專家系統自1965年發展至今，其發展是與日遽增，在邁入二十一世紀這個新紀元，傳統的專家系統遭遇到不同以往的問題，不僅處理的問題複雜度提高之外，在建置系統的過程中需要更多專家提供其寶貴的意見，以期讓系統在處理問題的層面能更加寬廣及增進其彈性和效用。因此，多專家系統能夠解決傳統上單一專家先天上的限制。Gaines和Shaw於1989年在其論著中指出，利用一群專家的知識來發展專家系統其效益比單一專家來的更好。
然而，在多專家的專家系統中會產生案例選取的衝突，過去大都依賴人為的經驗法則判斷。如此一來，不僅在處理的時間成本上產生耗損，其選取案例的公信力亦容易令人產生存疑。此外在相關的研究上，絕大多數都未對於此一衝突提出另外一套較具公正性的解決辦法。
針對此一現象，本研究發現欲解決其中之案例衝突，可以藉由群體決策和多評準決策領域中尋求解決之辦法，透過本研究一連串的文獻蒐集與探討，得到Nemawashi決策模式可以加以導入應用，因此，本研究嘗試引用案例式推論（Case-Base Reasoning）、Nemawashi 決策模式，提出一個整合多專家的意見和解決其案例產生衝突的方法。 / Expert system has been in speeding development since 1965. With the advent of the 21st century, the traditional expert system is encountering problems different from the past. With the rising complexity of nowadays problems, it requires valuable opinions from more professionals in the construction of expert system. The multi-expert knowledge can not only broaden the scope in which the system handles problems, but also enhance the system’s flexibility and efficiency. Thus, multi-expert system outsmarts the conventional expert system which is restricted by the voice of a single expert. Gaines and Shaw in 1989 commented that the expert system was better quipped with a group of experts than with one single expert.
Nevertheless, multi-expert system contains the problem of case conflict. To undermine the conflict, it is common for people to resort to experts’ judgments and their personal experiences. Consequently, the multi-expert system has the disadvantage of consuming time in the process of case selection. Moreover, the case selected out of this process may be unconvincing due to its overdependence on human decisions. As to the problem of case conflict, most of the researches related to multi-expert system do not propose other more objective solutions.
Focus on the problem mentioned above, this study tends to solve case conflict through the use of Group Decision and Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM). After the collection and analysis of data, the study finds out that Nemawashi Decisions are effective in handling the problem of case conflict. Thus, this study attempts to apply Nemawashi Decisions in Case-Base Reasoning in order to combine opinions from different experts and to solve the case conflict in the multi-expert system.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0090356032 |
| Creators | 陳信宏, Hsin-Hung Chen |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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