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This study analyzes the trade war between the United States (US) and China using the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model. Five scenarios focused on economic decoupling are ana- lyzed: 1. Mutual tariff levels increased to 25%, 2. Mutual tariff levels increased to 45%, 3. Bilateral export levels decreased by 25%, 4. Bilateral export levels decreased by 45%, and 5. Trade efficiency decreased by 10%. The analysis shows both the US and China's consumer welfare and GDP decreased across all scenarios, with a larger decrease in China. In addition, when exports from China and the United States decrease, there is an increase in exports from the ASEAN region. JEL Classification C68, F13, F11, Keywords Trade war, CGE, General Equilibrium Title Measuring the Welfare Effects of the US-China Trade War Using a Computable General Equi- librium Model Author's e-mail hehaeunk@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail vilem.semerak@fsv.cuni.cz

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2019-03-11T14:13:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Monique Fernandes Pereira Carvalho_.pdf: 595782 bytes, checksum: b758439f588c08ec068e1341b6dedbf3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2019-03-11T14:13:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Monique Fernandes Pereira Carvalho_.pdf: 595782 bytes, checksum: b758439f588c08ec068e1341b6dedbf3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2019-01-18 / CNPQ – Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / O objetivo da dissertação é examinar os efeitos da guerra comercial entre EUA e China sobre a economia brasileira, com ênfase nos produtos primários. A metodologia empregada foi o modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). Os resultados revelaram que haveria aumento na produção de soja e aço no Brasil e redução nos demais setores. Também haveria déficit na balança comercial em todos os setores, exceto de soja e de aço, e o Brasil seria beneficiado em termos de ganhos de bem-estar, principalmente, em função dos ganhos dos termos de troca. Em nível global, a guerra comercial entre EUA e China resultaria em perda de bem-estar para os países envolvidos diretamente, mas o objetivo principal do governo Trump seria alcançado, aumentando a produção de aço e alumínio, e com a redução, embora pequena, do déficit comercial dos EUA, estimulando a especialização em produtos de alta tecnologia, enquanto estimularia a China a se especializar em produtos de baixa tecnologia. / The objective of the dissertation is to examine the effects of the US-China trade war on the Brazilian economy, with an emphasis on primary products. The methodology used was the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) Computable General Equilibrium model. The results showed that there would be an increase in soybean and steel production in Brazil and a reduction in other sectors. There would also be a trade deficit in all sectors, except for soy and steel, and Brazil would benefit in terms of welfare gains, mainly due to terms of trade gains. At the global level, the trade war between the US and China would result in loss of welfare for the countries directly involved, but the main objective of the Trump government would be achieved by increasing steel and aluminum production and reducing, albeit small, of the US trade deficit by stimulating specialization in high-tech products, while encouraging China to specialize in low-tech products.

By using critical discourse analysis, the purpose of this thesis has been to reveal the hidden power relation behind the discourse on foreign trade policies in the context of the trade war and to examine if grand strategies can be identified in the discourses. The thesis has thus focused on what discourses the national leaders of the United States and China have created and how different words and concepts have been used to form a national strategy on foreign trade policies in the context of the trade war. This thesis has also examined if theories of primacy and neo-neo-isolationism can be found in the discourses produced by the national leaders of China and the United States. The conducted discourse analysis suggests national leaders of China and the United States create discourses to gain an advantage. Where words and concepts were used to strengthen their own position while weakening the other, theories of primacy and neo-neo-isolationism could not be found in the discourses. However, it can be suggested that some parts of the strategies where found.

The start of the trade war between the United States and China in 2018 has changed the stage of international relations. Growing tariffs by both the American and Chinese governments has threatened the stability of international trade and multilateral cooperation. Governments have framed trade deficits between United States and China as cause of this trade war. Could growing trade deficits be the only explanation for rising tensions in trade between the United States and China? This study aims to research the causes of the trade war between the United States and China on other grounds than just growing trade deficits. As two major world economies, the trade war between the United States and China has vast complications for the global economy. Growing geopolitical tensions between the United States and China could spark another cold war for the world as this forces other countries to choose between two spheres of global economic power. Tensions such as trade wars are prone to escalation if the future trade outlook between the United States and China becomes dark. This study gives a deeper insight into the bilateral trade relations between the United States and China and the implications of this relationship for the global economy.

The arrest of Meng Wanzhou and the Huawei prosecution have revealed a mounting battle for high-tech supremacy between the United States and China. The ongoing technology war and the trade war are merely one dimension of a far-reaching and accelerating imperialist rivalry. The changing reality on the world stage has urged a reconsideration of the thesis of transnational capitalist class (TCC) and theory of globalization in general. By reviewing the historical debate between the globalist and critical realist schools, I argue that William Carroll’s theoretical frame of global capitalism grounded in corporate network research through emphasizing a dialectical process of the ‘making’ of the TCC is better equipped to explain the unfolding Sino-U.S. conflict. Following Carroll’s multilayered approach to corporate network research, I conduct a corporate network analysis to examine the directorate interlocks of 40 Chinese transnational corporations (TNCs) selected from the Fortune Global 500 list. My study has found that the transnational networks of Chinese TNCs have remained considerably sparse, contained within condensed national networks. The globalization of Chinese TNCs and Chinese corporate elite has been modest and has not undermined or replaced the national base. This is due to two crucial reasons: the statist character of Chinese capitalist class and the regionalized development of global capitalism and class formation. In concordance with Carroll’s network research of Western companies, my study of corporate China reaffirms the fragility of the TCC, its internal friction, and potential decomposition. It also provides a material ground for analyzing the Sino-U.S. inter-imperialist rivalry as a structural development out of global capitalism and its class relations. My thesis study, therefore, offers the first attempt to draw a direct linkage between corporate network formation and geopolitical conflict. / Graduate

Krisen i den globala leveranskedjan för containrar blev tydligt synlig 2020 och pågår fortfarande. Ett betydande avtryck har lämnats, inte bara på marknaden för containertransporter utan också på världsekonomin som helhet. Det kan därför vara fördelaktigt att få en djupare förståelse för de drivande faktorerna i denna kris för att kunna hantera bättre eller förhindra liknande utmaningar i framtiden. Syftet med denna studie var att identifiera och beskriva en kedja av händelser med deras bidragande faktorer och konsekvenser som leder till att containerkrisen börjar år 2020. Följande forskningsfrågor ställs: 1.Vilka är de mest bidragande faktorerna som störde balansen i containertransporter? 2.Hur påverkas sjöcontainertransporten och vilken roll har den händelsekedjan som resulterade i containerkrisen 2020-202X?  En kvalitativ litteraturgenomgång genomfördes för denna studie. Dessutom bestod den datainsamlingsmetoden som användes för denna studie av sekundärt vetenskapligt material, men även icke-vetenskapliga artiklar, inklusive nyhetsdatabaser och maritima databaser.  Studien identifierade de viktigaste bidragande faktorerna till containerkrisen att vara Covid-19 och Suezkanal incidenten. Vidare föreslås det även att handelskriget mellan Kina och USA har varit en bakomliggande orsak för denna kris. Konsekvenserna som fastställdes var bristen på tomma containrar, förändringar i efterfrågan av varor före och under pandemin och störningar i leveranskedjan där förseningar, överbelastning i hamnar och ekonomiska följder spelade roll i den globala handeln, särskilt containertransporter. / The crisis in the global container supply chain clearly became visible in 2020 and is still ongoing. An imprint has indeed been left not only on the markets of container shipping transport but also on the world economy as a whole. Therefore, it may be beneficial to gain an in-depth understanding of the driving factors of this crisis, that in order to be able to deal better or even prevent similar future challenges. The purpose of this study was therefore to identify and describe a chain of events with their contributing factors and consequences that lead to the start of the container crisis in 2020. This study’s research questions were: 1.What are the most important contributing factors that disrupted the balance in container transport? 2.How is maritime containertransport affected and what is the role of the chain of events that resulted in the container crisis 2020-202X?  A qualitative literature review was conducted for this study. Moreover, the data collection method used for this paper consisted of secondary academic material, but also non-scientific articles, including news databases and maritime databases.  This study has identified that the main contributing factors to the container crisis were the Covid-19 and the Suez channel. However, it is also suggested that the trade war between USA and China has also served as the backbone of this crisis. Moreover, the identified concequences were shortage in containers, changes in the demand of goods during and prior to the pandemic and in further, disruptions in the supply chain, including schedule delays, congestions in ports and financial consequences in the global trade, specifically that of container transport.