Epidemiologists have developed a vast range of models to describe the spread and control of epidemics. Most of these address critical issues such as invasion, persistence and variability of disease, though few have considered economic factors associated with control. Conversely, economists have highlighted the importance of constraints imposed by limited resources, though few of these studies retained the vital dynamics and temporal progression that characterise epidemics. In this study we attempt to combine economic and epidemiological factors to create a framework within which optimal control strategies can be derived. Specifically, we address the following key questions: how can we incorporate economic constraints into an epidemiological framework?; can this be extended to more complex systems such as spatially explicit models?; and can we derive optimal control strategies in the presence of uncertainty? To address these questions we examine a range of systems, such as vaccination of emerging epidemics in human and animal populations, short and long-term application of fungicides to large-scale crop epidemics, and the timing of pest control measures in the presence of epidemic risk and uncertainty. Although we consider only a limited number of systems, the epidemiological models are generic and the methods from optimal control and option theory are applicable to a wide range of problems. The results can therefore be generalised to a number of epidemiological scenarios.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:bl.uk/oai:ethos.bl.uk:599128 |
| Date | January 2008 |
| Creators | Forster, G. A. |
| Publisher | University of Cambridge |
| Source Sets | Ethos UK |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
Page generated in 0.0126 seconds