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Previous issue date: 2015-06-29 / A variabilidade/mudan?a clim?tica tem gerado grandes preocupa??es em n?vel mundial, sendo uma das grandes quest?es o aquecimento global, que pode est? afetando a disponibilidade dos recursos h?dricos em per?metros irrigados. No semi?rido do Nordeste brasileiro sabe-se que h? predomin?ncia de d?ficit h?drico, por?m pouco se conhece sobre tend?ncias em s?ries climatol?gicas da perda conjunta de ?gua por evapora??o e transpira??o (evapotranspira??o). Por isso, neste trabalho procurou-se analisar se h? ind?cios de aumento e/ou diminui??o no regime da evapotranspira??o de refer?ncia (ETo), nas escalas mensal, anual e interdecadal no polo irrigado das localidades de Juazeiro, BA (9?24?S; 40?26?W e 375,5m) e Petrolina, PE (09?09?S, 40?22?W e 376m), sendo essa an?lise o objetivo principal. De posse dos dados meteorol?gicos di?rios, disponibilizados pela EMBRAPA Semi?rido, no per?odo de 01.01.1976 a 31.12.2014, estimou-se a ETo di?ria utilizando-se o m?todo padr?o de Penman-Monteith (EToPM) parametrizado por Smith (1991). Outros m?todos de estimativas mais simplificados foram calculados e comparados ? EToPM, sendo: Radia??o Solar (EToRS), Linacre (EToL), Hargreaves e Samani (EToHS) e o m?todo do Tanque Classe A (EToTCA). As principais an?lises estat?sticas foram os testes n?o param?tricos de homogeneidade (Run), de tend?ncia (Mann-kendall), magnitude da tend?ncia (Sen) e detec??o de in?cio da tend?ncia (Mann-Whitney), a signific?ncia estat?stica adotada foi de 5 e/ou 1%. A t?cnica de An?lise de Vari?ncia - ANOVA foi aplicada para averiguar se h? diferen?a significativa nas m?dias interdecadais. Para efeitos comparativos entre os m?todos de ETo, foram utilizados a correla??o (r), o teste t-student e Tukey aos n?veis de 5% de signific?ncia. E por fim, as estat?sticas de Willmott et al. (1985) foi utilizada para avaliar o ?ndice de concord?ncia e de desempenho dos m?todos simplificados comparados ao m?todo padr?o. Obteve-se como principais resultados que houve diminui??o na s?rie temporal da EToPM nos per?metros irrigados de Juazeiro, BA e Petrolina, PE, significativos respectivamente a 1 e 5%, com uma magnitude anual de -14,5 mm (Juazeiro) e -7,7 mm (Petrolina) e in?cio da tend?ncia em 1996. Os m?todos de melhor concord?ncia com a EToPM foi a EToRS com desempenho muito bom, nas duas localidades, seguido pelo m?todo da EToL com desempenho bom (Juazeiro) e mediano (Petrolina). A EToHS obteve o pior desempenho (p?ssimo), para as duas localidades. ? sugerido neste que a diminui??o da EToPM pode est? associado ao aumento das ?reas agr?colas irrigadas e da constru??o do lago de Sobradinho ? montante dos per?metros. / The variability / climate change has generated great concern worldwide, is one of the major issues as global warming, which can is affecting the availability of water resources in irrigated perimeters. In the semiarid region of Northeastern Brazil it is known that there is a predominance of drought, but it is not enough known about trends in climate series of joint water loss by evaporation and transpiration (evapotranspiration). Therefore, this study aimed to analyze whether there is increase and / or decrease evidence in the regime of reference evapotranspiration (ETo), for the monthly, annual and interdecadal scales in irrigated polo towns of Juazeiro, BA (9 ? 24'S, 40 ? 26'W and 375,5m) and Petrolina, PE (09 ? 09'S, 40 ? 22'W and 376m), which is the main analysis objective. The daily meteorological data were provided by EMBRAPA Semi?rido for the period from 01.01.1976 to 31.12.2014, estimated the daily ETo using the standard method of Penman-Monteith (EToPM) parameterized by Smith (1991). Other methods of more simplified estimatives were calculated and compared to EToPM, as the ones following: Solar Radiation (EToRS), Linacre (EToL), Hargreaves and Samani (EToHS) and the method of Class A pan (EToTCA). The main statistical analysis were non-parametric tests of homogeneity (Run), trend (Mann-kendall), magnitude of the trend (Sen) and early trend detection (Mann-Whitney). The statistical significance adopted was 5 and / or 1%. The Analysis of Variance - ANOVA was used to detect if there is a significant difference in mean interdecadal mean. For comparison between the methods of ETo, it were used the correlation test (r), the Student t test and Tukey levels of 5% significance. Finally, statistics Willmott et al. (1985) statistics was used to evaluate the concordance index and performance of simplified methods compared to the standard method. It obtained as main results that there was a decrease in the time series of EToPM in irrigated areas of Juazeiro, BA and Petrolina, PE, significant respectively at 1 and 5%, with an annual magnitude of -14.5 mm (Juazeiro) and -7.7 mm (Petrolina) and early trend in 1996. The methods which had better for better agreement with EToPM were EToRS with very good performance, in both locations, followed by the method of EToL with good performance (Juazeiro) and median (Petrolina). EToHS had the worst performance (bad) for both locations. It is suggested that this decrease of EToPM can be associated with the increase in irrigated agricultural areas and the construction of Sobradinho lake upstream of the perimeters.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:repositorio.ufrn.br:123456789/20510 |
| Date | 29 June 2015 |
| Creators | Cabral J?nior, J?rio Bezerra |
| Contributors | 66961513204, http://lattes.cnpq.br/1394248306018449, Bezerra, Bergson Guedes, 99210703472, http://lattes.cnpq.br/1901216516407999, Spyrides, Maria Helena Constantino, 79203183434, http://lattes.cnpq.br/5023632543506327, Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa dos, 03897595460, http://lattes.cnpq.br/8478223179930197, Almeida, Hermes Alves de, Silva, Cl?udio Mois?s Santos e |
| Publisher | Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, PROGRAMA DE P?S-GRADUA??O EM CI?NCIAS CLIM?TICAS, UFRN, Brasil |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Source | reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRN, instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, instacron:UFRN |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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