, the best scenario of the mine closure planning is to include the everlasting fund in the form of time deposits, and convert the post-mining land for agriculture. The amount of deposit money is about USD 358,986,500 should be spare at the end of mine production, and the total of mine closure cost to be approximately USD 440,757,384. Agriculture, the economic sector as a substitute for the mining sector, the added value to the GRDP (Gross Regional Domestic Product) is about 0.25 % / a for the province, and 1.68 % for the regency, but the contribution of the mining sector to GRDP was 30% / a at province scale, and 90% / a at regency scale. So that the substitution value is less significant to GRDP growth. However, this scenario is the best scenario among others, due to consideration is the certainty of ecological and economic sustainability. it is the best goal of corporate social responsibility to the environment in the post- mining land.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:50:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TeseWLL.pdf: 1443344 bytes, checksum: c7a60d454aff1d1a92e0c0f63c0688ac (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-06-17 / Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos / This thesis proposes a learning and decision making tool in order to compensate deficiencies related to management activities performed by family farmers managers. The main objective of this thesis is to develop a model of integrated management for family based agriculture. The model integrates different management modules in one shared model. The theoretical structure that supported the research was Family Based Agriculture, Production Systems, Rural Management, Management Systemic Approach, Balanced Scorecard and System Dynamics. The research included an empirical research that supported the diagnostic about the level of management adopted by a group of family based farmers. Based on the diagnostic, it was possible to identify the most important variables in the management process of the rural business. The interdependency of the variables was drawn, resulting in the conceptual model for family based agriculture. Then, this model was translated into a mathematical (operational) language by the means of an adequate methodological tool, resulting in a management simulator. Since different approaches and management tools are included in the simulator, it can be useful for the decision making process regarding business process in family based proprieties. It can also be used by technical assistants, farmers' organization leaders and even financial agents in order to plan, guide and diffuse the business integrated management culture among the farmers and its importance for the satisfactory performance of the productive unit. / Buscando suprir deficiências em atividades de gestão por parte de administradores rurais familiares, essa tese propõe uma ferramenta de aprendizagem e auxílio à tomada de decisão. O objetivo foi desenvolver um modelo de gestão integrada para a agricultura familiar, que integra diferentes módulos de gestão em um único modelo compartilhado. Foram abordados os seguintes marcos teóricos e conceituais: Agricultura Familiar, Sistemas de Produção, Administração Rural, Abordagem Sistêmica da Administração, Balanced Scorecard e Dinâmica de Sistemas. Este trabalho contou com uma pesquisa empírica, que subsidiou a elaboração de um diagnóstico sobre o nível de gestão de um grupo de agricultores familiares. A partir deste diagnóstico, foi possível identificar as variáveis mais relevantes do processo de gestão destes empreendimentos. A interdependência destas variáveis foi, então, desenhada, constituindo-se no modelo conceitual de gestão integrada para a agricultura familiar. Em seguida, tal modelo foi traduzido para uma linguagem matemática (operacional) através de uma ferramenta metodológica adequada, transformando-se em um simulador gerencial. A partir das diversas abordagens e ferramentas de gestão, esse simulador poderá auxiliar o usuário a tomar decisões acerca dos processos de negócio da sua propriedade. Também permitirá à assistência técnica (extensionistas), aos dirigentes de organizações de produtores, e mesmo aos agentes financeiros, planejar, orientar e difundir junto aos produtores uma cultura de gestão integrada da propriedade, e a importância da mesma para o bom desempenho da unidade de produção.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T14:49:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Paulo_Roberto_Vieira_UFG.pdf: 3877896 bytes, checksum: 9acf927220917faa9e16886d4df86fd7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-04-25 / Beans are an important component in the Brazilian diet and various countries across the globe. In Brazil is grown by farmers in various profiles at different scales, regions and farming systems. Brazil has a problem with self-sufficient in beans, historically presented as a major importer of grain, has a low market share in world exports that occurs far from the fact that these markets consume certain types of beans that Brazil has no tradition of produce, the type that is predominantly produced and consumed in Brazil is common bean. The international market beans can be better explored, but is necessary to organize the national production chain. Because of the importance of beans in the Brazilian domestic market, and low expression in exports, we chose to analyze the potential competitiveness of the export chain of brazilian beans. The competitive analysis contemplated the production sector and the export sector, it was developed through 9 drivers and 48 sub-factors that together indicate how is the condition of potential competitiveness of the chain. The evaluation was conducted from the perspective of key players and use of secondary data. Through the data collected it was found that the bean export chain is not currently so structured as other commodities, the production of exportable grain is still insufficient, there are difficulties in finding producers with production that meets the requirements of foreign markets, there are few producers with high production capacity, we observed the presence of active medium and high specificity and the level of informality in the chain is high. The worst drivers in the production sector were on account of the institutional environment, market relations and conditions of the logistics and storage, already in the export sector the driver institutional environment presented negative condition of competitiveness. The computer simulations performed using the events selected by experts showed that the conditions for improvements in the medium term has a greater positive effect on the export sector than in production sector, the negative effect of tax rates affects more than the production sector while technological improvements have multiple positive effects on other indicators. The results indicate that some drivers link that the profits are more concentrated in the export sector and because of the production costs are higher, the condition of competitiveness in production sector is more negative, nevertheless the general condition of competitiveness of the chain is positive and indicates that is interesting to invest in export of beans, though some interventions should be made to improve the indicators of the production sector. / O feijão é um importante componente na dieta do brasileiro e de diversos países pelo globo. No Brasil é cultivado por agricultores de diversos perfis, em diferentes escalas, regiões e por tipos diferentes de sistemas de produção. O Brasil apresenta problemas de auto-suficiência em feijões e historicamente se apresenta como um dos grandes importadores desse grão, tem baixa participação nas exportações mundiais o que ocorre pelo fato de que nesses mercados se consomem determinados tipos de feijões que o Brasil não tem tradição de produzir, entre outros fatores. Além disso, o tipo predominantemente produzido e consumido no Brasil é o feijão carioca que não é um tipo exportável. O mercado internacional de feijões pode ser melhor explorado, desde que o País organize uma cadeia produtiva para esse fim. Devido à importância do feijão no mercado interno brasileiro, e a baixa expressão nas exportações, o objetivo geral da presente pesquisa foi analisar a competitividade potencial da cadeia exportadora de feijões nacional utilizando os conceitos do Commodity System Approach, System Dynamics e métodos advindos dos campos da Economia Industrial e da Nova Economia Institucional. A análise da competitividade contemplou o setor de produção e o setor de exportação e foi desenvolvida por meio de 9 direcionadores e 48 subfatores que em conjunto indicam como está a condição de competitividade potencial da cadeia. A avaliação foi realizada sob a perspectiva de agentes-chave e da utilização de dados secundários. Através dos dados levantados verificou-se que a cadeia exportadora de feijão não se apresenta atualmente estruturada como a de outras commodities. A produção de grãos exportáveis ainda é incipiente, existem dificuldades para encontrar produtores com produção que atenda as exigências dos mercados externos, e existem poucos produtores com capacidade de produção elevada. Além disso, observou-se a presença de ativos de média e alta especificidade e o nível de informalidade ao longo da cadeia é elevado. Os piores direcionadores no setor da produção ficaram por conta do ambiente institucional, das relações de mercado e das condições da logística e armazenagem. Já no setor de exportação somente o direcionador ambiente institucional apresentou-se com condição negativa à competitividade. As simulações computacionais realizadas utilizando os eventos selecionados pelos especialistas mostraram que as condições de melhorias no médio prazo tem um efeito positivo maior no setor de exportação do que no setor de produção. O efeito negativo da tributação afeta mais o setor de produção enquanto melhorias tecnológicas têm efeitos positivos múltiplos sob outros indicadores. Os resultados de alguns direcionadores apontam que os lucros ficam mais concentrados no setor de exportação e por conta dos custos de produção maiores a condição de competitividade no setor de produção é mais negativa. Mesmo assim a condição geral de competitividade da cadeia é positiva e indica que é interessante se investir em exportação de feijões. Entretanto algumas intervenções devem ser feitas para melhorar os indicadores do setor de produção.