Advances in recent treatments for HIV/AIDS patients have shown dramatic outcomes in extending the incubation period and AIDS survival time, whilst also providing significant improvements in the quality of patients' lives. This thesis establishes a model of the HIV/AIDS epidemic that incorporates the effects of treatments, in particular, the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), which became widely available during 1996. The technique of compartmental modelling is employed in an attempt to reproduce observed AIDS incidence/prevalence, HIV incidence/prevalence, and deaths from AIDS data. There are movements between compartments (sub-populations affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic) each with an associated parameter. Each sub-population has a differential-difference equation associated with it. Once these equations have been solved numerically they give a set of steady-state solutions, from which it is possible to estimate HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence. Some parameter values within the model are obtained from surveys, census results, etc., but others are derived using a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) procedure. The use of realistic values gives impressive results, creating a remarkable fit with routinely collected data relating to levels of HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence in the UK homosexual population. Finally, the model is used to project levels of incidence and prevalence over the next few years, and to investigate several possible 'what-if' scenarios, with a brief investigation into the consequent cost implications.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:bl.uk/oai:ethos.bl.uk:583686 |
| Date | January 2005 |
| Creators | Lawson, Zoe Frances |
| Publisher | Cardiff University |
| Source Sets | Ethos UK |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
| Source | http://orca.cf.ac.uk/56013/ |
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