Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:45:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 1848162 bytes, checksum: 8d8c6d6ea96038f73be05f042425a488 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-09-17 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The prices of securities traded on stock exchanges, as well as any other commodity in the financial market fluctuate naturally with the demand for these products. These oscillations, along with the asymmetry of information about the prices of these products generate volatility processes. Charles Dow in the early twentieth century created sector indexes, in which papers met the same area of activity, according to him, several indicators point to the same direction would be a sign that this really would be a tendency to drive the market, thus characterizing the Dow Theory. Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1948) studied the average prices of the Dow Jones Industrial and realized repetitions in the market changes, their observations were summarized in what became known as "The Wave Principle." Elliott developed his theory based on so-called Fibonacci sequence, discovered by Leonardo Pizza (Fibonacci) around 1200. In addition to the Dow Theory and the Theory of waves in this work was done using the Theory of Rationality of the agents as a complementary way to explain the decision process of investors, as happens in situations of uncertainty. A rational decision involves selecting the choice which has the largest expected return for a given level of risk. / Os preços dos ativos negociados em bolsas de valores, assim como qualquer outro tipo de commodity do mercado financeiro, oscilam naturalmente com a procura por esses produtos. Essas oscilações, juntamente com a assimetria das informações acerca dos preços desses produtos geram processos de volatilidade. Charles Dow, no início do século XX criou índices setoriais, nos quais reunia papéis da mesma área de atividade, segundo ele, se vários índices apontassem para a mesma direção seria um sinal de que realmente essa seria uma tendência de movimentação do mercado, caracterizando assim a Teoria de Dow. Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1948) estudou as cotações médias dos índices Dow Jones Industrial e percebeu repetições nas alterações do mercado, suas observações foram resumidas no que ficou conhecido como O Princípio da Onda . Elliott desenvolveu a sua teoria com base na denominada Sequência de Fibonacci, descoberta por Leonardo de Pizza (Fibonacci) por volta de 1200. Além da Teoria de Dow e da Teoria das Ondas, nesse trabalho, fez-se uso da Teoria da Racionalidade dos agentes como uma forma complementar para se explicar o processo de decisão dos investidores, dado que acontecem em situações de incerteza. Uma decisão racional implica em selecionar a escolha que apresente o maior retorno esperado para um dado nível de risco.

O ensaio de simples reconhecimento do solo (SPT) e usualmente utilizado para estimar a resistência do solo, atraves do índice NSPT, que representa a resistencia a penetração dinâmica do amostrador no solo. Esse índice é usado diretamente em correlações empíricas ou semi-empíricas na determinação da capacidade de suporte e recalque das fundações. Entretanto, esse ensaio tem sido alvo de críticas devido a utilização dessas correlações empíricas, geralmente baseadas em observações práticas e sem nenhum fundamento científico. Críticas também estão relacionadas com a dispersão dos resultados, devido a utilização de diferentes tipos de equipamentos e procedimentos executivos. O índice NSPT depende da parcela de energia que e efetivamente transmitida ao amostrador durante a queda do martelo. Assim, análises racionais dos resultados de ensaios SPT dependem essencialmente da estimativa da quantidade dessa energia. Por esse motivo, tem sido desenvolvidas diversas pesquisas relacionados com a energia envolvida no ensaio SPT. Este trabalho apresenta interpretações dos resultados do ensaio SPT a partir das quantidades de energia envolvidas durante a queda do martelo. Essas quantidades de energia são determinadas indiretamente, através dos sinais de força normal e aceleração durante a propagação da onda de tensão ao longo da composição de hastes. Para isso, foi desenvolvido um equipamento que inclui uma instrumentação capaz de registrar esses sinais de força normal e aceleração. Uma série de ensaios SPT foi realizada com instrumentação instalada tanto no topo como na base da composição de hastes. Esse arranjo permitiu estimar as quantidades de energia disponíveis no topo e na base da composição de hastes. Assim, foi possível determinar a eficiência dos equipamentos SPT com base na quantidade de energia que efetivamente atinge o amostrador. A partir dos sinais registrados, também foi possível determinar a resistência dinâmica mobilizada no sistema solo-amostrador. Os resultados experimentais foram comparados com resultados obtidos através de métodos teóricos, baseados no Princípio de Hamilton, para a determinação da resistência estática e dinâmica do solo. Essas análises mostraram que equações teóricas podem ser adequadas para a determinação da resistência do solo, desde que seja considerada a quantidade de energia que efetivamente atinge o amostrador. Desta forma, essas equações teóricas podem ser facilmente incorporadas na prática de projeto de fundações, contribuindo para o desenvolvimento de métodos baseados na quantidade de energia necessária para a penetração do amostrador no solo. / The standard penetration test (SPT) is usually used to estimate the soil strength through the NSPT index which represents the dynamic reaction force of the sampler penetration into the soil. This index is directly used in empirical or semi-empirical correlations for the determination of the bearing capacity and foundation settlements. However, this test has been criticized due to the use of these empirical correlations, often based on practical observation without any scientific basis. Criticism is also related to result dispersion due to the use of different types of equipment and execution procedures. The NSPT index depends on the amount of energy that is effectively transmitted to the sampler during the hammer fall. Thus, rational analyses of the SPT test results essentially depend on the estimation of this amount of energy. For this reason, several studies related to the energy involved in SPT test have been developed. This research presents interpretations of the SPT test results from the amounts of energy involved during the hammer fall. These amounts of energy are indirectly assessed by means of normal force and acceleration signals during the stress wave propagation along the string of rods. For this reason, a device that includes instrumentation capable of registering these signals of normal force and acceleration was developed. A series of tests was performed with the instrumentation installed at the top and the bottom of the string of rods. This arrangement allowed estimating the amount of energy available at the top and bottom of the string of rods. Thus, it was possible to estimate the efficiency of the SPT equipment basing on the amount of energy that actually reaches the sampler. From the recorded signals, it was also possible to assess the dynamic reaction force mobilized in the soil-sample system. The results were compared with other results obtained by theoretical methods, based on the Hamilton´s Principle, for evaluating the static and dynamic reaction force of the soil. These analyzes have shown that theoretical equations may be suitable for the determination of the soil strength, provided that the amount of energy that actually reaches the sampler be considered. Thus, these theoretical equations can be easily incorporated into the practice of foundation designs contributing to the development of methods based on the amount of energy required for the penetration of the sampler into the soil.

This thesis addresses developments in Artificial Intelligence and the increasing trend of robotization and autonomization of military forces in the context of Revolution in Military Affairs. It examines and categorizes different approaches to concepts of AI, autonomy and RMA in the public debate and academic and military literature. It further explores potential impacts and challenges of AI and its weaponized subset - Autonomous Weapon Systems on civil-military relations, legal and ethical norms, arms control regime and general security domain. Building upon findings from previous chapters, AI and AWSs are analyzed in a context of RMA and broader socio-economic context. Specifically, AI-enabled autonomy is compared with aspects of existing remotely controlled systems. The thesis comes to a conclusion that AWSs are harbingers of the next RMA and AI has the potential to match the importance of Neolithic, Industrial and Information revolution.

The large-scale use of artificial light throughout the night has occurred in the last 100 years and continues to increase globally. Artificial light impacts many animal and plant taxa. The effects of artificial light on bats is species specific. The Namib Desert in Namibia is still relatively dark but subject to the same drivers of increasing development and urbanization that have increased the spread of artificial light globally. This study investigated the effects of the introduction of ultraviolet, yellow and white artificial light on the activity of bats in a rural environment with minimal development in the Namib Desert. Four sites, 100 m apart, had one light and one bat detector each. The fourth light was a dark control. Each site was sampled four times by each light type. Bat activity was recorded by the bat detectors. Eight bat species were recorded during the experiment. Activity increased for open air and clutter-edge foraging species analysed. Broadband white light caused the highest increases in activity followed by yellow light when compared with the dark control site. Ultraviolet light caused the lowest increases in activity contrary to expectations. / Mengwaga ye 100 ya go feta go bile le koketšego ye kgolo ya tšhomišo ya seetša sa maitirelo bošego ka moka. Setlwaedi se se ata kudu lefaseng ka moka go feta pele, gomme se ama diphoofolo tše ntši le mehuta ya dimela. Leganata la Namib go la Namibia gabotse le sa ntše le swiswetše, eupša le ka fase ga dikgontšhi tša go oketša tlhabollo le toropofatšo tšeo di hlotšego koketšego tšhomišong ya seetša sa maitirelo lefaseng ka bophara. Dikhuetšo tša seetša sa maitirelo go memankgagane di fapana go ya ka mohuta. Nyakišišo ye e nyakišišitše dikhuetšo tša tsebagatšo ya seetša sa maitirelo sa go phadima, serolwane le se sešweu go modiro wa memankgagane ka tikologong ya nagaselegae ya go ba le tlhabollo ye nyane ka Leganateng la Namib. Seetša se setee le tithekethara e tee ya mankgagane di hlomilwe go le lengwe le le lengwe la mafelo a mane, a go arogantšhwa ka 100 m. Seetša sa bone se be se le taolo ya leswiswi. Lefelo le lengwe le le lengwe le dirilwe mohlala makga a mane ka mohuta wo mongwe le wo mongwe wa seetša. Modiro wa mankgagane e rekotilwe ka ditithekethara tša mankgagane. Mehuta ya mankgagane ye seswai e rekotilwe nakong ya eksperimente. Modiro wa mehuta ya sebakabakeng le ya go sela thobekgeng ye e sekasekilwego e oketšegile. Seetša se sešweu sa porotepente se hlotše dikoketšego tša modiro, sa latelwa ke seetša se se serolwane, ge se bapetšwa le lefelo la taolo ya leswiswi. Go fapana le ditetelo, seetša sa go phadima se hlotše dikoketšego tša fasefase modirong. / School of Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Nature Conservation)

Ocean-surface Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) are essential in various thalassic applications, such as maritime communication, ocean monitoring, seawater examination, pollution detection, etc. Formed by simple structured sensor nodes, ocean-surface WSN can improve the data transmission rate, enhance the monitoring resolution, expand the geographical coverage, extend the observation period, and lower the cost compared to the vessel-based monitoring approaches. Despite the importance and the broad applications of ocean-surface WSNs, little is known about the stability of the wireless links among the sensors. Especially, research suffers from the lack of an accurate model that describes the environmnetal effects, including the ocean surface movements and the wind speed on the link stability. The inappropriate understanding of link stability can result in network protocols that are not robust to environmental interruptions. Such a shortcoming decreases the network reliability and degrades the accuracy of the network planning. To compensate for this shortcoming, in this dissertation, we provide a thorough analysis on the stability of the wireless links over the ocean. In particular, we investigate and capture the effects of ocean waves on the link stability through the following steps. First, we use the linear wave theory and obtain a novel stochastic model of Line-of-Sight (LoS) links over the ocean based on the realistic behavior of ocean waves. Second, we present and prove an important theorem on the level-crossing of Wide Sense Stationary (WSS) random processes, and combine that with our stochastic model of LoS links to study two important indicators of link stability, i.e., the blockage probability and the blockage and connectivity periods. The former indicates the probability that a LoS link is blocked by the ocean waves while the latter determines the duration of on/off periods of the LoS links over the ocean. The aforementioned stability parameters directly affect different stages of network design, such as choosing the antenna height, planning the sensors' deployment distances, determining the packet length, designing the retransmission and scheduling strategies in the Medium Access Control (MAC) protocols and transport layer protocols, selecting the fragmentation threshold in Internet Protocol (IP), etc., which will be discussed in the respective chapters. In the last part of our dissertation, we investigate the problem of linear prediction of ocean waves, which has special importance in the design of ocean-surface WSNs. In this regard, we first introduce a low-complexity metric for effectiveness of k-step-ahead linear prediction, which we refer to as efficiency curve. The significance of efficiency curve becomes evident when we decide upon the number of previous samples in the linear prediction model, and determine the extent to which the predictor forecasts the future. After efficiency curve, we formulate an adaptive Wiener filter to predict the ocean waves and adapt the prediction model according to the environmental changes. / Doctor of Philosophy / Covering almost three quarters of the earth and supplying half of its oxygen, oceans are vital to the support of life on our planet. It is important to continuously monitor different parts of the ocean environment for tracking climate changes, detecting pollution, etc. However, the existing monitoring approaches have serious weaknesses, which prevent us from constantly monitoring the state of ocean, and drastically limit the geographical coverage. For instance, the traditional ocean monitoring system using oceanographic research vessels is time-consuming and expensive. Besides, it has low resolution in time and space, which poses serious challenges to oceanographers by providing under-sampled records of the ocean. To compensate for these defects, one of the promising alternatives is to employ Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) which has many advantages, such as real-time access to data for a longer period of time and a larger geographical coverage of the ocean, higher resolution of monitoring, faster processing of collected data and instantaneous transmission to onshore monitoring centers. With the benefit of simple structure sensor nodes, ocean-surface WSNs can also decrease the cost by at least one order of magnitude compared to the conventional approaches. Despite the advantages that ocean surface WSN have over traditional ocean monitoring methods, ocean surface WSN research suffers from the lack of an accurate model that describes the stability of wireless links among sensor nodes. While some of the existing literature has developed accurate models of the electromagnetic wave propagation over the ocean surface, they have failed to consider the environmental effects, such as ocean waves on the stability of the links. To fill this void, in this dissertation, we investigate ocean surface waves' effects on the Line-of-Sight (LoS) link between the sensors in an ocean-surface WSN. Specifically, we derive the blockage probability, and the blockage and connectivity periods of LoS links between a transmitter and receiver pair due to wave movements. In addition to the link stability analysis, we dedicate the last part of this dissertation to look into the problem of linear prediction of ocean waves, which has special importance in the design process of ocean-surface WSNs. In this regard, we present a low-complexity metric for effectiveness of k-step-ahead linear prediction, and formulate an adaptive Wiener filter to predict the ocean waves and adapt the prediction model according to the environmental changes.

Mechanics of structure genome (MSG) is a unified homogenization theory that provides constitutive modeling of three-dimensional (3D) continua, beams and plates. In present work, the author extends the MSG to study the buckling of structures such as stiffened and sandwich panels. Such structures are usually slender or flat and easily buckle under compressive loads or bending moments which may result in catastrophic failure.<div><br><div>Buckling studies of stiffened and sandwich panels are found to be scattered. Most of the existed theories employ unnecessary assumptions or only apply to certain types of structures. There are few unified approaches that are capable of studying the buckling of different kinds of structures altogether. The main improvements of current approach compared with other methods in the literature are avoiding unnecessary assumptions, the capability of predicting all possible buckling modes including the global and local buckling modes, and the potential in studying the buckling of various types of structures.<br></div><div><br></div><div>For global buckling that features small local rotations, MSG mathematically decouples the 3D geometrical nonlinear problem into a linear constitutive modeling using structure genome (SG) and a geometrical nonlinear problem defined in a macroscopic structure. As a result, the original structures are simplified as macroscopic structures such as beams, plates or continua with effective properties, and the global buckling modes are predicted on macroscopic structures. For local buckling that features finite local rotations, Green strain is introduced into the MSG theory to achieve geometrically nonlinear constitutive modeling. Newton’s method is used to solve the nonlinear equilibrium equations for fluctuating functions. To find the bifurcated fluctuating functions, the fluctuating functions are then perturbed under the Bloch-periodic boundary conditions. The bifurcation is found when the tangent stiffness associated with the perturbed fluctuating functions becomes singular. Moreover, the arc-length method is introduced to solve the nonlinear equilibrium equations for post-local-buckling predictions because of its robustness. The imperfection is included in the form of geometrical imperfection by superimposing the scaled buckling modes in linear perturbation analysis on mesh.<br></div><div><br></div><div>Extensive validation case studies are carried out to assess the accuracy of the MSG theory in global buckling analysis and post-global-buckling analysis, and assess the accuracy of the extended MSG theory in local buckling and post-local-buckling analysis. Results using MSG theory and extended MSG theory in buckling analysis are compared with direct numerical solutions such as 3D FEA results and results in literature. Parametric studies are performed to reveal the relative influence of selective geometric parameters on buckling behaviors. The extended MSG theory is also compared with representative volume element (RVE) analysis with Bloch-periodic boundary conditions using commercial finite element packages such as Abaqus to assess the efficiency and accuracy of the present approach.<br></div></div>