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Využití simulačních modelů při analýze rizika / The use of simulation models for the analysis of risk

Optimization is used in daily practice with fixed input quantities and assuming constancy of all internal and external factors that may affect the results. But the reality that surrounds us is not so straightforward and clear. It is a complex and variable system. We learn new information about it every moment and it changes and evolves constantly. If the variability is included in the optimization model, it will change from the deterministic to stochastic model. Simulation offers a way how to work with the variability of inputs and the risk that the future development will be different from the assumptions. It uses probability distributions of entering risk factors. The most frequent method is Monte Carlo simulation, which is based on the generation of large amount of scenarios of possible future developments. Crystal Ball was used as simulation software program.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:nusl.cz/oai:invenio.nusl.cz:198440
Date January 2014
CreatorsHernová, Zuzana
ContributorsJablonský, Josef, Kuncová, Martina
PublisherVysoká škola ekonomická v Praze
Source SetsCzech ETDs
LanguageCzech
Detected LanguageEnglish
Typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
Rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess

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