This thesis analyses four aspects of migration in developing countries with uncel1ainty as the critical feature. First, we consider the effects of uncertainty on the decision to migrate. Our findings show that uncertainty matters in the timing of migration by bringing it forward or delaying it depending on the source of uncertainty. Uncertainty results in cautious behaviour by households, which explains why, in spite of observing huge wage differentials between regions, the scale of migration appears relatively small. Income differentials are thus not sufficient for migration. Second, we build on the uncertainty in the area of migrant origin by analysing the relationship between vulnerability to poverty and migration. We develop a conceptual framework that identities the uncertainty of migration outcomes as an important variable in affecting household vulnerability, even though migration is widely regarded as a strategy to offset the risk of falling into poverty. Third, we consider how the poor finance their migration. We develop an interlinked contract in which migrant households can borrow form richer households. Our model explains the empirical observation that migration rates by the very poor from villages with high inequalities are high even though the poor are generally prevented from migration because of the costs. The uncertainty of lending to a household with no collateral for migration, which itself is uncertain, is overcome through the interlinked contract. Fourth, we show that migration has a signalling effect. which can reveal infom1ation on the quality of skilled migrants. There is uncertainty on migrant productivity that is only resolved by migration. Thus the information generated can he used to develop modern sectors in the sending region if migration results in favourable outcomes. The thesis makes a theoretical and methodological contribution in the analysis of these four aspects.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:bl.uk/oai:ethos.bl.uk:497546 |
| Date | January 2007 |
| Creators | Khwaja, Yasmeen |
| Publisher | SOAS, University of London |
| Source Sets | Ethos UK |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
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