從1960年代開始，公部門基於稅務處理需求，使得電腦輔助大量估價（Computer Assisted Mass Assessment，CAMA）成為輔助的工具，大幅提升了估價的效率。在1990年代，金融機構因不動產證券化的發展及不良資產估價等業務，而衍生了對大量不動產進行估價的需求，同時在電腦與統計模型的進步之下，自動估價模型（Automated Valuation Models，AVM）應然而生，並被廣泛應用在金融市場。由此可知因為不動產經濟活動的熱絡發展，大量估價的需求日益增加，其具備的客觀與效率等優點更彰顯其重要性。
雖然大量估價的需求日益增加，然而過去對於估價準確性相關研究，主要著重在估價理論與技術層面、估價行為對估價結果的影響、探討個別估價和大量估價的估值比較，而較少單獨探究影響大量估價準確性的因素。由於特徵價格理論隱含不動產高度異質的特性，不動產價格受到總體經濟、政策、住宅屬性、公共設施、區位等因素影響，然而前述因素是否會對估價準確性造成影響?造成影響的因素為何?為本文所欲探討之問題。
本文在實證部分分成兩階段，首先以特徵價格理論為基礎，利用實價登錄資料建立大量估價模型，以MAPE與Hit Rate來衡量估價準確性，結果指出MAPE達到14.19%，而正負誤差10%的命中率為47.18%、正負誤差20%的命中率為74.75%，跟過往研究所建立的大量估價模型相比具有相當的水準，顯示出官方性質的交易資料具有一定的可信度。在建置大量估價模型後，本文以模型價格及成交價格間的比值作為劃分估價準確程度的依據，以多項羅吉特模型進行實證分析，結果指出住宅大樓、捷運站周遭住宅、大坪數住宅估價結果容易呈現低估情形；而新市區中心估價結果容易呈現高估的情形；另外比較特別的是舊市區中心、北郊區估價結果較容易呈現高估及低估，換言之在這兩個區域估價容易得到不準確的結果。 / Since 1960s, public sector began to take advantage of computer assisted mass assessment(CAMA) based on taxation services and greatly improved the efficiency of appraisal. In 1990s, financial institutions due to the development of securitization of real estate and non-performing asset valuation and other services, generating the demand of mass appraisal. Simultaneously, due to the development of computer and statistical models gradually progress, bring in automated valuation models(AVM) in the financial markets. Hence, with the real estate economic activities gradually booming, the increasing demand for mass appraisal, which has the objective of efficiency and other advantages will be more to highlight its importance.
While the increasing demand for mass appraisal, but past studies about the accuracy of appraisal, mainly focused on the theoretical and technical aspects, the impact of behavior on the valuation results, and to explore appraisers and mass appraisal of the valuation. However, past studies less focused on a large number of factors affect the accuracy of the appraisal.
Since the hedonic price theory implies highly heterogeneous characteristics of real estate, real estate prices affected by factors of macroeconomic, tax policy, housing properties, public facilities, location and so on, but whether the aforementioned factors will affect the valuation accuracy?Is this research seeking to explore the issue.
In this paper, the empirical section is divided into two stages, first with the hedonic price theory based on the use actual price registration to establish the mass appraisal models, and base on MAPE and Hit Rate to measure the accuracy of the appraisal, the results indicate MAPE reached 14.19%, while the margin of error of 10% hit rate of 47.18%, 20% hit rate is 74.75%. Compared with the past studies, this model has established a great performance. This research proved that the official data with reliability.
After establishing the mass appraisal models, the research use model prices and the transaction price ratio as the basis for division between the accuracy of the appraisal and use multinomial logistic model to conduct empirical analysis. The results indicated that the residential building, housing around MRT stations, the big area housing was prone to result underestimate valuations, the new urban center appraisal results likely to show overvalued valuations. On the other hand, old city center and the northern suburbs results presented overestimate and underestimate valuations simultaneously, in other words, that is usually get inaccurate results in these two regions.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0102257019 |
| Creators | 陳信豪, Chen, Sin Hao |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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