Renewed violent attacks in Saudi Arabia against the monarchy, combined with growing concern over royal corruption has led some analysts to predict that Saudi Arabia is likely to be "the next Iran"-that Islamist revolutionaries will come to power in Riyadh. I test this theory through the lens of network analysis in order to measure the degree of state-society integration in Pahlavi Iran and Saudi Arabia. My analysis finds that a) the Saudi state is far more integrated in society through social networks than the Pahlavi state; and b) the radical opposition in Saudi is far less entrenched in society than the Khomeini-led opposition in Iran, a movement that was able to activate significant informal urban networks to mobilize the population. While both are rentier states, Saudi networks in society have effectively overcome the structural state weakness and potential instability that distributive political economies often engender. The shah had no equivalent system of networks linking regime to society, and thus was more vulnerable to revolution. Thus, while Saudi Arabia has significant internal problems, it is highly unlikely that those problems will be manifested as a social revolution. Persistent demands for reform and periodic bouts of violence are more likely outcomes.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:nps.edu/oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/1978 |
| Date | 09 1900 |
| Creators | Waltermire, Bradley J. |
| Contributors | Robinson, Glenn E., Denning, Dorothy, Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)., Defense Analysis |
| Publisher | Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School |
| Source Sets | Naval Postgraduate School |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | xii, 100p. : ill. ;, application/pdf |
| Rights | Approved for public release, distribution unlimited |
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