In this master thesis project, four well known time series forecasting models areconstructed and tuned with the purpose of predicting the future consumption of glueon one of AkzoNobels customers production lines. The goal was to examine thepossibility of utilizing their vastly collected data with these models to improve on theinventory management for both AkzoNobel and their customers. The predictedproduct usage rate would aid in the customers' decision making about when neworders of product should be placed, based on when the current storage tanks areforecasted to be emptied. This information could also be useful for AkzoNobelthemselves. The data that is handled in this project is a time series with timestampsfor every glue consumption process on the customers production line since 2017. Asubgoal was to determine what data resolution would be the most effective formodelling, so each model has two versions, one using higher and one using lowerresolution data. The models that are examined are a seasonal naive model,along-short term memory model, a Facebook Prophet model as well as two separateAutoregressive Integrated Moving Average models, specifically one automaticallyandone manually constructed. Beyond these models, a combined model using trueaveraging of the two automatic ARIMA models was examined as well. Ultimately it was found that, for most models, forecasting ahead with a one day resolution was the most accurate using the models trained on one-day-separated-data, compared to three-hour-separated-data. Further it is presented that the best models are the two naive models, closely followed by the one-day-case automatic ARIMA and Prophet models. These models also performed similarly on simple tests for predicting a date when a tank will be empty. Mostly differing around four days on average from the true date for an empty tank on those tests, with a max forecast range of forty days. It is concluded that it is possible to sufficiently model the data to a point where the best models in this project could be an effective tool for both the AkzoNobel and its customers.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:uu-451064 |
| Date | January 2021 |
| Creators | Arvidsson, Edvin |
| Publisher | Uppsala universitet, Avdelningen för systemteknik |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Relation | UPTEC F, 1401-5757 ; 21054 |
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