This research aimed to determine how the potential impacts of climate change upon the hydrological cycle in Medak District, Andhra Pradesh, could affect the ability of stakeholders to achieve positive livelihood outcomes and influence human well- being, by affecting the delivery of key provisioning ecosystem services (ES). This was undertaken with reference to two physically similar but hydrologically different study sites that are considered to be hydrologically representative of each other under different climate change scenarios (as predicted by the SWAT hydrological model). Both sites are located at different points along a trajectory between being water scarce and having surplus water (the upstream site having less water). The premise was that by comparing both these sites in relation to their current respective capacities to deliver hydrologically sensitive ES, speculation could be made as to how both sites might function under climate change. By also understanding how the delivery of these ES can influence the ability of stakeholders to achieve positive livelihood outcomes and enhance human well-being, it was also possible to examine how climate change will affect these parameters in the future. A five-tiered strategy involving qualitative, semi-quantitative, quantitative, modelling and theoretical methodologies delivered meaningful understandings of site-specific relationships between stakeholders and key hydrologically sensitive ES, including those surrounding the provision of crops, fish, forest products and water resources. These assessments established that virtually every relationship contrasted to some extent across the two study sites, with downstream stakeholders normally finding it easier to achieve positive livelihood outcomes. When all the assessments were evaluated together within the context of the thesis premise, and based upon the broad assumption that at some point in the future, the overall study area will begin to deliver ES to a similar extent as the current downstream site, it was concluded that climate change will affect specific livelihood components and constituents of human well-being in a predominantly positive way. This finding starkly contrasts with those of many other studies, which predict that climate change will have significantly detrimental and negative impacts upon livelihoods and well-being in India. The overarching thesis conclusion also suggests that climate change may not always be a major obstacle towards achieving a number of the Millennium Development Goals. Furthermore, this research has helped to Increase our understanding of the links between hydrology, ecosystems (and biodiversity) in the study area and the benefits that people enjoy from nature, whilst also demonstrating that these links are both multiple and complex. Consequently, this thesis can help to inform, assist and support policy and decision makers when preparing India for the challenges that its society and economy may face in the future.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:bl.uk/oai:ethos.bl.uk:569459 |
| Date | January 2011 |
| Creators | Tollervey, Jonathan E. |
| Publisher | University of Liverpool |
| Source Sets | Ethos UK |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
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