A cropland distribution model, which is based on climate, soil and topography, is applied to estimate the area and spatial distribution of global potential croplands under contemporary climate and to assess the effect of transient climate changes projected by the MIT Integrated Global System Model for assessment of climate change. The area of global potential croplands is about 32.91 x 10^6 km^2 under contemporary climate, and increases substantially over the period of 1977-2100 and differs among the three transient climate change predictions, being about +6.7% (2.20 x 10^6 km^2), +11.5% (3.78 x 10^6 km^2), and +12.5% (4.12 x 10^6 km^2) in 2100, respectively. Among twelve economic regions of the world, the Former Soviet Union and the Other OECD Countries regions have the largest increases in potential croplands, while developing countries have little increases in potential croplands. Spatial distribution of potential croplands changes considerably over time, dependent upon the transient climate change predictions. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 9-12). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/). / Supported by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (CE-S-462041), and the National Institute of Global Environmental Changes of the Department of Energy. No:901214-HAR Supported by the Earth Observing Systems Program of NASA. NAGW-2669
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:MIT/oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/3631 |
| Date | 05 1900 |
| Contributors | Xiao, Xiangming., Melillo, Jerry M., Kicklighter, David W., McGuire, A. David., Tian, Hanqin., Pan, Yude., Vörösmarty, Charles, J., Yang, Zili. |
| Publisher | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| Source Sets | M.I.T. Theses and Dissertation |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Format | 25 p., 6055829 bytes, application/pdf |
| Relation | Report no. 18 |
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