Water is a scarce resource especially as the water demand is significantly increasing due to the rapid growth of population. Hydrological modelling has gained a lot of attention, as it is the key to predict water availability, optimize the use of water resources and develop risk mitigation schemes. There are still many challenges in hydrological modelling that researchers and designers are trying to solve. These challenges include, but not limited to: i) there is no single robust model that can perform well in all watersheds; ii) model parameters are often associated with uncertainty, which makes the results inconclusive; iii) the required computational power for uncertainty quantification increases with the increase in model complexity; iv) some modelling assumptions to simplify computational complexity, such as parameter independence are, are often not realistic. These challenges make it difficult to provide robust hydrological predictions and/or to quantify the uncertainties within hydrological models in an efficient and accurate way. This study aims to provide more robust hydrological predictions by developing a set of hybrid approaches. Firstly, a hybrid hydrological data-driven (HHDD) model based on the integration of a physically-based hydrological model (HYMOD) and a data-driven model (artificial neural network, ANN) is developed. The HHDD model is capable of improving prediction accuracy and generating interval flow prediction results. Secondly, a hybrid probabilistic forecasting approach is developed by linking the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method with ANN. The results indicate that PCE-ANN can be as reliable as but much more efficient than the traditional Monte-Carlo (MC) method for probabilistic flow forecasting. Finally, a hybrid uncertainty quantification approach that can address parameter dependence is developed through the integration of principal component analysis (PCA) with PCE. The results from this dissertation research can provide valuable technical and decision support for hydrological modeling and water resources management under uncertainty. / Thesis / Doctor of Engineering (DEng) / There is a water scarcity problem in the world, so it is vital to have reliable decision support tools for effective water resources management. Researchers and decision-makers rely on hydrological modelling to predict water availability. Hydrological model results are then used for water resources allocation and risk mitigation. Hydrological modelling is not a simple process, as there are different sources of uncertainty associated with it, such as model structure, model parameters, and data. In this study, data-driven techniques are used with process-driven models to develop hybrid uncertainty quantification approaches for hydrological modelling. The overall objectives are: i) to generate more robust probabilistic forecasts; ii) to improve the computational efficiency for uncertainty quantification without compromising accuracy; and, iii) to overcome the limitations of current uncertainty quantification methods, such as parameter interdependency. The developed hybrid approaches can be used by decision-makers in water resources management, as well as risk assessment and mitigation.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:mcmaster.ca/oai:macsphere.mcmaster.ca:11375/25523 |
| Date | January 2020 |
| Creators | Ghaith, Maysara |
| Contributors | Zhong (Zoe), Li, Civil Engineering |
| Source Sets | McMaster University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
Page generated in 0.0019 seconds