Traditional forest planning models, based on mathematical programming
techniques for constrained optimization, have failed to adequately address the
new realities of managing forest landscapes so as to sustain in perpetuity a full
range of intrinsic values and human benefits. This thesis proposes a general
simulation modelling framework for the analysis and management of forest
landscapes. The framework, based on state space techniques for modelling of
complex dynamic systems, addresses many of the requirements of modern
forest planning analysis.
Application of the general framework is demonstrated in the development of a
specific simulation model for designing spatially explicit harvest schedules that
balance biodiversity and timber production objectives. A state space model is
developed to predict the dynamics stand level structure over a landscape
represented in raster format. This portion of the model is shown to provide
realistic predictions of the temporal development of stand structure, and
demonstrates the potential of the state space format for representing the
physical attributes and complex dynamics of forest landscapes. An heuristic
control procedure based on simple multi-criteria decision making techniques is
developed to determine the spatial and temporal sequence of management
actions according to their combined effect on the objectives for the landscape.
To demonstrate and evaluate the feasibility of the proposed approach, the
completed model is used to simulate the management of a 3850 hectare
landscape over 150 years using a 5 year time step. Scenarios are presented to
show achieved levels of serai stage, patch size, and timber outputs under
different weightings of the corresponding management objectives. The model was able to maintain the system output within the desired limits when harvest
volume was the only specified management objective. The desired harvest
levels were achieved primarily through clearcut and heavy thinning activities.
In the case of managing for serai stage, patch size, and timber objectives the
model was an effective tool for exploring the trade-offs required to find a
balance between all seven objectives. Serai stage objectives were fully met,
although at the expense of violating the upper bound on harvest levels in
several simulation periods. Patch size objectives were met in some periods,
and were significantly improved in all other periods compared to the scenario
involving only the volume objective. This broad mix of landscape outputs was
achieved using a much wider range of harvest treatment intensities than in the
single objective case.
The case study demonstrates that it is feasible to represent a detailed
description of stand level dynamics in a spatially explicit forest level model
using readily available desktop computing systems. Such a simulation model is
intended to have application as a tool for designing alternative management
strategies to provide input to an iterative multi-objective planning process. / Science, Faculty of / Resources, Environment and Sustainability (IRES), Institute for / Graduate
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UBC/oai:circle.library.ubc.ca:2429/6319 |
| Date | 11 1900 |
| Creators | Hafer, Mark A. |
| Source Sets | University of British Columbia |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text, Thesis/Dissertation |
| Format | 5121431 bytes, application/pdf |
| Rights | For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use. |
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