Based on an overwhelming body of evidence, there is scientific consensus that global climate is changing and warming of the climate change is unequivocal. Since the 1950's many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia (JPCC, 2013). The concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen and the climate atmosphere and ocean have warmed (IPCC, 2013). However, climate variability and change are considered as important factors for societal developments where they are affecting societies in many ways. In this trend, today, there is new and robust evidence that increased storminess, accelerated sea level rise and coastal erosion as a consequence of global warming are highly likely to have profound impacts on coastal ecosystems and communities worldwide. The occurrences of such consequences are expected to increase in frequency due to the effects of climate change. Globally, different set of scenarios predicted that sea-level would continue to rise between 0.18 to 0;80 cm by 2100. Consistent with global trends, Oman has warmed by ~ 1.03 °C over the last century. There has also been significant inter -annual variability in tropical cyclone frequency and a decrease in precipitation. Additionally, flooding due to storms and tropical cyclones is one of the most devastating naturally hazards in Oman. During the past seven years, Oman experienced two very severe tropical cyclones (Gonu 2007 and Phet 2010), which have affected local economies and communities along the coastal areas. As a result of these changes, attention and awareness has been raised nationally to climate variability and climate change. The main objective of this research is to identify and assess some of the main vulnerable areas of coastal zone of Oman to the climate change implications with particular emphasis on sea level rise. The aims of the study are to: 1) investigate climate and geophysical trends in Oman over the last few decades; 2) assess vulnerable areas of coastal zones of Oman to sea level rise; and 3) assess the current adaptation measures and point out the urgent need to build up institutional and human capacities to approach problems and to indentify gaps, points of strength and points of weakness, options of adaptation and needs for sustainable coastal management plans. This is important for the creation of an effective coastal zone management development strategy that can respond to Climate Change impacts. Thus there is a need to know what is potentially at risks, which lead to the development of a coastal vulnerability index (CVI). The CVI assesses the relatively physical vulnerability to the coast. The study outlines the broad techniques used to determine the CVI for Oman coastlines, which identified zones at risk to sea level rise and assesses its implications for coastal management in Oman. The study shows that AL Batinah and Muscat Governorates are classified as the most highly vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise because they are most populated and with higher socio-economic activities along their coastlines. However, the findings of this research will be used to define national strategies and policies for climate change adaptation and mitigation for coastal areas.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:bl.uk/oai:ethos.bl.uk:665466 |
| Date | January 2014 |
| Creators | Al-Sariri, Thuraiya |
| Publisher | University of Surrey |
| Source Sets | Ethos UK |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
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