Ingeniero Civil Eléctrico / En el mundo financiero, la decisión de compraventa de activos se suele asentar en el análisis fundamental a largo plazo, combinado con análisis técnico a corto plazo; con el objetivo de establecer un momento adecuado para la adquisición y enajenación de activos. En la última década, se ha verificado un crecimiento exponencial en la capacidad de procesamiento y de manejo de bases de datos; siendo la minería de estos vastamente estudiada y aplicada exitosamente en distintos campos, entre los cuales se encuentran las finanzas. En el presente trabajo, se estudia la existencia de estructura con capacidad predictiva en activos financieros, con el fin de anticipar cambios de tendencia y así obtener retornos por sobre el mercado. Para esto, se desarrolla a cabalidad el proceso de extracción de conocimiento de bases de datos, el que considera desde la generación de variables, hasta la obtención de información, a partir de los datos transaccionales de las acciones que componen el Índice de Precios Selectivo de Acciones (IPSA) 2013. En este sentido, es importante precisar que la metodología clásica en la predicción de series de tiempo, se basa en la utilización de precios anteriores para así predecir el precio futuro, utilizando ventanas de tiempo estáticas. En este trabajo se estudia un método nuevo, donde la variable objetivo, en vez de ser retornos en ventanas temporales, son tanto retornos como ventanas dinámicas, extraídas a partir de extensiones no causales de retracciones porcentuales del precio (indicador ZigZag) de las acciones, las que representan mínimos y máximos locales de la serie de tiempo; evitando así sobreajuste temporal y acomodándose a los cambios de ciclo del activo en estudio. Se generan variables independientes a partir de datos de transacciones realizadas por parte de miembros de las compañías (Insiders) e indicadores técnicos tales como cruces, divergencias y zonas de agotamiento a partir de Medias Móviles Convergentes/Divergentes, Índice de fuerza Relativa y Oscilador Estocástico. Se realiza selección de características mediante Forward Selection y Backward Elimination, para encontrar un subconjunto de atributos adecuado y analizar su impacto predictivo. Se aplican algoritmos de aprendizaje supervisado con capacidad de extraer patrones altamente no lineales, destacando Redes Neuronales de Retropropagación, Máquinas de Soporte Vectorial y Métodos Basados en Similitud. Con el fin de determinar el ciclo del mercado al que mejor se ajustan los atributos extraídos y el mejor modelo predictor sobre la base de datos no balanceada, se evalúa la combinación de predicciones de compraventa (anticipaciones de cambio de tendencia) utilizando clasificador Bayesiano ingenuo y operadores lógicos. Finalmente, se realiza una evaluación tanto cualitativa (visual) como cuantitativa (mediante un simulador de inversiones) del comportamiento de las recomendaciones de compraventa; analizando la distribución de retorno, drawdown y tiempo de apertura de las operaciones. De lo anterior puede concluirse que dentro de lo caótico del mercado bursátil, subyace estructura altamente no lineal con poder anticipativo de cambios de tendencia de los activos; la cual se puede atribuir a que, en Chile, el mercado es poco profundo, ilíquido o ineficiente.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump ran highly controversial campaigns in the 2016 Presidential Election, which then leaves us with the question of what impact is this having on the current economy? Prior analysis of political influence on the stock market tells us that isolating political impact on the stock market is nearly impossible. However, there are clearly defined 4-year cycles in stock prices that seem to correspond with election years. In this paper, I create my own index of stocks in the four major U.S. industries and measure both day-to-day and intraday volatility in stock prices across three comparable time periods: the year leading up to the 2016 election, all election years excluding the 2016, and all non-election years. I found that the 2016 election year was significantly less volatile than both prior election years as well as non-election years, suggesting that the 2015-2016 election year was not a closely contested race.

The correlation between stock market returns and changes in bond market yields are of big interest among investors because this indicator helps them allocate their assets and diversify investment risk more effectively. An in- vestor should keep track of development of the economies of individual coun- tries, understand the causes of dissimilarities in the correlations among them and take these differences into account for successful international financial investment. The current author contributes to the existing researches by the modeling of stock-bond market co-movements using the updated datasets with focus on Central European countries and differences in public debt levels. The paper contains the empirical analysis of stock and bond market returns condi- tional correlations, modeled by the use of the Asymmetric Generalized Dynamic Conditional Correlation (AG-DCC) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Het- eroskedasticity (GARCH) specification, for nine Western and Central European countries (the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary) that differ both by their geographic locations and economic development. The main distinctions in the correlations are ob- served during the European sovereign debt crisis. The three types of develop- ment are...

This thesis analyzes the use of realized moments in asset pricing. The analysis is done using dataset containing log-returns for 29 of the most traded stocks and covering 10 years of data. The dataset is split into training set covering 7 years and test set covering 3 years of data. For each of the stocks a separate time series model is estimated. In evaluation of the quality of the models, metrics such as RMSE, MAD, accuracy in forecasting the sign of future returns, and returns achievable by executing trades based on the recommendations from the model are used. Even though the inclusion of realized moments does not provide significant improvements in terms of RMSE, it is found that realized skewness and kurtosis significantly contribute to explaining the returns of individual stocks as they lead to consistent improvements in identifying future positive, as well as negative, returns. Moreover, the recommendations from the models using realized moments can help us achieve significantly higher returns from trading stocks. Inclusion of the interaction terms for variance and returns, skewness and returns, and kurtosis and variance, provides additional improvement of forecasting accuracy, as well as improvements in returns achievable by executing transactions based on recommendations from the model....

The thesis examines herding behavior of investors towards the market average in 10 CEE stock markets during the period 2000-2018. Least squares and quantile regression methods provide evidence of herding inside the majority of the countries. During the global financial crisis and the Eurozone crisis, the herding mentality was more intense only in Slovenia and Croatia. The thesis finds mixed results in asymmetric herding during days of positive and negative market returns. The main finding, and a contribution to the literature, is that the domestic cross-sectional dispersion of returns in the CEE is affected by the dispersion of returns of the foreign stock markets in the USA, the UK, and Germany. In addition, empirical results suggest that extreme market conditions in the U.K. market have an impact on the formation of herding forces within the CEE stock markets. Short-run arbitrageurs can benefit from collective decisions of investors that in turn drive stock prices away from their fair value, but the presence of herding undermines benefits of portfolio diversification. In the long-run, the contagious international effects may result in a severe instability of the whole region and in market inefficiency.

A liquidez do mercado acionário pode ser estudada sob diversas perspectivas. No Brasil, o tema tem sido objeto de investigações econômicas, mas pouco se tem escrito a respeito na literatura jurídica. Esta tese examina, em primeiro lugar, os possíveis significados do termo liquidez; os principais métodos para que se mensure a liquidez do mercado acionário; e as vantagens que um mercado líquido pode propiciar às companhias abertas. Em segundo lugar, a tese apresenta um panorama dos principais fatores que podem estimular a liquidez do mercado acionário, entre os quais figuram o comportamento dos investidores, a microestrutura do mercado e o arcabouço normativo vigente. Em mercados acionários emergentes, também a concentração acionária - entendida como a predominância de companhias em que o poder de controle é exercido majoritariamente - pode ter impactos negativos sobre a liquidez. Nesse contexto, o direito societário desempenha papel importante ao disciplinar potenciais conflitos entre acionistas controladores e acionistas minoritários que tenham repercussões sobre a liquidez das ações. Nesse sentido, a Lei das S.A. e a regulamentação expedida pela Comissão de Valores Mobiliários - CVM instituem mecanismos que visam a proteger acionistas minoritários nas situações em que o exercício do poder de controle pode lhes privar de um pressuposto de liquidez: o acesso ao mercado secundário de valores mobiliários. Essas situações são, em síntese, o cancelamento de registro de companhia aberta; e a realização de reorganizações societárias em que a base acionária de companhia aberta é compelida a migrar para uma companhia fechada. A tese compara os mecanismos aplicáveis a cada hipótese e busca demonstrar (a) as assimetrias existentes entre eles; e (b) de que maneira eles se inserem na estrutura de exercício do poder de controle estabelecida pela Lei das S.A. Além disso, o acionista controlador pode prejudicar a liquidez de mercado das ações ao aumentar sua participação acionária e provocar um estreitamento do mercado. Também para essa situação - conhecida como \"fechamento branco de capital\" - a Lei das S.A. e a regulamentação expedida pela CVM instituíram mecanismos de proteção aos acionistas minoritários. A tese examina os problemas hermenêuticos relacionados a esses mecanismos e questiona sua efetividade - talvez comprometida pelo fato de que, para os fins daqueles mecanismos, a liquidez acionária é mensurada com base em um critério insuficiente (a participação do acionista controlador, considerada abstratamente). Ao final, a tese apresenta possíveis diretivas para a alteração do arcabouço normativo vigente. / The liquidity of the stock market can be studied from different standpoints. In Brazil, this topic has been the subject of investigations in economic theory, but little has been written thereon in legal literature. This thesis examines, in the first place, the possible meanings of the term liquidity; the main methods for measuring the liquidity of stock markets; and the advantages that a liquid market may provide to publicly-traded companies. Secondly, this thesis presents an overview of the main factors that can stimulate stock market liquidity, which may include investors\' behavior, the market microstructure and the legal and regulatory framework. In emerging markets, ownership concentration - understood as the predominance of companies controlled by a majority shareholder - may further negatively impact liquidity. In this context, corporate law plays an important role in providing solutions for potential conflicts that may arise between controlling shareholders and minority shareholders, which may reverberate on the stock liquidity. In this sense, the Brazilian Corporations Law and the regulations issued by the Brazilian Securities Commission provide for protection mechanisms applicable to situations in which the controlling shareholder may deprive minority shareholders of a premise of liquidity: the access to the secondary securities market. These situations are, in brief, the decision to voluntarily deregister as a publicly-traded company; and to carry out merger transactions in which the publicly-traded company\'s shareholders are compelled to migrate to a privately-held company. The thesis compares the protection mechanisms which apply to each of such hypotheses and intends to (a) demonstrate the existing asymmetries between them; and (b) analyze if and how they are compatible with the governing structure set forth by the Brazilian Corporations Law. Furthermore, controlling shareholders may hinder stock market liquidity by increasing its equity stake and causing a narrowing of the market. Likewise for such situation - known in Brazil as \"cold delisting\" - the Brazilian Corporations Law and the regulations issued by the Brazilian Securities Commission instituted remedies for the protection of minority shareholders. The thesis examines the hermeneutical issues concerning such mechanisms and challenges their effectiveness - which is hampered perhaps due to the fact that, for the purposes of such mechanisms, market liquidity is measured by an insufficient criterion (an abstract trigger based on the controlling shareholder\'s ownership stake). Finally, the thesis presents possible directives for the amendment of the existing Brazilian legal framework.

Thesis advisor: Harold A. Petersen / This paper attempts to find the extent of the predictive power of the stock market in relation to consumption, non-residential investment, and corporate profits. Initially, a naïve model is formulated to assess the impact of the stock market on GDP, and then the model is used to find the predictive power of the stock market on the components. This component analysis compares the impact of the market on each of the components and attempts to find reasons for the variations in impact. Finally, the long term predictive power of the various models is assessed. / Thesis (BS) — Boston College, 2005. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program.

Throughout the last century there has been an extensve discussion regarding the optimal capital structure.Excessive research has further been conducted to understand the relationbetween the market debt and equity on an aggregated market-level. However, it is observed that the research on thefirm-specific co-movement of stock and bondsis scarce. Since the last financial crisis,the bond market has especiallyseen a rapid growth. The growthstemsfrom the low interest rate climate togetherwithmore restrictive lending policies from banks. Based on this discussion the purpose of this research is to investigate if Swedish corporationsare making the optimal capital structure decision. This based on a potential co-movement of stocks and bonds. To answer the purpose the research question was therefore: What is therelationship between a corporation’s bond returnand stock return?The scientific method that was used in this research is a quantitative method witha deductive process and a positivistic angle. Because the research uses the whole population that is available, this is a censusstudy. In the population companies that have been active on the stock and the bond market sometime during the period from 2008 to 2018. Although, companies that have been delisted during this period have been excluded. From a population of 75 companies and 1972 observations, two regressions were made due to the inconclusive results regarding the dependency of stock return and bond return. No significant result between the returns was found. However, a significant result between marketcapitalizationand the returns togheter with stock standard deviation and the returns was found. Based on the result, the authors could conclude that there seems to be a demand for the issuance of both stocks and bonds. This follows a discussion regarding the possibility of diversification of the securities based on the modern portfolio theory. Further, the authors can conclude that the theories regardin the irrelevance of capital structure are applicable. Finally,the authors can conclude that the stakeholder theory can explain the value creation in a more appropriate fashion in relation to the result. The authors canthereforeconclude that the debt-equity dilemma still is present and further research within the area is required.

In this research we investigate the relationship between multifactor investing and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and contribute to modern stock market prediction. We present the components for multifactor investing i.e. value, quality, size, low volatility & momentum as well as a methodology for ANN which provides the theory for the results. The return for the multifactor funds tested in this research is recorded below the benchmark used. However, the factors do have a dynamic relationship when testing for correlation and the multifactor regression analysis showed a high explanatory power (R2) for the funds. Based on the methodology of an ANN we establish that it is possible to use the knowledge from multifactor investing to train the technology with. When summarizing peer reviewed journals, we find that momentum have already been recurrently used in previous stock market prediction systems based on ANN, but the remaining factors have not. We conclude that there is an opportunity to use several factors to train an ANN due to their dynamic relationship and unique characteristics.

Mercados financeiros são sistemas complexos com estrutura e comportamento extremamente dependentes das interrelações entre os seus componentes. Em particular, a teoria de redes tem contribuído para caracterizar e compreender o comportamento e as interdependências entre vários componentes do mercado financeiro, em especial, o mercado de ações. Pesquisas nessa área indicam que a estrutura de rede gerada do mercado pode conter informações úteis para um melhor entendimento do mercado como um todo e até mesmo prever a ocorrência de eventos extremos, como, por exemplo, uma crise financeira. Em geral, os estudos consideram apenas dependências lineares entre os objetos da rede baseados no coeficiente de correlação linear de Pearson, e nesse sentido, a proposta deste projeto é a aplicação de conceitos e métodos de teoria de redes e de teoria da informação para caracterizar e explorar o efeito de dependências não lineares na estrutura de rede do mercado brasileiro de ações. Para tal, a informação mútua foi usada como medida de dependência não linear para gerar a estrutura de redes que foi comparada com a obtida a partir da correlação linear de Pearson. Por fim, investigou-se como a estrutura da rede e suas métricas poderiam ajudar a caracterizar e a entender o comportamento dos mercados financeiros, analisando-se dois períodos, o primeiro sob gestão da Presidente Dilma Rousseff, com um retorno do índice de ações de -42%, e o segundo sob gestão do Presidente Michel Temer, com um retorno deste índice de 50%. Para tal fim, foram utilizados dados de alta frequência, sendo uma cotação a cada 15 minutos. Em suma, concluiu-se que os retornos dos ativos no segundo período parecem ter maior dependência não-linear quando comparados aos retornos do período anterior. A rede para este período é a que se mostra mais arriscada em termos de estrutura de \'transmissão de volatilidades\', tanto pela análise do coeficiente de robustez da rede, quanto pela estimativa do parâmetro da lei de potência. Encontrou-se evidência da relação entre estrutura das redes e desempenho das ações. Além disso, vimos a grande importância do setor financeiro nas redes. Finalmente, tecemos comentários quanto a aplicação destas redes para diversos fins. / This paper has the purpose to apply concepts and methods from network and information theory to characterize and to explore the role of nonlinear dependencies over the Brazilian network stock market structure. In particular, the minimum spanning tree network structure generated from the mutual information as a measure of nonlinear dependence was compared with the one obtained by Pearson\'s correlation coefficient. We analyzed two periods, the first under the management of President Dilma Rousseff, with an index return of -42%, and the second one, under the management of President Michel Temer, with an index return of 50%. For this purpose, high frequency data of fifteen minutes interval was used. Our analysis suggest that the assets returns of Temer\'s presidential term seem to have greater nonlinear dependence when compared to the returns of the previous period. Also, the network\'s robustness coefficient and power law parameter suggests that the network for the second period is the most risky in terms of volatility transmission structure. Also, we find evidence of network structure and stock performance relationship. Finally, we have also seen the great importance of financial sector within Brazilian\'s stock network