Meningococcal meningitis is a major public health problem in an area of sub-Saharan Africa known as the meningitis belt. In this region, thousands of people fall ill each year during highly seasonal meningitis outbreaks. At frequent but unpredictable times, large epidemics of meningitis sweep the belt. Despite the gravity of the problem, much is still unknown about what drives this pattern of epidemics. The aim of this thesis is to use mathematical models to gain insights into the epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis in the meningitis belt. Firstly, several simple deterministic models are analysed. They highlight the importance of immunity following both asymptomatic carriage and invasive meningitis. For a broad range of plausible parameter values, seasonal variation of the rate of meningococcal transmission results at long, irregular intervals. Realistic sized repeated epidemics are not possible if only the ration of cases to carriers changes seasonally.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:bl.uk/oai:ethos.bl.uk:617595 |
| Date | January 2013 |
| Creators | Irving, Thomas J. |
| Publisher | University of Bristol |
| Source Sets | Ethos UK |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
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