Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: According to Vestergaard and Wade (2012:486), “No financial or bank crisis has ever occurred from something ex-ante perceived as risky”. On the contrary – according to Per Kurowski (2010 in Vestergaard & Wade 2012:486) “they have all resulted, no exceptions, from excessive lending or investment in something perceived as not risky”. BASEL III, also known as the Third BASEL Accord, was developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) as a comprehensive set of measures to strengthen regulation and risk management and, in doing so, to reform the way in which the banking sector operated in the past (International regulatory framework for banks (Basel III), 2014). According to Zerbst (2013), Basel III was introduced as a direct result of the financial crisis that hit the United States and spread throughout the world in 2008. After the financial crisis, the financial world lost confidence in banks in general. This made the regulators wary and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCSB) was formed. They were tasked to investigate how existing regulations could be revised to safeguard banks from landing in a similar situation. Currently, South African banks meet the minimum regulatory capital requirements introduced by Basel III. Capitec and African Bank Investments Limited (ABIL) are two prominent banks in the South African unsecured lending market. These two banks, although they seem alike, do not operate in the same way. They have different funding bases. Furthermore, unlike ABIL, Capitec does not have a furniture and appliance component (African Bank, 2014). This report aims to understand how Capitec and ABIL’s risk models measure up to what Basel III proposes banks use. The analysis in this research report will enable the reader to understand the capital structure of Capitec Ltd and ABIL better. This approach will allow for a better estimation of capital structure within the unsecured banking industry. This research report can further serve as an example of capital risk analysis for other bank executives in South Africa. A further benefit for this research is that it can be used as a case study for lecturers teaching corporate finance at academic institutions.

With the global economy in a crisis, debt levels are at an all-time high. The United States of America’s national debt exceeds $14 trillion and the South African outstanding gross consumer credit book is at R1,39 trillion. This pattern of debt levels is seen worldwide, with various adverse effects on the debtors and the economy in general. Although debt is an important mechanism in the growth of an economy, the amount of debt must be managed. Unsecured debt is a higher risk loan offered to debtors who cannot support the debt through any form of security. Default on this type of debt leaves the creditor with only a few options to recover the debt. It is thus important to understand the reasons for these defaults in order to manage the debtor and the risk associated with these loans. This study investigates the default rate and demographics of unsecured debt defaulters. A large study population is analysed to determine the total default rate and demographics of the defaulting debtors. The aim is to get a better understanding of the risk involved in unsecured debt in order to manage the credit vetting process more efficiently. Factors including loan size, number of loans, geographic distribution, gender and the age of debtors are studied to determine the profile of a typical debt defaulter. This is then compared to the non-defaulting population. The research findings confirm that there are statistically significant correlations between loan size, number of loans, geographic distribution, gender and age and the number of defaults in the population. The practical significance is, however, weak. It further proves that the profile of a defaulting debtors’ book is the same as the initial debtors’ book. A further challenge will be to incorporate affordability and other relevant data to understand the defaulting population and the reasons for default better. / MBA, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

With the global economy in a crisis, debt levels are at an all-time high. The United States of America’s national debt exceeds $14 trillion and the South African outstanding gross consumer credit book is at R1,39 trillion. This pattern of debt levels is seen worldwide, with various adverse effects on the debtors and the economy in general. Although debt is an important mechanism in the growth of an economy, the amount of debt must be managed. Unsecured debt is a higher risk loan offered to debtors who cannot support the debt through any form of security. Default on this type of debt leaves the creditor with only a few options to recover the debt. It is thus important to understand the reasons for these defaults in order to manage the debtor and the risk associated with these loans. This study investigates the default rate and demographics of unsecured debt defaulters. A large study population is analysed to determine the total default rate and demographics of the defaulting debtors. The aim is to get a better understanding of the risk involved in unsecured debt in order to manage the credit vetting process more efficiently. Factors including loan size, number of loans, geographic distribution, gender and the age of debtors are studied to determine the profile of a typical debt defaulter. This is then compared to the non-defaulting population. The research findings confirm that there are statistically significant correlations between loan size, number of loans, geographic distribution, gender and age and the number of defaults in the population. The practical significance is, however, weak. It further proves that the profile of a defaulting debtors’ book is the same as the initial debtors’ book. A further challenge will be to incorporate affordability and other relevant data to understand the defaulting population and the reasons for default better. / MBA, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

Consumption loans has increased considerably during 2010-2019 and thus affected householddebt and financial stability due to high interest rates with short maturity. To investigate thesubject multiple neoclassical models has been used additional to a regression analysis with adequate variables and descriptive diagrams. Mental health has seemingly worsened from 2010and onwards, so we want to investigate whether it’s due to rising debt levels or not. For that we investigate the variables anxiety, depression, and migraine for the mental health parameter. In this thesis we want to analyze whether there is a causal relationship between debt and mentalhealth between 2010 and 2019. The main conclusion is that there are some correlations between debt and mental health for females 25-54 and 55-64 years old. Females 18-25 years old had a negative correlation between debt and mental health. Likewise did males in all age categories. For males 55-64 years old a strong correlation between unemployment and mental health issues was found. No causal relationship between debt and mental health issues can be established inthis paper due to inexplicit correlations.

Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / The literature on real business cycles finds that one reason why emerging economies are more volatile than developed small open economies is that they face greater financial frictions. Indeed, according to several measures of financial depth and access, financial systems in emerging countries are on average less developed than those in developed small open economies. Despite the lag in financial development, private credit, particularly unsecured credit to households, has been steadily increasing during the last two decades in emerging countries in Latin America. During this period of rising credit, various countries in the region observed an increase in the size of their middle income class population and the emergence of the vendor financing channel in their consumption credit market. Estimates by the World Bank suggest that the share of middle class households increased from 20.9 % in 1995 to 40.7 % in 2010. In addition, the share of poor households was approximately halved and reached 23.4 % at the end of this 15 year period. This phenomenon not only increased credit demand but also motivated the entry of new suppliers in the consumer credit market in countries like Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Brazil. In spite of a significant decline in unemployment in recent years, the lack of formal employment and poor credit history were still impeding many individuals from gaining access to consumer finance from traditional financial institutions. In order to enable new middle class shoppers access items typically offered by large retail stores, the retailers themselves started offering credit. In this dissertation, I study the relationship between middle class size, unsecured credit markets and aggregate consumption volatility in emerging countries. In the first chapter of this thesis, we examine the link between middle class size and consumption growth volatility using a sample of middle income countries. In the second chapter, we study the effect of an expansion of the middle class on vendor financing incentives and unsecured credit supply on its extensive margin. In the third chapter, I study business cycle implications of a reduction in the share of financially excluded households in an emerging economy. In the first chapter, I empirically examine the effect of middle income class size on consumption growth volatility in emerging countries. Using a panel data of middle income countries, I find that a larger middle class size tends to increase aggregate consumption growth volatility, particularly at lower levels of financial system depth. Financial development plays a significant role in determining the sign of the marginal effect of middle class size on aggregate volatility. Unlike emerging countries, the effect of the size of the middle class and the role of financial development on consumption volatility in developed countries is ambiguous. The key message of this analysis is that as more households escape poverty thresholds and reach the middle income class status in developing and emerging economies, it becomes more important to deepen financial systems from the perspective of aggregate consumption volatility. In the second chapter, I explore through the lens of a theoretical model, potential reasons triggering an increase in credit supplied by the non traditional financial sector, i.e vendors, at the extensive margin. I find that a reduction in the average risk of default and an increase in the market size of credit customers raise vendor financing incentives. This model rationalizes the observation that the improvement of economic conditions of the low-income and financially constrained households potentially led to increased credit supply by vendors in several countries of Latin America. In the third chapter, I study business cycle implications of a decline in household financial exclusion in a dynamic general equilibrium model suitable for emerging economies. Using Mexico as a case study, I estimate the model with Bayesian methods for the period 1995 to 2014. Standard measures of predictive accuracy suggest that the extended business cycle model with limited credit market participation outperforms a model with zero financial exclusion. The results of the estimation suggest that a rise in credit market participation in an emerging economy increases aggregate volatility of key macroeconomic aggregates, and that financial frictions play a key role in this relationship. I confirm this prediction by re-estimating the model for Mexico after splitting the sample into two non- overlapping decades. A key implication derived in this chapter is that a reduction of financial exclusion within an emerging country may lead to higher consumption growth volatility and trade balance volatility, and that fewer financial frictions dampen the marginal effect. As household financial access increases in these countries, a greater need for improving broad financial development measures arises.

The website, Plastic Jungle, is taking advantage of the rapidly growing gift card phenomena by creating a secondary market that enables consumers to buy, sell, and exchange gift cards online at a discount. This paper examines the relationship between this secondary gift card market and the corporate bankruptcy risk of companies with gift cards listed on the market. When a company issues a gift card, the card is unsecured debt and the cardholder becomes an unsecured creditor to the company. This paper investigates whether the cardholder acts similarly to other unsecured creditors or as someone who is merely holding another form of cash. As was expected, this paper finds evidence indicating the spot price on the gift card is correlated to some forms of bankruptcy risk. Specifically, the gift cardholders act like unsecured creditors in terms of excess stock returns, CDS price, and the idiosyncratic risk of companies.

Controlling shareholders of private firms may define "value of the firm" in terms of personal utility. They may thus prioritize their personal wealth over the firm. Furthermore, agency-based corporate governance may not apply to privately owned firms. This study looked at managers and owners of private firms as potentially risky decision makers. Financial distress was positioned as a boundary to agency theory-based corporate governance for private firms. Choices of shareholders in respect of board composition and the relationship between board composition and external sources of funding were investigated. Influence on turnaround potential, of management who are also shareholders, was also considered. Data from 104 business rescue plans were used for correlation and multiple hierarchical regression analyses. The mean return to secured creditors was 94 % and the mean return to unsecured creditors was 48 %. Unexpectedly a negative correlation between number of directors and free assets was determined. Yet, in the regression model for return to secured creditors, the significant variables were total directors and free assets. It is concluded that personal surety provided by directors may be detrimental to a private firm's free assets. For unsecured creditors, the significant variables were size; management shareholding, and return to secured creditors. The study was conducted between 2011 and 2016 using secondary data drawn from actual business rescue cases. In conclusion, the agency cost of debt construct was refined and an estimate for the agency cost of distressed debt, was presented. Research findings offer improved insight into agency theory for private firms with a foundation for improved corporate governance models. Theorists may use this research to extend understanding of the theory of the firm and corporate governance. Furthermore bankruptcy and turnaround theory may be enhanced by the findings of this research. Practitioners may use the findings to refine credit risk and pricing models. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2017. / Business Management / PhD / Unrestricted

No description available.

The objective of this research is to investigate the existence of structural changes in unsecured lending time series data and analyse the impact thereof on trends in consumer demand for unsecured credit spanning the years from 2008 to 2015. This is achieved by identifying dates when structural changes occurred over this period. The identified structural break date is linked to an influential economic event or monetary policy change that took place in South Africa of which the impact on three unsecured credit categories are analysed. Unsecured credit growth in South Africa has been subjected to intensive scrutiny since the inception of the National Credit Act (Act No. 34 of 2005) by various regulatory bodies. In 2012 the National Credit Regulator (NCR) commissioned a research study into examining the impact that the National Credit Act (Act No. 34 of 2005) has had on the consumer credit market. The empirical part of this study involved the gathering of time series data on unsecured loans approved, unsecured credit granted per income category and unsecured credit granted from the National Credit Regulator (NCR) database and performing descriptive and econometric analysis. The Zivot-Andrews (1992) and augmented Dickey-Fuller tests determined the break dates which were linked to a significant economic event while the one sample t-test of means compared average loan values before and after the break date. Results of the study indicate that the break dates determined coincided with economic events and monetary policy changes in South Africa, such as the collapse of African Bank, the implementation of the National Credit Amendment Act, prime interest rate movements and the introduction of a debt counselling program by the government. These events, coupled with stricter lending criteria and no further loans being granted to customers already more than three months in arrears, restrained the uptake of unsecured loans to lower and middle income groups. The introduction of new affordability criteria and increasing interest rates in 2014 further negatively impacted demand for unsecured loans. However, higher income earners had the advantage of being able to apply for higher loan amounts. Findings could be used by monetary policymakers and financial institutions to constantly monitor credit trends, improve credit assessment techniques and review lending criteria. / Business Management / M. Com. (Financial Management)

South Africans carry high debt levels and many deal with the threat of over-indebtedness. In particular, the debt situation of the youth is of utmost concern. This study was undertaken to gain an understanding of how the liability usage of households fluctuates over the life course. The main objective was to identify and describe how debt is accumulated by young South Africans and how household characteristics and events may be related to the uptake of household liabilities. This study conducted a comprehensive literature review culminating with the development of a heuristic model that identified variables that may affect household debt uptake. Quantitative statistical analysis techniques were employed on secondary data acquired from the South African Audience Research Foundation’s All Media and Products Survey for the years 1999 until 2013. The findings identified that household debt follows a familiar life cycle pattern. A number of independent variables were shown to affect household debt uptake. Furthermore, certain of these variables are related to the trajectories of the life course. / Taxation / M. Acc. Sci.