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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Effect of exchange rate volatility on capital flows in South Africa

Ng'ambi, Muma January 2015 (has links)
Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2015. / e period 2000:q1 – 2014:q3 in South Africa. In addition, the paper examines the impact that the exchange rate volatility exerts on the different forms of capital flows. Consequently, the aim of the study is to examine whether the volatility in the exchange rate is a significant determinant of foreign investor capital into South African markets as well as to empirically establish the dynamic relationship that can be observed between capital flows and exchange rate volatility. A trade weighted exchange rate was constructed from which the conditional variance GARCH (1,1) model is applied to estimate exchange rate volatility. The findings from the multiple regression analysis reveal that exchange rate volatility has a statistically significant negative impact on the aggregated capital flows to South Africa. Using the bi-variate vector autoregressions (VARs), the Granger-causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition, the results show there is a dynamic interrelationship between exchange rate volatility and the aggregated and disaggregated capital flows. Furthermore, the VAR specifications results reveal that portfolio flows exhibits a strong bi-directional causality with exchange rate volatility as well as explaining a significant percentage of innovations in exchange rate volatility. This suggests that fluctuations in the exchange rate can be explained by portfolio flows into South Africa’s capital markets. The recommendations for authorities resulting from the findings include, a monetary policy that mitigates the rand exchange rate volatility in an effort to attenuate the adverse subduing effects it has on capital flows in South Africa. Further broadening financial instruments and derivatives available for investors to hedge against exchange rate volatility and a meticulous management of portfolio flows is imperative to ensure prevention of its destabilizing effect on the exchange rate.

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